LIQUID SUNSHINE

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 7TH FEBRUARY 2016

The general situation across the Caribbean is low pressure to the north and higher pressure to the south with the Atlantic High, again this week, displaced to the east of the Atlantic, breaking up the Saharan influence.

The Low pressure to the north is centred just off the east coast of Florida and I expect this to move away to the north east, allowing high pressure to build across the Caribbean again.

Locally, the low pressure has caused problems for the northern Caribbean holiday destinations over the last 2 weeks while the southern Caribbean has enjoyed the best weather, although a trough of rain and cloud from this depression flicked southwards bringing some rain and cloud to Tobago and the south eastern Caribbean late last week.

For the week ahead, the conditions have already improved over the northern Caribbean, with the High pressure building across the Caribbean. This could cause strong trade winds in places as the pressure gradients tighten against the perpetual Low pressure over South America.

For Tobago and the southern Caribbean it will, of course, be sunny and with showers as is expected at this time of year but there is a higher risk of more frequent showers and cloudiness due the the absence of the Saharan Dust which will take time to re-assert it's influence.

The moderate sea conditions look steady for the week with only minor short-term fluctuations and this varies depending on what beaches you visit.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 14TH FEBRUARY 2016

The situation this weekend is pretty much identical to last weekend with High pressure displaced to the north and east and another unseasonal area of low pressure to the northern Caribbean bringing cloudy and rain bearing troughs down south but not quite as far as Tobago.

As far as Tobago is concerned, the weather should be fair but sometimes a little cloudy with occasional showers.

The sea state looks a little on the heavy side with 8 - 10 feet swells never far away.

So this week, again, Tobago can expect the best of the weather of the Caribbean, even if it rains a bit.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 20TH FEBRUARY 2016

For the 3rd consecutive week there is a north/south split in the weather conditions of the Caribbean.

The Atlantic High is also still displaced from it's usual central position in the Atlantic as a series of depressions bring weather troughs across the northern Caribbean bringing rain and cloudiness.

This also brings colder air to the northern Caribbean.

The southern Caribbean is enjoying the best weather although there is some general cloudiness and light rain from time to time.

Due to the unusual weather activity to the north the pressure gradients occasionally tighten and bring strong trade winds, picking up the seas swells in some areas, particularly to the west near Columbia.

So this week, Tobago can look forward to more of the same fair weather with occasional cloudy spells that, at times, will bring light to moderate rain. The sea conditions are moderate and look like getting fairly heavy during the middle part of this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 28TH FEBRUARY 2016

For the 4th week in succession there is a north/south split in the Caribbean Weather.

A weather trough extends from the south west corner of the Caribbean right across Haiti through Florida and out into the Atlantic.

North of this weather trough is the unsettled weather and south of this trough is the finer weather.

So the weather for Tobago is pretty much the same as last week with fine weather but the occasional cloudiness that could be thick enough to drop a little rain.

Seas look moderate and steady for the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 5TH MARCH 2016

I am feeling like a broken record as we enter a 5th consecutive week where unsettled weather affects the northern Caribbean and finer weather affects the Southern Caribbean.

But it's not always good news when the Atlantic High is displaced because the less influence from the High the higher the change of experiencing cloudiness and some rain pluming up from the perpetual Low Pressure over South America ... this is a common curse for T&T and the Dutch Antilles due to their proximity to this landmass.

Last week saw cloud and mostly light rain affect Tobago in mid-week.

So it can happen again and is very difficult to predict, but otherwise Tobago should expect fair weather this week.

The sea is moderate but there are signs that some larger swells could develop in midweek as weather fronts and pressure gradients to the north generate windy conditions, pushing swells southwards over the Windward Islands.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 13TH MARCH 2016

Last week, the weather front bringing unsettled weather to the northern Caribbean moved south and brought unsettled weather to the southern Caribbean. It didn't actually reach the south but it supported a plume of rain and cloud from South America and this is the reason behind unsettled weather Tobago experienced late last week, particularly on Friday.

This weather has now moved away into the Tropical Atlantic, leaving very clear conditions over most of the Caribbean.

The Atlantic High is still displaced from it's usual position and there is currently little in the way of Saharan influence which restricts cloud and rain development, but High pressure is now building from the northern Caribbean.

