2005 Hurricane Season

[Bob White]

Mobile calls to the island appear to be o.k. Just spoke to Louis of Ru-b-Lou's restaurant and Mason Hall area is fine. Louis in his usual laid back style said "Some rain and some wind passed through but no problems." Confirmed that some parts of the island without power.

[Paul Tallet]

EMILY UPDATE

Emily is now into open sea and she has a whole lot of development to do as she feeds off the warm Caribbean Sea ... she is now reported to be Category 2.

There is little doubt that Emily will become a major Hurricane event as is continually reported but unfortunately the weather models are giving the experts some interesting mathematical indications (based on Emily's activities so far) that she will track to the south of Jamaica and move towards Mexico ...

... I think not ... Emily is likely to track further north as she is already doing so ... in case they have not noticed.

The next ports of call are likely Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti ... in any case ... I expect that Emily will be a very large Cat 5 by then and she will leave a very wide trail of destruction and many Countries will be affected by her unavoidable presence.

Just waiting for the Florida Media Club to wake up and make their travel arrangements.

Regards[/b]

[Tony J]

Hi everyone

Have just found this update on the Caribbean Disasters web site which covers both Tobago and Grenada


Tobago
About 40 per cent of population lost electricity;
One northern town is without communication and cut off;
Two homes reported damaged or destroyed;
Another 16 homes sustained roof damage;
Seven roads reported blocked by fallen trees or debris;
Landslides reported in Lanse Fourmi. There is still heavy wind and rain in the area. 9:00 am;
One family was evacuated;
The hotels are all in good shape and open for business;
Martinair, Excel, and British Airways flights are operating according to schedule today.
St Vincent and the Grenadines

Small number of homes sustained roof damage;
Shelters were opened and being utilized.

Grenada

State of emergency remains in effect with a curfew from 7 pm to 6 am. Police are on patrol;
Eighty buildings were identified as emergency shelters of which 45 were used to house 1,650 persons;
Communication remained intact with the Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) and all of its District Coordinators;
Communication was also maintained and flowed well between the EOC and the media and then to the public;
Hardest hit areas were in the parish of St Andrew’s where houses in the villages of Seamoon, Pearls, Paradise, Marqui and Telescope were among those losing roofs;
A large number of houses in the northern parish of St. Patrick’s were also damaged;
Many homes were destroyed in Petit Martinique and Carriacou;
The hospital in Carriacou lost part of its roof and patients were taken into another section of the building;
The roof of the operating theatre of the main hospital in Grenada suffered water damage but was remained intact;
Part of the roof of the Police station in Petit Martinique was blown off;
Two Homes for the elderly, the Caudrona and the Hillarion lost their roofs;
The roof of the Sauteurs police station was blown away;
The eastern town of Grenville and parts of the outskirts of St.George are flooded;
Teams from the districts are being dispatched into the communities to carry out rapid assessment of the damage;
The Grenada Coast Guard has been put on standby to take damage assessment teams to Carriacou and Petit Martinique;
The works ministry has quickly mobilized crews to be dispatched to affected areas to commence recovery efforts;
Relief distribution has started to key areas;
The Prime Minister is expected to address the nation later today.

THE RESPONSE (LOCAL, REGIONAL, INTERNATIONAL):
Based on the information in Grenada and discussions with the National Disaster Coordinator the Regional Response Mechanism is at a Level Two Response.


Information is also available at the Agency’s Website- http://www.cdera.org

[Wendy Taylor]

Tobago
Martinair, Excel, and British Airways flights are operating according to schedule today.

That's good to know. I've check the Gatwick web site, but my daughter's flight arrival still isn't listed. Hopefully it will be soon as it is due in a 7.55 am and the latest listing only goes up to 7.20

I'm looking forward to hearing all about her journey and about Tobago, which I've never been to, though would love to.

May I take the opportunity now to say thank you to you all for your advice and helpful information. You kept this mother sane by focussing on practicalities, instead of worrying.

Best wishes
Wendy

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER UPDATE 15th JULY 2005. 1030 BST.

Since my last update, Emily has moved off into the southern Caribbean Sea and her strength has increased dramatically.

Since Tropical Storm status just before Tobago 36 hours ago, Emily has developed into a Category 4 Hurricane.

I have grown weary of disputing the Official forecasts so I will just say that Jamaica seems mostly at risk followed by the Caymans with rain over a wider area including Haiti, Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

Looking ahead, there are a few more Tropical Waves in the Atlantic … 2 could develop but the risk looks very low at this time coupled with the fact that these are moving west on a slightly high latitude.

A full update on Saturday.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Hi everyone

Please refer to my comments on Liquid Sunshine about the recent and remarkable trends in the current season's activity plus some indications of Tropical Wave activity for the forthcoming week.

