LIQUID SUNSHINE

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Paul Tallet
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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ...17TH MAY 2015

Abnormally hot weather in southern Europe is due to Low pressure over the Saharan Desert. This is also blowing very dense Saharan Dust across the Atlantic. This was a strong feature of the Caribbean weather in recent weeks and the main cause for the lack of rain which is now badly needed in many eastern and southern Caribbean Islands.

The Saharan Dust's journey is now being disrupted by Low Pressure in the Atlantic and, consequently, this is reducing it's impact in the Caribbean.

Add to this a persistent area of Low pressure over northern Columbia and Venezuela trying to move north against a stubborn High and we have steep pressure gradients bringing strong winds to the southern Caribbean.

So this week, showers will readily form widely across the southern and eastern Caribbean, particularly during the afternoons and overnight into the early hours of the morning. Not all Islands will benefit from this rain which will be very localised.

Meanwhile, last week there were reports of a strong El Nino event developing later this year and into 2016 which is an indication of drier weather in the Caribbean and less in the way of Hurricane development ... we will see !!

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 25TH MAY 2015

This week is more or less in line with last week's forecast.

The Low Pressure over South America is nudging a little further north at times and this brings higher risks of rain for the southern Caribbean, plus strong winds that will bring heavy seas in some areas.

A Tropical Wave is making it's way across the Atlantic and this should arrive by Thursday with the potential to invigorate any areas of moisture moving north into the Caribbean Sea.

In some ways it appears that a transition is taking place as we approach June and the official start of the Hurricane Season but no, not with the strong winds ... it should be much calmer like it was a couple of weeks ago.

On the other hand, we had Tropical Storm Ana a few weeks ago off the coast of Florida which was a very unusual event at this time of year.

Unusually too, it was also extremely hot in southern Europe, it has been quite cold in the UK and, as mentioned last week, an El Nino event is developing ... this can turn normal weather on it's head so for the longer term ahead to the end of 2015 and into 2016, forget the seasons and expect a few surprises.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ...31ST MAY 2015

As predicted last week, the first significant Tropical Wave passed over Tobago on Thursday. The weather started deteriorating on Wednesday and rain has been the main feature up until today although the rain is more intermittent now.

Almost the whole of the Caribbean has been affected by this Wave as it moves west.

Improved conditions for Monday and Tuesday although the trades will be strong and then another Tropical Wave arrives by Wednesday ... there is not as much rain yet associated with this next Wave but the risk of rain increases as it approaches the Caribbean.

So a potentially wet day on Wednesday/Thursday.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 8TH JUNE 2015

I have had a busy weekend so apologies for the late post.

The weather is fine in Tobago with plenty of Saharan Dust restricting the development of rain clouds.

However there are 2 Tropical Waves on the way. Both have rain associated with them, particularly the 2nd Wave.

So ... late Tuesday and Friday look like having the highest risk of rain.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 14TH JUNE 2015

Quite an active week for the Caribbean coming up ... it just depends where you are.

The Gulf of Mexico has a potential Storm brewing although it looks like the south coasts of Texas and Louisiana will take the brunt with heavy rains.

2 Tropical Waves are moving into the south east Caribbean and bringing scattered showers to Trini and Tobago. This could last a couple of days.

A strong plume of Saharan Dust is moving off the west coast of Africa so this should reduce rainfall in the Caribbean from mid-week up to the weekend when a rather strong looking Tropical Wave could arrive.

Hopefully I can update on this nearer or during next weekend.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 21ST JUNE 2015

Plenty of needed rain fell over Trinidad & Tobago early last week as I expected but a bit more than I thought judging from the photos of flooding in Trinidad I have seen.

Also, as predicted, there has been a short break as Saharan Dust filled the atmosphere over the eastern Caribbean and that break is about to end with the 'strong' Tropical Wave I referred to last week just 24 - 36 hours away from Tobago.

