LIQUID SUNSHINE

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Paul Tallet
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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 27TH SEPTEMBER 2015

Most of the Caribbean experienced heavy rainfall over the last week but the south eastern, including Tobago, has enjoyed a very fine week of weather.

This looks set to continue this week but there is still a risk of a thunderstorm or prolonged spell of rain anywhere due to the humidity levels.

See the 2015 Hurricane posts for any information on Tropical Storm threats.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 3RD OCTOBER 2015

After a dramatic end to last week's weather the general situation in the Caribbean will take a while to settle down.

Hurricane Joaquin was the main influence last week with a direct attack on the Bahamas and an indirect influence in the weather over most of the Caribbean, particularly the east, peaking yeaterday.

A very strong outflow from the Hurricane streamed southwards across the whole of the Eastern Caribbean and this was pepped up by a plume of low pressure over South America. So a very rainy day.

There is now virtually no dry air or Saharan influence in the Caribbean and this means that the wet season is in full swing.

All areas can expect a good dose of rain from time to time this week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 10TH OCTOBER 2015

Hurricane Joaquin, the most powerful hurricane to affect the Caribbean this year, is now bringing rain and unsettled conditions to Portugal and Spain.

This hurricane had a major influence on last week's weather, even for Tobago, as a strong southerly outflow from the hurricane pushed heavy rain over the whole of the eastern Caribbean.

Since then, a Tropical Wave brought further rain and this has left plenty of moisture around with intermittent periods of rain affecting Tobago and other areas in the eastern Caribbean.

There are 2 more Tropical Waves on the way and high levels of moisture are sandwiched between these Waves.

So ... it looks like being a proper wet season this week with intermittent rainfall between now and Monday when the weather could begin to deteriorate a little further with further rainfall through to Wednesday/Thursday.

The weather should improve towards the end of the week.

There is no sign of any Tropical Storm development all week but watch the 2015 Hurricane posts where I will post any developments.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 18TH OCTOBER 2015

The El Nino effect is strong this year.

Only 2 significant Storms have developed in the Atlantic or Caribbean in this year's Hurricane Season. Sea temperatures are also hotting up and this puts Corals under threat ... The Caribbean needs Storms to churn the waters and allow the cooler water of the deep to rise up ... Hurricane are kind of like cooling systems.

Spare a thought for the record-breaking activity in the Pacific as a Category 5 Typhoon batters Luzon in the Phillipines with the prospect of up to 50 inches over rain over 3 days as the Typhoon moves very slowly and becomes almost stationary.

Back to Tobago, a reasonable last few days of the week and a quiet weekend ... By Tuesday, further rain should affect Tobago as a rather moist Tropical Wave passes through.

After that, back to normal by perhaps Thursday.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 24TH OCTOBER 2015

The rain that has been affecting Tobago over the last few days is now clearing away to the west.

The general situation for this week is 50/50.

I don't see much coming from the east, the Atlantic looks pretty clear so this means good weather with plenty of sunshine and occasional showers.

However there is a persistent risk that cloud and rain could spoil this and this is due to the low pressure to the south over the South American continent. The Atlantic High normally suppresses this but it is weak over the south east Caribbean ... so if there is any persistent rain and cloudy conditions this week then it is due to Low pressure from the south.

It is now about 5 weeks until the official end of the so-called Wet Season. There have been plenty of Tropical Depressions and Storms but only a couple have reached any significant strength so it has been a very quiet season in contrast to the extremely active season in the Pacific ... this is El Nino.

Looking at the Atlantic, there is no sign of anything developing and I could speculate (rather foolishly) that it could be the end of the Hurricane Season.

However, a quiet Hurricane Season to me is a portent of a wetter than normal Dry Season ... El Nino will decide.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER, 1ST NOVEMBER 2015

Rain is currently affecting Tobago today (Sunday) and this should move away later today.

This rain is associated with Low Pressure over South America as was the rain that affected Tobago from time to time last week.

This trend will continue this week. I see a reasonable Monday before the arrival of a Tropical Wave on Tuesday that I believe will increase the risk of rain through to Wednesday. From Thursday onwards it looks OK but with the ongoing possibility that the Lower pressure could allow rain clouds to form.

