LIQUID SUNSHINE

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Paul Tallet
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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 23RD FEBRUARY 2014 ... 1245 GMT]

The fine weather continues but this week there is a small risk of rain coming from the east.

In fact, it is coming from the south as the dry saharan dust is breaking up and allowing plumes of moisture to move north over the Atlantic Sea but this area of moisture is likely to edge west this week with the trades bringing a low to moderate risk of rain to the south east Caribbean and then across towards the western Caribbean.

Some areas will avoid rain and some won't and some will just experience more cloudiness.

So, for Tobago, fine weather but the possibility that you may get a day/night of rain or cloudiness at some point in this coming week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 2ND MARCH 2014 ... 1030 GMT

Not much to say for this week. It looks like being a typical dry season scenario with sunshine and occasional showers.

Even the sea conditions are calming to some extent which is good news for snorkelers.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 8TH MARCH 2014 ... 1045 GMT

The pleasant weather continues with moisture being snuffed out by large quantities of Saharan Dust.

This brings trade showers that fall mostly overnight.

Any trouble at this time of year comes from the almost permanent low pressure over the South American mainland but the risks of this are low for this week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 14TH MARCH 2014 ... 2230 GMT

An early one this week as I have things to do, places to go and people to upset this weekend.

The good weather continues and the seas are calm so it must be quite idyllic in Tobago right now.

But there are a few plumes of moisture pushing up from the mainland to the south and there is still a small risk of a little rain here and there and cloud building during the afternoons.

Very hit and miss so you would be unlucky to have much more than the occasional shower.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 22ND MARCH 2013 ... 1615 GMT

The fine weather continues.

There is some moisture pluming northwards off the South American mainland but this is well to the east of Tobago.

Tobago and most of the Caribbean are under dry Saharan dust.

The Atlantic High is shifting a little to the east and pumping more of this Saharan dust across the tropical Atlantic.

It looks good for another week but watch out for the rainfall to the east.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 30TH MARCH 2014 ... 1330 BST

The Saharan Dust influence is reducing so this could bring a little more in the way of showers this week.

Normally the showers tend to fall more at night or just before dawn, but there will be a few during daytime.

Otherwise the good weather should continue.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 5th APRIL 2014... 1030 GMT

The weather has been changing over the last week.

The Saharan Dust influence has gone (in fact it has been moving over Europe and the UK over the last week), the Atlantic High has weakened and this is allowing more influence from a Low pressure over the south American mainland.

In addition, a weather trough is making a rare appearance over the eastern Caribbean.

This combination increases the chances of rain and cloudiness.

Some places will get the rain and some won't but I would rate the chances of some rain this week in Tobago as 80%.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER... 12TH APRIL 2014 ... 1030 GMT

i am not sure if much rain fell last week but there is still a reducing risk as a Low Pressure deepens over Venezuela. A plume of moisture is dropping rain about 600 miles to the east of Tobago.

Also, an unusual situation is developing in the Atlantic as the High has given way to more Low pressure that is dumping a fair bit of rain over the Canary Islands ... this will disrupt the drier trades to some extent.

It is nice weather for now and it could well continue through the week but the general picture indicates there could be a brief break from the nice weather and the Caribbean, being the Caribbean, it could be localised an very difficult to predict.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 19TH APRIL 2014 ... 1030BST

As expected, the last week has been more cloudy and with rain (some heavy) in various areas of the eastern Caribbean,

This a trend is going to continue for at least 2 days as moisture streams off the mainland of South America.

The Atlantic High is rebuilding and the satellite loops are showing the trades undercutting the moisture.

It will take a few days for the weather patterns to return to normal ... so the risk of cloud is very high up to midweek and the risk of rain is also high ... periods of sunshine will increase over the week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 26TH APRIL 2014 ... 0900 BST

The general cloudiness and showery conditions took a long time to clear last week and Tobago is not yet fully clear of this weather that is coming from the south.

The Atlantic High is again being pushed further to the east and this decreases it's influence on Tobago's weather.

A very dense area of Saharan Dust is now moving into the Caribbean and this should snuff out or reduce rain bearing clouds and I expect this influence to reach Tobago in the next 2 to 3 days after which the cloudiness should reduce.

It will be 50/50 risk between the moist conditions coming from the south and the drier weather coming from the east.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 4TH MAY 2014 ... 1115 BST

The Atlantic High has re-established itself and high levels of Saharan dust are being carried across the Atlantic to the Caribbean.

Being at the most southerly part of the Caribbean, Tobago will benefit from this drier air from to time.

There are rainclouds not far away to the south and there is a small risk that some rain could affect Tobago from time to time this week.

Otherwise, it should be predominantly sunny with occasional showers.


