LIQUID SUNSHINE

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Paul Tallet
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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 5TH DECEMBER 2010 ... 1300 GMT

Moisture levels are still high in the southern Caribbean although the ITCZ is sinking to the south and so I expect an improvement this week with showers reducing.

Where the rain falls is very hit and miss so this does not necessarily mean that Tobago will get alot of rain ... it's just a risk.

An area of dry air is moving westwards across the Atlantic and this should also have an impact on the moisture levels when it reaches the Caribbean.

So this week we are starting off with sunshine and showers and a gradual reduction in the shower activity over the week.

Travel ... I daresay there was significant disruption last week as Gatwick airport was closed on Wednesday and Thursday due to the snowfall in the UK. This week will not be so bad as most of the snowfall is likely to take place to the north but the UK is going through a prolonged cold spell that I expect to last well into the New Year ... best laid plans are a must for those leaving their homes for holidays this winter.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 12TH DECEMBER 2010 ... 1745 GMT

Drier air is aloft and the ITCZ has sunk well to the south ... the skies look clear over most of the Caribbean.

Expect good weather this week with a few localised showers.

Travel ... Watch out this week as cold air returns over Europe and the UK ... the cold blast is from the north this week so southern areas may be protected from the worst which means that Gatwick airport should be OK ... it's early day but I see a turn to easterlies after Thursday and some potentially nasty white stuff on the way.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 18TH DECEMBER 2010 ... 1130 GMT

The weather is stable in the Caribbean as the 'alleged' dry season takes hold.

Tobago should continue to have fine weather this week but I have seen moisture levels increasing and this brings humidity and the prospect that there could be a little more shower activity this week.

Travel ... The UK airports are currently shut down due to snow ... Western Europe should be OK but anywhere east of France is likely to have disruption over the next week ... the US isn't having much fun either.

The UK is facing travel disruption for at least another 7 days as a blocking High stubbornly sits over or near Iceland and directs cold air over the UK from the north or the east ... the seas are very warm compared to this cold air and consequently it is picking up alot of snow which seems likely to switch it's affect from the west and south to the north and east next week. Possibly warming up in the south (Gatwick/Heathrow) at times.

Expect problems/issues on your journeys from the UK.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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FESTIVE SEASON UPDATE ... 29th DECEMBER 2010 ... 1230 GMT

Normal service resumes after a very hectic Christmas for me ...

Travel conditions in the UK and Europe have improved now so that normal service can be expected for the foreseeable future. Cold weather is expected to continue but it is not expected to be as severe as the last month.

I think travel is slowly getting back to normal in the eastern US following the recent snow storms.

The Caribbean is quiet apart from a trough extending from the mid-Atlantic and currently bringing a little cloudiness and light rain to areas around Puerto Rico.

Tobago has a few light showers but it looks very clear ... the weather is looking good up to the weekend.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 8TH JANUARY 2011 ... 1315 GMT

Last week was a little rainy with a persistent area of showers hanging around to the south of Trinidad & Tobago ... Trinidad seemed to get the worst of this.

The moisture levels and humidity are quite high so this is likely to bring plenty of showery weather this week but of more significance will be an increase in the trade winds which should reduce the humidity as the week progresses.

This will also bring heavy seas that will bring swells that will gradually increase and probably peak next weekend or early next week.

A good week for surfers.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 16TH JANUARY 2011 ... 1145 GMT


It's a typical dry season week ... dry air dominates the whole of the Caribbean and strong trade winds are sweeping across the southern Caribbean.

Expect plenty of sunshine, occasional showers (mostly at night) and heavy seas. The surf should start to quieten down towards the end of the week.

Enjoy ...

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 21ST JANUARY 2011... 1600 GMT

An early update for this weekend and next week. I am giving up time to a lot of other matters at the weekends so the weekly updates are, more often than not, going to appear on a Friday or a Monday.

The weather in Tobago and virtually the whole of the Caribbean looks blissful with very little moisture and plenty of sunshine. Only a trough over Florida is coming close to unsettling things in the far north of the Caribbean.