It is difficult to predict more than a few days at this time of year.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 8TH NOVEMBER 2015

Tobago has had a rather wet week with a combination of a strong Tropical Wave and moisture pluming from the perpetual low pressure over South America ... and there is more rainfall to come.

The Tropical Wave has moved on north westwards and now presents a Storm risk to the Bahamas and Bermuda.

But it is not going to get any better this week with a high risk of rain for Tobago and the rest of the eastern Caribbean as a set of 2 Tropical Waves move in from the east.

The first Wave should pass over Tobago within 24 hours and this will introduce a very moisture laden airflow between this first Wave and the second Wave that is 2 days behind.

As a consequence there is the potential for some very heavy and persistent downpours between Monday and Wednesday this week ... as always, some areas will get more rainfall than others but there is a risk of flooding anywhere in Trinidad and Tobago ... so if you are there, be prepared.

Too early to be sure but I am hoping the weather improves from Thursday onwards.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 15TH NOVEMBER 2015

Thank you Simon for your feedback on last week's weather.

Most of the Caribbean has had very wet weather over the last 2 weeks as we move within 3 weeks of the end of the wet season and onwards into what I sense could be a wetter than average dry season thanks to El Nino.

For now, Tobago is enjoying good weather with occasional showers. Another Tropical Wave is due to arrive late Monday into Tuesday but there is little in the way of moisture with this Wave but it could produce extra showers as the terrain of Tobago pushes the air upwards to form the heavier rain producing clouds.

The Saharan Dust factor is now returning so this is a positive sign for generally good weather beyond this week.

I tend to rate good holiday weather by the number of days of rain. If you have a 2 week holiday and get 2 days of rain then that's a good holiday for Weather. If you get 4 or more days of rain in 2 weeks then you have had a wetter than average holiday whether you are there in the wet or dry season.

Having said that, I have never had a holiday with more than 2 whole days of rain even over 3 or 4 weeks and I have never visited Tobago in November. From my experience over the years it seems to be November when the risks of rain are at their highest and there have been some notable rain events in this month over the years.

Even with good weather there are often showers during the day and these are more common in the early hours before and around dawn during the dry season.

In Tobago, one of the nicest things about the early morning showers is how lush and fresh everything seems when you wake up and accompany your cup of coffee to your balcony (if you have one!) ... a visual feast.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 22ND NOVEMBER 2015

Low pressure has been a strong influence on the Weather across the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic since last Friday, dragging frontal troughs across from the southern US, the north of the Caribbean and this is pushing the Atlantic High to the north and east.

The Low pressure positioned in the mid-Atlantic is picking up the dry Saharan air and taking it north and therefore there is little to prevent moisture building in the tropics and the Caribbean.

So this week, Tobago is likely to see more in the way of showers and a chance of prolonged rain from time to time if low pressure builds from the south.

If the Atlantic High is able to rebuild and take it's normal position it's happy days, but I am not 100% sure of this because the High pressure looks set to stay on a higher latitude, potentially giving the perpetual Low Pressure over the South American mainland the freedom to nudge north.

So, it's 50/50 this week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 29TH NOVEMBER 2015

Tomorrow is the last (official) day of the wet or hurricane season in the Caribbean. And the last few days has seen significant rainfall across most of the Caribbean except for the east. So Tobago should not complain about last week, there were a couple of rainy periods as I predicted but the best of the sunshine has definitely been in Tobago and the Windward Islands.

It would then seem fitting that a Tropical Wave is bringing some showers and thunderstorms for tomorrow although these may just move to the north of Tobago. So there is a medium risk of rainfall for tomorrow and Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday it does appear that the dry season weather should become established with the expected mix of sunshine and showers although the Saharan Dust feature is missing and unlikely to re-establish it's influence for another week but this simply means more showers than usual.

For the longer term ... I will post 2 more weekend weather posts before I predict a distinct improvement in the weather from the 14th December and until the 8th January when the weather posts will be delivered from Castara ... it is soon time for me to leave the inhumane weather conditions of the UK for a bit of warmth and relaxation.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 5TH DECEMBER 2015

The Tropical Wave I mentioned in last week's forecast did produce plenty of rain but it missed Tobago as I thought it might and the rest of the Caribbean has benefited from it's rain.

