LIQUID SUNSHINE

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 12TH JUNE 2016

As expected, Tobago had a couple of days good weather before the rains set thanks to the predicted Tropical Wave.

I wouldn't put money on it during weather cycles such as this but it does look as if Tobago could benefit from some decent weather this week after the rains have cleared away.

Saharan dust is moving in and this should at least reduce rainfall and bring fair weather. My confidence in this reduces after Tuesday but it is so difficult to make good predictions at this time of year.

The seas are calm to moderate but could pick up a little towards the end of the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 19TH JUNE 2016

It was a decent week last week after the Tropical Wave passed by ... until this weekend when the next Tropical Wave arrived.

Tobago has an unsettled period that should last until Tuesday with stacks of moisture cushioned between the Wave from yesterday and another Tropical Wave that should arrive by Monday = persistent and potentially heavy rain.

Behind the 2nd Wave is clearer weather and plenty of dry Saharan air = good weather.

But there are 2 more Tropical Waves on the way, The first Wave should arrive maybe Thursday and the next Wave over next weekend ... these Tropical Waves are not currently carrying much moisture but this can change depending on other aspects of the weather.

So I expect the best weather to be on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

Seas mostly moderate all week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 26TH JUNE 2016

After a wet weekend the weather is improving for Tobago, but rain is not far away.

To the west is a plume of moisture running off the South American Continent and to the east is a little bump in the ITCZ. Further to the east near Africa is another Tropical Wave.

The most likely source of rain is from the ITCZ so I am giving a 40% chance of persistent rain between now and Tuesday but it could be the case that someone gets it and whoever doesn't.

The next risk of rain is towards the end of the week as the next Tropical Wave arrives. I also see predictions of heavy seas next weekend from the Magic Seaweed Surfing site but no models are yet predicting that this Wave will develop so perhaps it's best that I monitor this and issue an update later in the week ... so if you don't hear from me then everything is fine.

Either way, I would give a 60% chance of rain by next weekend.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 3RD JULY 2016

The focus for this week is going to be Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.

A band of random showers are affecting Trinidad & Tobago overnight tonight. Monday should be ok but rather showery.

By Tuesday, the effects of a strong Tropical Wave and an associated Depression will bring persistent rain and possibly squally winds to Tobago (and Trinidad) and then I sense this Wave could have the potential to develop further as it crosses the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

Conditions should improve on Wednesday and the rest of the week looks fine apart from another party-pooper arriving possibly by Friday.

The sea conditions look a little restless this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 10TH JULY 2016

Last week went pretty much as planned and the last Tropical Wave that passed by Tobago on Friday and Saturday was not that bad.

This week looks a little more settled as very dense Saharan Dust starts to drift over most of the Caribbean. This should snuff out, or at least reduce, rainfall.

But there is another Tropical Wave on the way which should arrive near Tobago by Wednesday. This Wave is already struggling with the Saharan influence but it may bring some rainfall when it arrives.

Tobago's weather in summary for the week is fine and showery and the risk of rain increases on Wednesday.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 17TH JULY 2016

The weather looks beautiful for Tobago this week but we need to keep an eye on 2 Tropical Waves.

The first one will arrive by tomorrow but, although this does not currently have any rainfall associated with it, it could boost the usual localised showers.

The 2nd Wave is more of a feature and this increases the risk of persistent rain for Thursday/Friday.

Otherwise, a very nice week ahead ... enjoy.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 24TH JULY 2016

The weather is mighty fine and sublime and when it is like this you know that this time (the low season) is the best time of the year to be in Tobago.

I know there are risks with Tropical Waves but they normally come and go in 48 hours and some of them produce no rain at all ... you simply do not get weather like this during the high season ... a flat emerald/blue sea with 4k equivalent visibility and the occasional passing shower.

I spent 4 weeks in Tobago just once in June/July 2013 ... superb ... and I wish I could do that time of year again.

