LIQUID SUNSHINE

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Paul Tallet
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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 25th AUGUST 2012 ... 1030 BST

Caribbean focus is on Haiti this weekend as TS Isaac is set to dump heavy rain over the country although the worst of the rain is to the south of Isaac's centre and I remain hopeful that it will not be as bad for Haiti as many fear.

Tobago has had a deluge from Isaac over the last week and the storm has left behind a very moist environment.

There will be some sunshine but expect plenty of showers probably for the next few days until midweek when things should return to relative normality.

Difficult to predict the weather towards the end of the week as there are many active Tropical Waves and other potential developments that can make the weather quite erratic ... but there are no new threats to the Caribbean for the next several days.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ...1ST SEPTEMBER 2012... 1000 BST


Quite a contrast last week as the weather settled down.

We now have an uncomfortably close Tropical Storm Leslie that is close to hurricane strength and just east of the Windwards.

Leslie is expected to veer north and avoid the Caribbean but the proximity of this storm could bring some heavy seas to Tobago this week and the possibility of some showers from the outer rain bands this weekend.

Otherwise the weather looks good for the week with no threats for at least 7 days.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 8TH SEPTEMBER 2012 ...1030 BST

After a reasonably fine week it looks like next week is set to be a good one as well.

Most of the nasty stuff is either in the Atlantic or to the north of the Caribbean and of no concern to Tobago.

However, the ITCZ is quite close to the south and this can set off some rainfall from time to time but I think the risk of this is small.

Another strong Tropical Wave has just moved off the coast of Africa but this poses no problems for the Caribbean.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 16TH SEPTEMBER 2012 ... 0900 BST

Another good week last week apart from the heavy rain that fell on Monday.

It's looking a bit unsettled for today and tomorrow as a strong Tropical Wave moves in to affect all the Windward Islands for the next 2 days.

Thereafter, calmer conditions should set in again but there is a bit of moisture about and always the risk of a downpour like last Monday.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 21ST SEPTEMBER 2012 ... 1230 BST

The weather is calm across the south and eastern Caribbean. A couple of weak Tropical Waves could bring a few spells of rain over the next week but I don't see anything significant.

The ITCZ is well to the south and there is nothing of note forming across the other side of the Atlantic so I am expecting the week to be generally sunny and with only localised showers in Tobago.

The only weather of interest is Tropical Storm Nadine close to the Azores. The UK Met Office reckon Nadine is going to suddenly speed up to the north east and give bad weather to the UK on Sunday through to Tuesday.

The NHC predict the Storm will hardly move at all ... it's always very interesting when you see weather models differ so widely.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER UPDATE ... 24TH SEPTEMBER 2012 ... 1500 BST

Some rain is moving in from the east due to a Tropical Wave.

However most of the rain is north of Tobago, it may come to nothing but there is a risk of a few beefy showers at the very least.

Meanwhile I am chuckling away to myself as the Storm developing over the UK appears to have been an offshoot of Tropical Storm Nadine that is still loitering around between the Azores and Portugal.

Top marks to both the UK Met and NHC for their accuracy, but they could have explained what they were banging on about last week :mrgreen:

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 29TH SEPTEMBER 2012 ... 0700 BST

It's looking like a wetter than average week ahead for Tobago as a procession of Tropical Waves move across the Atlantic bringing plenty of moisture.

Expect a few rainy days.

A stronger Wave looks like it is forming off the African coast so that will be something to watch over the course of this week.

Meanwhile, Nadine is causing all kinds of trouble in Europe. Although this pesky hurricane is still almost stationary near the Azores it has been spawning a series of Storms. The UK was first at the beginning of this last week and now Spain has been affected with some unfortunate fatalities.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 5TH OCTOBER 2012 ... 1230 BST

Last week's feature developed into Oscar ... no threat and is about to die in the mid Atlantic.

October and November tend to be the wettest months of the wet season and last week was fairly typical for Tobago, however other areas of the Caribbean (particularly to the north) have not had that much rain.

I expect above average rainfall in Tobago for the next week as a stream of Tropical Waves bring moisture but ther should be plenty of sunny and fair breaks.

There are no threats of Stormy conditions developing in the Atlantic for the foreseeable future.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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UPDATE

Thanks for the feedback Andy.

I thought this week could be wet ... it will be very wet as a very strong Tropical Wave brings stacks of moisture over the next 3 days (yes ... there could be 3 days of rain) plus a risk of some localised strong winds ... this wave is being assessed by the NHC as posing a small risk of development ... unlikely, but there could be some localised issues with flooding and/or wind damage here and there.

So ... caution advised up to the weekend ... be careful about arranging (or cancel) rainforest trips and boat trips before Saturday ...

... get the cards out, the ludo board, or the most recent version of '50 shades of Grey' and chill out while it pours.

