2005 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
Post Reply
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3641
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire

Post by Paul Tallet »

That's a bit of old Dennis, Roger.

The high does not really seem like a circulation but it can generally be described as the big black area across the Atlantic ... it lets little weather in and so all the active stuff moves around it's edges ... but you are absolutely right to say that it is keeping Emily to the South.

Update to follow in minutes.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3641
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire

Post by Paul Tallet »

The latest update from Liquid Sunshine ...


WEATHER UPDATE 12th JULY 2005. 2200 BST.

TROPICAL STORM EMILY AND AN INCREASING RISK OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR WEDS/THURS, 14/15TH JULY 2005


That’s it … another late night.

The cheek of it … the NOAA adjust their tracks and then accuse the UK Met (who had it right in the first place) of being on the ‘northerly side’ of their ‘new’ predictions … credit where credit is due eh?


OK … this is the position …

The trend is to track this system increasingly further south … as originally predicted.

The Tropical Storm Watch for Tobago has accordingly been increased to Hurricane Watch.

I agree with the predictions.

My previous advisory remains unchanged albeit with an increased risk of high winds.

Please do not plan anything for Wednesday and Thursday as a precaution … please note that there is virtually no risk of higher tides and surges due to the fact that Tobago will be on the southern side of this system … nevertheless, make sure you have plenty of foodstuff and liquid wherever you are … restaurants may have to close.

… and go scrounge a pack of playing cards off someone … erm … Carib / Stag / Rum Punch … make sure you are well stocked.

But seriously … take the necessary precautions and follow local advice.

Watch this space … I will post updates as soon as anything changes.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
Julia C.
Oh, so Sad!
Oh, so Sad!
Posts: 225
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2004 2:15 pm
Location: Bucks UK

Post by Julia C. »

How close will Emily get to Tobago? Any ideas?

If you're in self catering and read this stock up on candles too.
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3641
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire

Post by Paul Tallet »

Hi Julia

i will let you know in about half an hour.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
Pat Murray

2005 Hurricane Season

Post by Pat Murray »

We will be arriving in Tobago on Saturday night. What does it look like for then? I am awfully nervous about this because I have been through a couple of hurricanes when I lived in Houston but never on an island. Do you see anything for next week?

I sure appreciate all the updates you are giving. I am glad I found this site and you are willing to give up your nonwork time to keep us advised of the situation.
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3641
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire

Post by Paul Tallet »

Hi Pat

No worries for Saturday.

Your landing should be more therapeutic than the white knuckle ride that Roger is anticipating.

Under current circumstances it is too difficult to make accurate predictions a week ahead.

Doing my final update before the morning (UK time).

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3641
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire

Post by Paul Tallet »

The latest warning in Liquid Sunshine regarding 'Emily'.


WEATHER UPDATE 13th JULY 2005. 0100 BST.

AN INCREASING RISK OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR WEDS/THURS, 14/15TH JULY 2005


I remain disappointed with the Official Forecasters.

The update they promised has not arrived and their forecast tracks are outdated and out of range.

I have checked the media press and there is no mention of what is to come.

So know the latest …

This is my last post tonight and I will provide another update first thing later this morning (UK BST).

I have watched the system for the last several hours.

The outer convective bands are about 200 miles east of Tobago and therefore the first signs of approach will be some showery outbreaks of rain within 14 hours of this update. Barbados will get the first taste in the next few hours.

The winds will start to pick up.

The system is tracking more south than west and therefore (in answer to Julia’s question) this will be close … at the very least I expect Tobago to have Tropical Storm conditions by Wednesday night.

This system is not yet a Hurricane although some recent strong convective bursts around it’s centre indicate to me that development towards Hurricane status is close.

I have suspected that the system will track just to the north of Tobago but the hurricane area will be small (probably only 50 miles wide and increasing) but as I expect Emily to track a little further north as she passes I sense that Tobago will avoid the worst of any Hurricane experience.

Emily’s rain will cover a wide area and Tobago will have some heavy rain late Wednesday and also into Thursday.

I am concerned for Grenada.

Emily is a big girl and her weather will affect wide areas … she looks set to take a course through the majority of Caribbean Islands and the signs are that she could be the 2nd major Hurricane of this extraordinarily active season.


Update in about 8 hours.


Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3641
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire

Post by Paul Tallet »

WEATHER UPDATE 13th JULY 2005. 0815 BST.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS IMMINENT


The Official forecasters have continued to adjust Emily’s forecast track further and further to the south … only yesterday Emily was forecast to go north of Barbados !!

But now Emily has tracked even further south than I and the UK Met were predicting … I soon got my wake up call when I checked the Satellite Loops this morning.

Emily is still a Tropical Storm with sustained winds speeds of over 60 mph … this is close to Hurricane strength and Hurricane development is likely before or while the centre of Emily passes over or close by Tobago late today or tonight.

The first of the heavy rain bands look likely to reach Tobago within the next 6 hours … conditions will be starting to deteriorate in the next few hours.

Unless Emily has a major ‘wobble’ to the north I feel confident in predicting hurricane conditions across Tobago towards the evening, overnight and into Thursday.

The Government of Trinidad has upgraded their advice to Hurricane Warning for Tobago. Trinidad is likely to find itself in a similar position.

Emily is forecast to be a major hurricane but I do not know how strong a hurricane she will be during her passage over Tobago … will have a better idea in the next 6 to 8 hours.

I therefore strongly recommend that all precautions are taken to secure property as soon as possible.

As Emily has tracked so far south there is a risk of storm surge of around 3 – 5 feet and therefore all precautions should be taken to clear the beaches of fishing boats and any sea level accommodations should be evacuated … as a precaution.

Flights are likely to be disrupted.

Expect periods of very intense rainfall and high winds up until early Friday morning.


I will update in the next 6 to 8 hours.

Best of luck Tobago.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3641
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire

Post by Paul Tallet »

WEATHER UPDATE 13th JULY 2005. 1015 BST.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS IMMINENT


Barbados downgraded to Tropical Storm Warning.

Hurricane Warning still in effect for Tobago and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for Trinidad and parts of the northern coast of Venezuela.

Emily seems to be tracking more west and (unless there is a wobble) on target for Tobago.

The first band of rain is now affecting Tobago … much heavier rain is 2 to 3 hours behind.

Conditions will start to deteriorate soon.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
Wendy Taylor

Post by Wendy Taylor »

Paul Tallet wrote:WEATHER UPDATE 13th JULY 2005. 1015 BST.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS IMMINENT


Barbados downgraded to Tropical Storm Warning.

Hurricane Warning still in effect for Tobago and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for Trinidad and parts of the northern coast of Venezuela.

Emily seems to be tracking more west and (unless there is a wobble) on target for Tobago.

The first band of rain is now affecting Tobago … much heavier rain is 2 to 3 hours behind.

Conditions will start to deteriorate soon.

Regards
Paul, my daughter and her friends are currently in Tobago on holiday. I think they are staying somewhere near Mount St George, which is on the Atlantic side of the island near Scarborough. She's texted me to ask me to find out how serious it is and what she should do. I've given her all the standard advice for hurricanes, but wonder if buildings are substantial or whether there are hurricane shelters. Where would I be best looking to get up to date information?

Wendy
Tony J
Tobago Guru
Tobago Guru
Posts: 28
Joined: Fri May 07, 2004 4:43 pm
Location: UK.

Post by Tony J »

Dear Wendy

Your daughter should tune into the local radio station and listen out for broadcasts. If she is staying at a hotel then they will look after them, if in a villa, look for a telephone directory as there are emergency instructions in the front pages.

She should pack emergency provisions such as water, food, medicine, change of clothes, torch etc into a bag should they need to evacuate.

There are storm shelters around this area, but she will need to speak to the locals as to where the nearest one is. The local radio will broadcast messages and up to date forcasts.

They should stay put and not venture out unless absolutely necessary. If there are any trees near the property, stay in a room well away from the closet ones incase one falls.

If the storm does come over Tobago, they may lose power, water and telephone connections for a while so they should be prepared for the worse.

I have spoken to some friends in Tobago and all are going out this morning to buy their storm provisions.

Our thoughts are with all in Tobago

Kind regards

Sara
Tony J
Tobago Guru
Tobago Guru
Posts: 28
Joined: Fri May 07, 2004 4:43 pm
Location: UK.

Post by Tony J »

I have found the NEMA website and the URL for the shelter list is below should anyone need it

http://www.nema.gov.tt/resources/downlo ... s_list.pdf

The shelters listed are schools and community centres

This site is also listing up to date information on the warnings

Regards

Sara
Wendy Taylor

Post by Wendy Taylor »

Tony J wrote:Dear Wendy

Your daughter should tune into the local radio station and listen out for broadcasts. If she is staying at a hotel then they will look after them, if in a villa, look for a telephone directory as there are emergency instructions in the front pages.