But ... it is hot and very humid and you feel like hanging yourself from the ceiling by your ankles with the top of your head brushing a strategically placed bowl of iced water just to get a decent night's sleep!

This week looks good although there are some nuisance showers pushing up from the south and these can spoil the weather and make it cloudy and even more oppressive, so fingers crossed that these showers are just for tonight.

Another Tropical Wave (as usual) is on the way but this is unlikely to affect the weather in Tobago.

Enjoy.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 31ST JULY 2016

Last week was the first week of real Storm activity as a Tropical Wave raced across the Tropical Atlantic and is now crossing the Windward Islands and on the brink of becoming a Tropical Storm.

This is bringing widespread rainfall to the Caribbean from Barbados northwards although some showers generated by the ragged outflow of the system are affecting some areas a long way from the supposed centre of this disturbance which I think is going to form in the western Caribbean Sea.

More details and updates on this weather event can be found in the 2016 Hurricane forum.

As for Tobago, last week turned out very well as expected but there have been more showers over the last 48 hours due, in the main, to increased moisture being carried through the Caribbean by the disturbance described above.

I expect this week to have more rainfall than last week. There are a number of factors supporting this, increased moisture, higher humidity and the tail end of the disturbance could drag further moisture from Venezuela. Add to this the complete absence of Saharan Dust and the outcome has rain written all over it.

So, there will be decent weather for Tobago but showers will form more readily and there maybe a few longer periods of rainfall, particularly overnight.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 7TH AUGUST 2016

My second attempt at delivering this weeks forecast. There is a strange Ms Michele posting (in Steve's red capacity) on the Accommodation section which I hope is not a viral attack.

Anyway ... it will be raining overnight and possibly for some of tomorrow in Tobago as a Tropical Wave passes from east to west.

There are more areas of rain behind this Wave so the week ahead is likely to be very hot, humid and with rainy periods or prolonged showers. Sunshine too!

We are now deep into the Hurricane Season and, as one would expect, there are plenty of Tropical Waves on the way and the conditions are improving for the development of Storms or, at least, prolonged rainfall ... Tobago is less likely to see Storms or Hurricanes than the rest of the Caribbean but does experience some tropical disturbances that go on to cause havoc elsewhere.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 14TH AUGUST 2016

After some overnight rain last night in Tobago there is likely to be more rain today and it could be heavy and thundery.

The cause? ... Yes, another Tropical Wave which will pass over Tobago later today or overnight, pushing a compact blob of heavy rain ahead of it.

For the rest of the week it looks quite quiet with a risk of more rainfall late Wednesday to Thursday, coinciding with the arrival of another Tropical Wave.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 21ST AUGUST 2016

This week's focus is currently in the direction of the east where a Storm is brewing. More details of this and regular updates can be found in the '2016 Hurricane Season'.

Currently the weather in Tobago is very calm but I am expecting the weather to deteriorate from Tuesday afternoon as a strong Tropical Wave arrives in the Eastern Caribbean bringing a widespread risk of thunderstorms and potential localised Tropical Storm conditions anywhere along the Windward Islands.

This weather disturbance has formed a very large circulation but most of the action is to the south of the centre of this circulation and is reaching the equator.

Even if this disturbance develops into a Tropical Storm before it reaches the Caribbean, the centre of the system may pass well north of Tobago, but it is important to understand that this is a large weather system and that any rain bands to the south of the system are likely to pass over Tobago.

So, Monday will be nice but the risks of rainfall and potentially squally conditions increase through Tuesday and into Wednesday.

Keep watching the 2016 Hurricane posts for updates.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 28TH AUGUST 2016

Last week there was a risk of some fall out from a strong Tropical Wave that traveled north of Barbados, into the Bahamas and is now tracking between Cuba and the south of Florida ... This system has confounded all the weather models until now, as a newly formed Tropical Depression 9.

Tobago did not get a drop of rainfall from this system ... but there is plenty of rainfall now as the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has moved a little north, pumping high moisture levels across Tobago and merging this with additional moisture from the South American mainland.

