2005 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

Hurricane Dennis … 2005.07.06 …1930 BST

I remember him as a white puffy cloud off the west African coast about 9 days ago.

Dirty Den has developed into a major tropical storm and the prospects of hurricane development are now very high before he reaches Jamaica and Haiti.

I am concerned for Haiti which currently looks likely to get the brunt of the large volumes of rainfall that are expected from the stronger eastern convective side of Dennis. Haiti has had enough flooding trauma in recent years and the country has struggled to cope with recent disasters, let alone recover from last year’s flooding …

Jamaica looks set to bear the strongest winds in addition to heavy rain. Again, Jamaica is an area of concern having taken some punishment from Category 5 ‘Ivan’ last September.

The conditions are perfect for Dennis and he should be a Category 1 or 2 Hurricane by the time he reaches Jamaica and Haiti, maybe 3 by landfall over the west of Cuba.

The interaction with any substantial landmass could weaken Dennis before he moves into the Gulf and so I am a little uncertain of Dennis’ strength beyond Cuba … if landfall is generally avoided then Dennis could become the first major Hurricane this season.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Dirty Den Update 2005.07.07 ... 2145 BST

Why call him Dirty? ... This is one is Nasty but I cannot think of anything that rhymes appropriately with 'Dennis' ... Dastardly perhaps ... Menace?

Dennis has just kinked a little to the east by a a mere matter of 10 miles or so which is seriously good news for Jamaica ... so far.

This can make all the difference for Jamaica where a potentially devastating and developing hurricane is concerned ... ref Ivan v. Grenada 09.2004 ... just those few miles could take the most damaging winds away.

Dennis is just to the east of Jamaica and a kink back to the west would be disastrous ... no joke!

Dennis is a strong category 2 and likely to rise to 3 before likely landfall over the west of Cuba ... I am a little cautious about Dennis' presence in the Gulf because the key to further development will be how much time Dennis' eye spends over land.

If the eye stays over water ... and only if ... then I sense I would not be too forward in suggesting that the potential 'Godfather' of all storms could bring trauma of medievil proportions to the south coast of the US and likely Florida.

Dennis is a worry.

On the subject of Haiti ... our prayers have not been answered ... Haiti is currently the recipient of huge volumes of rainfall from the very convective eastern side of Dennis ... I sense that relief will be required in Haiti within 48 hours when the storm has passed and I hope that the media are swift to bring attention to their cause.

The eastern convective side of Dennis is likely to transfer to the west as the Hurricane goes about it's regenerative stages and circulates and then this brings the convection over the Cayman Islands ... not likely to bear the brunt of the winds ... but flooding is likely to ensue, no doubt this will be kept quiet in order that the offshore financial institutions can carry on their business ... the investors need not worry, but the domiciles will need help.

Back to Jamaica ... will get the worst but might just avoid the worst of Dennis. Unlike Ivan who took out the west side in 2004 and did not actually get that close, Dennis is closer and is working on the east side and then the west side will take some storm work as Dennis passes and moves north ...

... I am watching this and hoping Dennis stays to the east.

Then it is Cuba ... and then you think that Dennis could batter Jamaica and spare Cuba ... choose your poison ... direct hit likely on the south-western side of Cuba ... not as well populated as Jamaica and Haiti ... but big worry ... either way.

Nasty one this.

... update tomorrow morning.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Dirty Den Update ... 2005.07.08 ... 0900 BST

Dennis is now Category 4 and now a very powerful Hurricane.

Haiti still having heavy rain.

Jamaica has missed the worst as Dennis kept to the east as hoped but this has worrying implications for Cuba where this hurricane is going to make it's first landfall.

Dennis is already powerful ... further intensification continues but it is not certain how the land mass of Cuba could affect Dennis before he moves on into the Gulf.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Dirty Den Update ... 2005.07.08 ... 1830 BST

Dennis is just making landfall on Cuba's south west coast as a very strong category 4 hurricane (possible category 5) with sustained winds of 135 m.p.h. or higher.