She should pack emergency provisions such as water, food, medicine, change of clothes, torch etc into a bag should they need to evacuate.

There are storm shelters around this area, but she will need to speak to the locals as to where the nearest one is. The local radio will broadcast messages and up to date forcasts.

They should stay put and not venture out unless absolutely necessary. If there are any trees near the property, stay in a room well away from the closet ones incase one falls.

If the storm does come over Tobago, they may lose power, water and telephone connections for a while so they should be prepared for the worse.

I have spoken to some friends in Tobago and all are going out this morning to buy their storm provisions.

Our thoughts are with all in Tobago

Kind regards

Sara
Okay, that's pretty much what I suggested anyway, plus ringing the airline tomorrow re her flight home on Friday. Thanks very much for your response.

I'll be thinking of them and worrying until I hear more news.

Wendy
Douglas R

Post by Douglas R »

I was in Antigua when Georges hit in 1998 and would recommend that it would be a wise precaution for people to keep their passport, airline tickets etc in their possession in a waterproof bag at all times until the emergency passes.
Wendy Taylor

Post by Wendy Taylor »

Douglas R wrote:I was in Antigua when Georges hit in 1998 and would recommend that it would be a wise precaution for people to keep their passport, airline tickets etc in their possession in a waterproof bag at all times until the emergency passes.
Didn't think of the waterproof bag, but did tell her to pack her valuables up ready to leave quickly if necessary.

http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/hurric ... index.html
shows a map with current projections. I'm not sure I'm reading it correctly, but it seems to imply that they're on the edge of the area likely to be hit and possibly not til Saturday. Is that right?

Wendy
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3641
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire

Post by Paul Tallet »

Sorry Guys

Had to do some work and been away for the last 5 hours.

Will be posting updates shortly.

Regards

Paul
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3641
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire

Post by Paul Tallet »

WEATHER UPDATE 13th JULY 2005. 1630 BST.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS IMMINENT


No change to the strength of Emily and I wonder of the proximity of the Venezuelan mainland could be a factor in this, yet that does make sense because the circulation banding appears to be stronger around the south of the Storm nearest to the mainland.

The north side of Emily has more sporadic and less intense rainfall but I sense that one more convective burst in the north quadrants will complete the full circulation before Hurricane status is achieved.

Tobago is now under the north west band of Emily and although there has been very heavy rain it is not been as persistent as the Storm quadrants to the south.

I also believe that the winds are not as bad over Tobago although this could soon change with little warning as the centre of Emily passes over (or extremely close to) Tobago this evening and tonight … or indeed if Emily finally decides to track more to the north and brings the southern quadrants over Tobago.

A lot can happen over the next 12 to 18 hours.

I will continue to post updates.


Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
Neil Roberts
myTobago Nut
myTobago Nut
Posts: 89
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 1:28 pm
Location: Leatherhead, Surrey.

Tomorrow???

Post by Neil Roberts »

Dear Paul, Do you have any feeling about whether the Excel flight will be likely to get to Tobago tomorrow.?? Your opinion as ever would be appreciated! All the best and thanks for your reports, Neil Roberts.
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3641
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire

Post by Paul Tallet »

Neil

Wish I could help.

It is possible that there could be flight delays/disruption.

It is always best to go to your Travel Operator.

If I or anyone else finds anything out, though ... we would be the first to let you know.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3641
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire

Post by Paul Tallet »

WEATHER UPDATE 13th JULY 2005. 1915 BST.

HURRICANE RISKS REDUCING ?


This could be good news … but I am not so sure at this stage.

The Official Forecasters have downgraded their warnings because Emily has not strengthened in the last 24 hours.

Her strength has not diminished, particularly on the south side of the Storm.

There have been no new convective bursts and she does look a little disorganised … however she could reorganise very quickly and still remains a potentially dangerous Tropical Storm just short of Hurricane strength as she has been for the last 24 hours.

I could accept these theories if the north side of the Storm was strong … that would make sense.

I recommend everyone takes the Hurricane precautions to be on the safe side … it is dangerous to downgrade warnings when events over the next 12 hours could change considerably for the worse.

That said … I hope they are right and that Emily will reach Hurricane status after she has passed Tobago.


Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
Post Reply

Return to “Weather”