I am now monitoring potential 'Ernesto' hourly as this developing disturbance maintains it's westerly track towards the Lesser Antilles.
The NHC has raised the stakes, predicting a 50% chance that Ernesto could form within 48 hours and the consensus of all the (increasingly reliable) weather models takes the track straight over Tobago (this could change).
We can only hope that the track changes otherwise the consequences for Tobago could be quite unpleasant this weekend (even if development into a Tropical Storm does not occur) ... there is still considerable uncertainty as to when development into a Tropical Storm or Hurricane will occur and it looks like a very close call for Tobago.
In view of this, my advice is to assume the worst and hope for the best and I strongly recommend Tobago prepares for severe weather this weekend and bring the fishing boats in.
Based on the current situation, rain will start to affect Tobago and the other Islands on the Leeward side late tonight and early tomorrow. Any stormy conditions are likely to arrive about 24 hours later (Friday).
I am keeping my fingers crossed that the track changes or a miraculous burst of dry air snuffs this potential problem out.
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