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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 11TH MAY 2014 ... 0800 BST

The last couple of days have been very wet across the whole of the Eastern Caribbean.

A trough has developed as moisture is being sucked up from South America and pulled towards low pressure to the north. The line of this trough is almost stationary and therefore it could rain for a few more days or, at the very least, produce overcast conditions.

Very dense Saharan Dust is crossing the Atlantic and there is a good chance that this will bring drier and sunnier, albeit hazy, conditions in the next 48/72 hours.

So fingers crossed for an improvement by Tuesday.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 17TH MAY 2014 ...1700 BST

After a rather wet week the weather today is beautiful in Tobago with hardly a cloud in the sky.

But ... Low pressure has removed the Atlantic High from it's usual place, the first Tropical Wave of this year is about 2 days away and there is still a threat of rainfall from the south.

The good news is that the Tropical Wave is being subdued but this could still pep up as it's nears the eastern Caribbean and the coast of South America.

The Atlantic 'Low' can allow rainfall to develop and can suck up moisture from South America... it also interferes with the trade winds.

So there is the risk of rain this week from the east and the south, I would say about 40% and some areas may get it worse than others and some areas of the eastern Caribbean may get little or no rain.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 23RD MAY 2014 ... 2245 BST

A quickie forecast early as I have places to go and people to upset this weekend ...

There is very dense Saharan dust over the eastern Caribbean ... this makes it easy to predict very low risks of rain, especially as the Atlantic High has regained it's rightful position and is pumping more and more Saharan Dust across the tropics.

There are 2 Tropical Waves on the way but the Saharan dust should snuff out most of the moisture.

So expect plenty of sunshine and few showers between now and midweek.

Enjoy

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 7TH JUNE 2014

Apologies for my absence last week ...

The weather is quite lively for Tobago today as a Tropical Wave to the east is pushing very high moisture levels ahead of it.

Tobago is likely to experience some very heavy rain for most of this weekend with the possibility of thunder and squally conditions.

Another Tropical Wave is 2 days away so I expect this week will have a high risk of wet conditions.

We are now in the 'Wet' Season / Hurricane Season so I will be watching for Tropical Storm developments across the whole of the Caribbean.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 15TH JUNE 2014

A Tropical Wave is passing Tobago and, although there is little rain with this Wave overall, it has brought a spell of heavy rain overnight to Tobago.

This will clear away later but it looks from the general picture that the risks of rain this week are higher for Tobago than most other Windward Islands and this is due to the fact that a very dense layer of Saharan Dust is protecting most of the eastern Caribbean and it is not reaching as far south as Tobago.

Another Tropical Wave should arrive by Wednesday and this will increase the risk of rain further for mid-week.

Things that we must remember about Tropical Waves. They are unpredictable, at the very least they introduce new weather such as a dry or wet period, Tropical Storm conditions can occur at any point along a Tropical Wave and some strong Waves can bring an absolute deluge, leading to flash flooding ... so Tropical Waves should be treated with respect.

No signs of anything ominous yet ... it is very early in the Hurricane Season.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 22ND JUNE 2014

Tobago has had a reasonably fair weekend and it should stay this way until Tuesday.

The next Tropical Wave arrives by Wednesday so it is around the middle of this week that has the highest risk of rain ... Wednesday and Thursday.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 28TH JUNE 2014

There are 4 Tropical Waves. 2 in the Caribbean and 2 in the Tropical Atlantic.

The 2nd Caribbean Wave is over the eastern Caribbean bringing rain although most of this is to the north of Tobago yet there is an increased risk of rain for today and tomorrow.

Of the 2 Atlantic Waves, the first one should arrive by late Monday into Tuesday and the second one will be following closely behind. The highest moisture is between these 2 Waves and this increases the risks of rain for midweek, however, there is quite alot of Saharan Dust around and this could reduce the moisture to some extent which is what happened to the Wave I forecast last week.

No signs of Storm activity.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 6TH JULY 2014

Very dense Saharan Dust is in the atmosphere right across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean.

This will reduce the risks of rain... a quite juicy blob has appeared off the African Coast but I don't give it much chance of bringing any rainfall to the Caribbean.

The spawning ground for Storms appears to be just off the Florida east coast. Hurricane Arthur formed there last week and has brought miserable weather all along the eastern US ... another small development appears to be spawning in the same area.

So ... the week's weather looks good for Tobago with plenty of hazy sunshine and the occasional localised shower.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 12TH JULY 2014

Last week's fine weather broke down about midweek as the Saharan dust retreated and a Tropical Wave moved in.

It is still a little unsettled but most of the rains should clear away to the west by the end of this weekend.

Then there are 2 more Tropical Waves on the way and these will influence the weather for this week so more periods of rain are likely for Tobago and the rest of the Caribbean during the coming week.

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