2005 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Dianne

The track of Rita is being continually adjusted to the east (or north) as I was predicting.

I sense that Rita could make landfall just to the east of Houston around the Sabine River and Beaumont district and looks likely to track along the Sabine River area inland although Rita will weaken quickly as she moves inland ... although the winds will still be quite keen I think the main concern for inland areas will be heavy rains and possible flooding because Rita is not moving very quickly.

Galveston looks less likely to take a direct hit but Galveston's geographical aspect makes the low lying Island very vulnerable and I hope residents in this area are taking no chances.

My main worry is the storm surge along the coasts near the point of landfall ... the sea is quite shallow off the Texas Coast and Rita's central pressure is very low (currently around 914 mb) and could lower further ... these factors could bring considerable flooding to the coastal landfall areas.

It must be very traumatic for everybody concerned and particularly for those that have already lost their homes in New Orleans.

At least there is an improved state of readiness and hopefully Rita's legacy will not be as damaging as Katrina's.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Rita Update

There are alot of conflicting media reports that Rita is moving more to the east and then more to the west which is most unhelpful under the current circumstances.

The position is simple ... Rita is wobbling about on her track due to an eyewall recycle that is almost complete ... landfall looks likely to be near the Sabine River estuary as I indicated in my last post, but she could surprise us.

As I predicted earlier, she has tracked a little to the north which means that New Orleans is already receiving heavy rain and strong winds. The centre of Rita has now passsed to the south of New Orleans and I do not expect the conditions to deteriorate any further although the rain will continue for some time.

For northern Texas and western Louisiana the prospects look quite grave but at least people are taking heed ... evacuation attempts have not been helped by the closure of one of the main routes out due to a Coach fire.

Rita could strengthen a little now that her eyewall recycle is completing and I am hoping that another eyewall recycle takes place that will weaken Rita a little as she approaches land within the next 24 hours.

The visible sat loops are not ready yet but I will have a better idea of the position by this evening (UK time) once I have checked the visible pictures that give me a much clearer indication of the Hurricane's progress and status.

For now ... I feel very bad seeing the plight of those evacuating the coastal areas but relieved that they are seeking safety ... this is an awful thing to see ... I hope that Rita weakens after 12 hours.

My vigil continues ...

[Jane H]

Hi Paul

A while ago you gave us some websites to visit which showed satellite pictures of the weather systems in the Caribbean area. I think it was about the time of Emily.

Any chance you could give them again - I forgot to bookmark them.

Thanks

Jane

[Paul Tallet]

Jane

Try the following ...

For the Floaters which give you a close up ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

That one is the Visible one.

For Infra-red go to ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


The Storm Carib site is also quite good with lots of colourful pictures ... I think there is a link to it in the weather section of myTobago but here it is ...


http://stormcarib.com/index.htm#disc

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Rita Weakening

Judging by the initial Visible Sat Loops I sense that Rita has weakened as she has gone through a couple of eyewall recycles.

There is still a little way to go (about 12 hours) and the possibility of strengthening but this seems unlikely as the eye appears to have closed and it would take something special for Rita to regenerate her former power in a short space of time.

Rita is still a strong Hurricane (Cat 3) ... at least not Cat 5.

The track does not appear to have changed.

Keeping my fingers crossed ... will update soon when I have a full set of Vis Loops to look at.


Back on the Farm ...

... so to speak ...

... there is a cluster of trouble brewing east of Tobago in the form of a Tropical Wave ... Heavy Rain ... ETA Sunday or late Saturday ... will monitor this and comment fully in the weekly update tomorrow morning.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Rita Starts to Strengthen Again

Worrying signs ...

Rita is looking more organised after her eyewall recycles ... this is evident from the Visible Sat Loops.

The Infra Red Loops show ominous signs that new convective bursts are forming close to Rita's centre (right now a new burst is developing to the west of the centre) and this is the strongest indication that strengthening is taking place.

I cannot see the prospect of another eyewall recycle taking place in the next 6 to 8 hours before landfall and it is simply down to the hospitality of the local environment to prevent strengthening ... I think not.

The track ... still steering more to the north ... landfall looks increasingly likely to the East of the Sabine Estuary.

What are the consequences?

The more northerly track is steering more rainbands across New Orleans ... the wind is not much of an issue for New Orleans although this city could do without more rain.

If Rita strengthens as I suggest then the more northerly track is relevant only to the central point of impact where there will be certain devastation but relatively academic along the rest of the risk areas simply because the damage will be more widespread (i.e.; this is now a large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending out as far as 80 - 90 miles in the quadrants on all sides).

This is my last update before Rita makes landfall in the next 6 to 8 hours.

I hope I am wrong about my predictions ...

[Paul Tallet]

Quick Rita Update

... one of my predictions were unfortunately wrong judging by the latest media reports about 2 breaches of the levees around New Orleans.

If the '2 metre' surge over these levees is anything to go by then there is the indicator of the (surely higher) surges I have been worried about for the Coastal regions of Texas and Western Louisiana.

[Roger D.]

