LIQUID SUNSHINE

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Paul Tallet
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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 7TH MAY 2011 ... 1030 BST

Apologies for no update last week ... I had an Easter Break and no Internet access unless I paid a fortune for it.

Some Hotels charge for this and some don't and the greedy Hilton should take note of it's competitors free Internet service.

Anyway, the weather ...

The generally 'wet' dry season trend continues and currently affects most of the eastern and southern Caribbean with Low pressure dominating over the South American mainland. This is currently being enhanced by another Low Pressure in the Atlantic.

The whole area is being affected by alot of cloudiness and pulses of rain here and there, some Islands are luckier than others.

This trend seems set to continue all week so Tobago can expect some sunshine, but alot of cloud and a high risk of shower activity.

The sea swells will be moderate all week but there are indications that heavy seas will affect the area towards the end of the week and over next weekend.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 14TH MAY 2011 ... 1630 BST

It's a very soggy ending to a rather 'wet' dry season.

Most of the Eastern and Southern Caribbean is shrouded under heavy clouds.

Tobago has not had it as bad as other Islands that have had a real drenching over the last week (as I expected).

Next week is hit and miss again with high levels of moisture bringing the risk of prolonged rain almost anywhere in the southern half of the Caribbean.

Next up ... the Wet Season starts on 1st June :mrgreen:

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 23RD MAY 2011 ... 1730 BST

Dare I say it? ... Looking OK this week. Moisture is still around and a trough passed through over the weekend bringing somewhat clearer air ... this is the precursor to the wet (?) season which officially commences on 1st June.

There are predictions of an above-average Hurricane Season this year again ... I am not surprised, there is very little drying from the Saharan Dust and the Sea Surface Temps are in the upper 80's ... I will start up the Hurricane 2011 string on 1st June so watch out for this if you want to keep tabs on this year's hurricane activity.

Meanwhile, the rest of this week looks quite reasonable and the seas are relatively calm, possibly rising to moderate at the weekend ... enjoy.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 28TH MAY 2011 ... 1330 BST

The extremities of the Tornado outbreak across the mid-west US are making me wonder if this year could see other extremities in the weather in other places in the World.

We are about to see that start of the 'wet' season for the Caribbean (officially this Tuesday) and, already, very high levels of rainfall are affecting the south west Caribbean and Tropical Waves are moving across Venezuela and just to the east of the Caribbean ... here's hoping the forthcoming season will not bring too much in the way of Hurricanes but I am not confident of this.

This week is looking good for the weekend before a Tropical Wave moves in from the east over Tobago. This could bring rain, squally conditions or both as it passes through on Monday and Tuesday ... on the other hand it may bring nothing at all, such is the unpredictability of Tropical Waves!!

After that we are into the Wet Season so look out for the 'Hurricane 2011' posts that will be starting from Tuesday this week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 5TH JUNE 2011 ... 1030 BST

We are now into the 2011 Wet Season which has had a strong start with a succession of Tropical Waves bringing widespread rain to most areas of the Caribbean except the Gulf of Mexico.

This theme is expected to continue this week ... a Wave has just passed Tobago and there are 3 more to follow this week.

Tobago can therefore expect 3 more periods of rain risk this week on Monday, mid-week and towards Friday/Saturday. There should be plenty of sunshine in between.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 10TH JUNE 2011 ... 1630 BST

Last week's disturbance is still hanging around the northern Caribbean and just goes to prove how seriously Tropical Waves should be treated.

Haiti took about 10 inches of rain this week and 20 lost their lives in the flooding.

It is calming down now and most of the Caribbean is clear of rain, however, 2 more Tropical Waves are on the way.

For Tobago it is much more settled apart from a few sharp showers to the south. Rain risk increases from Sunday/Monday as the next Tropical Wave approaches and then a 2nd Tropical Wave could arrive by Wednesday/Thursday.

Otherwise the weather looks fair, albeit quite humid. Heavier seas are predicted towards the end of the week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 19TH JUNE 2011 ... 1230 BST

Tobago is having plenty of rain this weekend as a Tropical Wave moves through.

This weather should clear up after today before the rain risk increases again for later in the week (probably Thursday) when the next Tropical Wave is expected to arrive.

