LIQUID SUNSHINE

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 29TH NOVEMBER 2009 ... 1815 GMT

It is very cyclonic across the Tropical Atlantic with very slow movement in the airstreams.

In the Caribbean it is generally fine and predominantly dry apart from localised showers, but in the south east Caribbean there is some moisture arising from the South American mainland due to the stagnancy of the airflows.

This is bringing alot of cloudiness and some mainly light rain to Trinidad and Tobago.

It looks like this could hang around for a while but hopefully the weather in Tobago should improve gradually towards the end of the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 6TH DECEMBER 2009 ... 1100 GMT


The weather has calmed down considerably across the whole of the Caribbean with dry air and fine weather everywhere except the far south east where there is some moisture about and this is bringing some cloudiness and rain from time to time.

Although the weather seems fine in Tobago right now it looks like there will be occasional showers or periods of mainly light rain from time to time.

This is due in part to the slow upper airflows and the proximity of South America to Tobago where the afternoon and overnight rains that can drift northwards from time to time.

Otherwise, there should still be plenty of sunshine.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 14TH DECEMBER 2009 ... 1000 GMT


Sorry for the late update ... had internet problems.

It is looking like a classic dry season across the whole of the Caribbean with very dry air extending across the whole area and the Atlantic towards Africa.

The trade winds are quite strong though and this can make the sea a liuttle choppy.

Tobago is right on the edge of the dry air ... I am expecting it to be a good week with plenty of sunshine but there can be a little rain from time to time if any moisture moves up from the South American mainland.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 19TH DECEMBER 2009 ... 2300 GMT


There is alot of exceptional weather all around the Atlantic right now with the jet streams in reverse.

This is bringing an easterly flow to the eastern US (plus snowstorms), wet weather to southern Europe and a very cold easterly/northerly airflow to the UK and the north of Europe ... a consequence of which is the blanket of snow most of the UK is under.

This has a knock on effect with the Atlantic High being pushed a little further south and increasing the gradient of the pressure in the Tropical Atlantic ... the consequence is strong trade winds into the Caribbean.

Then we have Low Pressure over the southern US and a frontal system bringing moisture to the northern Caribbean.

The plume of strong trade winds are bringing exceptionally dry air to the Central Caribbean ... and then, at long last, we come to Tobago ...

The weather has been good so far but there is moisture around and I can see some evidence of rainfall on the sat loops. it seems that the trades are not affecting Tobago that much and this is allowing a little moisture to creep up from Venezuela.

So ... Tobago is on the edge of clement weather and rain so it's looking 50/50 this week.

But spare a thought for us brave ones in the snow!

I will try to do another update before Christmas Day.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

CHRISTMAS UPDATE ... 24TH DECEMBER 2009 ... 1130 GMT

I am just so glad I am not in Tobago to feel that warmth and instead languishing under 6 inches of snow in the UK

Anyway ... all is not quite right in the Caribbean as 2 Low Pressure systems are bring heavy rain in the central Caribbean and it looks like the rainfall is edging west.

The Low over Venezuela is Tobago's problem as this is already giving Trinidad some heavy showers so there is a risk for the next few days of some decent rainfall over Tobago.

Other than that ... there should be plenty of sunshine ... I am pretty sure there won't be any snow or night frosts

Anyway, that's it from me until the New Year unless something unforeseen crops up ... the next post should be around the 2nd/3rd January 2010.

Meanwhile, I hope you have a good Christmas and that you all behave

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 2ND JANUARY 2010 ... 1500 GMT


The New Year has brought freezing weather to the UK and most of Europe so the prospects of air travel disruption are reasonably high for the next 2 weeks for those travelling in or out of Europe.

Unusually, for the Caribbean, a cold frontal trough has brought some cool air down from the US so an east/west split, diagonally from just north of St Lucia to the western tip of Cuba is the difference between the cooler air and warmer air to the south.

This would normally bring quite alot of rain but there is strong High Pressure in the Caribbean and, as a consequence, very dry air.

Some showers could develop along this front over the next few days but it won't come as far south as Tobago.

So it is looking like a good week for Tobago ... just the occasional shower.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 9TH JANUARY 2010 ... 1315 GMT

The main focus of Tobago's weather should be on Europe as there is already considerable travel disruption during this exceptionally cold period of weather.

The mainland of Europe is suffering from blizzard conditions that are expected to move north over the UK this weekend ... I am expecting the freezing conditions to continue for another 2 weeks although the south and west of Europe could get a respite in a week ... this is relevant to anyone travelling to or from Tobago over the next 2 weeks ... expect disruption.

In Tobago there is no snow, ice, frost or any kind of pain, hardship or trauma whatsoever ... and this is all because of the sunshine and occasional showers carried on the trade winds for this week.

