2010 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

IGOR, JULIA (?) & KARL (?)


Igor is now nudging hurricane strength and moving west ... he is unlikely to affect any land areas although the US east coast and Bermuda will be watching this.

The system that has been affecting Tobago and the south east Caribbean is pretty close to becoming a Tropical Storm (Julia?) and I expect Jamaica is at most risk from the rains and winds although the northern half of the system is bringing heavy rain to Puerto Rico right now. This one wants watching as it moves westwards through the very warm Caribbean Sea.

Another development has moved off the African Coast (Karl?).

An active week ahead.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

IGOR, JULIA & KARL UPDATE


Hurricane Igor continues to move west and strengthen ... Bermuda needs to watch this as Igor looks primed to develop into a big Cat 4 Hurricane in the next few days.

The new development off the African coast is organising itself very quickly and is likely to be named Julia in the next 24 hours ... too early to assess the risks of this system yet so anything goes ... the sooner it develops the better.

The system that affected Tobago last week has changed little as it moves west ... it's rains are brushing the south coasts of the Dominican and Haiti ... this could be named Karl in the next 48 hours but it does seem to be struggling to get it's act together ... Jamaica and the Caymans need to watch this unpredictable system.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

IGOR AND JULIA

Hurricane Igor has strengthened into a very impressive Cat 4 Hurricane with a very large eye. Although he appears to be getting uncomfortably close to the northern Windwards he is starting to turn to the north west ... Bermuda seems most at risk.

Hurricane Julia has quickly formed and is moving north west across the mid-Atlantic ... I can't see any threat from Julia.

The other disturbance that affected Tobago last week is now meandering past Jamaica towards the Yucatan Pensinsula ... it has never managed to get it's act together but still represents a rain risk.

Another vigorous Tropical Wave is due off the African coast in a few days.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

IGOR, JULIA & KARL

Hurricane Igor continues his curve towards the north west and now Bermuda is under threat. Igor is a very large Hurricane so even if Bermuda avoids a direct hit it is very likely that Hurricane conditions could affect this Island in the next 72 - 96 hours. Heavy sea swells are also likely to affect most of the Windward Islands and the eastern US Coast.

Hurricane Julia is a big surprise as she has strengthened extremely quickly into a Cat 4 Hurricane ... she shouldn't last long though as there are cooler waters ahead and Igor's outflow which is likely to shear Julia apart.

Finally, Tobago's irritation from last week has developed into a named Storm (Karl) and he is very close to Hurricane strength as he makes landfall near the border between Mexico and Belize. Karl will dump alot of rain over this region before emerging over the warm Gulf waters where I expect he could get going again and cause more trouble for Mexico/Texas.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

IGOR, JULIA & KARL

It is not often that you see 3 Hurricanes at the same time ... it is even rarer to have 2 Hurricanes in the Atlantic and for a time, yesterday, both Igor and Julia were Cat 4 strength and I am not sure if that has ever happened before.

Igor is the main feature, he is huge and very powerful and is going to bring very heavy seas to a wide area from the Windwards and right up the east coast of the US ... Bermuda needs on be on alert for a minimum of Tropical Storm conditions for 2 to 3 days due to Igor's speed and size ... the various forecasting models are not unanimous in predicting a direct hit on the Island but the risk of Hurricane conditions are looking ominously high.

Julia is now weakening after her surprising and explosive development into a major Hurricane as Igor's impressive outflow is starting to shear her and she moves over cooler waters.

Karl, surprisingly again, has done well to keep himself together over the Yucatan Pensinsula and he could become a fairly strong hurricane by the time he makes his 2nd landfall in Mexico.

I have noted one of the forecasting models is predicting another disturbance to develop in the Eastern Caribbean within the next week ... I have to be honest and say I am clueless as to how this prediction is being made ... so we need to watch out for that one.

Otherwise ... there are more Waves over Africa that are expected to develop ... 2010 is proving to be an active season.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

IGOR, JULIA, KARL UPDATES

There is little change to Igor today apart from the fact he is just getting bigger and bigger. Just a slight weakening. Igor is so large that one of his outer rainbands brought some heavy showers to Tobago in the early hours of today and most of the Windwards are getting some rain from the oputer bands of Igor, not to mention heavy seas for the next few days.

Bermuda will start experiencing Tropical Storm conditions from tomorrow and if we bear in mind that the eye of Igor (and the hurricane force winds) is not expected to reach or pass Bermuda before Monday this gives us some idea of the incredible size of this Hurricane. Bermuda will be bracing itself for 4 or 5 days of continuous heavy rain, extremely high winds and heavy seas.


Julia is fading away as the shear from Igor starts opening up her circulation, she is just holding on to Hurricane status right now but she could be gone by tomorrow or Sunday.