The weather is also very calm but, as the High builds, pressure gradients could tighten a little - particularly during the 2nd half of this week - bringing the potential for heavier sea swells.

So, fine clear weather but with lots of localised showers.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 20TH MARCH 2016

The Atlantic High is returning to it's normal position although there is still unsettled weather in the North and North West of the Caribbean bring clouding and rain to this area (north of Jamaica).

To the south a more typical pattern of weather has become established bringing sunshine and showers with moderate trade winds.

The Atlantic High is also bringing dense Saharan dust to the southern Caribbean.

Therefore, this week Tobago should expect a good deal of sunshine and occasional showers. Sea swells will be moderate which could make the sea a little cloudy in some beaches.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 28TH MARCH 2016

The week for this week is looking very unpredictable for Tobago.

Currently, the weather is fair across the central and southern parts of the Caribbean. To the far north (Cuba northwards) the weather remains unsettled as it has been for most of the current dry season.

To the extreme south east of the Caribbean (Trinidad & Tobago) rain is not far away as Low Pressure builds and a plume of rain and cloud is spreading north east, just grazing the southern coast of Trinidad.

So it is currently a matter of whether the plume of cloud and rain nudges a little further north. If it does ... Rain. If it doesn't ... happy days.

The trades are also picking up across the Caribbean with heavy seas in many areas, however the trades over Tobago are not as high with moderate seas expected for most of this week.

So, the risk of rain is high for the first part of this week and the risk decreases towards the end of the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 3RD APRIL 2016

Last week's rain originated from the perpetual low pressure over the South American mainland. It was quite a strong plume because it has reached the mid-Atlantic without dissipating as the High Pressure has done little to snuff it out ... the lack of Saharan Dust also being a factor.

This week it is looking very unsettled for the northern Caribbean (Cuba northwards) which has been cursed by a succession of depressions and frontal troughs for 6 weeks or so.

South of this, the Caribbean is looking fine and this week should be a 'normal' dry season week with sunshine and showers, although there is always the risk of moisture pluming north around the southern extreme of the Caribbean.

This is where Tobago is so expect sunshine and showers and a 40% risk of more persistent rain and cloudiness.

The sea is moderate and it looks to me that it could become calm towards the end of the week ... early days!

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 10TH APRIL 2016

This week should continue the theme of last week with a north/south split in the Caribbean weather.

The Atlantic High is back in business bringing trades and Saharan Dust from the east and this is benefiting the southern Caribbean, but the northern Caribbean is still experiencing cloud and rain from time to time.

Tobago can expect sunshine and showers although I notice there is some cloud and possibly light rain affecting the south east Caribbean areas.

There is also the continuing risk of more general rain pluming north from South America and this is always close and currently affecting the Dutch Antilles.

So, sunshine, showers, occasional cloudiness and a 40% risk of more general rain for Tobago this week. The seas are moderate and this looks like remaining so for the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 17TH APRIL 2016

The Caribbean is still maintaining a north / south split with generally unsettled weather north of Cuba and more settled weather to the south, however, most of the south east Caribbean (including the Windwards) suffered from that South American curse as low pressure pushed a large plume of cloud and rain northwards with many areas affected from last Wednesday onwards ... I gave a 40% risk of this happening.

This plume of wet weather is breaking up and drifting west and it may take a day or so to completely dissipate.

Elsewhere, looking for other influences, the Atlantic High has, again, been displaced by the trail of depressions that are moving from west to east across the northern Caribbean and into the sub-tropical Atlantic. But the high pressure is starting to build again and has started to drag some Saharan Dust from northern Africa about halfway across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean.

So the likely forecast for Tobago is to maintain a moderate risk of rain (50%) up until about Tuesday after which the building Atlantic High should bring stronger trade winds and drier air, restricting rainfall to showers.

The seas are currently calm to moderate but the swells should pick up as the trade winds increase bringing moderate seas towards the end of this week and, no doubt, some highly charged wind-surfing conditions to Buccoo.

Enjoy.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 24TH APRIL 2016

It's complicated ...

Tobago has had a week of intermittent rain and cloudiness which I expected to clear away by Tuesday ... it did, but I don't think anyone expected the weather front, that has cursed the northern Caribbean for several weeks, to become stationary from the east of Cuba and right across the Atlantic to near the Canary Islands.