However, the lack of Saharan Dust influence has allowed more showers to develop. But it's influence is now building from the north east and this should reduce the showers to some extent.

There is now a strong pressure gradient between the Atlantic High and the perpetual South American Low and this will have the effect of increasing the strength of the trade winds.

The consequences of this are heavy seas and shorter showers.

So... this week we can expect quite large waves around the east and Caribbean facing coasts of Tobago and any showers will be sudden but short lived as the trades carry them more swiftly over Tobago.

The Waves should moderate gradually towards next weekend.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 12TH DECEMBER 2015

There has been so much extreme weather (globally) over the last week that I have struggled to keep up with it.

So I will give it a skip because I am packing my bags and arriving in Tobago in less than 54 hours.

The general situation across the Caribbean can be summed up in 2 parts ... the north is being affected by low pressure and the outer bands of rather stormy weather affecting the US.

Then from Puerto Rico southwards is typical dry season weather but there is a small complication with a depression in the Atlantic that is producing quite strong winds. The western side of this depression is pushing swells southwards towards the Caribbean and you know the consequence of this, yes ... a risk of large waves crashing on the beaches.

The Caribbean Ocean is also starting to cool and so the combination of the trade winds and this cooling will make it feel less humid so anyone putting their air-con on is a wuss in my opinion :mrgreen:

For Tobago ... the weather is fine although there have been some showery periods over the last week and this is not unusual. The Saharan influence is strong but it could do with drifting a little further south to directly impact the potential showery activity over Tobago.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 20TH DECEMBER 2015 ... IN CASTARA

Everything is in the right place for typical dry season conditions but there is a bit of a fight going on between the Atlantic High and the South American Low.

This increases the pressure gradients which causes stronger winds and a consequence of this is sea swells although I would say the waves in Castara are moderate right now. I would expect this to increase this week ... as a consequence I have cancelled a boat trip in Charlottesville but I would say it is OK to take a boat trip nearer the south and west of Tobago.

There is also more rain due to the lower pressure allowing more clouds to form and these are carried by the strong trades and producing rain as they meet the higher ground of Tobago. The Saharan influence is very weak over Tobago so there is nothing to reduce the moisture in the atmosphere. It could do with moving a little more south.

But apart from all this there are plenty of lengthy sunny periods. I expect this trend to continue all week ... sunshine and showers.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 27TH DECEMBER 2015

Continuing the theme from last week ... sunshine and showers, but more of the showers this weekend.

One of the conundrums of the alleged dry season is plumes of moisture (or troughs) shooting across the Caribbean from the perpetual Low Pressure over South America.

What started as a band of showers on Thursday at dawn has been producing longer spells of rain and cloudiness over most of the south east Caribbean.

High pressure and Saharan Dust has failed to suppress this band of rain and cloud. Typically it should but it has not. And this is against a backdrop of extreme weather conditions in many parts of the world ... the El Nino effect? ... Hmmm, the storm's across the US and the unprecedented and record breaking rainfall in the UK?

The trade winds are also exceptionally strong due to the tightening pressure gradients between high pressure and low pressure ... sea conditions are choppy with heavy waves breaking on the beaches.

In Tobago, the rain has been bucketing down for most of today and this will continue overnight and possibly tomorrow.

It is quite unusual and and hopefully the usual conditions should bring the usual weather this week ... didn't I speculate that this dry season could be wetter than normal about 2 months ago?

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 3RD JANUARY 2016

Last week was mostly sunny with showers, most of which fell overnight.

It is tricky to predict what will happen from one day to the next and this is due to the fact that the Saharan influence is from Barbados northwards.

The Saharan Dust is the key factor behind the concept of a 'dry season' because it suppresses moisture and reduces the amount of rainfall.

Consequently, Tobago may have more rain than the Islands north of Barbados because the Saharan influence is not currently over Tobago. Another factor is Tobago's proximity to the South American landmass where Low Pressure is constant and occasionally throws a plume of moisture northwards which can result in cloudy conditions at the very least.