This typical dry season weather should continue for the foreseeable future but this often brings strong trade winds at this time of year.

The trades carry little moisture but as they rise over Islands like Tobago with high mountains they can develop clouds and set off short bursts of rain that can rarely be detected on radar.

The trades also pick up the seas ... the seas around Tobago are moderate and the wave heights should reduce until next Tuesday before they start to increase gradually towards the end of next week.

If you are there, have a good week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 27TH JANUARY 2011 ... 1800 GMT

This is an early update again as I have places to go and people to upset this weekend.

The typical dry season weather continues ... I see reports of rain but this rain is carried at a low level on the trades and is very difficult to pick up on the satellite ... most of it should fall at night but, who cares, these are just localised showers and these should be expected most days ... it's normality.

The seas are heavy and the surf should reduce early next week before picking up again towards the end of the week.

Enjoy next week's weather.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 4TH FEBRUARY 2011 ... 1115 GMT

It looks a little overcast around the south eastern Caribbean which indicates alot of cloudiness and some rain from time to time.

There is also a small trough moving in from the east so early indications are of some cloudiness and some rain over the next few days.

The sea is picking up too and I expect heavy surf to peak around Tuesday/Wednesday after which it should recede.

Hopefully things should brighten up from Monday onwards.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 10TH FEBRUARY 2011 ... 1630 GMT

Another early update ... I have places to go and people to upset this weekend :mrgreen:

There is little to say as a typical dry season sets in ... this means it should be mostly sunny with occasional showers, most of which tend to fall at night.

I have noticed some cloudiness to the south east of Tobago and this may pep up some showery activity over the next couple of days. The Caribbean is generally very dry.

Otherwise, I can say that the sea swells are picking up for this weekend, peaking on Sunday before they gradually recede.

Good weekend for surfers.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 18TH FEBRUARY 2011 ... 1615 GMT

The fine dry season weather continues ...

There is a hint of moisture coming up from the south for Tobago in the next few days but otherwise it looks set to remain sunny and with occasional showers.

The sea should be relatively calm this week but there are signs that the swells could pick up substantially towards the end of next week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 26TH FEBRUARY 2011 ... 1300 GMT

The hint of moisture I referred to last week gave Tobago quite a wet week but this area of cloud and rain is shrinking and dissipating and now seems to be affecting a narrow band from Grenada to St Lucia.

The satloops indicate that Tobago is now under reasonably clear skies but this doesn't mean there won't be showers because showers are normal at all times of the year.

But the patterns indicate a return to drier conditions for the week ahead.

The seas are getting heavy this weekend and will peak on Sunday and Monday before very calm conditions develop towards the end of the week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 4TH MARCH 2011 ... 1620GMT

An early update before I buzz off for the weekend ...

The weather looks very calm across most of the Caribbean and, at last, Tobago seems to be getting a fairer share of the sunshine.

The trade winds are moderate and dry but there are a pockets of moisture in them so there will be some showers occasionally.

The seas are moderate to calm and I am expecting this to continue or possibly get calmer towards the end of the coming week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 11TH MARCH 2011 ... 1100 GMT


Another early update as I have places to go and people to upset this weekend.

My forecasts are becoming a little hit and miss due to a continual threat of moisture pushing up from the South American mainland. Not only is this difficult to predict but sometimes it is difficult to see on the sat loops.

Trinidad and Tobago are unique in the Caribbean due to their proximity to South America, coupled with the fact that both Islands have substantial rainforests that generate localised weather patterns of their own.

Nearby Venezuela typically gets a thorough drenching every afternoon. Tobago often gets rain at night or in the early hours of the morning and this applies to the dry season too.

When the weather gets really active over Venezuela, plumes of moisture can move north over the southern Caribbean and this, every year, has been the spoiler for those seeking sunshine in Tobago.

The week ahead indicates less of the rain because the trade winds are expected to pick up from Tuesday and these have a tendency to cut off the moisture coming from the south. There will still be rain in the form of showers as the trades carry moisture of their own and as they rise over the hills and the lush rainforest of Tobago, clouds form and rain falls.