... or, have a nice swim ... the sea feels so warm when it rains.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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INVEST 98

Although there is some doubt, the Wave that I have been posting about is showing some signs of development so future posts on this can be found in the 2012 Hurricane topic.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER... 20TH OCTOBER 2012 ... 1030 BST

The weather has calmed down in the south east Caribbean since the passage of Raphael last week which brought some heavy rains.

This week it's the turn of the south west Caribbean to receive plenty of rain and this could develop into something for the west and Mexico.

Back in Tobago and the Atlantic there are several Tropical Waves on the way so this week is likely to bring plenty of calm, hot weather, occasional showers with the possibility of one or 2 spells of rain lasting 6 hours or more as the Tropical Waves pass through.

There are no signs of any Storm development in the south east Caribbean for the foreseeable future.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 27TH OCTOBER 2012 ... 1230 BST

I am distracted by a major weather event unfolding to the east of North America that is expected to cause considerable destruction over a wide swathe of the coastline and inland regardless of where landfall occurs.

Otherwise the weather for Tobago is absolutely sublime for this weekend.

Expect a couple of Tropical Waves to spoil things for a short time around Tuesday this week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 3rd NOVEMBER 2012 ... 1100 GMT

Well, what a week!! Need I say more?

Anyway, we are coming to the end of the wet season and (I don't want to tempt fate) I reckon the transition to the dry season is taking place already.

The only unusual factor right now is a very large depression in the mid-Atlantic which is bringing unseasonal weather to the Canary Islands and the west coast of Africa so I reckon this is blocking off the trades to some extent.

So the weather looks very calm for Tobago and the rest of the Caribbean so I expect this week to be quite hot and humid with some sunshine but it could be a little cloudy if there is little movement in the airflows.

No signs of any Storm activity ... I think Sandy has done the job for this season.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 11TH NOVEMBER 2012 ... 1500 GMT

The good weather continues for Tobago.

The trades have also picked up so this could bring a little more in the way of trade showers.

There is no sign of Storm activity so there is a good chance of a good week's weather to come.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 17TH NOVEMBER 2012 ... 1100 GMT

The fine weather continues with rain falling mostly at night.

This week, 2 Tropical Waves are coming and they should pass Tobago Tuesday and Wednesday. These Waves are bringing some extra moisture behind them so I am expecting that rainfall amounts could increase from mid-week onwards.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 25TH NOVEMBER 2012 ... 1000 GMT

Generally good weather continuing but right now a trough with some heavy rain is just to the north of Tobago so this may produce some heavy showers today.

Otherwise there is little to report other than to expect the standard dry season weather with showers falling mainly at night.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 1ST DECEMBER 2012 ... 1500 GMT

A small area of heavy of heavy rain is affecting Tobago today and it looks like it will hang around until tomorrow as moisture is being pulled up from South America.

To the north of Tobago are strong trade winds that are picking up the sea.

Once the rain is out of the way the trades should establish themselves further south and bring a return to dry season conditions to Tobago.

The wet season is officially over today but I note that a development is occurring in the mid-Atlantic which is not expected to be a threat anywhere this week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 8TH DECEMBER 2012 ... 1115 GMT

Last week was a little wetter than expected as the trades did not exert their influence as much as I expected.

But they will this week and the sea swells are expected to rise during the early part of this week.

Other than that, there are a couple of early morning showers around Tobago as I type ... expect plenty of sunshine and showers all week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 15TH DECEMBER 2012 ... 1100 GMT

It's quite unusual for the ITCZ to be north of the Equator at this time of year.

This indicates calm, humid weather for Tobago with the possibility of some heavy downpours from time to time.

From Wednesday onwards it looks like the Trades will kick in again and fresher weather with the typical sunshine and showers will return.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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EARLY WEATHER ... 21ST DECEMBER 2012 ... 1200 GMT

Last week I said that it could be quite wet but I was wrong to suggest that the rainfall would clear up by Wednesday.

What is happening is quite unusual and the influences in Tobago's weather extend all the way to a blocking High Pressure sitting over Russia.

As a consequence, a huge depression has formed over the north Atlantic with frontal troughs extending south almost as far as the equator and this is bringing the constant barrage of rainfall over the UK and northern Europe.

The size of the Atlantic depression has upset the flow of trade winds to the Caribbean and, as a consequence, the murky humid weather from the South American mainland is bringing spells of rain to Tobago and the south east Caribbean.

The Russian High is showing signs of relenting over this weekend and High pressure is starting to build in the central Caribbean and should extend out to the Atlantic by early next week.

So I am expecting this run of wet weather to reduce over the weekend and bring back the normal Dry Season conditions by Christmas Day.

This is my last weather update before Christmas so I wish everyone a good Christmas, especially if you are in Tobago.

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