So although I commonly predict sunshine and showers there can be more or less of either from one day to the next.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 11TH JANUARY 2016

It now seems, at last, that the cloudy and showery conditions of last week have been snuffed out by a nice dose of dry Saharan Dust.

So this week should bring sunshine and showers rather than cloud and showers!

It's not all perfect though as an unseasonally deep Depression in the Atlantic is bringing weather fronts to the northern Caribbean and high winds are sending strong sea swells southwards down the eastern side of the Caribbean.

It won't last long. The seas will peak late Wednesday and calmer conditions should return for the weekend.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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MIDWEEK UPDATE ... 14th January 2015

The weather has turned a little cloudy and rainy and this is due to a big surprise in the form of Hurricane Alex that has punched right through the Atlantic High, interrupting the flow of trade winds across the Caribbean that carry the Saharan Dust that typically keeps rain clouds away.

Don't worry ... Alex is not coming to Tobago or anywhere in the Caribbean although he is 6 months early !!

The result is indirect and this is likely to bring increased moisture ... more cloudiness and occasional rain for the next few days.

I will do an update on Saturday ... more information about Hurricane Alex is in the new thread '2016 Hurricane Season'.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 16TH JANUARY 2016

Due to the interruption in the Atlantic High's position during last week the trades have slowed down, there is plenty of fair weather cloud around and the seas should be reasonably calm (about 4' to 6' max).

The Saharan Dust influence has strengthened over most of the Caribbean so any showers are likely to to be light to moderate but, currently, there appears to be a fair amount of cloud.

The Atlantic High is putting itself back together now so, as this coming week progresses, the trades should slowly pick up, any showers should be more brief and the seas will gradually increase to about 6' to 8' (max) by the end of the week.

There is a very small risk of more organised rain moving north from the South American mainland while the trades are low in the first half of this week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 23RD JANUARY 2016

Travel disruption is likely in the eastern US as this 'snow-mageddon' dumps large quantities of snow over a very highly populated area.

The interesting thing about this storm is it's origin and how it is producing exceptional amounts of snow.

Firstly, it originated in the northern Caribbean and it is carrying very warm air up the eastern US. The Atlantic is also reasonably warm so rain is more likely over the sea and on many coasts. Secondly, the storm is pressing against a strong and unyielding area of cold air being pushed right down from the Arctic.

So the temperature extremes are producing more rain and the cold air that is being sucked into the north west and western quadrants of the storm is turning this rain into snow and 'hey-ho, it's not off to work we go'.

Back to Tobago and the rest of the Caribbean ... it is relatively quiet with very little rain. Saharan Dust is a very strong influence and the trade winds are strong in some areas.

This means generally fair weather but it can be a little cloudy sometimes and such cloudiness is very random and it can produce very light rain.

So good weather for the week ahead for Tobago with a chance of fair weather cloud from time to time.

The seas are moderate but the waves could increase towards the middle of this week as the trades respond to a tightening of the pressure gradients.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 30TH JANUARY 2016

Generally, the weather in the Atlantic is not normal.

Low pressure and unsettled weather has dominated the western side of the Atlantic for over a week with a series of depressions originating in the northern Caribbean traveling through the southern US States (particularly Florida) and along a jet stream up the eastern US and round the north of the Atlantic High which has been displaced to over North Africa.

This explains why Northern Europe has had extreme weather as these depressions, carrying warm air, clash with colder air creating the energy in these wind storms.

The position of the Atlantic High is causing very dense saharan dust to travel across the tropical Atlantic and this is affecting the southern Caribbean, snuffing out moisture and making it hard for rainclouds to form.

Having said that, it is quite cloudy in places.

It's a north south split for the Caribbean this week with poor and unseasonal weather in many northern Caribbean Holiday destinations and fair weather to the south.

So Tobago should continue to enjoy fair weather this week although there is a risk of nagging cloud and, with the rainforest in mind, a few home grown showers could arise from time to time.

There are signs towards the end of the week that the trade winds could increase, bringing heavier seas but we can review that next week.

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