So the next few days are looking pretty wet and the risk of rainfall remains high for the rest of the week, by which time I will be watching another strong Tropical Wave begin it's journey across the Tropical Atlantic.

Please see the 2016 Hurricane posts that I am updating on almost a daily basis as the Storm Activity hots up.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 4TH SEPTEMBER 2016

This week is going to start with a high risk of rain for Tobago as a strong Tropical Wave (that I mentioned in last week's forecast) passes through the Windwards.

Most of the rain is north of Barbados but this system is starting to slowly spin and it would be unwise to assume that Tobago will not be affected by a rain-band or 2 from this system over the next 2 days. The northern part of the system is being attacked by dry Saharan air but there is no dry air to the south and this is where the system may produce some hefty thunderstorms.

Later in the week, the rainfall risks rise again by Wednesday as another Tropical Wave moves in from the east.

To sum it up, there will be sunshine but there will also be rain.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 11TH SEPTEMBER 2016

A quieter period of weather is expected this week for Tobago with high humidity and generally calm seas.

But there will be a high risk of rain all week due to the humidity levels.

A potential Tropical Storm is developing to the north east of Tobago as part of a strong Tropical Wave. The Storm, if it develops, is not affecting any land areas but the Wave could convert the high moisture levels in the atmosphere into rain by Tuesday for most of the Eastern Caribbean.

2 more Tropical Waves have left Africa and these could increase the risk of rain for Tobago towards the end of this week.

There will also be plenty of sunshine around but this will feel exceptionally hot and the nighttime temperatures may tempt the most hardy to switch their air-conditioning on ... by comparison, any rainfall may also be quite refreshing.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 18TH SEPTEMBER 2016

Tobago had a fair bit of rain last week as predicted and the risk of rain is currently very high as a Tropical Wave passes through.

The rest of the week looks calm with little threat from the east in the form of Tropical Waves.

There is little Saharan influence around so very little to snuff out rain clouds and there is a risk (40%) of rainfall plumes coming up from the rainforests of South America ... maybe I should call these 'Venezuelan Plumes' after the Spanish Plumes that occasionally affect the UK during summer time.

Equally, Tobago's own eco system could produce some showers. All very unpredictable.

Otherwise, it looks quite calm, humid, hot and sunny.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 25TH SEPTEMBER 2016

There is plenty of rain around Tobago and most of the Windward Islands as a Tropical Wave passes through.

So expect rain from now and through the night, clearing later tomorrow and then calm ... before the Storm.

Potentially dramatic changes in the weather are likely to occur during Wednesday and could last into Thursday as a developing Storm system arrives from the east.

If you refer to the '2016 Hurricane' posts you will see that I have been watching this potentially dangerous disturbance over the last few days and I will be posting updates regularly.

Tobago rarely experiences Tropical Storms and Hurricanes but it should be noted that this developing Storm is following a rare track very close to the Equator and it is under circumstances such as this that something 'rare' could happen, so we should treat it with respect.

The risks ...

At this early stage, the risk zone is between the coast of South America and as far north as Barbados ... so this means that Tobago is smack bang in the middle of the zone. It is even rarer to consider that a developing Tropical Storm could affect countries like Venezuela. Trinidad is also in this risk zone.

The timing ...

I have high confidence that this system will arrive near Tobago on Wednesday.

The strength ...

This is the big question. Does this Storm pass by as a strong Tropical Wave with localised severe weather impacts and then move on to strengthen further west in the Caribbean Sea?

Or could this develop before it reaches the Caribbean?

This is a rather pointless debate because this developing system, at it's worst, could bring Hurricane conditions to Tobago and I think it would be unwise to ignore this possibility. Tobago should plan for the worst and hope that I have egg all over my face as the Storm strikes north or south of Tobago.

And, don't forget, the weather warnings may be issued just a few hours before this Storm's arrival.

So ... for those traveling to or from Tobago, please expect disruption on Wednesday.