There is no sign of any Tropical disturbance ... a quiet opening to the 2011 Hurricane Season.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 10TH JULY 2011 ... 2200 BST


Back from a holiday with no internet access so please accept my apologies for no updates over the last 2 weeks.

It is fine right now for Tobago but a Tropical Wave is due to arrive on Tuesday ... the Wave itself does not pose much of a threat but it is going to introduce rain for a couple of days as there is considerable moisture behind the Wave.

So I reckon it could be a bit rainy from late Tuesday and through Wednesday and possibly Thursday.

Otherwise there are no signs of any sinister Tropical Storm activity ... a quiet season so far.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 18TH JULY 2011 ... 1830 BST

I think I am starting to sound like a broken record about the risks of rain.

It is raining in Tobago as I write, it is quite heavy and associated with another Tropical Wave ... it should ease off this evening and there should be return (return?) to some sunshine tomorrow.

2 days away is another Tropical Wave and this is surrounded by alot of moisture mostly associated with the ITCZ or what many forecasters seem to refer now to a 'Monsoon Trough'.

There is nothing sinister ahead but the risks of more rain before the end of this week are quite high.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 25TH JULY 2011 ... 1930 BST


The Tropical Wave over Tobago during the weekend has now moved on to the central Caribbean and this could flare up again as it arrives in the Gulf of Mexico. In the meantime, Cuba and Jamaica have some heavy rain on their hands.

There is a moist airflow over Tobago bring plenty of showers but there should be plenty of sunshine in between ... this looks like the pattern for the next 3 days.

By Thursday we need to watch for the second of 2 Tropical Waves in the Atlantic. This Wave is at a very low latitude within the ITCZ. I am not suggesting that it will develop at this stage but it could bring some very wet weather towards the end of the week for Venezuela, Trinidad & Tobago and the Dutch Antilles.

The first Wave is a threat to more northern areas of the Caribbean mid-week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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UPDATE ...

Further to my comments last week of a possible threat affecting Tobago, Venezuela and the Dutch Antilles this weekend, please now refer to the 'Hurricane 2011' forum where I will provide updates.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 6TH AUGUST 2011 ... 0930 BST

Last week Tobago got a distant taste of Tropical Storm Emily as her outer rainbands brushed over the Island.

a few days calm and we are now expecting the next Tropical Wave to move over in the next 2 days bringing heavy showers for the weekend.

There is less activity in the Atlantic after that so this week, from Monday onwards, the weather should improve for at least a few days ... another blob is moving of the coast of Africa so the long term looks unsettled again towards the end of the week and the weekend.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 11TH AUGUST 2011 ... 1830 BST

An early update this weekend as I swan off for a long weekend in London and Tim Minchin at the Proms in the Royal Albert Hall on Saturday night.

I will be dressed appropriately in my hoodie and carrying a baseball bat so that I can blend in with the surroundings :mrgreen:

The weather ...

It's calmer now though probably very hot and humid as we near the peak of the alleged 'wet' season.

The weather should remain good for this weekend but there are some developments for the week ahead ...

2 Tropical disturbances have manifested in the eastern tropical Atlantic ... the nearest one looks the most potent but this is likely to move to the north of the Caribbean although the associated Tropical Wave could bring rains to Caribbean areas on Monday and Tuesday.

The second one is not far behind and this currently looks set to follow a more southerly track and represents a small threat to the northern Lesser Antilles. The associated Wave is more likely to bring rains as far south as Tobago probably for next Tuesday and Wednesday.

It's early days ... I won't be watching much during my joyous weekend but if I see anything happening on my return on Sunday night then watch out for posts on the Hurricane 2011 thread from Sunday night onwards.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 22ND AUGUST 2011 ... 1200 BST


During my weekend off Irene formed and affected the northern Leeward Islands. This is now Hurricane that has brough some reports of damage to Puerto Rico and looks set to be the most powerful Hurricane of the season so far and threatening eastern Cuba and Florida.

It is quieter elsewhere and Tobago looks set to benefit from plenty of sunshine and showers this week.

A blob is moving off the African coast though and next weekend could be interesting.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 26TH AUGUST 2011 ... 1345 BST

This weekend the east coast of the UK is horrible, the east coast of the US looks even worse ... a weekend of east coasts?