The front marks the line between the warm tropical air and cooler conditions being driven down from the north. Quite naturally, it rains where the 2 contrasts meet and there has been plenty of rain although most of it has fallen over the sea.

The weather front has hardly moved and it has had indirect impacts on the southern Caribbean, weakening the Higher pressure and allowing the humidity over the South American landmass to plume northwards and creating a west to east direction in the weather to the extent that the moisture from the south has merged with the weather front, providing additional energy.

Tobago has not had the worst of the rain, in fact there has actually been some good sunshine for Tobago but in many areas along the southern Caribbean it has been a deluge.

So the week ahead ... the southern Caribbean is still under low pressure and this keeps the risk of persistent rain very high (about 70%) ... some areas will escape this but the low pressure will allow clouds to form readily bringing frequent showers.

When I say persistent rain I mean rainfall of more than 1 hour at a time.

There is no indication that this weather pattern is changing but I will post a mid-week update should a change appear likely.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

MIDWEEK UPDATE ... 27TH APRIL 2016

I am pleased to see that the dominant feature of last week's weather is having a reducing impact on the weather for the southern Caribbean.

A deep depression has formed along the frontal system and this should carry the bad weather into the central and, eventually, northern Atlantic.

Tobago has still had some general rain today but the trend is becoming positive for the rest of this week and into next weekend.

So, Tobago can expect a gradual improvement in the weather with less rain but still showers although such showers should be brief (up to 1 hour).

As the Atlantic High rebuilds then the risks of thundery rain from the South American landmass will be reduced as drier conditions set in.

But the nagging risk of rainfall is still there ... I rate this risk as 30%.

Next update at the weekend as normal.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 2ND MAY 2016

Well ... I didn't expect the Atlantic High to pack it's bags and head off to another part of the world.

The Tropical Atlantic's permanent resident has gone and Low Pressure made a big come-back on Thursday which is quite rare.

2 Depressions are crossing the Atlantic from west to east and drawing heavy moisture northwards from South America's perpetual low pressure, creating a wide swathe of cloud and persistent rain and some thunderstorms across the south east Caribbean, through the Windwards and way out into the Atlantic.

For those seeking sunshine in Tobago, this is not a good time and this weather pattern looks like it has bedded in and may not shift for several days. There may be some breaks with sunshine but the risk of rainfall is very high ... 80%.

To get the weather back to normal the Atlantic High needs to return and I cannot see it rebuilding for at least 3 days.

Enjoy your holidays !

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 8TH MAY 2016

Tobago seems to have had some good weather over the last 3 - 4 days following a prolonged period of wet and unsettled weather on and off over the previous 2 weeks.

The Atlantic High went completely missing last week but now it is back although it is currently situated too far to the North to have a major influence in the Caribbean. It should come south as it is squeezed by an unseasonal depression over south west Europe and yet another frontal trough moving eastwards through the centre of the Caribbean.

The frontal trough is the main influence for the next 2 - 3 days having already brought rain to many areas of the west and central Caribbean and then bringing a high risk of rain to Tobago and the eastern Caribbean on Monday and Tuesday. Again, this trough is likely to suck moisture northwards from South America and we have seen this already over the last couple of weeks.

High pressure is building behind this trough from the west and this should help suppress any prolonged rainfall after Tuesday, although there is little of the Saharan influence due to the Atlantic High's current northerly position ... as a consequence, frequent showers are likely to form in many parts of the Caribbean during the second half of this week.

Some places could miss showers altogether.

The seas should stay moderate all week but possibly get a little more choppy from the middle of the week if the Atlantic High can get back to business and strengthen the trades.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 15TH MAY 2016

After 3 very unpredictable weeks the general weather across the Caribbean seems to be getting back to normal although we need to remember that the official wet season starts in 2 weeks ... not that I am suggesting that one of Mother Nature's little happy helpers is going to switch the waterworks on first thing in the morning on 1st June.

The wet season is gearing up with bright echoes on the radar forming over central Africa and soon the procession of Tropical Waves will be marching across the Tropical Atlantic, some bringing rain, others a change of wind direction and a few will develop into Tropical Storms ... it is very rare for Tobago to get major Storms because they tend to spin off to the north after formation, but Tobago is in the spawning ground for many Storms that start off as strong Tropical Waves or Depressions that move on to cause havoc elsewhere in the Caribbean.

