LIQUID SUNSHINE

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Paul Tallet
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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 20TH JULY 2014

Showers appear to be reducing this weekend and there should a be a fairer day on Monday.

2 Tropical Waves are on their way ... the first, on Tuesday, is a rather weak Wave but it could bring an increase in shower activity.

The next Wave is expected later in the week and this, also looks relatively weak although it seems to be carrying more moisture than the first Wave.

We need to bear in mind that the ITCZ is creeping north and this, combined with low pressure over the South American mainland, could make it overcast at the very least ... anything from there normally brings alot of rain.

So ... there is a higher than normal risk of rainfall during the coming week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 25TH JULY

Well ... it's looking like a weekend of rain.

I was in Tobago this time last year and the weather was sublime so it just goes to show that there is nothing to rely on and that you can get bad weather at any time throughout the year.

I cannot see past this rainfall ... it is likely to rain on and off for a few days up to Monday.

After that it depends where the ITCZ is ... if it is anywhere near Tobago then the weather will be very unpredictable.

Still, the only positive is that Trinidad & Tobago need rain.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 3RD AUGUST 2014

There was a little excitement last week as Tropical Storm Bertha formed just east of Barbados.

Bertha was a kind Storm bringing no extreme conditions and plenty of much needed rain over a wide area of the eastern Caribbean.

The system is now just north of the Dominican and expected to curve north and then north-east into the mid-Atlantic.

This week could be changeable for Tobago as 2 more Tropical Waves are on the way but there will still be plenty of sunshine for the sun bathers.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 8TH AUGUST 2014

An early one because I have places to go and people to upset this weekend :mrgreen:

Well ... this weekend is not looking too good as there is plenty of moisture around Tobago, not greatly helped by the presence of a Tropical Wave to pep it all up and bring some rather heavy periods of rain.

It's not raining everywhere as it is very localised so, although the risk of rain is high this weekend, some Islands in the Lesser Antilles will get a deluge and some others may have little rain at all.

The next event is another Tropical Wave that should bring more wet stuff by Tuesday ... so, it is basically a cycle of a few days of good sunny weather and then a showery or rainy couple of days and so on.

Meanwhile, back in the UK, we are ready to welcome good old ex-Hurricane Bertha that appears to be going through the transition of 'tropical' to 'extra-tropical' as she homes in on the southern counties of England for Sunday, bringing warm air, stacks of energy, loads of rain and strong winds ... even at this late stage her precise track is unclear ... slight chance she may go for France but this would still bring rain to the southern UK.

(I believe I may have mentioned this possibility last Monday or Tuesday in the 2014 Hurricane topic).

Perhaps it is a mid-life Crisis for Bertha but I hope she will be as kind to the UK as she was to the Caribbean, bringing the Islands much need rain.

Bertha was born not far from Tobago, just north of Barbados. I find it fascinating to track these Storms on their long journey as they peak in the tropics, get dusted down and then regenerate as powerful depressions in the north Atlantic.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 17th AUGUST 2014

The week ahead for Tobago looks very changeable.

The weather could coming from the south and the east.

To the east are 3 Tropical Waves, one strong one that is struggling against the dense Saharan Dust. The Atlantic High has receded somewhat and when this happens there is a risk of the perpetual Low pressure over South America bringing rain up from the south.

Tobago is at the extreme south east of the Caribbean and is not sitting under the swathe of Saharan Dust ... as a consequence, Tobago is at more risk of wet weather during situations like this.

It looks OK now but it also looks changeable and there is a risk of rain this week either from the south and also from Tropical Waves arriving from the East.

Ex-Hurricane Bertha that the media say was born off the coast of Florida (no she was not ... she became a named storm just north of Barbados almost 2 weeks before she arrived in the UK) has brought a marked change to cold and windy weather to northern Europe ... not good for your prized dahlias 8-[

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER 24TH AUGUST 2014

There is little to add to the comments I made in my last post in the 2014 Hurricane forum, except that there are now 3 Tropical Waves instead of 1 moving across the Tropical Atlantic.

The 96L disturbance is now well on it's way north of the Caribbean and looks likely to follow the same path of Bertha. As expected it has become a Tropical Depression and will upgrade to a minor Hurricane out at sea with no threat to land on the US side of the Atlantic so the next focus will be to see if it tracks towards Europe for next weekend.

Meanwhile, back in Tobago, there is still some rain from the tail of 96L and this is due to the system sucking up moist air from the perpetual Low over South America.

With 3 more Waves on the way it is easy to predict a high risk of rainfall for the week ahead but, as yet, there is a very low risk of Storm development, although that can change so keep an eye on the 2014 Hurricane Forum for updates.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 31ST AUGUST 2014

The wet season certainly 'wetted' itself up last week with barely any part of the Caribbean avoiding rain.

Tobago's rain more or less finished on Saturday night and today was a breather ... but there is more rain on the way.

There are now 3 Tropical Waves moving across the tropical Atlantic and the ITCZ is very close to Tobago. The weather should be fine until late Monday and into Tuesday when the first Wave arrives and then the second Wave by Thursday.