I just feel compelled at this stage to comment on the perfect symetrical appearance of Emily as she moves to the south west of Jamaica.

And what a big, dark, cold and evil eye she has ... a real beauty.

The last Hurricane that looked so perfect was Isabelle in 2003 ... she shows up best on the visible Sat Loops.

On a more serious note ... this beauty is a very strong Cat 4 ... I sense the worst of the winds will miss Jamaica but there is some very heavy rain and unfortunately the best banding is in the north east quadrant of Emily ... so not good for Jamaica and the Caymans.

The Official Forecasters also seem to be getting their predictions together ... they always do when these Storms get close to home !!

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Emily just reached Cat 5.

She will weaken if she goes over the Yucatan Peninsula and likely re-strengthen in the Gulf ... if she tracks a little further north then this landfall will be brief and she should maintain strength a little better and stay Cat 5.

Emily is now a major headache for Texas and northern areas of Mexico.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Emily dropped to Cat 4 before landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

The track over the mainland reduced her power to Cat 2 but now she is in the Gulf and strengthening again.

Likely reach Cat 3 or 4 status before reaching northern Mexico or Texas soon.

The Weather Officials are getting everything right ...

General risks of Tropical Storm formation are reducing for the rest of this week ... there seems to be little in the Atlantic as I write ... Tobago getting some thundery weather as another Tropical Wave passes but it should settle for the rest of the week.

So looking for a few days off ... hopefully you won't hear from me for a few days ... will keep my beady eye on things though.

Enjoy the rest of the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Emily is now history.

Here is an update posted on Liquid Sunshine that I thought should be here for the record for this very active season ...



WEATHER UPDATE 22ND JULY 2005. 1730 BST.


Been watching a few developments in the Caribbean and Atlantic, one of which could affect Tobago within 18 hours.


Development 1

Tropical Storm Franklin has manifested himself off the Bahamas. Not nice for the Bahamas but Franklin is expected to move off to the North and back out into the Altantic … so no problems there.


Development 2

Just off the eastern side of the Mexican Yucatan Peninsula, in the wake of Hurricane Emily, there are signs of sinister development but this really depends how much of this strong Tropical Wave is going to be over land.

Heavy Rain here … if it gets into the Gulf then maybe some development there … again no problem for Tobago.


Development 3

Tobago basks in sunshine today … lovely.

But a Tropical Wave is passing shortly and this will not give any significant rain itself, however it seems to be associated with a compact cluster of thunderstorms just behind it that the Official Forecasters seem to have completely overlooked.

Possibly this is more associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) because this cluster of weather is on a very low latitude … I am not sure, but it is not mentioned as part of this either.

Nevertheless … it is there and I am watching it and I sense that this will give some heavy rain over Tobago in the next 18 to 24 hours (Saturday afternoon) unless it dissipates (i.e.; there do not yet seem to be any signs of development … it looks nice and compact but there are no signs of really sharp bursts of convection).


Further Developments?

Yes, there are a possible few that I am watching but these are a little way off and there is a lot of Saharan Dust in the air over the Atlantic which tends to stifle moisture and consequently reduces the risk of development.

More in tomorrow’s weekly update … but recommend caution for any outdoor arrangements on Saturday afternoon … 50/50.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Copy of a Warning posted on Liquid Sunshine ... for the record.


WEATHER UPDATE 31st JULY 2005. 1000 BST.

VERY INTENSE RAIN IMMINENT

Tobago has had some rain overnight from the first band of a developing cluster of thunderstorms to the east and north east to which I referred in my last update last night.

As I expected, there have been some very strong new bursts of convection in this system although I have not yet seen any signs of banding or circulation.

The NOAA is waiting for reports from an aircraft that has gone to investigate to see if development is occurring.

For now, Tobago will probably get a rude awaking this morning with some very intense rainfall and likely thunderstorms.

The bulk of the system is to the north east of Tobago but the southern section is set to pass over Tobago today.

As I said in yesterday’s update, the climate is quite volatile and this means that development of these systems can occur very quickly … and yet it can come to nothing.

I strongly advise caution over the next 24 hours … I will be monitoring this system carefully.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Risks reducing as the Wave begins to move away ... for the record.


WEATHER UPDATE 31st JULY 2005. 1945 BST.

MORE INTENSE RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS

The heavy rain is set to continue for a few more hours and the sun should shine again tomorrow.

During today, this developing system produced heavy rain during the morning and then Tobago had a break of a few hours as the system split into two areas of convection.

The main area of convection to the east has moved north of Tobago as the general area of thunderstorms moves north west but another burst of convection to the south of the system is now developing and this will give Tobago some more heavy rain for a few more hours.

There is an impressive outflow from this system that is easily seen on the visible Sat Loops and this observation indicates development even if the centre is a bit disorganised.