The sea swells are also expected to pick up a little from Wednesday onwards but not to any great extent.

Meanwhile, spare a thought for Japan and, as I write, the Islands of the Pacific awaiting the arrival of the Tsunami ... at least everyone seems better prepared.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 21ST MARCH 2011 ... 1700 GMT

Thanks for all the updates on Liquid Sunshine Feedback.

Although the weather seems to be settling down there is still a risk of wet weather coming up from the south and it is very difficult to predict when and if it will happen over the next week.

A frontal system is moving south over the northern Caribbean and, although this won't reach Tobago, it should introduce some fresher winds across most of the Caribbean and pick up the seas from Thursday onwards. Hopefully this will keep any threats from the south at bay.

It's looking like plenty of sunshine this week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 1ST APRIL 2011 ... 1019 BST

Tobago appears to have enjoyed a good week of clear and fine weather but more of the moisture has returned bringing scattered showers, cloudiness and some longer periods of rain.

This is due to the Atlantic High sinking further south and this causes the airflows to come from a south/south east direction, dragging up the gunge from South America.

This looks like it will set in for a few days at least and will affect most of the southern Caribbean.

The sea swells are moderate and could increase to heavy by the middle of next week around Wednesday before receding again.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 9TH APRIL 2011 ... 1000 BST

Yet another finger of moisture is moving north east off the South American mainland and this is bringing some quite heavy showers to Trinidad and Tobago ... due to the movement of this plume of rain it could rain persistently in some places for most of this weekend.

The trend is still difficult to predict beyond the weekend due to the constant threat of moisture moving north from Venezuela but there is a stronger sign towards the end of the week that the trend should settle down with normal conditions and easterly trades setting in.

Sea swells are currently moderate and I expect this to be sustained until the sea becomes calmer next weekend.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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MID-WEEK UPDATE ... 12TH APRIL 2011 ... 1500 BST

The rain continues ... as indicated in Liquid Sunshine's weekly update last Saturday.

The very unseasonal rainfall is now affecting most of the eastern Caribbean and has set in with some very high rainfall amounts. The rain is quite persistent in some areas and is unlikely to disperse completely for another 2 days.

Some places in the Caribbean may get lucky but this is a very large area of moisture and cloudiness can be expected at the very least.

I am seeing a good chance of this frustrating weather pattern ending by the end of this week if the trades can pick up a little more from the east-northeast but it is a very unpredictable situation.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 17TH APRIL 2011 ... 0830 BST


We are now 6 weeks off the beginning of the 2011 Hurricane season (or wet season) and it is becoming apparent that the dry season has been a very 'wet dry season' and there seems little sign of the above average rainfall amounts reducing.

Last year's Hurricane season was very active but many of the major hurricanes were in the Atlantic Ocean and few in the Caribbean and I speculated on whether there were sufficient hurricanes in the Caribbean to cool the seas down enough to reduce the humidity.

Hmmm ... well, the weather patterns are moving east over the southern Caribbean with the lower level trades going in the opposite direction ... this is bringing the constant risk of persistent rain to the south but the location varies from day to day.

Last week alot of rain fell over the eastern Caribbean with some Islands reporting serious flooding which is highly unusual for this time of year.

Right now, the Dutch Antilles and Islands to the north of Tobago are being affected by another plume of wet weather generated by the South American mainland.

Tobago looks reasonably fair today but this continuing threat of more organised rainfall (i.e.; for 1 - 2 days) is there for the rest of this week.

It's going to be very hit and miss.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 26TH APRIL 2011 ... 1615 BST

The dry season continues with periodical rainfall but this rain is now starting to come from the east as weather troughs move in with the trades ... these will eventually become Tropical Waves when the 'official' wet season gets going from 1st June.

A trough is moving in to bring a higher risk of rain in the next 24 hours, otherwise the weather seems fair.

Sea swells are increasing this week and should decline next week.

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