2012 Hurricane Season

[Andy K]

Flood in Diego Martin

[Paul Tallet]

Sorry to see that Andy ... I hope that's not your driveway.

It seems that TD 7 did open up into a Tropical Wave as speculated in my last post ... there is still some rain around mostly over Trinidad and the worst of it has moved on to the west.

The other 'blob' near Cape Verde is less of a threat to anywhere.

Hopefully thing will quieten down this week but there is alot of moisture around so expect more showery conditions this week.

Regards

[Andy K]

Fortunately, it is not my driveway, Paul.
Both my homes in Trinidad and Tobago are safe from floods

Today the weather in Tobago is partly cloudy and sunny with a good easterly breeze.

[Paul Tallet]

INVEST 94

The first major threat to the Caribbean is on the way and expected to affect the northern Windwards Islands by Wednesday or Thursday.

Tobago is safe from direct impact but there is likely to be some indirect heavy rainfall impacts over a wide area as Invest 94 carries alot of moisture.

Predictions range from a Tropical Storm to Cat 3 Hurricane strength.

There is potential for some rainfall for Tobago by Wednesday but the winds will be elsewhere to the north.

Another Wave follows behind but this looks to be a weaker affair.

Hurricane Gordon has given the Azores some grief but is now downgraded to a Tropical Storm and should not pose a problem for Europe.

It looks like the 2012 season is getting it's act together.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

ISAAC

It seems certain that Tropical Depression 9 will become TS Isaac as it bears down on the Windward Islands ... in fact, this could become a Hurricane as it passes through the Islands and churns into the Caribbean Sea.

The windfield is relatively small but the moisture covers an expansive area, particularly to the south and east of the centre.

There is alot of thunderstorm activity and if Isaac successfully wraps all this activity up then he will be a rather large storm.

It is not just the Islands north of Barbados that should watch this Storm ... Barbados, Grenada, Trinidad & Tobago and even parts of Venezuela should be prepared for significant rainfall from Wednesday for at least 48 hours.

Haiti is a particular worry further on ... Isaac is a very dangerous system.

Regards

[Gaby]

Any ideas as to what I can expect (er apart from 7in of rain). Having been reading varying reports and decided that you have to be THE weather guru therefore if anyone can tell me it is you.

By the way, are you the Paul who with James took me to see those amazing fire flies by the turning to Englishman's Bay a few years ago - still remember what an awesome experience it was,

[Paul Tallet]

EVERYONE READY?

Hi Gaby

Yes I was ... We remember you and the experience and hope you are doing well and continuing your therapy in Tobago.

Isaac's rains are now affecting most of the Windward Islands. The Storm centre will be well to the north of Tobago so it is significant rainfall for a couple of days although there could be squally conditions here and there.

The main areas of concern are through the central and northern Windwards as there is some margin of error as to where the stormiest conditions will track.

But the rain for Tobago could cause problems too, especially Trinidad where there has already been flooding in recent weeks.

Regards

[Andy K]

It started to rain in Tobago earlier this morning. Nothing major yet, but it will come for sure.
I checked my drainage, fixed my generator and filled my gasoline tanks, as the electricity here
goes on a regular basis under heavy weather conditions. Let's see what the next two days will
look like. Certainly not like going to the beach.

As for Trinidad, i sincerely hope i will not have to copy pictures like the one above to this forum.

[Paul Tallet]

ISAAC

I have just looked at the sat loops and the rainfall over Trinidad & Tobago looks quite phenomenal (not to mention other areas).

Any news from Tobago?

Regards

[Caz Booker]

We're at Pleasant Prospect and it was mostly good yesterday other than a couple of early showers. Think it's been raining through the night though, had thunder about 1.30am and now it's coming down pretty heavy.

[Andy K]

Weather radar Barbados 7 a.m. ..... more than enough rain for Trinidad and Tobago !

[Andy K]

Paul, you will know how to read the picture above.

For everybody else: Dark-rainy-stay-in-bed-and-sleep-weather in Tobago today.

[Paul Tallet]

Hmmm ... as Isaac moves west he is going to pull this rainband over Tobago back again so it looks like you are going to get 2 doses of it unless it weakens which I think is unlikely bearing in mind the amount of moisture Isaac is generating in the Caribbean.

Conditions are improving to the north as Isaac moves on but Trinidad & Tobago have had their fair share of rain from Isaac which only proves that a Storm does not have to give you a direct hit to have an impact on you.

The next worry is Haiti ... Isaac is forecast to pass right over Haiti this weekend.

Regards

[Caz Booker]

I'm new to all this so how do you think this will affect flights from Tobago to Trini for Friday? Cheers

[Andy K]

Caz,

i hope you already have a ticket for the flight.
The weather should be much improved by friday.

[Caz Booker]

Thanks for that Andy
And yes, tickets are booked already - think we're going the opposite way to everyone else with people coming here for the race.

[Caz Booker]

By the way, it did finally stop raining, just in time for the sun to say a brief "hello" before it went to sleep for the day

[Paul Tallet]

ISAAC

The worst of the rains have gone but there is still plenty of moisture about.

Expect frequent showers for a couple more days in Tobago.

Isaac has moved west but is confounding all the weather models and experts by taking a more southerly track with rain reaching the Dutch Antilles and the north coast of Venezuela.

This could be good for Haiti if Isaac takes a more southerly track because the worst of the rain is on the south side of the Storm.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Isaac and Friends

Isaac has just reached Hurricane strength as he slowly approaches the southern US ... expect major storm surges here.

Isaac has been an unusual Storm, very slow to reach Hurricane status (which is a relief) over a path that could have been highly destructive.

Elsewhere there are 2 developments in the Atlantic. Neither of these look like a threat to the Caribbean so we have a little breather for at least a week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

The UK Met is predicting that Tropical Storm Nadine will bring strong winds and very heavy rain to the south and east UK from Sunday this weekend. Warnings have been issued.

The NHC is predicting the Nadine is going nowhere.

I wonder who will be right?

Regards