LIQUID SUNSHINE

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Paul Tallet
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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 12TH MARCH 2017

Judging from some posts in the weather forum over the last week I sense that I was about right to predict 50% chances of rain each day.

For those with long memories I think the worst weather was in January 2005 when there was virtually no sunshine for the whole month ... so it's not that bad!

However, the 'dirty' Weather that I have been going on about since my last visit over December 2016 and into January 2017 is caused by a strong jet stream moving off the US and displacing the Atlantic High to the East. The Atlantic High has only had sporadic control over Tobago's weather this year.

The lower the pressure then the more likely clouds will form and produce rain.

Around the equator is permanent Low Pressure along a swathe of up to 20 degrees wide. This is like a band around the world where the weather is very unpredictable, this is known as the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Tobago is close to the Equator.

Tobago, being one of the closest Islands to Venezuela and the South American continent, therefore gets the worst of the 'dirty' weather that readily plumes up north from the rainforests there.

So there are going to be times like this although there was a good spell of Weather for 2 weeks in February.

As with last week, frontal systems are moving across the northern Caribbean and as pressure decreases there could be more of the overcast and rainy weather this week too.

The sea appears to be moderating but I don't think it will reach calmness this week.

It's unusual weather ... so enjoy it !! :mrgreen:

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 19TH MARCH 2017

The weather for Tobago has deteriorated over this weekend as another plume of moisture moves up from South America, associated with a Low Pressure system.

The weaker influence of the Atlantic High has allowed this to happen on almost a weekly basis since last Christmas and part of the blame goes to the strong jet stream that has brought a procession of Storms across the US, displacing the High and weakening it's impact on the southern Caribbean.

I expect the Atlantic High will regain control during this week.

So, it's a wet start to the week with mostly light rainfall here and there with the occasional heavy one, but an improvement possibly as early as Monday although it will take a few days for the momentum for good weather to really get going.

I expect the weather to improve this week as the jet stream over the US is going to kink north, sending the Storms across the Atlantic north of the Tropic of Cancer. This should give the Atlantic High the space to breathe and exert a more positive influence over the whole Caribbean.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 26TH MARCH 2017

Last week's forecast was sort of right but generally wrong as a Depression moved north from Columbia and worked it's way right across the Caribbean and is now moving north east over the Bahamas.

This brought widespread rain over most of the Caribbean but, being at the extreme south east of the Caribbean, Tobago got very little from it.

Yet again, the Atlantic High is displaced but it is now bringing easterly trade winds carrying that drying Saharan Dust that reduces the moisture in the air.

So, this week, I am going to predict that the weather is going to stay as it is with sunshine and showers and with a 40% chance of longer spells of rain falling mostly at night.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 2ND APRIL 2017

The tragedy unfolding in Columbia is probably the most extreme example of how wet the dry season has been for most of the Caribbean. When the weather in Tobago isn't right it is often because of the moisture moving north from countries such as Columbia and Venezuela.

Tobago seems to have had better weather last week although there were some days when rain was falling over Tobago or not very far away.

The forthcoming week looks much more positive ... The Atlantic High is still displaced but rather than being pushed east it is being pushed south east, bringing high levels of Saharan Dust across the Tropical Atlantic to the Caribbean.

This means sunshine ... and lots of it. Very few showers.

Enjoy it while it lasts.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 9TH APRIL 2017

From what I can see, last week had fair weather as predicted with a few showers, however this now appears to be breaking down and I would expect some periods of rain this week.

The general situation is Low Pressure with the Atlantic High displaced and way off the charts. I cannot see it resuming it's normal position before next weekend.

Areas of rain and thunderstorms are breaking out randomly across the whole Caribbean on tonight's sat-loops ... it is fairly hit and miss but I am expecting a plume of moisture to move north from the South American mainland and over the Caribbean this week.

Tobago could get lucky and avoid lengthy spells of rain but I am saying 50:50.

Not long before the wet (?) season.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ...16TH APRIL 2017

I was not expecting last week's weather to be good with the displacement of the Atlantic High from it's usual position. I was also expecting another plume of wet weather to move north from South America and to affect most of the Caribbean.

True enough, this bad weather affected most of the Caribbean for most of last week but Tobago did not get the worst of it until later last week as multiple surges of moisture pushed north until a steady jet-stream of rain developed, bringing continuous rain to many areas over the weekend and moving in a north easterly direction towards an unusually deep depression that formed north of the Bahamas.

