LIQUID SUNSHINE

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 20TH DECEMBER 2014

As with last week, Low Pressure is the main influence on the weather.

In fact this is diverting much of the warm trade winds to the north Atlantic and round to the east and northern Europe ... this will cause high levels of rainfall, especially over the UK, this week as the warm air meets the cold air.

So, Tobago's weather continues on last week's theme with dryer than normal conditions although there are some areas of rain showers here and there.

I hope it stays like this in January.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 27TH DECEMBER 2014

Tobago is entering a 3rd week of relatively good weather and the reason is complicated.

The jet-stream over the Atlantic is highly volatile. Currently we have a plunge of cold air going south down the eastern US and then this turns sharply around a mid-Atlantic Depression that pushes warm air north towards Europe and this probably explains the extreme weather conditions around Europe right now.

This jet-stream is blocking the normal trade winds to some degree and bringing weather from the north.

For Tobago this means dry weather, chilly evenings and the risk of heavy seas. There will still be showers, but the risk of this is quite low.

But it looks like it could change by Wednesday next week and we should (I dare say) be back to the normal conveyor belt of sunshine and showers

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 3RD JANUARY 2015

A happy new year to everyone ... this is the first Liquid Sunshine of 2015 and the next 3 weeks will be issued from Castara.

I would try to issue daily updates on the Liquid Sunshine Feedback thread but don't get too excited about this ... the less you hear from me the more I will be enjoying myself.

As expected in last week's weather post the trades have re-established themselves in quite a big way and this is creating very heavy seas across most of the Caribbean.

The Atlantic High is segmented a little by a depression but it is the High that rules with high pressure extending over western Africa and blowing quite dense plumes of Saharan Dust across the Caribbean.

So for Tobago ... the risks of heavy seas and crashing waves on the beaches are high. The risk of daytime rainfall are low and overnight rainfall risk is moderate.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER FROM CASTARA ... 10TH JANUARY 2015 ... 1400 GMT

Overnight rain last night was very heavy. In fact, the last 2 days have been quite cloudy with frequent showers and this has been associated with a 'trough' (or an unseasonal tropical wave) that was weakening but pepped up as it entered the warm Caribbean Ocean.

This morning it is still quite cloudy but I am expecting this to clear up today and the sunshine should be out.

Expect this good weather for the rest of the week. I am hoping that the seas calm down a little.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER FROM CASTARA ... 18TH JANUARY 2015

We have had the lot over the last week. I expected Saturday's weather to give way to more sunshine but a small depression over S.America had other ideas and consequently there were 2 more days of rain, some of it very heavy and turning the bay of Castara into brown as the rivers brought silt and the run-off the cliffs brought even more silt.

It soon cleared up and we have now had 4 consistently good sunny days. Very calm.

It looks like it will stay this way for the week but there is a small risk of rain coming from the east and possibly the south but this looks less likely as the Saharan Dust builds up in the local atmosphere.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 31ST JANUARY 2015

Sorry there was no weather last weekend ... I just could not get on the internet and Sunday was spent in Trinidad.

The weather has been very good over the recent 2 weeks and it looks likely to stay this way.

As always, there are showers around and all the people that I have seen running for cover from the beaches will tell you that they can be quite heavy sometimes ... but that is normal.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 7TH FEBRUARY,2015

The weather looks good.

A very large and dense swathe of saharan dust covers most of the Atlantic and Caribbean and looks set to stay for the week.

This dust is so dense that it is hard to believe that Tobago will even get a shower but with it's own rainforest and own sub-eco-system I am sure that there will be the occasional shower.

At the time of typing it does appear to be a little cloudy here and there but the dust factor will reduce or snuff out any attempts of significant cloud formation although it could be quite hazy.

Enjoy ...


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ...14TH FEBRUARY 2015

The good weather continues ...

The rather unusual presence of 2 troughs to the north of the Caribbean is pushing an airmass south and westwards and this should block off any of the moist air over South America and maintain the fine conditions for at least a few days up to Tuesday.

This airmass is likely to have an impact on the seas conditions, so expect the swells to increase, potentially bringing some large waves to the north and west facing Caribbean side of Tobago.

Otherwise, enjoy the weather... there will always be a few showers.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 21ST FEBRUARY 2015

Not much change from last week.

A trough is bringing cloudy conditions and some rain to northern parts of the Caribbean. It won't reach Tobago.

As always, there will be some showers but this week looks like mostly sunshine with trade winds. Sea conditions moderate.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 28TH FEBRUARY 2015

Due to Tobago's proximity to the South American mainland there is an occasional 'weather curse' that can happen at any time of the year regardless of wet or dry season.

Normally, the strong trade winds during the dry season keep this weather at bay.

However, when the Atlantic high shifts to the east so that it is close to the African coast then the southern most trade winds recede north and/or weaken, allowing the moisture over the Venezuela rainforests to creep north and bring cloudiness and the risk of rain that can be persistent and last for many days over Trinidad, Tobago and as far north as St Lucia depending on it's hold.

This weather situation has been in place for the last 48 hours and there has been some very heavy and persistent rain over Trinidad and, to a lesser extent, Tobago.

It is difficult to know how long this situation will last but we need the Atlantic High to get back to it's central Atlantic position in order to blow away this dull weather.