Hi Paul;
Your weather forecasts are amazing, so detailed. Maybe Steve W. may want to start mytobago TV ?
I have a couple of questions for you, What is an eye wall recycle ?
What causes it?
Is it safe to assume that as the pressure withing a hurricane falls, does this signify that the hurricane is strengthening?
As always Thank You !
Roger.

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Roger

Thank you for your kind words.

In order to really understand this you need to know more about why eyes exist in Hurricanes and a good, but rocket scientist version, can be found here …

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A11.html

There is a plethora of information about Hurricanes on this site.

But to answer your questions directly …

The proper term for ‘eyewall recycles’ as I (being a true amateur) put it, is ‘Concentric eyewall cycles’.

These phenomena normally happen in powerful Hurricanes of Category 3 status or higher.

The band of clouds immediately around the eye are often the most intense and they tend to suck a lot of moisture out of the eye which causes the Hurricane to weaken and can even lead to the collapse of the eye.

Many of the most powerful storms form an outer eye when this happens and the outer eye can completely replace the old inner eye … it has been known for Hurricanes to regenerate to their former intensity after this.

In the case of Rita, she has just completed a couple of eyewall recycles but it does not look like she will regain her former Category 5 intensity before landfall.

Well here’s hoping she won’t, but I sense she will regain a little power.

Regarding the pressure … if it falls the hurricane strengthens and if it rises the hurricane should weaken … Eyewall recycles often lead to a reduction in the pressure.

It is important to remember that other geographical and environmental factors have some influence in a Hurricane’s power and ability to cause destruction.

In Rita’s case, she has previously reached a very low pressure around 897 mb and this reading has probably caused the heavy surge around New Orleans.

She is now around 930 mb.

The subsequent rise in pressure does not necessarily mean that Rita will be any less damaging because the power generated by the 897 mb drop would have been quite awesome and will have a widespread affect on high tides all around the Gulf.

I hope this helps.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Rita's Choice

I am so worried about this Hurricane that I have stayed up.

Rita has shifted a little further to the north.

Landfall is expected within 2 hours of this post although we must not forget that the landfall area is already being subjected to violent weather conditions.

It looks like Rita has chosen an area just east of the Sabine Estuary towards Calcasieu Lake ... the districts of Holly Beach, Cameron and Oak Grove look most likely to have the 'eye experience'.

I am keeping these locations in my thoughts and I hope anyone that has stayed there to ride the storm is safe.

Rita still appears to be strengthening but there have been no updates regarding her intensity in the last 3 hours (which I find a little strange!)

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Rita Lands

Rita made landfall just to the east side of the Sabine River a few hours ago as a strong Cat 3, bordering Cat 4 Hurricane.

The heavy convective bursts that I had seen developing around the eye were right around the west and north quadrants which is an indication that Rita was strengthening and a delay of a few hours before landfall could have been worse.

Rita is like to move up the Sabine river basin and will provide plenty of rain as she slows down.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Rita's Rain

Rita is is now clearing the coast and moving on up the Sabine River basin to dump loads of rain.

Texas will have some flooding issues over the next 48 to 72 hours.

In hindsight ... I got all my predictions right except one ... I really did not think that New Orleans' levees would break again.

This is my last post on Rita, unless anyone has any queries.

There are two more months to go in this very active season so dare say I will be reporting again in the near future.

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hi Paul;
Excellent explaination, as always, thank you and you consider yourself an
amateur?
Here's another question
What are your predictions for the rest of the season?
A while back you said that this week or maybe last, there was alot of Saharan dust blowing off the African Continent and that this may squash any cyclonic development in the near term. What are conditions like now in the Atlantic/Caribbean, are conditions condusive for Cyclonic development?
Roger.

[Bob White]

Thanks as always for these informative hurricane updates Paul. We now log on here for accuracy rather than rely on the usual media sources.

Like Roger, interested in the next few weeks as we have friends heading out to Tobago in a few weeks time.

Regards,

Bob.

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Roger / Bob

The season has 2 more months to run up to the last day of November and it has been known for the odd rogue storm to develop even in December ... there was a Tropical Storm just before the official start of the current season.

Most of the activity in any season tends to occur in September and October and this indicates that there is plenty to come in an exceptionally active season.

As for exactly what and when I wish I could tell ... but I sense that there will be at least 6 more developments of which at least 2 of these will develop into something significant.

I have said before that Tobago should be ready ... there have been 3 close calls in a year with Ivan, Dennis and Emily ... Tobago should no longer think that it is too far south to be affected by Storms, particularly during active seasons such as 2005.

A key feature of the 2005 season is that little development has occurred in the mid-Atlantic and where development has started the conditions have not been quite right and the Storm development breaks down ... Philippe is a good example of this.

But conditions in or just to the east of the Caribbean have been absolutely perfect and this is why there have been such explosive storms such as Katrina, Emily, Dennis and more lately, Rita.

Regarding the Saharan Dust ... this has been a common feature this season and it certainly has contributed to the lack of development in the mid-Atlantic ... the reason is that the Atlantic High has been positioned more to the east of the Atlantic this year and this does occasionally blow some plumes of Saharan Dust down to the south to mix with the Tropical weather.