This wave has struggled against the Saharan influence although I have seen all week that it has cut into the Dust and this cut is widening as the Wave approaches the Caribbean. There is now some rainfall associated with this Wave and it could bring the next period of significant rainfall to Trinidad & Tobago over Sunday night and Monday.

After that, another Tropical Wave is chugging it's way about 2 days behind the first Wave so after a possible lull on Tuesday the rainfall risks increase again by Wednesday.

Please note, however, that the Saharan Dust influence is not far away and while the trades stay strong all the way from North Africa the is a small chance that rainfall could be restricted by this dry air ... I wouldn't bet on it though!

So ... for Tobago, a changeable week ahead.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 28TH JUNE 2015

The rain last week turned out to be a minor event as most of the heaviest rain fell north of Tobago.

Right now, today, a Tropical Wave has passed Tobago and left scattered showers in it's wake. Another Tropical Wave is on it's way and it should arrive by Tuesday. This wave is fairly strong and resisting the Saharan Dust influence so I would expect the risk of rain to increase mid-week.

The general situation for the Caribbean is unsettled with high winds across all areas. This is causing high waves of up to 20 feet in some areas but Tobago is the least affected with waves of about 6 or 7 feet on average and the wave heights should gradually decline towards the end of the week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 6TH JULY 2015

There are 2 Tropical Waves that will pass Tobago over the next 24 - 36 hours.

Currently,Tobago is experiencing alot of intermittent rainfall and this could intensify after the first Wave because there is alot of moisture inbetween these Tropical Waves.

So, high risk of rainfall through to late Tuesday/early Wednesday.

After this, drier air looks set to take over and reduce the risk of rainfall and this looks like fine weather is most likely towards the end of the week and into next weekend.

Strong trade winds are affecting much of the Caribbean and bringing high seas to many central areas of the Caribbean but I don't believe, from what I can see, that these types of conditions are affecting Tobago to a large degree.

Hurricane Season? ... well, apart from a very early skirmish off Florida and a short-lived development in the Gulf of Mexico, there is little sign of anything serious and the sea surface temperatures appear to be lower than normal in the Caribbean ... but don't count your chickens because there are 4 months left until the end of the Hurricane Season.

Meanwhile, in the Pacific, it is very active with 5 Storms of varying intensity ... El Nino?

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 12TH JULY 2015

Well, it is looking like a proper wet season.

Last week's rain eased off a little later than I expected and it brought some moderate flooding to southern Trinidad. I think the best day of weather was on Friday.

Alot of moisture is still around with some heavy rain throughout most of the central Caribbean and close to the North of Tobago.

More rain is on the way this week with 2 more Tropical Waves dragging moisture up from the ITCZ. The first one should arrive by Monday and the next by Wednesday ... it looks like a repeat of last week.

Otherwise, no sinister storm development to report.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 18TH JULY 2015

Sunshine and plenty of showers is the general situation this weekend.

Into the week there is a strong Tropical Wave approaching for Tuesday/Wednesday. A small Depression has formed along this Wave and the NHC is monitoring it for development.

I doubt very much that conditions will be right for development of this Depression although it has the potential to bring some widespread rainfall to the eastern Caribbean ... future development, if it occurs, is more likely to manifest itself over the warmer central Caribbean Sea ... also, the Depression itself could spin more to the North and become a feature along the US east coast.

So, Tobago can expect some unsettled weather midweek and another strong Tropical Wave should reach the Caribbean by next weekend.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 26TH JULY 2015

Fair weather dominates all of the Caribbean except for the Gulf of Mexico.

2 reasons; the ITCZ has gone south and Saharan Dust is plentiful.

For the week ahead there are 2 Tropical Waves. The first one looks weak and there is little rainfall associated with it due to the Saharan factor.

The second one should arrive towards the end of the week and it has formed a small depression however, the conditions in the Tropical Atlantic are currently a graveyard for anything that comes close to storm development, so no worries there.