Our surprise package is Karl again ... this is the irritant that brought bad weather conditions to Tobago over a week ago ... Karl has now reached Cat 3 status which means he is a major Hurricane as he begins his landfall in Mexico.

Meanwhile, another disturbance is moving off the African coast and now there are 2 forecasting models predicting a development in the eastern Caribbean next week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE IGOR

Although Igor has slightly weakened he is huge and is affecting many areas.

Heavy seas are affecting the Atlantic facing coasts of the Caribbean and Florida and these swells will spread up the US Coast over the next week.

Considerable amounts of moisture are also being sucked up by Igor from the south and this is bring heavy thunderstorms to the Eastern Caribbean.

But Bermuda is going to get the brunt of Igor ... the most northern outer rainbands are starting to move over the Island and conditions are going to deteriorate from now until the centre of Igor passes over or near Bermuda tomorrow night ... it will probably be Tuesday before things return to normal so Bermuda has up to 4 days of this to endure.

Elsewhere ... the disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic is slowly getting it's act together. Julia is now a Tropical Storm and dissipating quickly. Karl's remnants have moved out into the Pacific having been destroyed by the high mountains of Mexico.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

NEW DISTURBANCE

I believe I mentioned last week that a few forecasting models were predicting a disturbance in the eastern Caribbean this week.

Well here it is ... heavy rain and thunderstorms and a risk of development. Looks very similar to what eventually became Karl 2 weeks ago.

Tobago and the rest of the Islands as far north as Puerto Rico should be prepared for flash flooding and localised Tropical Storm conditions (heavy squalls).

Lisa has also formed in the Atlantic but no threat to anywhere.

Regards

[Lisa Keith]

I have not! That's just a scandalous rumour!!!

[Paul Tallet]

Playing away from home?

Regards

[Lisa Keith]

LOL! Enough with the rumours!!! Home is now Baldock in Herts (near Gill, I think!). Tobago is a distant memory!

[Paul Tallet]

MATTHEW AND LISA

Oh well, Lisa has proved to be a big disappointment as she flounders in the eastern Atlantic

Matthew, on the other hand, is a very dangerous prospect for northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and Mexico over the next 5 or 6 days. This is the disturbance that dumped plenty of rain over Tobago and much of the eastern Caribbean earlier this week.

Matthew has every chance of developing into a strong Hurricane depending on how much time he spends over the very warm Caribbean Sea.

Even if Hurricane status is not achieved, Matthew will bring alot of rain to these areas.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16

Tropical Storm Matthew left a very moist trail in his wake and this has unfortunately developed into a very large disturbance across the western Caribbean.

A disaster seems to be unfolding in Mexico with reports of many fatalities from a massive hillslide.

The fact that this large area of bad weather has spawned a circulation west of Jamaica is of little significance because the worst of the rain and winds are at a great distance from the centre of the Tropical Depression.

This is more like a monsoon and many areas across the whole of the Caribbean will have plenty of rain over the next 2 days.

This is good evidence that the NHC should be classifying Tropical Disturbances rather than just waiting for a circulation to form ... disturbances like this have the potential to cause more damage and loss of life over a wide area than an average Hurricane.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 UPDATE

The more I look at this the less I am convinced this is a Tropical Depression ... this is a large Depression that could potentially spawn many serious weather events across a wide area. Some weather commentators are describing it as a Monsoon.

The only areas unaffected are the Gulf and the extreme eastern Caribbean.

The amount of rain falling over Jamaica is phenomenal and this swathe of moisture is going to move north east across Cuba and towards Florida. This is potentially a more serious weather proposition than any of the Hurricanes so far this season.

Countries that I expect will get the worst include Haiti, Cuba, Caymans, Bahamas and the US East Coast.

At the time of writing, the reports about the large landslip in Mexico have almost disappeared and media reports seem only to be focusing on the arrival of this weather event in the US ... it's a bit sad.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

DEADLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16


I still don't agree this is a Tropical Depression and I also do not agree that this will become a Tropical Storm (Nicole).

The NHC don't seem to be able to make their mind up where the centre is and the possibility is that, if they looked around this massive disturbance, they may find several circulations trying to develop. Why do they think there has to be just one centre?

All the action (i.e.; winds and rain) are so far removed from where the alleged centre is ... in my opinion this is basically a very disturbed trough of moisture that probably does not happen more than once every 10 years and is more common in other Tropical locations where Monsoons are common ... it is so large that it could spawn more than one Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm ... the system itself is simply too big and disorganised to tighten itself into an organised Cyclone.

Anyway ... if I come out of the forecasting Noddyland and address the facts ... there are about 5 distinct super cells of thunderstorm activity ... the worst of these are crossing the Caymans, Jamaica and central Cuba and brushing Haiti. Low pressure is also developing on the eastern coast of the US and this area of intense moisture looks likely to be sucked up over Florida and upwards along the eastern US Coast.