This scenario is very unusual for this time of year but then this year, on the whole, has not been usual at all having experienced myself my wettest holiday in Tobago in 17 years at the start of this year.

The fatal Columbia floods and landslides a few weeks ago (that the media seems to have lost interest in) are an indicator of how severe the weather has been for this time of year and, yet again, Columbia is under a deluge with widespread and violent thunderstorms ... these also could track north east across the Caribbean although, hopefully, these should miss Tobago.

Tobago has seen plenty of rain but nothing of the severity going on elsewhere in the southern and central Caribbean.

Looking ahead this week, I cannot see much change before Wednesday when I am expecting high pressure to rebuild across the northern Caribbean and hopefully cutting off the flow of wet weather.

The deep Depression I mentioned earlier could push some heavy sea swells southwards across the eastern Caribbean over the next few days.

So ... 80% risk of rain for Tobago until Wednesday and an improvement after that.

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The main weather feature last week was the development of a deep depression north of the Bahamas
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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ...23RD APRIL 2017

The weather patterns are still not very normal.

High pressure is building over the southern US but a small depression is moving across the northern Caribbean and this is likely to maintain the disarray with wet weather to the north and the risk of more dirty weather affecting the southern Caribbean while High pressure is kept at bay.

Last week, particularly the 2nd half of the week, appeared to be very sunny and fine for Tobago.

Right now there is a narrow band of heavy showers north of Tobago but otherwise it is clear.

I give a 50% chance of wet weather coming up from the south at some point this week due to Low pressure dominating the general weather but, otherwise, expect good conditions.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 30TH APRIL 2017

Tobago was blessed with fine weather last week although it has become cloudier over the last 12 hours with rain close by.

The displaced Atlantic High is stronger and creating higher pressure gradients across the Caribbean and this is an indication of heavy seas, particularly over the Gulf of Mexico ... a long way from Tobago.

We are coming to the end of the dry (?) season and the transition to the wet (?) season often brings heavy seas and, as I am told many times, the crashing waves are the sounds that attract Turtles to the beaches to lay their eggs. By July there is the chance to see baby turtles flapping their way towards the sea as well as Turtles laying but such sights are not very prolific on the main tourist beaches in Tobago these days ... probably because of the tourists!

The week ahead should bring fine weather but the way the general weather patterns look, there is a small chance of wet weather because the jet streams are bringing weather from the west and not the east.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 7TH MAY 2017

I wasn't sure what to make of Tobago's weather last week.

The general situation was fine but there was a very thin trough of showers that hung around the south east Caribbean up until Thursday. At some point, Tobago should have some fairly heavy bursts of rain but, regular readers will already be aware of my scepticism of the geographical overlays on the sat-loops so maybe nothing happened.

This week looks fair providing a very squashed Atlantic High can build eastwards. There are 2 Tropical Waves on the way but these are over the equator and bound for the already turbulant weather over the rain-forests of South America.

There are already some violent Thunderstorms over this area, particularly Columbia and inland over Venezuela ... this is where the weather could come from if that Atlantic High does not build.

I am going to be positive for Tobago and predict that the Atlantic High wins and the weather is mostly fair for the week ahead with the possibility of one day of rain or the equivalent.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 14TH MAY 2017

Last week's weather for Tobago was OK until Thursday/Friday when the first 2 Tropical Waves arrived, the 1st Wave introducing the rain and the 2nd Wave ending the rain.

3 more Tropical Waves are on their way so I guess it's now time to say that the wet (or low) (or hurricane) season is properly underway although it will take some serious rainfall to cap the recent and apparently 'wet' dry season.

But I like the Wet Season, it's simpler and the weather can be the best although I admit the heat and humidity can be challenging. But you don't get muggy weather or endless days of rain coming off the South American Continent which is the main spoiler of the dry season.

With the wet season it is normally periods of up to 24 hours of rain as a Tropical Waves passes and then the tap is turned off ... much easier to forecast.

Anyway, this week ... High pressure seems to have established itself across the tropical Atlantic and this is bringing (wait for it) ... Saharan dust, yes this is what normally happens in the dry season.