There have been some weeks of very hazy weather across the whole of the Caribbean this year when the dust has travelled across the Atlantic ... you can actually see it on the Visible Sat Loops as a type of blur, but it never lasts long as each Tropical Wave brings different weather.

There have been about 3 Tropical Waves each week.

The one thing I am hoping for towards the end of this season is for the ITCZ to go south (as it should) and not cause the problems of last November with devastating rains and then prolonged rainy periods extending right into mid-January 2005.

I hope this helps chaps

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hi Paul;
The site you posted on eye wall recycles is quite informative. Thank you.
This time around I hope your predictions for the reaminder of the huriccane season do not come to pass....But I'm sure we are staying tuned to this "station" for your informative updates..here's another question for you.
There is one thing that I'm still puzzled about. The last time Tobago was directly hit by a hurricane was in 1963, hurricane Flora. From that time to now, about 40 years, there has not been any significant Tropical Storms or Hurricanes that came near Tobago, except for one, which passed between Trinidad and Tobago and slammed into Venezuela in the late 90's.
What is causing these hurricanes to pass so close to Tobago and Trinidad after such a long period. Does Global Warming have a part to play in this or is it some sort of cycle?
Your number one fan
Roger

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Roger

Yes, Hurricane Flora was quite small when her eye passed over Tobago at 1340 (local time) on the 30th September 1963 with sustained winds of 100 mph and a central pressure of 974 mb.

I understand 17 people were killed, probably due to the fact that the first Hurricane Advisory was issued at 1100, although an earlier warning was given by a Navy vessel around 1000 ... so that gave everyone 3 hours to run to the hills.

That was during an active period when Tobago is always more likely to catch one of these storms, although the area around Tobago is probably better defined as a 'spawning ground' for most Storms.

The most recent active period has been from 1995 so if you look at the last 10 years you will see how close Hurricanes and Tropical Storms have come:-


1995 ... Hurricane Marilyn passed over Barbados on the 14th September.

1996 ... Hurricane Cesar spawned over Grenada as a Tropical Depression.

1997 ... nothing of note, a quiet year.

1998 ... nothing came near.

1999 ... nothing came near.

2000 ... A weakening Tropical Storm Joyce on 1st October.

2001 ... Tropical Storm Jerry came close on 9th October.

2002 ... Isadore passed as a Tropical Depression on 14th September ... I think this is the one you are referring to that tracked over Venezuela ... quite rare.

2003 ... Claudette tracked over Barbados as a Tropical Depression.

2004 ... Very active ... Hurricane Charley as a Tropical Depression on 9th August.
Tropical Storm Earl as a Tropical Depression on 15th August.
And the famous Hurricane Ivan around the 7th September.
All three of these followed a similar track to the north of Tobago.

2005 ... Dennis and Emily, both in July.

The majority of these Storms were all in their early stages of development as they passed Tobago.

Global warming could have an indirect part to play ... more storms can occur but when more storms occur they can affect more areas.

The 2005 season is distinctive by the warm sea temperatures but hardly anything has spawned in the mid-Atlantic ... isn't that strange?

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hi Paul;
Very interesting facts. I did not realise that so many passed in close proximity to Tobago. I hope that this year's trend does not carry over to the next.
The last two Hurricane's, Katrina and Rita had a very interesting track, over Florida and into the Gulf, where they have become quite deadly and for that matter this season has been as you say, a bit strange.
I'll be sure to stay tuned.
Once again thanks. I've been conducting my experiments on storm surges that you taught me quite regularly.
Roger.

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Roger

I guess that is why Hurricanes are so interesting.

When you look at whole seasons and see their tracks, there are many that follow the same paths ... if you get one you could have two or three.

I wonder if this mystery will ever be solved about Hurricanes.

Keep up the experiments

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

For the record ... this update refers to an interesting Tropical Wave in the Atlantic and the Tropical Storm Tammy just off Florida.

We could get to 'Alpha' at this rate in 2005.


WEATHER UPDATE

5TH OCTOBER 2005. 2215 BST.

HEAVY RAIN

So far this week, Tobago has been very lucky indeed.

There has been an expansive and growing trough to the north and east since the weekend.

I predicted that the risk of rain would increase but it has been slow coming.

Today has been a grotty day across the whole of the Caribbean, apart from Tobago of course, with Tropical Storm Tammy worrying Florida … a suspicious circulation forming just of the Mexican Yucatan peninsular and plenty of rain everywhere else.

Now Tobago is receiving the first of the rains that have been building to the north and east.

It will be on and off but this rainy period could last a while, a few days.

Then we have a vigorous Tropical Wave to the East … more rain? … quite likely, yes … but after? … Drier … there is a huge load of African Dust following this Wave … not yet sure how it could manifest itself over the Caribbean … we shall see.

So … to put all my gibberish into some kind of sense … unsettled from now and through the weekend and prospects of a drier and sunnier slot next week.


Regards