Having said that, the best trip I have ever had to Tobago was in June/July and the weather was brilliant.

So this week ... the Atlantic High is rebuilding but not enough to stop these rogue areas of quite heavy rainfall pluming off the South American Mainland. Southern Trinidad is at most risk being closest to the source (and it's raining there now), however this weather can push north to cover most of the Windwards and the Dutch Antilles from time to time and I believe that is what will happen this week.

So if it's short sharp showers no problem. If it rains for more than an hour it could be half a day or a day. As this week progresses the risk of rain should ease off providing the Atlantic High builds more to the south. If this happens, the dry Saharan air will return.

Seas look to be moderate all week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 22ND MAY 2016

As I feared, last week was rather wet for Tobago and the rain was heavy at times, particularly from Friday and there are still areas of rain around the south east Caribbean that I expect will clear away tonight.

The source of this weather is South America and the cause of this weather is a weak Atlantic High, allowing moisture to plume northwards and over the Caribbean, often producing persistent rain.

This week the weather is changing direction ... it will be coming from the East as we welcome the first 2 Tropical Waves heralding a change from the dry (?) season to the wet (?) season ... it's not one of Mother Nature's little happy helpers pulling a lever but the existence of Tropical Waves trundling across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean are the distinction between the wet and the dry ... it is not necessarily wetter in the wet season but perhaps it should be termed the Hurricane season because most Hurricanes spawn from Tropical Waves.

Back to Tobago ... the Atlantic High is now strengthening and a consequence of this is faster trade winds carrying lighter moisture levels. The first Tropical Wave is mostly over Venezuela and unlikely to produce much other than a small boost to the trades behind it. This Wave should pass by tomorrow (Monday).

The next Tropical Wave should arrive by Wednesday. Again, little moisture associated with it but the passing of the Wave could set off a few longer showers and possibly brief squally conditions.

Around these Waves, the weather should be fine with occasional showers although the sea conditions could get a little choppy as the trades increase over the course of the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 30TH MAY 2016

Only 28 hours until the start of the 'wet/hurricane' season and if you are anywhere in the Caribbean today and did not have a spot of rain then enjoy your uniqueness.

Last week ... generally, most areas of the Caribbean enjoyed decent weather for the first part of the week but then it went downhill ...

... in the southern Caribbean, the 2nd Tropical Wave I was reporting on last week brought a little moisture but it provided another opportunity for the bad weather from the south to plume northwards and impacting all of the south and east Caribbean.

In the North, low pressure developed and a small depression off the Bahamas developed briefly into a Tropical Storm (Bonnie) that is now bothering the east coast of the US.

So ... right now, the Caribbean is under heavy moisture with frequent and heavy showers or longer periods of rain.

The Atlantic High is still in place and there is a trail of strong Saharan Dust making it's way across the Tropical Atlantic. There are also Tropical Waves on the way that are not affected by the Saharan factor which is too far north to have an impact.

It is very unpredictable but I have high confidence that Tobago is in for a wet week. There will be some good breaks from the rain from time to time and possibly some sunshine ... I would take each day as it comes.

The sea should be moderate all week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 5TH JUNE 2016

My earlier post in '2016 Hurricane Season' sums it up.

The weather in Tobago and most of the eastern Caribbean is deteriorating rapidly as a very moist Tropical Wave moves in.

The rainfall will be heavy at times and I expect it to last about 48 hours which could bring flooding to some areas.

Weather conditions at the start of this 'wet' season are exceptionally volatile and it is difficult to predict the situation from Tuesday onwards.

That means you might be treated to an update midweek ... stay tuned.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER - MID WEEK UPDATE - 8TH JUNE 2016

As expected, lots of rain has fallen over the eastern Caribbean while media attention has been focused on Tropical Storm Colin dropping rain over Florida.

The conditions have been improving today as most of the rain has passed but don't rule out the odd deluge here and there in the next 12 hours.

Sunshine and showers will return to Tobago and this should last until the weekend when another Tropical Wave will arrive, again laden with Tropical moisture.

So, for Tobago, I reckon Thursday and Friday should be OK and possibly some of Saturday before the weather deteriorates as the next Wave moves in, but there could be some heavy showers here and there.

Regards