The rain over Haiti is clearing and the Caymans seem to be in the clear as Dennis has tracked more north than west.

This raises the threat for Florida this weekend that the forecasters have been shamelessly focusing on, yet again, for the past 48 hours ... watch out for media reports of Dennis as he approaches Florida late Saturday.

In the first instance we should spare our thoughts for Cuba which is about to be subjected to approximately 15 to 18 hours of devastating hurricane violence and the consequent widespread flooding and destruction ... I have not seen any media reports of this yet.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Dirty Den Update 2005.07.09 ... 1800 BST

The Hurricane has weakened over Cuba but is now getting it's act back together and landfall, from west, over Mississippi, Alabama and the western areas of Florida is imminent as a category 2 and possibly 3 Hurricane.

Deaths have been reported in Haiti and Cuba and such reports have got the media press interested in the imminent landfall on the northern Gulf Coast.

They are over-egging it ... warning of a Category 5.

Heavy rainfall will be widespread over areas that are not even affected by the winds.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Dirty Den Update … 2005.07.10 … 1030 BST


It always happens to me … you just get yourself about 8 hours sleep and you miss one of the greatest and unexplained phenomena about Hurricanes.

When I last checked Dennis out, he had substantially weakened to Category 1 after Cuba and had gradually regained strength to Category 2 … that was just 8 hours ago.

In the subsequent short space of time Dennis has exploded into a violent Category 4 Hurricane.

This means that the fastest sustained wind speed has increased from about 95 mph to 145 mph.

Rapid development of this scale is almost unheard of and Dennis has been wobbling about violently like a spinning top as he has gone through rapid eyewall recycling.

A key aspect here is that the real violence of Dennis is around a small band to his centre and so damage and destruction from this area will not be as widespread as other hurricanes of this power that are normally much bigger.

Mississppi and Alabama … possibly the western fringes of Florida on the north Gulf coast should take care … and be ready to evacuate … Dennis is volatile and it is impossible to predict where this damaging centre will make landfall.

Regards

[Bob White]

Thanks for these updates Paul. Quite incredible to see how Dennis has altered into a real menace again so quickly.

Friends in Tobago said on the phone today that another potential hurricane is brewing out in the Atlantic...... about a week or so away. Is this true?

We are counting the days down to our arrival on the island next week. Looks like we might have a rapid flight inward bound!

Regards,

Bob.

[Paul Tallet]

Yes Bob, your friends could be right.

I have been watching a developing depression (not a Wave) since it was a tropical disturbance over Africa for the last 3 days ... I was not sure about it when I did my Weekly update and I was going to report on it on Monday ... see my weekly update on Liquid Sunshine.

It is now about mid-Atlantic and is showing signs of Tropical Storm formation which means that, if it is going to be a hurricane then it could be one before it reaches the Caribbean ... not in a week or so but ... as early as Wednesday (13th July) this week.

Please could you wait until I have had another look at this one tomorrow morning ... the chances are that this development could move north of Tobago if the high pressure to the north continues to recede and I want to suss this out properly before I start any alarm bells ...

Watch this space tomorrow morning ...

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Copy of post on Liquid Sunshine regarding the next possible development of this rather active season ...


WEATHER UPDATE 11th JULY 2005. 0030 BST.

WEATHER WATCH FOR TUES/WEDS, 13/14TH JULY 2005


No rest for me … just watched Dennis make landfall in the southern US … Dennis will now weaken but there will be plenty of rain in the Mississippi Basin for the next few days.

Tobago has just dispensed with another Tropical Wave that produced some heavy rain during yesterday … bit heavier and more prolonged than I expected, but that is now to the west and Tobago can enjoy a better day today.

Back to the east view … I have been watching a depression form off the west African coast for the last 4 days and, although this is showing signs of development, I am still not sure exactly what it will do.

The depression is in the mid-Atlantic and most of the official forecasts indicate nothing and some indicate a Tropical Depression that will arrive by Wednesday.

I think Tuesday … I also think it will be more than a Tropical Depression due to the fact that this is already a fairly potent cluster of thunderstorms that started to circulate earlier yesterday.