Having given this considerable consideration ... I think I would rather be in Tobago this week and it probably explains why most of us go at this time of year ... if you can !!

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 17TH JANUARY 2010 ... 1100 GMT

Although the weather was lovely across most of the Caribbean last week, we must spare a thought for the tragic situation that has developed in Haiti following the earthquake.

This poor country has had the biggest share of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms over the last 3 years and even had 4 hits in a 1 month period ... it just doesn't seem fair that they have had this even more devastating trauma to deal with.

You can make donations towards the relief efforts through arrangements set up in your own country or you can go to http://stormcarib.com/ where a campaign to collect donantions across the Caribbean has been set up.

The weather across most of the Caribbean looks as if it will stay fine with very dry air suppressing any organised rainfall and restricting rain to the lower level showers carried by the strengthening trade winds.

There are 2 exceptions ... the extreme north of the Caribbean where a frontal trough is bringing heavy showers and to the extreme south where there is a risk that showers over Venezuela could bring a few showers to Trinidad & Tobago.

Any of these showers should not bring that much rainfall so the weather should be predominantly fine for the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 24TH JANUARY 2010 ... 2130 GMT

I have held off posting this week's update until the last minute because the weather in the extreme south of the Caribbean (including Tobago) is rather unusual.

The upper airflows are moving from west to east up to the latitude of St Lucia ... the rest of the Caribbean weather is moving in the opposite direction.

Very unusual.

So ... it is very showery from St Lucia southwards and very dry everywhere else.

This has been going on for a few days and I sense this will continue for a few more days.

Expect the showers over Tobago to continue for a few more days at least and then hopefully things will return to normal ... if not, I will post an update midweek.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 30TH JANUARY 2010 ... 1115 GMT

High pressure has been squeezed towards the west over the Caribbean by a large Low in the Atlantic.

This is increasing the pressure gradients and a consequence of this is strong trade winds, slightly more cloudiness and mainly light showers across most of the southern half of the Caribbean.

I have seen some reports in 'Liquid Sunshine Feedback' of heavy seas which are typical for this time of year and I reckon the seas will be quite heavy this week around Tobago.

This week, Tobago can expect fine weather with some cloud and mainly light showers. The air is very dry so I would not expect anything heavy.

So far this has turned out to be a proper dry season.

Back in the UK and Europe the weather is turning cold again for the next 3 weeks so there is a small risk of some disruption to flights towards the end of this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 7TH FEBRUARY 2010 ... 1200 GMT


Most of the Caribbean is very dry but, as is often the case, Trinidad and Tobago are right on the edge of this dry air and there has been some moisture moving up from the South American mainland. There were some very heavy downpours over Trinidad yesterday.

So it's very hit and miss this week ... I am expecting it to be predominantly fair but possibly a little more humid and a higher risk of the occasional downpour which normally happens at night or in the early hours of the morning.

Elsewhere, the cold snap in the UK is not as bad as I thought so there shouldn't be that much disruption to travel although there is a small risk of problems this Wednesday when I think the Virgin and Monarch flights take off.

It's another story on the eastern side of the US with major disruption from snow.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 13TH FEBRUARY 2010 1515 GMT


Most of the Caribbean is as dry as a bone as this exceptional dry season continues.

As with last week, High pressure is dominant and the pressure gradients are very low so there should not be much in the way of trade winds either.

The only risk for Tobago, in this circumstance, is the possibility of moisture coming up from South America ... if the humidity gets oppressive that will be the sign of rain to come.

Otherwise, it looks like wall to wall sunshine ... can't see any changes ... personally I am disgusted because I should have been there now.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 21ST FEBRUARY 2010 ... 1315 GMT

The incredibly dry conditions look like coming to an end this week.

Moisture levels are rising and the humidity should be increasing as a Low Pressure area builds to the south over the South American mainland.

Also, the trades have increased in strength as the pressure gradients between the Low and High pressure to the north tighten ... this brings more in the way of showers.

Not that I think there will be much less in the way of heat and sunshine ... I just sense there will be more in the way of showers for Tobago as the week progresses.

Erm ... it's snowing again in the UK ... some disruption to travel is possible on Wednesday this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 27TH FEBRUARY 2010 ... 1115 GMT


2010 has been a strange year so far with converse weather patterns all over the globe.

Add 2 major earthquake events in Haiti (January) and, this morning, in Chile reading 8.8 ... as I write, Tsunami warnings are in force around the Pacific.

And then there is the Iceberg off the southern coast of Australia which is so big that it is expected to disrupt the underlying sea currents and this could potentially lead to big changes in the weather across the southern hemisphere in years to come.

