WEATHER UPDATE 13th JULY 2005. 2200 BST.
I STILL THINK THIS IS ABOUT TO BE A HURRICANE
I have been unhappy for the last couple of hours as the Official Forecasters have downgraded their warning and so I choose my words carefully …
I would like them to be right but I believe they are wrong. In fact I think they have been downright irresponsible and I hope no one in Tobago jeopardises their safety in response to the downgrade.
I have just seen their latest reports, they are still slightly north of the track and have stuck to the Tropical Storm Forecast.
See the following Sat Loop which is currently the best visual I can find on the Hurricane’s development.
At the top right of the map, check the box titled ‘Trop Fcst Pts’ and this gives an indication of the track and the points at which Emily is expected to become a Hurricane, it’s category and so on.
In the last few hours, the southern half of Emily has produced some substantial convective bursts and rolled itself up into a tight circulating ball … the Satellite Loop shows this quite dramatically.
The northern area of Emily seems to be detaching itself and forming an outer rain band ahead of the Storm.
The area directly to the East of Tobago is now an area of extremely intense rainfall and high winds … still a few hours away from passing over Tobago … and still developing.
Make your own minds up as you watch the Loop … the threat is there in black and white !!
As far as I am concerned, this is very close to Hurricane status and that Emily has regenerated herself in the last couple of hours.
I have been receiving some reports from Tobago, for instance, Sue and Steve of Castara Retreats have confirmed that conditions are deteriorating and the winds picking up … this is a few hours before this violent Storm Centre is due to arrive.
So there will be flooding, mudslides and damaging winds … whether it becomes a Hurricane or stays as a Storm … but I think it will develop to Hurricane status overnight if it has not already done so.
If you are in Tobago, please take care and please do not let your guard down … the real business is arriving in the next 2 hours.