2005 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

For the record ...


WEATHER UPDATE

6TH OCTOBER 2005. 2000 BST.

PROSPECT OF STORMY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND / EARLY NEXT WEEK

Since yesterday’s update … the weather has started to really mobilise over the Eastern Caribbean in the last 24 hours.

The rain prospects that I have predicted have decreased … that’s the good news.

The action is to the East … this is the vigorous Tropical Wave that I have been talking about … this has now developed into a Depression and looks like it could develop further into a Tropical Depression or Storm/Hurricane … could be known as ‘Vince’.

The system is currently at a low latitude of 9N and around 45 degrees West.

It’s forward speed has increased over the last 24 hours to around 20 knots, the Official Forecasters have latched onto it and are posting indications of Storm development within 24 hours.

Will it continue west or could it go more to the north?

That is the question …

The trend is west which threatens Tobago … earlier today I sensed more to the north due to the fact that the High pressure has receded to the north.

But the northerly track takes this system into strong shear against the trough that has been producing rains to the east of Tobago all week.

This makes me feel that this system’s survival requires a westward track.

A westerly track indicates another potential Storm or Hurricane scare for Tobago during the mid to late part of the weekend.

In a nutshell … this system currently poses a low risk threat to Tobago and the risk increases quickly for as long as it maintains a westerly track.

If it goes more to the North it will be sheared away.

I will be monitoring and updating every several hours or so … it is early days … but only a few days away, either way.

Keep checking my updates.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Could not resist copying this to the Hurricane String.

Big surprise ... Tropical Storm Vince off the south west coast of Portugal and moving north east !!



WEATHER UPDATE – 9th OCTOBER 2005 … 1900 BST.


Here is an update on the Weekly post I made yesterday.

This is a very active week with plenty of surprises and I have fallen off my chair at least twice today as developments have taken place.

The potent depressions forming to the east of Tobago seem to be being pegged back by a non tropical depression forming in the middle of the Caribbean over the Puerto Rico area.

This depression has formed a huge swathe of very intense rain that is expanding to the south and the west … Tobago has already had some showers from this and the rain risk is now increasing as the system edges closer.

But the rain is quite relentless over the middle and eastern Caribbean … I do not expect Tobago to get the brunt but this is getting quite close.

This is slowing down the general predictions I made and therefore further updates are likely required as this volatile week progresses.

Short lived Tropical Depression 22 formed south west of Bermuda … that was one surprise.


Here is the big surprise of the week and probably the surprise of the last few decades …

Tropical Storm Vince … where is he?

Not in the Tropical Atlantic … not in the Caribbean … not even in the eastern Pacific.

He is the vigorous depression I referred to in yesterday’s weekly update … just off the western coast of Portugal !!

Having got back up off the floor I see that Vince has sustained wind speeds of 50 mph and he is full of tropical characteristics !!

What is the climate coming to?

I would not even put my big toe in the freezing waters off the coasts of Portugal … Vince is a hardy character I guess.

The BBC’s pressure charts have no sign of this … but he is there and moving north east and predicted to merge with a north Atlantic Depression.

So the weather looks interesting along the northern Portugese, Spanish and west coast of France … and then the UK perhaps.

I will watch Vince like a hawk.



Regards everyone …

[Paul Tallet]

Just fallen off my chair again.

Vince is now a Hurricane ... moving north east.

The prospects of sustaining hurricane status for much more than the next several hours are remote in the extreme, due to 'big toe warmth sapping cold seas' ... but looking at the weather models for western Europe over the next 5 days ... I sense that some interesting weather is coming.

I will keeping watching this rare phenomenon.

Regards

[Kevin Hampson]

Hi Paul,
looks like you need a safety belt on that chair of yours.

We are off to BWI again on the 22nd, so I hope your not planning to cook anything too suprising this year.

Regards
Kevin

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Kevin

You could speculate that Tobago is a better choice than Lisbon over the next few days.

Vince is still maintaining Hurricane status ... surely not for much longer.

The only surprise for Tobago is that the weather (locally) has been very good despite extremely unsettled conditions ... this will change in the next day or so.

Lets hope it is all clear for your arrival.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Tropical Storm Vince

Vince is just about to make landfall around the Algarve region of Portugal.

An extremely rare event that could only occur in an active season.

Regards

[Andy D]

Fascinating stuff Paul, sounds like 2005 is going to be quite an active year, lets hope they all miss Tobago. I was wondering if you knew what the coldest temperature recorded in Tobago is? Most people are aware how warm it is there as it's tropical obviously but have there ever been freak lower temps that you're aware of? ,cheers,Andy.

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Andy

Occasionally you get a cold snap normally in the dry season between December and May ... just a little chill in the air when the trade winds are going strong and the air temperature can dip as low as around 20 degrees celsius.

But that is rare and only happens during the night.

One thing that is nice about cooler air temperatures is that the sea feels warmer.

If you rise in the early hours (around sunrise) when the air temperatures are at their lowest ... the sea feels really warm and (for snorkellers and divers) there are some rare treats to see as the undersea life 'daytime shift' awakes.

Cheers

[Paul Tallet]

Wilma?

There has been a development to the west of Jamaica that I referred to in yesterday's Liquid Sunshine weekly update.

Tropical Depression 24 has formed and early indications are for a Hurricane risk to the Caymans and western Cuba (initially) and prospects of Storm activity in the Gulf later.