Those planning leisure trips in the sea or the Rainforest on Wednesday ... cancel, don't go.

For those that live in Tobago, make sure your property is secure or find somewhere that is secure ... there are just 50 hours to go before this arrives ... that's plenty of time to be ready.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 2ND OCTOBER, 2016

Last week was up-ended by Hurricane Matthew tracking a crescent to the north of Tobago, as a Tropical Storm, bringing plenty of rain.

Matthew is still an issue for Tobago because the eastern outflow of the Storm is sending very heavy showers and periods of persistent rain across the whole of the Eastern Caribbean.

In view of Matthew's position and it's northerly direction towards Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba, this outflow is likely to continue sending pulses of rainfall eastwards and it could last for 2 or 3 more days.

Matthew has brought high levels of moisture to the Caribbean so, whether or not Matthew continues to have an impact on the Eastern Caribbean, the risks of rain should remain high for the rest of this week, coupled with the arrival of another Tropical Wave around Wednesday that could increase the risks of rainfall further.

Not a good week for visiting tourists but Tobago does need some rain.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 9TH OCTOBER 2016

Updates on Hurricanes Matthew and Nicole can be found in the 2016 Hurricane Season Forum.

This week is easy to predict for today, Monday and possibly Tuesday but after that, I haven't got a clue.

We are in the peak of the wet season and the Caribbean is recovering from the extremities of Hurricane Matthew that introduced high levels of moisture to the area.

Initially we have a Tropical Wave introducing a period of rainfall to Tobago from now and until probably Monday night or Tuesday.

After that I would be inclined to predict some calm and fairer weather with occasional showers, particularly at night. But there is little to reduce the high moisture levels in the atmosphere and so I am going to predict fairly frequent showers both day and night. Perhaps there will be one or 2 good days with less rain this week ... maybe Wednesday and Thursday.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 16TH OCTOBER 2016

The weather situation continues to be unstable in most parts of the Caribbean.

Hurricanes Matthew and Nicole are gone although Nicole is still banging away in the distant North Atlantic having regained Hurricane status 3 times.

The NHC is issuing advisories on a disturbance to the north of the Bahamas which I am wondering about whether it could be a remnant of Matthew.

In the far south west of the Caribbean around Columbia and the Central Americas there is alot of lively weather and numerous thunderstorms and I am keeping an eye on this because something could develop here but of no threat to Tobago.

In the south east Caribbean and Tobago the weather is probably the quietest but it is by no means dry. The influential Atlantic High is completely displaced and all the Saharan Dust, that reduces rainfall in the Caribbean, is being blown over the Mediterranean instead.

In fact the Weather patterns all around the Atlantic are not as you would expect them to be.

So in these situations, Tobago looks to the south for the Weather and this is not a very good direction because this is where the perpetual Low sits over the rainforests of South America. In fact there could be a battle this week between High pressure building in the sub-tropics of the Northern Atlantic and the plumes of heavy rainfall trying to push north from South America.

Due the high levels of humidity and little to prevent rainclouds forming I am leaning towards frequent showers and some longer spells of rainfall for the first half of this week but the building High Pressure could prove me wrong.

It's supposed to be the wet season, right?

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 23RD OCTOBER 2016

The general circumstances as I described last week have not changed much and rainfall remains a high risk even though less of it fell over Tobago and the south east Caribbean than I expected, instead saturating other areas in the Caribbean.

There is now no Storm activity although there is some interest in a Tropical Wave about 1,000 miles to the east of Tobago.

This Wave is associated with a mass of rain clouds but there is strong shear moving from west to east and over this Wave and pinning back the rainfall ... quite a battle going on.

But this Tropical Wave will arrive, maybe Tuesday and I would expect the rain to win the battle by this point in the coming week.

Some weather models have been suggesting that this Wave could develop but I think this is unlikely before it reaches the Caribbean, but it could bring quite significant rainfall if the shear eases up.

So, in summary, fine weather for most of the week but possibly a wet period in the middle of the week.

Regards