It is also positioned on a low latitude (between 8 and 18 degrees) and I have noted that the high pressure to the north is expanding south again and this indicates that the system will struggle to track on a more northerly direction.

So, of the following I am confident …


• Nice day Monday

• Good start Tuesday but deteriorating towards the end of the day.

• Wet day Wednesday


I feel confident that this system will develop to Tropical Storm status due to the warmth in the sea water and due to the slow speed of the upper airflows.

I am not yet sure if it will track directly over Tobago … but it will be close enough to provide the rain that I have predicted.

Another Wave follows behind this on a slightly higher latitude and less risk for Tobago … I am watching this too.

I will monitor and update late today.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Update posted on Liquid Sunshine.


WEATHER UPDATE 11th JULY 2005. 0900 BST.

WEATHER WATCH FOR TUES/WEDS, 13/14TH JULY 2005


We now have Emily, currently Tropical Depression 5 but expected to become a Tropical Storm later today.

This is going to approach from the east late Tuesday and Wednesday.

At this stage there is a small risk for Tobago but I sense that this Tropical Storm will track to the north of Barbados and this means there would be a negligible risk of wind but still the risk of heavy rain.

The next 24 hours will tell.

Further updates to be posted here.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Copy of update posted on Liquid Sunshine ...


WEATHER UPDATE 11th JULY 2005. 2230 BST.

WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDS/THURS, 14/15TH JULY 2005


Emily still has not got her act together, although she will become Emily and then quickly a Hurricane when she starts to feed greedily upon the heat of the exceptionally warm Caribbean Sea.

Emily is on a similar track to Hurricane Ivan in August/September 2004.

For starters, at the current position, Emily is very disorganised and Ivan had already reached Hurricane status … so not that bad, but just wait until she gets off the Atlantic.

On this basis, I sense that Emily will eventually (and suddenly) develop into a Tropical Storm at some point over the next 24 to 36 hours and track just south of Barbados.

Most official forecasters say north of Barbados but I agree with the UK Met … ‘south’ of Barbados.

Please note that the other forecasts are adjusting southwards every few hours or so and the strike chances for Tobago have increased from 5% to 13% in the last 6 hours … that is a big increase.

This means that, unless the high pressure recedes then Emily will keep west.

If my prediction is right then this means heavy rain and strong winds for Tobago … but not yet a full blown Storm … you will see I have adjusted my forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.

The Caribbean Sea is exceptionally warm and it will be like getting into a hot bath for Emily … she will be invigorated by this experience and I expect rapid development following contact with the Caribbean … consequently the forecast is dodgy … I just do not know how quickly Emily will react to the feast that awaits her.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER UPDATE 12th JULY 2005. 0830 BST.

WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDS/THURS, 14/15TH JULY 2005


At last Emily is born.

She is still moving west.

The tracking forecasts have moved slightly north above Barbados. This would be good news for Tobago and bad news for anywhere from Barbados northwards but I favour a more westerly track.

Barbados is at most risk from a direct hit.

I still expect Tobago to get some rain … this will be fairly close.


I am now more concerned about a very potent wave just behind Emily … this one is on a very low latitude and I am marking the diary for the weekend on this one.

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hi Paul;
The Government of Trindad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Tobago as of 11 AM AST.
http://www.stormtracker.noaa.gov/stormtracker-emily.htm

I'm heading there on Friday - Any advice from the mytobago weather guru?
Roger

[Paul Tallet]

Yes Roger

Just got back from work and Doing it.

I will post within an hour ... promise !

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Here is a copy of the latest update posted on Liquid Sunshine about Tropical Storm Emily who is forecast to develop into a Hurricane as she passes to the north of Tobago tomorrow (Wednesday).


WEATHER UPDATE 12th JULY 2005. 2100 BST.

TROPICAL STORM EMILY AND A (SMALL) RISK OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR WEDS/THURS, 14/15TH JULY 2005

I have mixed feelings about Emily.

I am pleased that my forecast track has proved to be right and in agreement with the UK Met (well done UK Met) … all the others got it wrong and have now adjusted their forecasts.

I am not pleased that this increases the threat to Tobago.

Emily still moves west … I am a little surprised that the Official Wether Forecasters have not learned their lesson from Ivan last year … when there is strong high pressure to the north, these storm systems can only go west … it is quite simple logic and does not require sophisticated weather models to work it out based on the Law of Averages !!

It just bugs me a bit when I have a day job to do and there are full time professional meteorologists analysing these things and they get it wrong time and time again !!

I have just come home from a day of work and I am multi-tasking between the emails I am receiving from concerned prospective holidaymakers and updating my assessment of the position … please forgive me if I have been slow to respond … I am doing my best.

Rant over … lets us look at the current position …

Emily is predicted to reach Hurricane status in the next 24 hours and by the time she tracks to the south of Barbados the central band of sustained winds will be 70 mph or higher … lower near Tobago.

Regardless of the wind speeds, there will be rain and it is likely to be heavy.

As a consequence of the revised track of Emily there have been Hurricane Watches issued in Grenada, The Grenadines, St Vincent, Barbados and St Lucia … Tropical Storm warning for Tobago … not to mention a few sleepless nights for me.

So what can Tobago expect …


Rest of Today

Fine


Wednesday

A deterioration from the morning (local time) onwards.

By Wednesday evening and then overnight and into Thursday a combination of high winds and heavy rain should be affecting Tobago.


Thursday

Depending on how close the Hurricane is to Tobago and how quickly it begins to veer north following it’s arrival in the Caribbean Sea it could be a rapid improvement … if the track stays south there could be more rain and strong winds, but an improvement nevertheless.


Friday

History


What Tobago Should Do

Don’t make any plans for after lunchtime on Wednesday … please do not arrange boat trips and any travel plans for Wednesday and Thursday … if you have then cancel these arrangements as soon as you can.

Fishermen get your boats in.

If you are visiting Tobago and flying in then travel may be disrupted on Wednesday but this becomes less likely on Thursday.

This is precautionary advice … things can change quickly for the better and for the worse … I will keep issuing updates and I will consider the Official Forecasts before my next update within 2 hours.



Regards

[Roger D.]

Thanks Paul - I hope everyone on Tobago stays safe and heeds the advice. I'm leaving NY tomorrow morning, flying into Piarco via Barbados - Scheduled to arrive at 13:45. My friend at BWIA tells me that they're probably going to bypass Barbados and operate non-stop to Trinidad - It all depends on what happens in the next 12 - 18 hours or so.
I'm anxious to see the developments behind Emilly
Rant noted - sorry
Keep up the good work.
If I get a chance while on Tobago, I'll post any noteworthy weather developments.
Roger

[Paul Tallet]

Roger

No worries about the rant ... I am angry with the forecasters ... looking at the storm now I sense that it is likely to pass well south of Barbados ... I just cannot quite see the eye yet ... when I see the eye I will know.

I agree that Barbados is not one of the best places to experience a touch down while this system moves in but you may just squeak it for 1345 Wednesday if that is local time.

Otherwise ... any feedback during situations like this are greatly appreciated.

It will pass by the end of the week so wishing you a lovely holiday.

Regards

[Roger D.]

Thanks Paul. I'm looking at the Western Atlantic Sat Loop and it looks like it's tracking to the south of Barbados:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Touch down in Barbados is scheduled for 12:25 local, departs 12:55 and arrives in Trinidad at 13:50. We may hit some bumps along the way, I expect.
Roger.

[Paul Tallet]

Roger

Check the IR (Infra-Red) Loop below.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

You were looking at the visible loop which is fine as long as it is daylight ... use the IR Loop for 24/7 monitoring ... not always as good but as I said you can keep monitoring all the time.

Erm ... enjoy your ride ... sure it will be thrilling

Regards

[Roger D.]

I can see the circulation coming off the south eastern coast of the United States, I guess this must be the effect of the high that's responsible for keeping the storms at such low lattitudes?
I'll enjoy the ride, my stomach included
Roger.