Hopefully the Gulf States will be on alert for this one that looks set to be a big feature later this week.

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hi Paul;
I just read the Trinidad Express and Guardian. There were reports of 20 ft waves at Maracas Bay, Trinidad and other Reports of unusually heavy surf along the west and north coasts of Tobago. Is there some sort of weather feature associated that caused this ? Change in wind direction maybe ?
Roger

[Paul Tallet]

Wilma and Roger

Not sure that sounds right

Anyway, Roger, how observant of you ... quite right ... the vast depression in the central Caribbean has been churning wind and (consequent) waves in a more westerly direction and, of course, Tobago is in the way ... it does not happen that often.

The waves are currently about the 1.6 metre height but should reduce to less than 1 metre within 12 hours ... sorry surfers!!

The vast depression I have spoken about has now produced Tropical Storm 'Wilma' which I am now watching.

Tobago has had a bad day with heavy rain associated with the ITCZ today but now clearing away.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Wilma Getting Stronger


Quite typical ... the forecasters say west or north west and then what does Wilma do? ... she goes south !!

Anyway, it seems that this lady is getting more predictable (agreeable?) and she is starting to turn more to the west and is likely to curve round to the north and north east eventually ... at least Belize can take some comfort from this as Wilma's early and irrational behaviour was causing some worries in this area.

The main thing is ... Wilma is strengthening, readings have been taken that suggest she could already be Hurricane status and I guess she could be a major Hurricane before she gets into the Gulf ... that assumes she avoids landmasses such as the eastern edge of the Yucatan and then, as she curves back towards the east, the western tip of Cuba ... who knows, she may not even go there if she persists with her erratic behaviour ... but then that is so typical of major storms in their early stages.

The Gulf is not quite right at the moment ... warm seas alright, but not much favour in the upper airflows ... Wilma could peak in the next few days ... but as we know, things can change ... it will be interesting if she makes it to the Gulf ... Katrina, Rita ... and now Wilma !! ... What will they say?

Wilma is the 21st Storm in 2005 ... that is a record for any season ... I will check that statistic in due course when I get time to go into the archives.

I sense that the current season could extend into December if the Sea Temperatures stay high ... there is often some late activity in active seasons ... I just long for the dry season when I can get back to the usual mundane weather forecasts

Oh well ... here's for happy holidays ... if the oil doesn't run out, you may get lucky and find the plane to take you there for starters ... and then who cares? ... you just hope there won't be enough oil to take the trip back, I guess ... what a thought ...

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hi Paul;
I'm off to Tobago next week for six days and now you say the hurricane season can extend to December Any long term forecasts on the horizon? I shall continue those experiments on storm surges and keep my "spirits" high.

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Roger

It is pretty active at the moment and so difficult to see what is coming up.

Make sure you keep up those experiments and the 'stronger your spirit' ... the better .

Keep watching the updates ... I will keep you in mind.

I could even do a 6 day 'Roger Special' ... track your weather all the way ... how about that !!

Regards (looking for challenges !)

[Roger D.]

Hi Paul;
Yes, the six day "Roger special" would be fab - I'll even try to do a six day liquid sunshine post - how's that !
I think I read some where in the forum that there's internet access at Tobago Plantations, if not, I saw alot of internet cafe's around the last time I was there so I'll try to make a post.
Here's to keeping my spirits up -
Cheers
Roger.

Oh, what's up with your lastest ranking of "get a life"

[Steve Wooler]

Hi Roger

Yes, there's an Internet machine in the foyer of the Hilton.

Have a wonderful holiday.

[Roger D.]

Hi Steve !
Thank You very much.
I intend to have a great holiday. It rained for a week straight in the North-East. It's 50F outside at the moment and starting to get a bit depressing. I cannot wait to feel the sun again in that magical land of Tobago.

Roger.

[Paul Tallet]

Roger and Wilma Updates

Roger, let me know where you are flying from and when and I will track it.

Just noticed the 'Get a Life' ... well I suppose if I can visit Tobago occasionally, track hurricanes, openly discuss my underwear (have you found those shirts Steve?) and post a load of gibberish about weather in this forum, then why should I 'get a life' ?

Wilma ... she is winding up nicely now and borderline hurricane status ... I heard a Radio 5 broadcast answering my earlier question that it is 72 years since 21 storms last developed in the Caribbean in one season.

She has been going south and is now almost stationary but likely to move west and arc round to the north and north east and affect western Cuba. There is a possibility that Wilma will visit Florida within a week.

A potentially powerful hurricane but I am not sure that the power will be sustained all the way to Florida.

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hi Paul;
Flying out of JFK, N.Y. on October 27th, arriving at Piarco at 13:45, hopping on Tobago Express at 17:00 that afternoon for Beautiful Tobago.
Leaving Tobago November 3rd for Trinidad and returning to N.Y. November 8th.
Please keep those storms at bay - I'm predicting beautiful weather for the entire trip
Keeping my spirits up
Roger

[Paul Tallet]

Roger and Wilma Update

Noted Roger ... I will be on the case next Wednesday.

Meanwhile, back on the farm ... so to speak ...

Wilma is now a Hurricane with a sharp decline in central pressure and consequently rapid intensification.

This is becoming yet another major Hurricane and a feature for the World's media for the rest of this week.

Regards