In addition are the aforementioned 3 Tropical Waves which are tracking more or less along the equator. It seems unlikely at this stage that the Tropical Waves will bring much rain as the Saharan influence should snuff out most of the moisture associated with the Waves.

I therefore predict fine weather for the week ahead with an 80% chance of rain on one day.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 21ST MAY 2017

The next 10 days are (officially) the end of the dry season and the start of the wet/hurricane season is on 1st June.

Already, the general situation is showing the characteristics of the wet season with the Atlantic High (for once) dominating the weather patterns, bringing moderate/heavy loads of Saharan Dust and an easterly flow of trades and Tropical Waves.

A Tropical Wave is currently bringing rain to Tobago but this is a minor matter with higher levels of Saharan Dust coming behind the Wave.

The week ahead looks good with moderate seas, plenty of sunshine, showers and a small chance that a Tropical Wave, currently in the mid-tropical Atlantic could boost rainfall during the mid-week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 28TH MAY 2017

Only 3 days to go before the official start of the wet/hurricane season and we are already underway with 4 Tropical Waves.

One Tropical Wave has just passed Tobago, bringing some showery rain over Friday/Saturday, and another 3 are on the way.

Tropical Waves do not necessarily mean rain. One wave could bring rain but the one following it can introduce drier weather.

It is looking very changeable over the next week for Tobago and it is difficult to predict weather from one day to the next, but I can say for sure that when the weather is good during the wet season ... it is very very good.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 4TH JUNE 2017

The wet season introduced itself in a highly charged manner as Tobago and most of the eastern Caribbean endured heavy and persistent rains from Friday through to Sunday (today) ... compliments of the Tropical Wave that is now moving through the central Caribbean Sea with many other places to go and people to upset.

There are 2 more Tropical Waves moving across the Tropical Atlantic, steered by the trades of the Atlantic High to the north and boosted by the recession of the Saharan Dust factor.

As a consequence, most of the Caribbean will experience some persistent periods of rain but, as it is at this time of year, there will also be many periods of strong sunshine ... personally I think this is a good time of year to visit Tobago and most parts of the Caribbean and more so during July.

It is much clearer, rain or sun and none of that mucky cloudy stuff that often spoils everything in the dry season.

The only months I have not been in or near Tobago are August and November and, from my experiences, December and January have been the worst. June and July have been the best with much clearer visability in the calmer sea for snorkellers and divers.

The only thing that has been stopping me from repeating my June/July visits is my Garden and the fabulous thundery UK weather.

That was ... until I employed a Gardener that does exactly what he is told and knows the difference between a weed and a dahlia ... therefore, I sense that Christmas/New Year 2017/18 could be my last visit at that time of year unless my new Gardener walks under a bus, of which there are few in my remote locality.

Onwards and upwards ... for all who go there, please take my lead and enjoy the Wet Season in Tobago.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ...11TH JUNE 2017

Last week was exceptionally wet for most of the Caribbean as a progression of Tropical Waves made their way across the Tropical Atlantic, bringing long spells of rain.

From what I could see, Tobago had persistent rain on most days last week so it was not a good week for visitors.

The forthcoming week is similar with more Tropical Waves on the way, carrying decent amounts of moisture.

A lack of Saharan influence also applies so the week ahead brings a high risk of rain on most days.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 17TH JUNE 2017

I am not looking further than Wednesday this week due to the expectation that a Tropical Storm (Bret) is likely to affect Tobago over the next 48 hours.

The Storm is currently designated by the NHC as a 'Potential Tropical Cyclone'. It is on it's way at a good speed and I have little doubt that much will change between now and when weather conditions start to deteriorate on Monday evening.

I will be keeping an eye on this Storm so please refer to the 2017 Hurricane Forum for updates.

I am sure I don't need to insult the intelligence of visitors to Tobago to take precautions and not plan any trips or excursions until Wednesday at the earliest.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 25TH JUNE 2017

What a week. Tropical Storm Bret tracked to the south of Trinidad, let alone Tobago, last Monday/Tuesday. A very rare occurrence and even rarer at the beginning of the Hurricane Season.

And ... so far, it has been a very 'wet' beginning to a wet season and there is more on the way.

In action, there are 4 Tropical Waves across the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, plus a Depression moving off the west coast of Africa now.