We may as well call this 'Damnation Alley' ... I am estimating rainfall accumulations of 25 - 30 inches in localised areas and probably 10 - 15 inches generally along this swathe ... I expect strong winds and random waterspouts and tornadoes anywhere along the path ... the biggest problem will be the incredibly intense rainfall and people in these areas should do whatever they can to avoid flooding and mudslides ... this is a major weather event unfolding over a vast area.

Of additional concern is a small disturbance about 400 miles off the eastern Caribbean that could also benefit from the very moist conditions of the Caribbean Sea in the next 2 days ... Tobago should keep an eye on this one.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

DAMNATION ALLEY

I must credit this post to an old space rock group from the 70's called Hawkwind who composed and performed a crazy song called 'Damnation Alley'.

This is it ... the unfolding events in the mid Northern Caribbean, through Florida and northwards in a swathe between 400 and 600 miles across ... this is Damnation Alley for the next 3 days.

There is already heavy rain over the eastern US ahead of the system that the NHC have laughingly named as Tropical Storm Nicole. She only lasted a few hours before they lost the location of the centre ... what did I say in my last post ???

Anyway ... I reiterate, although the intensity is only marginally lower, there remain a number of large thunder cells tracking north east over Jamaica and Cuba and this moisture is likely to boost an already significant rainfall event over most of the east coast of the US ... this is turning into a plume of bad weather from south to north.

I am very concerned about Jamaica ... it has been a deluge over this island for at least 12 hours and looks set to continue for 4 hours or more. Central Cuba also looks bad.

Meanwhile ... Tobago needs to look to the east ... it may not be a hurricane or a tropical storm, but it is a tropical disturbance and it needs watching ... expect rain and squalls within 48 hours.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

DAMNATION ALLEY UPDATE

Jamaica is STILL under the deluge ... and it looks like this stubborn cell is going to keep dumping heavy rains over Jamaica for several more hours ... the stats are not out yet but I estimate that this deluge has been constant for over 30 hours at the rate of at least 1 inch per hour ... this is very serious stuff ... bringing me recollection of the November 2004 Storm that caused large landslides and deaths in Tobago and wrecked the reef in Charlottesville ... 'only' 16 inches of rain fell over 18 hours in that event.

This plume of extreme moisture is now making progress over Florida and up the eastern coast of the US which has already had significant rainfall over the last week.

The Mexican Landslide reports appear to have been exaggerated which possibly explains why it has quickly disappeared from the news.

Meanwhile, I am still watching a disturbance approaching Tobago and the eastern Caribbean ... conditions are starting to deteriorate and localised Storms are likely for the next 48 hours.

Regards

[Andy K]

Paul,

do you always have to make such shitty weather just before the weekend ?
I wanted to go fishing on Sunday but it looks more like staying inside and watching TV

Well, the Trinidad met office already issued a bulletin about the approaching system and i bet tomorrow
morning, for the latest, it will rain plenty in Trinidad.
That of course will cause more damage, landslides and floods as the already heavily saturated soil will be unable
to deal with any significant amount of rainfall.

[Paul Tallet]

Ha Ha ... I only tell it how it is ... so deal with it ... I would much rather be there than here in the UK.

Anyway, you could take a risk ... there is rain moving in on Tobago now but the rain is scattered and missing some places ... problem is, these disturbances can suddenly get better organised and, in this case, the disturbed weather covers a big area ... so it would be fair to assume this problem will last a few days through to Monday or Tuesday.

Jamaica is reporting relatively low rainfall amounts of up to 8 inches so far in low lying areas ... I sense that the rainfall was much higher on higher ground and, although there is currently a respite, more rain is expected to fall here. There have been reports of serious flooding and fatalities.

Cuba is reporting up to 10 inches but some parts of the eastern US have already had +21 inches this week with more to come.

2010 is probably going to be one of the wettest wet seasons.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Reports are now coming out as Jamaica assesses it's situation.

So far there appear to have been 4 fatalities with 15 missing, hopefully these numbers will not rise. The infrastructure is in a mess with roads and bridges washed away and the water supply network severely damaged.

More rain will fall over Jamaica as the remnants of the system seem to be developing again to the west of Jamaica ... the NHC is reporting on this every 4 hours.

On the other hand, Cuba received as much rain as Jamaica and their statement reports no deaths or damage and indicates that the rains were welcome.

Anyway, to the east of Tobago, the heavy thunderstorms closest to Tobago have diminished somewhat and the disturbance seems to be concentrating a little to the north ... but this is a very large area of disturbed weather involving 2 Tropical Waves and I am expecting the risk of heavy rain and the possibility of Tropical Storm conditions to be widespread and cover all of the Windward Islands.

Regards