The third Wave looks very strong and I sense that the NHC will be issuing advisories on this within the next 48 hours ... if nothing develops it could bring some very wet weather for Tobago next weekend.

Meanwhile, for those worrying about the Volcanic Activity in Iceland and the prospect of flight disruption ... no need to worry ... ex-Hurricane Cristobel is bashing Iceland right now and any Volcanic Ash will be blown in a northerly direction for the whole week as Cristobel ushers in a nice warm airflow for the UK and Northern Europe for the rest of the week.

So, it's not all bad ...

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 7TH SEPTEMBER 2014

Tobago should have decent weather for most of today but an area of rain associated with another Tropical Wave should move in tonight.

I reckon the rain risk will be high until Tuesday and then the rain risk decreases for the rest of the week.

The next Tropical Wave is just leaving Africa and is at least 5 days away ... this is a strong Wave which is expected to develop into a Tropical Storm ... if so, no threat to Tobago because it will likely go north of the Caribbean.

If the development of this Wave is disrupted then it could open up again into a Tropical Wave and then the risks of rain increase towards next weekend for the majority of the Caribbean.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 14TH SEPTEMBER 2014

It is steady away for Tobago with sunshine and occasional showers.

The showers could increase by Tuesday as the pressure decreases and there is still alot to come from the Atlantic.

There are no significant threats for the rest of this week but a strong Tropical Wave is about to leave the African Coast and that will be one to watch if it arrives as a Tropical Wave in the Caribbean next weekend.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ...21ST SEPTEMBER 2014

Not just for Tobago but also for the rest of the Caribbean it is very showery and locally the rain can be very persistent, heavy and with thunder.

The ITCZ (or Monsoon trough) is over the centre of the Caribbean and this makes the weather very unpredictable and potentially wet.

Another Tropical Wave is due over Tobago in the next 24 hours and this should increase the rainfall and bring further moisture from the east.

In a nutshell, it looks like being a rainy week.

No significant storm threats for the foreseeable future but be mindful that some of the showers could be very heavy and flash flooding could occur.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 27TH SEPTEMBER 2014

This has been a very quiet wet season with no developments for the foreseeable future which is very rare for this time of year when the Hurricane risks begin to peak.

This week is going to be very unpredictable ... having a weak wet season does not necessarily mean less rain.

The Monsoon Trough (ITCZ) is running right over Tobago and there is little in the way of Saharan Dust in the atmosphere. The Monsoon Trough represents low pressure and the lower the pressure the more likely clouds can form and it is impossible to say exactly where.

Tobago's weather could be beautiful this week ... I believe that this time of year is best when the weather is good ... but there is a risk that rainclouds could form to bring either some persistent form of rain or an absolute downpour from time to time.

Lets hope the sun wins the game.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 4TH OCTOBER 2014

A Tropical Wave has just passed Tobago where it has rained persistently and heavily for the last 24 hours... much needed rain.

The intensity of the rain has reduced although there are still several areas of intense downpours around the eastern Caribbean.

I am expecting the cloud and rain to move away by tonight.

There are no more Tropical Waves in the Atlantic due to an unusually dense layer of Saharan that snuffed most of the moisture out, this is good news in general for the weather this week for most of the Caribbean.

However the extreme southern areas of the Caribbean, including Tobago, could have further periods of rain during this week due to the proximity of the Monsoon Trough (ITCZ) which currently right over Tobago and the Dutch Antilles.

This situation brings reasonably calm weather, high humidity and a good chance of rain from time to time.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 11TH OCTOBER 2014

Following a week of relative calm in the Tropical Atlantic, the week ahead presents 3 areas of disturbed activity.


Tropical Storm Fay

This one is just east of Bermuda and is a weakening affair that is expected to turn to the north east and over cooler waters.

This is likely to show up on the North Atlantic pressure charts but it is too early to tell if it will affect Europe and/or merge with an already large and powerful depression in the North Atlantic.


Disturbance East of Northern Windwards

This is currently likely to track across the northern Islands to Puerto Rico and is expected to develop as it moves into the warmer Caribbean sea. This disturbance covers a relatively small area and any rain is likely to go no further south than Barbados, although the effects of the wind could send heavy swells towards Tobago over the next 2 or 3 days.


Mid-Tropical Atlantic Disturbance

There is less concern of development of this system but it's associated Tropical Wave covers a wide area and, if that remains the case, then this system could bring heavy rains to most of the Caribbean and there are likely to be localised Tropical Storm type conditions here and there.


Tobago

The next 2 days look OK, but from Tuesday/Wednesday onwards the risks of rain increase and this situation could last about 48 hours.

If any Storm development occurs (which currently looks unlikely) I will Post updates in the Hurricane 2014 section.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 19TH OCTOBER 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo was the main feature of the last week but will be the main feature of the weather over the UK on Monday and Tuesday this week ... still just hanging on to Hurricane status a few hundred miles off Newfoundland.

Tobago should have about 2 reasonable days weather on Monday and Tuesday until a Tropical Wave introduces a good shot of moisture around Tuesday night through Wednesday so the risks of rain increase for a few days towards next weekend.

