2011 Hurricane Season

[Andy K]

TS Maria
Tropical Storm Maria is presently passing just north of the northern Leeward Islands.
Even though Tobago did not get any impact of the storm itself, a "feeder band" passed over Tobago last night into
this morning with some strong breeze, but little rain. Today the weather is overcast and reasonably cool.
By tomorrow we should be out of the range of influence of "Maria".

[Paul Tallet]

Ha Ha ... I found some free Wi Fi.

The effects of Katia were felt even in the Algarve with very strong winds 2 days ago ... I have been watching it on the news for the UK.

Can't say much else ... very limited access

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

THE NEXT ONE

Early days, but a new depression is forming about 1,400 miles east of Tobago.

This is at a low latitude and until we see any further developments the scope of this system's course currently varies widely among the Computer Models.

The most southerly track takes the system between Tobago and Barbados and this track offers the system the best prospects of developing into a Hurricane.

The most northerly track takes it out into the northern Atlantic but the conditions north of Barbados do not appear to be good for developing this system to much more than a Tropical Depression at best.

So there is a small risk for south of Barbados and a medium risk for north of Barbados.

Hopefully the system's behaviour over the next 24 hours will give us some clearer indications ...

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

OPHELIA

The disturbance I mentioned yesterday has developed into a Tropical Storm.

Ophelia has started to move a little to the north and into hostile conditions for such a young Storm and it is possible, that unless the track stays further south, Ophelia could dissipate over the northern Lesser Antilles.

Dissipation would bring more widesread rains across the eastern Caribbean on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

If Ophelia tracks more to the south it could be bad news for Barbados but this is an unlikely prospect coupled with the fact that Ophelia does not show any signs of reaching Hurricane status.

Rain is the main threat for all the eastern Caribbean this weekend (including Tobago).

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

OPHELIA

I now wonder if Ophelia is now just a strong Tropical Wave.

She has opened up and her remnants are becoming more scattered and this bring the prospect of heavy rain and the risk of localised squalls across wider areas of the Caribbean.

Get set for a wet weekend.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

OPHELIA ... PROBLEMATIC

Ophelia dissipated as I expected but is on the verge of becoming a Tropical Storm again.

This Storm has also not quite reached the islands (I thought it would be a wet weekend!), it was expected to veer north but instead has almost come to a halt just east of the northern Leewards.

The problem is, Ophelia is expanding and slipping slightly to the south and the edge of her rain bands could now be visible from the northern coast of Barbados.

Ophelia is becoming a very unpredictable Storm and could affect a wide area with very heavy rain ... the more she sinks south, the more likely she will develop and a moderate Tropical Wave is catching up with her.

Tobago is on the fringe of risk ... so it would be sensible to take Ophelia seriously for the rest of this week.

Regards

[Brian Taylor]

wasnt she something?! phillippe is a very starnge moving fella, too. cant remember when we had such a strange hurricane season. good thing he is way out there and does not affect us at all...
so, paul, was that it now?

[Paul Tallet]

I think you mean't Ophelia didn't you Brian?

Phillippe is well away but Ophelia got quite close but as soon as she got organised, whooosh ... she shot off north.

There is more to come before December but most of the activity is in the Atlantic with the odd Storm forming in the west Caribbean ... there may be one big one but conditions make that look unlikely at the moment.

It has been a very inactive active season

Regards

[Brian Taylor]

was steph mailing and I found them both very weird in their moves. she hung around for ages before she took of with a speed and phillippe is all over the place, back and forth and up and down...always checking it on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml (since ivan one of our favourite sites!).
steph

[Paul Tallet]

RINA and TOBAGO DEPRESSION

Tropical Storm Rina has formed in the western Caribbean and looks likely to strengthen into a Hurricane bringing problems for northern Belize and Mexico for the rest of this week.

Rina is slow moving so wherever there is interaction with land there could be some significant flooding.

The Depression that I forecast would affect Tobago by Tuesday suddenly sped up and most of the heavy rain and thunderstorms have passed with the bulk of this disorganised system affecting Grenada. there is still a risk of heavy rain for Tobago for at least the next few hours as it passes to the north.

This Depression could develop into something bigger if it finds any moisture ahead in the southern Caribbean.

Regards