2009 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

TS HENRI ... 7th OCTOBER 2009

Well what a surprise.

There is alot of moisture around the Tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean right now but I was surprised to see Henri suddenly develop yesterday just to the east of the Northern Windwards.

Henri's life as a Tropical Storm will be short lived but he does carry the threat of very heavy rain for the Northern Caribbean.

Most areas of the Caribbean should expect plenty of rain over the next couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, I became a little excited yesterday as (another short-lived) Tropical Storm Grace formed just north of Madeira and moved quickly towards the south coast of Ireland ... this brought some very warm and moist air over the UK yesterday ... hence the heavy rain ... all good fun and I bet nobody noticed.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TS HENRI AND DISTURBANCE ... 7th OCTOBER 2009 ... 1815 BST


Henri is doing remarkably well despite the adverse conditions but he being sheared away and will probably fall apart before before he drops a fair amount of rain over the Northern Caribbean.

But there is another rather sinister looking disturbance that should raise interest in Tobago. This is about 900 miles to the south east of Tobago. I cannot see much development due to it's very close proximity to the Equator but it does present a risk of very heavy rain by the weekend ... I will be keeping an eye on this one ... it needs to move a little further north to be a real threat.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

THE RAIN OVER TRINIDAD & TOBAGO ... 9TH OCTOBER 2009 ... 1245 BST

As predicted in Liquid Sunshine and the Feedback Posts it has been raining very heavily over Trinidad and Tobago for the last 12 hours.

This reminds me of the November 2004 event that caused widespread flooding and sediment ruined the Coral Reefs just off Charlottesville's beach ... landslides also caused a number of deaths around Speyside and nearby villages.

Luckily, on this occasion it seems that Tobago has not had the worst of this rain but I am sure there has been enough to cause some problems.

The worst of the rain has been over Trinidad where it has been belting down with some significant intensity for hours ... I would be surprised if less than 10 inches has fallen in the last 12 hours.

The system causing this is a Tropical Wave ... there is some sign of a circulation in the 'blob' causing this rain although the cloud tops are now warming and hopefully the intensity of the rain will decrease ... but don't be suprised of there is a new burst ... hopefully this system will move on by the end of today but it seems to be just sitting over Trinidad at the moment.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE IDA ... 6TH NOVEMBER 2009 ... 1745 GMT


Starting out as a Tropical Depression, Ida seemed to be too close to Nicaragua to have the chance of developing into a Hurricane especially as the sea water here was quite cool ... so I didn't bother reporting on it thinking that it would be a short term affair.

Accordingly, Ida rapidly developed into a Category 1 Hurricane !!

She has weakened over Nicaragua and dropped a fair amount of rain and survived.

Ida is now back to Tropical Depression status and about to move off the north coast of Honduras ... the sea is very warm there.

Difficult to say what will happen but there could be restrengthening and it could be explosive.

Interests in Belize, Mexico and Cuba and the Caymans should watch this.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE IDA UPDATE ... 7TH NOVEMBER 2009 ... 1100 GMT


Ida moved over the sea north of Honduras as a Tropical Depression and has re-intensified to a Tropical Storm.

The sea is very warm here and this can give Ida some energy to regain hurricane status but, on the other hand, the wind shear is increasing and this could keep Ida in check.

Looks like she is moving north and could affect Mexico or Cuba ... Caymans look at most risk.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

IDA GETTING STRONGER ... 7TH NOVEMBER 2009 ... 1900 GMT

Ida has been strengthening over warm seas but there seems to be a short period of opportunity for this Storm to reach Hurricane strength before she brings heavy rains and strong winds to the far eastern coast of Mexico and the west of Cuba, with the Caymans inbetween.

North of these regions it will be hostile territory with cooler seas and strong upper level winds that should tear her apart.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE (AGAIN) IDA ... 8th NOVEMBER 2009 ... 1730 GMT


Ida has, indeed, reached hurricane strength and much stronger than forecast by the NHC that predicted only tropical storm strength.

The good news is that the hurricane force windfield extends out only 15 - 20 miles from the centre which is well out to sea although rain is affecting Mexico, the Caymans and the western fringes of Cuba.

Next stop ... Alabama or Mississippi? ... not as a hurricane but as a potent extra tropical storm ... the sea is too cold to sustain a hurricane here ... or is Ida going to bring more surprises?

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

IDA GETTING STRONGER ... 9TH NOVEMBER 2009 ... 0130 GMT

Ida is now a category 2 hurricane ... another learning experience!

Not looking good for Ida after 24 hours and hopefully looking better for the landfall areas as mentioned in my earlier post ... the seas are cooler ahead and there is heavy wind shear ... should weaken (dare I say).

Nonetheless ... expect heavy rains and strong winds in the Alabama/Mississippi areas soon.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

bttt

[Paul Tallet]

bttt