Hopefully this will happen this week and I will post updates should I see any changes.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 7TH MARCH 2015

The Atlantic High is trying to re-establish itself and a consequence of this is some rather tight pressure gradients between the building High and the Low pressure over the South American mainland.

Of course, tight pressure gradients bring strong winds and this is mostly affecting the south western Caribbean areas but I would not be surprised if the seas also started building up around Tobago this weekend ... another reason can be the gravitational effects of the full moon.

The main thing is the cloudiness should be out of the way as the trade winds bring their influence coupled with a good dose of Saharan Dust to restrict the moisture levels.

Rain and cloud is not far away to the south of Tobago but if the Atlantic High brings it's influence on the Weather then the week ahead looks fine with occasional trade showers.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 14TH MARCH 2015

The situation is very much the same as last week with bit of a battle going on between High pressure to the north and Low pressure to the south.

This bringing very strong trade winds to many southern and central areas of the Caribbean. Also the air is laden with Saharan Dust and this will keep rainfall low.

I would say that the week ahead looks good.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 21ST MARCH 2015

This week brings a few changes.

Low pressure is building over the South American mainland, the Atlantic High has weakened and a trough is working it's way southwards just east of the Caribbean. The Saharan Dust factor has also reduced.

These 4 factors combined increase the risk of rain and I am not talking about Tobago's own eco-system as I did in the Liquid Sunshine Feedback thread midweek.

This is the general situation for the Southern Caribbean. So expect more rain this week.

In addition, very strong winds in the western Atlantic are likely to push swells south over the next few days so expect the seas to pick up, particularly on the Caribbean side.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 28TH MARCH 2015

A 50:50 week ahead.

The low pressure to the south is well to the south, the saharan dust factor is high and this combination means less rain.

The Atlantic High has again been broken up by a depression and it's frontal trough is meandering south over the northern part of the Caribbean bringing higher risks of rain to these areas before it dies out.

With this situation, conditions can change quickly though.

Tobago looks like having fair weather although there does appear to be some cloudiness across the south east Caribbean and I am uncertain about the weather beyond Monday ... hence my 50:50. If the Saharan Dust factor stays strong there is a good week of weather ahead.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 5TH APRIL 2015

Some cloudiness, possibly with some light rain affecting Trinidad and Tobago this morning.

This is what the weather can be like when the low pressure to the south moves closer.

To the north and the east, from where the fresher and clearer weather comes, there is still an ongoing struggle for the High pressure to fully establish itself as another trough moves south over the northern Caribbean.

So it looks like being mixed weather over the next week with changeable conditions although there is a fair amount of Saharan dust in the atmosphere so where rain falls it is not likely to be too heavy.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 11TH APRIL 2015

This week should continue very much like last week.

The low pressure to the south pushed some rain and cloud north over the southern Caribbean the last week but Tobago missed most of it, being well to the east of the moist plumes.

So there is a rain risk generally for the south Caribbean but, of course, difficult to predict exactly where cloud and rain will form ... some could have a very sunny week and others could have a rather dull week.

The Saharan dust influence was broken up last week and redirected over Europe causing high levels of pollution so this factor is currently weak and unlikely to suppress moisture developing.

So ... another 50/50 week and hopefully Tobago will get lucky.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 18TH APRIL 2015

The weather has not been too good in recent days and this is due to low atmospheric pressure which allows clouds to easily form. The lack of Saharan influence is also playing it's part.

So while the trade winds are coming from the east, the weather is coming from the south ... this means cloud and rain and higher humidity.

A trough over the northern Caribbean is also an influence, sucking up the moisture and pulling it from the South American mainland and over the south and eastern Caribbean.

So, for the next few days up to midweek the risk of rain is high although there should be some sunny interludes here and there across the eastern Caribbean ... but not many.

From midweek onwards it is difficult to tell but I would expect the troublesome trough to dissipate and allow high pressure to re-build towards the end of the week, improving the chances of sunshine.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 25TH APRIL 2015

High pressure was short lived last week so the weather has and will remain changeable.

Most of the Caribbean is sandwiched between low atmospheric pressure to the north and south and this can create sharp pressure gradients, wind and consequently high seas in addition to localised areas of rain.

So it is hit and miss this week with some areas of the Caribbean faring worse than others.

Tobago, being close to South America, would be one of the higher risk areas for potential rainfall.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 2ND MAY 2015

Last week's weather turned out very nicely ... all the rain and cloud was pushed to the north and west of the Caribbean as the Atlantic High was displaced further to the east and dragged very dense Saharan Dust over the south and east Caribbean.

It is the best continuous fine weather that Tobago has had for a long time.

It looks like it is going to continue like this at least until mid-week ... enjoy.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 9TH MAY 2015

The Caribbean is split North/South.

Northern areas are a little unsettled and, of course, Sub-Tropical Storm Ana is bringing rain and strong winds to the east coast of Florida ... I reported this earlier last week in the new '2015 Hurricane' topic ... a very early Storm, so could this year's Hurricane season be very active?

The southern and particularly eastern areas of the Caribbean are still enjoying a very prolonged period of fine weather, largely due to dense Saharan Dust in the atmosphere.

This fine and calm weather has lasted about 3 weeks but there are signs that the Dust influence is weakening and this will allow more showers to develop.

So not much change ahead for Tobago this week but more showers ... this is perfectly normal for Tobago.

Regards