Otherwise no signs of anything sinister to report.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 25TH OCTOBER 2014

Tobago is enjoying a respite from last week's rain, but it won't last very long.

The main feature for this week is 2 Tropical Waves with alot of moisture sandwiched between them.

The first Wave should arrive tonight and this will bring the first rains ... the second wave should arrive late on Sunday or early Monday and this Wave should bring an end to any persistent rain.

Now, one of the potential problems at this time of year is the low pressure that sits over South America. As we near the end of the alleged wet season and the ITCZ begins to move south for the dry season it is quite common to see plumes of moisture moving north over the southern Caribbean.

There is a general risk of this occurring during the month of November and into the early part of December.

The most extreme event arising from this was a Tropical Depression that formed over Trinidad and Tobago 10 years ago in November 2004 bringing over 16 inches of rain in less than 24 hours. This brought a few fatalities, widespread landslides carrying huge trees down from the rainforest and flash flooding.

10 years later there is still evidence of the damage this caused in the Charlottesville and Speyside areas and it would seem right (10 years on) to remember those that lost their lives in that exceptional event.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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HEAVY RAIN ... 26TH OCTOBER 2014

Updating yesterday's post ... A Tropical Wave is approaching Tobago and this is bringing extremely heavy rain.

The main area of rain is almost stationary and just to the east of Tobago and seems to be getting some energy from the warm Caribbean Sea, although it is pressing against easterly upper atmospheric winds that are shearing away at the highest clouds.

If this makes any further progress (which is likely to be slow) to the west it will bring very heavy and persistent rain and thunderstorms to Tobago for several hours or more.

The rainfall risks will be very high until Tuesday or Wednesday by the time the second Tropical Wave has passed through and I expect this area of disturbed weather to move on and cause problems elsewhere in the southern and western Caribbean.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 22ND NOVEMBER 2014 ... 0900 GMT

Back to normal, sorry to any regular readers for my absence ... I have just moved to a new home and internet access has been difficult.

So, the weather ...

It seems to have been quite rainy over the last couple of weeks and a rather unusual situation in the north Atlantic is to blame.

The north Atlantic jet stream has kinked and this is bringing very cold air down across North America bringing record breaking snowfall to most of Canada and the US.

Conversely, this air warms as it reaches tropical areas and this warm air shoots north and over Europe and the UK bringing above average temperatures to the other side of the Atlantic.

As a consequence, the Atlantic High that normally governs the Caribbean weather is being displaced to the south and this increases the pressure gradient bringing stronger trade winds and high seas.

This trend has been in place for the last week and seems set to continue for another week.

So, the Caribbean in general, should expect strong trades and, to the south including Tobago, a high risk of rainy periods mostly from the south and east.

We are coming to the end of the official 'wet' season and hopefully the Atlantic HIgh will get back to it's usual position in the next 2 or 3 weeks.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 30TH NOVEMBER 2014

Today is (officially) the last day of the wet season and tomorrow is the first day of the dry season.

The 2014 Hurricane Season has been quiet as far as I am concerned and Tropical waves off the African coast stopped many weeks ago.

So now the seas will cool a little and the trades should start to pick up although there is a depression currently splitting the Atlantic High into 2 areas to the east Atlantic and a weaker High over the north Caribbean.

There is also a steady steam of thundery activity along the ITCZ well to the south of Tobago ... where it should be.

There are no clear signs of the weather to expect this week with the Atlantic Depression but it could pull some cloudiness and rain up from the south ... but I consider that unlikely.

I would say for the week ahead there is likely to be a split of 80% sunshine and clear spells and 20% rain in the form of showers, mostly overnight.

Enjoy ...

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 6TH DECEMBER 2014 ... 0920 GMT

This week's influence for the Caribbean is a rather deep depression just to the east of the Bahamas which has broken up the traditional trade wind flow for the southern half of the Caribbean, but the pressure gradients to the north of the depression are quite intense, bring strong winds and high seas from Puerto Rico northwards and up the east coast of the US.

The trough associated with the depression is sucking up moisture from the south American mainland and this is bringing rain to the southern Carribbean from the Dutch Antilles and westwards all the way to Costa Rica.

This trough is, of course, moving east and may affect Tobago over the next 2 to 3 days with an increase in shower activity and the possibility of persistent periods of rain ... this is a 40% risk.

Once this depression has moved away the Atlantic High should re-establish it's normal position and introduce more typical weather for Tobago from Tuesday onwards.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 13TH DECEMBER 2014 ... 1000 GMT

As indicated on Liquid Sunshine Feedback earlier this week, the seas have been quite rough but this should ease off a little this weekend.

The cause of this comes from the north east where the Atlantic High failed to re-establish itself last week and instead Low Pressure fills the gaps, creating tighter pressure gradients and pushing large sea swells down across the Caribbean from a more northerly direction.

Consequently, there is no clear weather pattern although there is some dry Saharan air mixed into the equation.

So this week is very difficult to predict as with Low Pressure being the influence the weather can come from other directions instead of the east ... the south would bring likely rain ... but for now it is a more northerly influence when Low pressure is to the north east ...

... so, generally dry weather but I am not very confident about this prediction due to the changeable conditions.

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