The fair weather should continue through to the end of the week with the possibility of more showers on maybe Tuesday when the first Tropical Wave arrives.

When the weather is fine at this time of year I find that it is the best of the whole year ... enjoy.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 2ND AUGUST 2015

Well fancy that ... I threw a Garden (Barbecue) Party today as a kind of house warming for the few neighbours that live within a mile ... I got it right with the weather and there was even a sunny spell which I am still recovering from ... such is the appalling weather in the UK this summer.

And this thing flew in ... it sounded like a humming bird and it looked like a humming bird ... and it fed from the Buddleas just as a humming bird would ... after much frantic photography we googled 'looks like a humming bird' and it turns out to be a Humming Bird Hawk Moth ... a rare creature that has been visiting the UK from Africa in recent years.

Sorry, I had to share that because it reminded me of Tobago and it made my day :mrgreen:

Anyway ... back on topic, the weather ...

It is reasonably calm in Tobago but don't get too excited because the calmness is due to the ITCZ being right over Tobago.

ITCZ = Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone ... this is a permanent area of low pressure that hangs around the equator right round the whole world and it is seasonally correct that it should be over Tobago at this time of year because it is the wet season.

So, the ITCZ brings calm but it can also bring rain and Thunderstorms can spring up out of the blue, particularly during the afternoons and overnight. So there is a good chance of some rain at some point (or points) this week and the highest risk of rain will come around Wednesday when a Tropical Wave arrives.

The NHC and other predictors were getting a little excited about this Tropical Wave until yesterday because it had a circulating Depression on it ... there was no way it could develop ... but it is a strong Wave and this, combined with the ITCZ, should bring heavy rains to the Caribbean from Wednesday (ish) this week ... Islands to the north of Tobago really need this rain so hopefully this is what they have been waiting for.

Enjoy the first half of the week ...

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 9TH AUGUST 2015

El Nino ... this phenomenon is bringing a very lively Typhoon/Hurricane Season to the Pacific as, no doubt, you will have seen in media reports from Taiwan, China, Japan and Hawaii over the last few weeks.

A strong El Nino also has the effect of reducing Storm activity and/or development in the Tropical Atlantic.

Last week, I was expecting a decent amount of much needed rain to the Caribbean by midweek but not even a Tropical Wave seems to be able to cross the Atlantic without being sheared away by hostile conditions ... the few (weak) storms to develop so far have been way to the north of the Caribbean or off the east coast of Florida.

This week looks even more unusual because, although the ITCZ is still more or less in the same position as last week, the Saharan Dust influence has chopped straight through the ITCZ and progressed into the southern hemisphere.

The best chance of rain can only come from the south of Tobago from South America where violent thunderstorms are developing widely on a daily basis.

So ... showers mostly at night and if there is any persistent rain, it will be a plume of thundery activity from Venezuela.

I can't see any sinister weather developments for at least a week even though 3 Tropical Waves are on their way.

Oh ... and an update on last week's Humming Bird Hawk Moth ... there are now 3 of these fascinating creatures visiting my garden and feasting on my buddleas every day ... about tea-time :mrgreen:


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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ...16TH AUGUST 2015

The weather has looked good over the last week with some short periods of rain and it is set to continue to be fine for most of the coming week.

The first rain risk arrives on Tuesday as a Tropical Wave passes over Tobago.

Towards the end of the week the Caribbean could be dealing with 'Danny' which is expected to be the first significant Storm of this year's Hurricane Season ... (see 2015 Hurricane Season).

Currently, Tobago is unlikely to experience any direct or indirect impact from Danny although it remains to be seen if the system can wrench itself from the ITCZ as it is currently moving west at a very low latitude.

Please follow updates in the 2015 Hurricane section.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 23RD AUGUST 2015

The weather is going to be very unpredictable this week.

When Hurricanes form they greedily wrap up all the moisture around them. This tends to improve the weather away from the Storm. We have a similar situation with weakening Tropical Storm Danny.