That is alot of major natural events to occur in just the space of 2 months.

Back in Tobago ... it has been exceptionally hot with little rain in weeks ... I am standing by last weeks prediction of an increase in showers or rainfall as moist air continues to move north/north east off the South American mainland.

There has been some rainfall around but Tobago has missed it ... last night 3 bands of showers moved across the area and Tobago may have had some rain overnight or cloudiness at the very least. Grenada certainly had a downpour.

The moisture levels are increasing so my forecast is pretty much the same as last week ... some rain will come.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 7TH MARCH 2010 ... 1215 GMT


The dry and hot conditions continue ...

This week an unusual feature is a frontal trough extending from the mid-Atlantic right down across the Caribbean over the northern Antilles and down to Costa Rica. This is moving west and has already brought heavy rain to a number of islands, most notably Puerto Rico.

There is a chance that this trough could set off some heavy showers as it tracks west and Tobago could get it's first proper rain by Tuesday although the chances of this are only 50% as Tobago seems to be just a little too far south.

Another feature is the retraction of High Pressure and as the pressure lowers the moisture levels rise and humidity increases ... so there is a gradual increase in the chances of some showers this week, particularly if the trades pick up.

Other than these features there is little else to suggest the hot and sunny weather will come to an end.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 14TH MARCH 2010 ... 1130 GMT

The rain did come last week as a narrow plume of moisture shot off the South American mainland in a north easterly direction. This plume continued for a few days, anything under it would have had continuous wet weather but it's passage was just a to the south of Tobago with the northern edge of the rain a matter of a few miles away from Tobago's south coast.

Southern Trinidad would have got some rain from this but I doubt if Tobago got more than a few light showers. Tobago seems to be condemned to a heavy drought this year.

The moisture is receding again this weekend so it looks like this week will start dry and hot again and there is nothing to suggest that any organised rain will happen until at least mid-week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

MIDWEEK-UPDATE ... 16TH MARCH 2010 ... 2230 GMT


Rain?

Yes rain ... it's on it's way.

Low pressure is building from the south west over the South American mainland and a very large area of moisture is moving north over the Dutch Antilles, Trinidad and Tobago.

So far there is increasing cloud and Trinidad is possibly already getting some rain.

This is a large area of moisture and quite alot of rain will fall ... some of it will be very heavy ... I will be surprised if Tobago escapes this time.

Expect this rain risk to last 2 or 3 days.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 20TH MARCH 2010 ... 2100 GMT


It's dry again ... Last week a large plume of moisture moved north off the South American Mainland and very heavy thunderstorms developed as this moved across the Caribbean Sea reaching countries as far north as Haiti.

The worst of this weather happened to the west of Trinidad & Tobago and I believe that Tobago would have got a few showers at best. So the drought continues.

There may be heat but there are some pretty strong trade winds around the eastern Caribbean so this week should not be as oppressive as in recent weeks but it looks like remaining dry with the occasional shower for the week.

There are signs that the wet season will come (officially in about 2 months) as the ITCZ is moving nearer, storms are getting underway over Africa and we have the predictions of an above average Hurricane Season ahead of us ... but they said that last year didn't they !!

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 28TH MARCH 2010 ... 1230 BST

British Summer Time is here and snow is forecast for parts of the UK this week ... typical !!

Anyway, the extreme drought continues in Trinidad & Tobago, I have noted news reports of 100's of fires and water management systems being set up in many locations. It seems that this is officially the worst drought in decades or in Tobago's history.

Not good at all for the rainforest ... I wonder how it is coping ?!?

There is another problem and this is when the rain finally arrives ... parched land does not absorb rain that easily and this can lead to flash flooding ... furthermore, any significant fire damage could clear areas of plants and trees and this can lead to mudslides (a factor that Tobago is prone to even under normal circumstances).

So here is hoping that the first rains are not too heavy. A major rain event could be catastrophic.

Right now, it seems that the hot and dry conditions continue but this is now being increasingly broken up by plumes of moisture moving off the South American mainland ... I noted a band of cloudiness and (mostly) light rain across most of the southern Caribbean yesterday ... again Tobago may have got little or none of the rain as the heavier showers appear to fall to the west.

Expect this trend to continue ... hot and dry, then cloudiness and hopefully some rain showers ... I cannot see any significant change in the weather patterns at the moment ... but it has to come eventually.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 4TH APRIL 2010 ... 1015 BST


Tobago seems to have had some rain over the last 2 days as a plume of moisture moved up from the South American mainland, though I don't think it amounted to much.

A new pattern seems to be setting in with moderate to strong trade winds ... this should cool things down a little and bring more in the way of sunshine and trade showers for this week.

Regards