I am signing off for this weekend with an early weekly update. There will be no updates on the weekends of 10/11 and 15/16 September as I will be away and unlikely to have any internet access.

So the last update will be 3/4 September and I will try my best to do one on the 19th September when I get back.

Hopefully the weather will be quiet during my absence :mrgreen:


This weekend and next week look a little wetter than normal. The ITCZ is close to Tobago and this makes the weather very unpredictable with showers or longer periods of rain popping up almost anywhere. Otherwise it is the usual sunshine and a good degree of humidity.

There is nothing sinister to predict and I don't foresee any threats for at least the next 7 days.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 2ND SEPTEMBER 2011 ... 1000 BST

The week ahead for Tobago should stay as it is with no Tropical Waves expected to pass for several days.

The usual sunshine and showers should apply.

Hurricane Katia will pass close to the north east of the Caribbean and it is likely that will bring some heavy surf to Tobago over this weekend.

Another large blob is moving off the African coast and, again, this is not expected to affect the Caribbean but may make the seas a little choppy during the middle and end of next week.

This is possibly my last post for the next 2 weeks as I will be sunning myself in Portugal ... I am working on trying to have some Internet access while I am there but can't promise anything.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 26TH SEPTEMBER 2011 ... 0900 BST

The weather is a little unstable around Tobago due to the proximity of the ITCZ and this is bringing showery rain and high levels of humidity off the nearby coast of South America.

Tropical Storm Ophelia is just about holding itself together to the north east of the Caribbean and Tropical Storm Phillippe has recently formed south of the Cape Varde Islands ... neither of these storms pose much of a threat to land but, inbetween these storms, there is a Tropical Wave that could bring squally conditions to the eastern Caribbean and Tobago around Wednesday/Thursday.

So ... a hot and sultry week ahead for Tobago with occasional spells of rain which I guess will come as a relief wherever it falls.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 2ND OCTOBER 2011 ... 1930 BST

Hurricane Ophelia came very close to the Leewards Islands as a weak Depression last week before suddenly accelerating north and developing into a Major Hurricane ... fortunately no areas were affected but Newfoundland is at risk of Stormy conditions soon and these conditions could arrive in the UK by the middle of this week.

It is currently very wet in Tobago and most of the South East Caribbean and conditions seem likely to allow this moisture to continue bringing rain or high levels of humidity on and off this week.

We are now into the home straight on this year's Hurricane season with just 2 months to go ... it has been very active however not that many major Hurricanes have formed and most of the activity has stayed in the Atlantic.

The next one to watch has just left the African coast ...

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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As predicted, last week was rather wet and now it seems relatively clear for Tobago.

But this time of year brings risks of monsoon type weather and we have had some significant rain events in Tobago in October and November in the past, as well as the rest of the Caribbean.

The ITCZ is quite close and there is a Tropical Wave moving across the Atlantic that will increase the risk of rain from Tuesday ... but nothing too significant seems likely at this stage. The end of next weekend looks interesting for Tobago and I will post updates if I see anything significant.

Right now I am watching a very worrying area of extremely heavy rain affecting a wide area of the central and northern Caribbean ... the NHC is predicting that something could develop from this, again, unlikely ... this looks like a monsoonal rain event that will drench Cuba, Jamaica and Haiti before it moves north towards the US.

The seas are also very warm which is a possible consequence of the lack of Storms to develop in the Caribbean this year ... it could be a rainy end to this year's Hurricane season.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 18TH OCTOBER 2011 ... 0800 BST

I have not had internet for most of the weekend and the NHC website appears to be down or my access has been weak.

Anyway, the western Caribbean has had a horrible end to the week with widespread heavy rain although this has narrowed itself down to a small depression just off Mexico that could develop into something.

Trinidad had heavy rains over the weekend and, as Simon reports, Tobago probably got the lighter effects with a number of showers and thunderstorms.

It is quieter now but there is a very monsoonal trend with the ITCZ close by and prospects of heavy rainfalls anywhere at anytime but the sun always comes out when these showers are not around.

A feature in the eastern Tropical Atlantic is being monitored and some computer models are developing this over the next 3/4 days ... but the conditions are not right for the development of any Storms.

So ... another generally wetter than average week for Tobago ahead.

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