However, Danny has often struggled to break free from the ITCZ and, as with many Storms, this can cause a kink in the ITCZ and bring potentially wet conditions to areas under the ITCZ. In Tobago's case this can often drag plumes of moisture from South America and that often means rain.

However, another Storm (Erika) is winding up in the mid-Atlantic in an almost repeat performance of Danny ... I will be commenting on potential Erika in the 2015 Hurricane thread from tomorrow.

So, for the week ahead it looks calm but with high levels of humidity. Hot weather but with a constant risk of sudden rainfall here and there.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 31ST AUGUST 2015

We now start the peak of the Hurricane Season and the last couple of weeks have seen an increase in activity with Tropical Storms Danny, Erika and now Hurricane Fred that is giving the Cape Verde Islands a taste of a hurricane for the first time in recorded history.

Due to el nino, the Caribbean is currently a hostile environment for developing Tropical Storms as the demise of Danny and Erika shows. Hurricane Fred is not expected to go anywhere near the Caribbean but Erika remains a rain-laden open Tropical Wave in the northern Caribbean.

In the southern and eastern Caribbean the weather has been more settled and is likely to continue this way for this week with the exception that showery activity will increase over Tobago for the next 24 hours as a weak Tropical Wave passes through.

Please refer to the 2015 Hurricane thread for updates on Tropical Storm developments as they occur.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER UPDATE ... 31ST AUGUST 2015

A brief follow-up to my earlier post ...

There is a small depression just developed along the ITCZ at 55 degrees west. This could bring a spell of rain for Tobago by Wednesday.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 5TH SEPTEMBER 2015

The weather is becoming increasingly hard to predict.

So far, this wet season there has been very little rain in the Caribbean and the conditions are not good for Tropical Waves and Storms ... only one significant system has made it into the northern Caribbean, Erika, and this Storm was quickly broken up although it did produce life threatening rainfall with fatalities recorded in Dominica.

Last week I was watching a small depression running along the ITCZ but it came to nothing and was snuffed out long before it reached the Caribbean.

This is unusual and I guess it is due to the very strong 'el nino' that is starting to peak in the Pacific Ocean.

Hopefully rain will come because many Islands need rain quite desperately but I hope it is not too much in too short a space of time.

The week ahead for Tobago looks fair. There is a small risk of rain from the south as low pressure builds over South America. Towards next weekend there are signs that a strong Tropical Wave will arrive but whether it carries much rain is a matter to assess nearer the time.

See the 2015 Hurricane for details of Storm developments this week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 12TH SEPTEMBER 2015

Tobago has had a fairly rainy week as the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace opened up into a Tropical Wave and dumped widespread rain over the Windward Islands.

Tobago appears to have seen the last of this rain although it is still raining over the Islands to the north.

But it is not over, the ITCZ is very active and there is a trail of disturbed weather all along the ITCZ back to Africa with a couple of Tropical Waves mixed in for good measure.

So the week ahead is very changeable and Tobago should expect to see plenty of rainfall periods throughout the rest of the week ... some sun in between of course.

A new Tropical Wave is starting to spin off the coast of Africa and I will be posting updates on this in the 2015 Hurricane section.

In this section, my most recent post covers the record El Nino and the effects this could have on the Caribbean's weather over the next 6 months.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 21ST SEPTEMBER 2015

Just got back from a rather heavy Stag Weekend so sorry I am late.

A quick glance shows me that the weather is very calm, hot and humid in most regions of the Caribbean.

Storm threats are minimal with Tropical Storm Ida coming to a halt in the mid Atlantic.

As far as Tobago is concerned it looks like a hot week with high humidity levels and, of course, high humidity can bring outbreaks of heavy and thundery rain very randomly and without much warning ... so when the sun is out it will be lovely and when it rains it will be lovely and wet ...

... enjoy the calm and the flat sea.

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