The first Wave is in the central Caribbean Sea. The second Wave is bringing rains to the eastern Caribbean, including Tobago. The third and fourth are in the Tropical Atlantic and on their way and the Depression is just leaving the African Coast.

This is a very active situation.

Tobago can expect prolonged rain on most days in the coming week and some of the rain will be accompanied by the risk of squally conditions.

There are not (yet) any signs of Storm development.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 2ND JULY 2017

The weather for this week is looking a little better than recent weeks as Saharan Dust approaches the Caribbean, being carried by the trade winds.

This is likely to reduce rainfall (not stop rainfall) so that there are mostly showers and a lower risk of prolonged periods of rain, however, with Tobago being at the extreme south east of the Caribbean and close to the equator the pressure is quite low so there is always a risk that some rainfall could build northwards from the rainforests of South America ... a small risk.

It is towards the end of this week and next weekend when the general weather for most of the Caribbean will start to get interesting again and I will be posting on the 2017 Hurricane Season forum probably by mid-week.

A small cluster of thunderstorms are on their way across the Tropical Atlantic from Africa and, despite the dense Saharan Dust to the north of this disturbance, this could start spinning at any point between now and next weekend. It's early days and I think this disturbance is likely to track well north of Tobago.

But, as always, when Storms develop they can affect large areas.

So ... I hope everyone enjoys what should be a less rainy week ahead but keep a look out for developments for next weekend in the 2017 Hurricane Forum.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 9YH JULY 2017

Now this is why I keep saying that June/July can be the best months to visit Tobago although I am sure that some visitors to Tobago in the last 3 to 4 weeks may not agree with me.

This week is starting off beautifully ... few clouds, almost 100% sunshine, calm, crystal clear sea and just a small risk of the rogue shower here and there. All thanks to a very dense area of Saharan Dust over the whole of the eastern Caribbean.

How long will it last? ... about 4 days.

A Tropical Wave is arriving on Thursday/Friday and this one packs a punch unless the Saharan Dust kills it like the last 'Don' which did not make the grade last week. Don has yet to come.

Even as early as last Thursday, a minority of the Weather Models were observing an area of intense thunderstorms over the African plains and speculation has been rife over whether this one could develop into the first Cape Verde Hurricane which is quite rare this early in the Hurricane Season.

The only fact is ... this is currently a Tropical Wave and not yet anywhere near forming a circulation and it is likely to bring rain and squally conditions towards the end of this week.

If anything does develop I will post in the 2017 Hurricane forum ... in the meantime, enjoy the weather until the end of this week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER... 17TH JULY 2017

Last week the rains arrived about 12 hours earlier than I predicted but the Tropical Disturbance I mentioned petered out and therefore there were no updates to the 2017 hurricane forum.

This week is very similar with a Disturbance currently in the mid-Atlantic and with a small chance of development. This is likely to cross Tobago on Wednesday as an open Tropical Wave or Depression.

Right now there is plenty of moisture around and rain is falling sporadically in the eastern Caribbean. The Saharan Dust is very dense over the Atlantic (north of the disturbance I mentioned above) but I am not sure that the Saharan Dust will reach as far south as Tobago this week.

As a consequence, I am predicting that there will be some persistent periods of rain this week and likely pepped up by the Tropical Disturbance that is due to arrive this Wednesday.

I will post on the Hurricane Forum if there is any sign of development, but if you see nothing there then there will be no cause for alarm.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 23RD JULY 2017

I was reporting on Tropical Storm Don last week but about 2 of my posts didn't reach the forum which I am sure was of considerable relief to everyone !!

Anyway, TS Don was the second Tropical Storm to pass close to Tobago in as many weeks. Bret was to the south and Don to the north. Typically these Storms would pass about 10 to 20 degrees to the north (yes, I have read those theories that the Earth has tilted 20 degrees to the south but I don't think we are yet ready to add the track of this year's Storms to that notion).

Moving swiftly on ... this week is looking very active with no less than 5 Tropical Waves, 2 already in the Caribbean Sea and 3 Waves crossing the Tropical Atlantic.

Spare a thought for those in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean where no less than 7 named Tropical Storms are spinning around.

This week Tobago can expect some spells of prolonged rain but between these wet periods skies should clear quite quickly and there will be some sunshine around although I expect there will be some high levels of humidity, making it extra sweaty at night.

Enjoy ...

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