Copy of update posted on Liquid Sunshine ...
WEATHER UPDATE 11th JULY 2005. 2230 BST.
WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDS/THURS, 14/15TH JULY 2005
Emily still has not got her act together, although she will become Emily and then quickly a Hurricane when she starts to feed greedily upon the heat of the exceptionally warm Caribbean Sea.
Emily is on a similar track to Hurricane Ivan in August/September 2004.
For starters, at the current position, Emily is very disorganised and Ivan had already reached Hurricane status … so not that bad, but just wait until she gets off the Atlantic.
On this basis, I sense that Emily will eventually (and suddenly) develop into a Tropical Storm at some point over the next 24 to 36 hours and track just south of Barbados.
Most official forecasters say north of Barbados but I agree with the UK Met … ‘south’ of Barbados.
Please note that the other forecasts are adjusting southwards every few hours or so and the strike chances for Tobago have increased from 5% to 13% in the last 6 hours … that is a big increase.
This means that, unless the high pressure recedes then Emily will keep west.
If my prediction is right then this means heavy rain and strong winds for Tobago … but not yet a full blown Storm … you will see I have adjusted my forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.
The Caribbean Sea is exceptionally warm and it will be like getting into a hot bath for Emily … she will be invigorated by this experience and I expect rapid development following contact with the Caribbean … consequently the forecast is dodgy … I just do not know how quickly Emily will react to the feast that awaits her.
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature