2006 Hurricane Season

[David Watkins]

You are so right Paul,so I shall be getting a Chrissy prez!

[Paul Tallet]

Copy of notice posted in Liquid Sunshine ...


WARNING OF STORMY CONDITIONS

24TH AUGUST 0900 BST

There has been plenty of rain over the last few days as I forecast, however, quite suddenly a Tropical Depression is forming just a few miles to the east of Tobago.

This looks to be developing quite rapidly and is associated with another Tropical Wave.

Tropical Storm conditions are likely in the next few hours and very heavy rain and strong winds are likely to affect Tobago throughout today.
I will monitor this and post updates.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATED WARNING ... 24TH AUGUST 2006 ... 1100 BST

A very intense Storm Cell is now affecting Tobago.

The cell is circulating and seems to be developing and intensifying. Conditions around Tobago are very good for Tropical Storm development.

Tobago is currently under the northern half of the cloud swathe, just north of the centre of the Storm that seems set to affect central and northern Trinidad later today ... but this can change direction very quickly as very young storm developments are very unpredictable.

Take precautions ... there will be very intense rainfall today and likely very strong winds.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE 24TH AUGUST 2006 ... 1430 BST


The main Storm cell has crossed most of Tobago and is now moving into northern Trinidad so the rain over Tobago should start to reduce in intensity over the next few hours although it will still be very heavy at times.

Another less intense cell is moving over Barbados.

There is now some banding developing to the south of these 2 main cells where other Thunderstorms are forming to the south and being sucked up towards the 2 main cells and there is some evidence of circulation.

This looks like shaping up into a Tropical Storm but it is difficult to see where the centre of the storm will form.

There is a high risk of further very intense rainfall as a procession of Thunderstorms from the south move up and merge with the main 2 cells.

Will post updates if anything changes.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

STORM UPDATE 25th AUGUST 2006 ... 0145 BST

The centre of this Storm seems to be well to the north but it has been dragging plenty of rain from the south.

So it has been quite a wet day in Tobago ... I would be interested to hear about any wind ... can't see the wind on the Sat Loops !!

The situation is improving now as the Storm moves on towards Jamaica.

Still a little rain around but it should soon subside.

I hope it has been a good day despite the weather.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE ON STORM ... 25TH AUGUST 2006 ... 0930 BST


Tropical Depression 5 is now moving away and circulating just to the north west of Grenada ... large volumes of rain have fallen over all the Windward Islands.

The circulation is now much more defined in the sat loops.

The prediction is for Tropical Storm Ernesto to form and a possibility that Ernesto will become a Hurricane by the time he reaches Jamaica.

Tobago is not out of the woods yet ... the bandings to the south of the Storm centre are bringing more pulses of heavy rain and there is still the risk of heavy rain and squally conditions for several more hours.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

ERNESTO UPDATE ... 26TH AUGUST ... 1045 BST


Ernesto has now moved on and is threatening the southern coasts of Haiti.

Jamaica seems to be most at threat, followed by the Cayman Islands and the forecasting models are starting to agree that there is a prospect of a major hurricane with the next 2 or 3 days.

This is the 3rd year in a row that Storms have taken this track, starting with Hurricane Ivan in 2004 … it brings back memories.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE ERNESTO UPDATE ... 27TH AUGUST ... 1830 BST

Ernesto has confounded the forecasters and switched to a more northerly direction and could reach category 3 Hurricane status before landfall.

Jamaica and the Caymans can relax a little but this is to the cost (sadly of life) of Haiti and Cuba that Ernesto has chosen.

Ernesto is likely to weaken some over Cuba but will still bring much rain before moving into the Gulf and there is the question mark of whether Ernesto will re-strengthen (and by how much) before he acquaints himself with the eastern Mississippi and Florida areas.

Haiti is currently being affected by this Hurricane ... not good for a country that has already been badly affected by heavy rains in recent seasons.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Tropical Storm Florence has formed to the east of the northern Windward Islands.

There does not yet seem to be too much of a threat to anywhere other than the east coast of the US from Florence.

Another vigorous Tropical Wave is forming a depression just off Africa and this will be one to watch although it is early days.

Overall, the season has been very quiet so far (one of the quietest ever) but the conditions are now becoming more suitable for Tropical Storm development.

There is the rest of September, October and November to go and these are the normally the most active months.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Extract from this weeks Liquid Sunshine Post


For the record ...



Hurricane Florence is moving north off the eastern coast of the US.

Hurricane Gordon is expected to follow a similar track.

A Tropical Wave that has already spawned Hurricane Gordon is, with the added influence of the ITCZ, generating widespread thundery activity across the whole of the Windward Islands from as far south as the South American coast and as far north as the Bahamas.

Conditions are particularly bad around the south east Caribbean including Tobago.

2 more Tropical Waves are following up this activity and this looks set to be the most active week of the 2006 Wet season so far.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Hurricanes Gordon and Helene

Interesting one this.

I am inhaling luxurious Caribbean air in Yorkshire today as the remnant of Hurricane Gordon moves north from the Bay of Biscay and up the Irish Channel.

Stormy conditions are expected to the west of the British Isles and then Gordon will be absorbed into a large depression sitting west of the UK.

This will continue to feed warm air across the UK but today has been exceptional ... the winds strong and yet so warm ... it really felt like the Caribbean but with a tad less of the humidity factor.

Next we have Helene ... she is expected to move towards the UK next week but the predictions favour a slow down in her track until she becames almost stationary and eventually replaces the current system to the west of the UK.

All this does not top the tornado that swept through north Leeds last week ... the low cloud base moved over my house last Thursday and the Storm took out the electrics in the whole of Wetherby ... quite exciting stuff I thought, as I prepared my Camcorder for the visual feast ... I was soon diving for cover when a huge bolt of lightening struck about 30 feet away !!

Bring on Global Warming I say ... it makes the weather so much more exciting

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

bttt

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

bttt

[Paul Tallet]

bttt