No worries though, the main area is to the North of Tobago and will move on to cause havoc somewhere else.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

For the record ... posted on Liquid Sunshine.


WEATHER UPDATE 21st AUGUST 2005. 2045 BST.

Tropical Storm Development ?

This is very early days and nothing may come of it.

There are 3 areas of potential Storm development.

The first 2 do not apply to Tobago and I will get these out of the way quickly as follows:-


• Near Belize … development likely in the Gulf in the next few days.

• North East Caribbean near Puerto Rico (formerly Tropical Depression 10) … likely develop over Cuba / Gulf … could switch north towards Florida / Texas.


The 3rd one is getting to the halfway mark across the Atlantic and I have been quite surprised how quickly this development is moving.

I have been watching this since Friday and I have noted how it is plunging to the south west although, to be fair, it is a very large depression and if there is any storm development then the centre could manifest itself anywhere over a rather wide area.

The environment in the Atlantic Ocean is becoming more favourable for Tropical Storm development as the high pressure to the north strengthens, squeezes out the shearing low pressure systems and peps up moderate east trades.

There is a little African dust around that could spoil things for this depression as it makes it’s way across the Atlantic but the hot and steamy environment that has been established over the south eastern Caribbean could provide the catalyst this depression needs to kick off as it gets closer.


The Track ?

Until I see a centre I cannot reliably predict a track but the general system appears to be moving west south west and is currently between a wide area of 7N and 17N latitude.

If this trend continues then the effects (and not necessarily the centre) of this system could arrive near Tobago late Wednesday and Thursday.

High pressure is now building and therefore, unless a weakness develops in the high pressure ridge building towards the Caribbean, this system will maintain a westerly track.


Potential Development ?

As with Tropical Depression 10, this one could get lost but this is a large system and I sense that something could come out of it.

At the very least it will be rain … I am not yet sure if development will occur before this system arrives in the Caribbean.

Much will depend on the environment left in the wake of the first Tropical Wave that is due to pass Tobago over the next 2 days.

I will monitor this system and update as developments arise.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

For the Record ...



WEATHER UPDATE 22nd AUGUST 2005. 1300 BST.

Tropical Storm Development ?

Still early days and still a question mark.

In the last 12 hours the Official Forecasters have made a special feature of the depression that I have been tracking since Friday last week.

They are having the same problems as me … finding it difficult to locate a centre for this system.

Also, the convection surrounding the system has reduced considerably and this does not help the cause of finding a centre.

I am also adjusting my prediction back to the weekend for this system’s arrival in the Caribbean.

I sense this system is going to maintain a westerly track … the high pressure to the north is building and the ITCZ is sinking south and there is therefore no reason to suggest that this system will begin to track more to the north.

There is some dry air ahead of the system but only a small chance that the system will dissipate because other aspects of the environment are reasonable for development … and this is associated with a strong Tropical Wave.

When either I or the Official Forecasters can get a good idea of where the centre is then a more reliable prediction can be made of the weather for next weekend.

I will keep providing updates.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Some relief ... for the record.



WEATHER UPDATE 23rd AUGUST 2005. 2345 BST.

Tropical Storm Development ?

No !

Now that the centre is clearly located in a more northerly position than originally suspected, I am confident that this system is unlikely to have any direct impact on Tobago’s weather.

It still has the potential for development but this is more likely to impact more northern areas of the Caribbean … I still sense a westerly track, but it is likely to veer more to the north where the high pressure weakens just before the Caribbean … the high pressure is still building so there could be a surprise in store for some.

But Tobago looks safe.

However … a number of storms are spawning within the ITCZ that is currently tracking over Tobago.

There is a cluster of storms to the east of Tobago that are, in fact, an offshoot from the Tropical Wave associated with the system I have been watching.

There is the possibility that these storms could dissipate before they reach Tobago, but it is very difficult to predict weather fluctuations within the ITCZ.

So … there is an increased risk of heavy rain for Tobago through Wednesday night and Thursday.

The main thing is … no Tropical Storm development for the weekend.

Enjoy your holidays.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

As we move into the second half of the current wet season there seems to be plenty going on following the recent lull in activity.

A few posts ago I mentioned 3 possible areas of Storm development ...


Belize ... this became Tropical Storm Jose but did not last long as Jose formed just off landfall and now represents a rain feature over the Mexican mountains.

Puerto Rico ... this is the old Tropical Depression 10 ... now Tropical Storm Katrina. This one will cause havoc across the Bahamas and may even reach Hurricane strength before landfall on the east coast of Florida. This is one to watch over the next 4 or 5 days.

So that is 2 out of 3.

I still remain confident of development in the 3rd system but the good news, as reported yesterday, is that I no longer believe this will affect Tobago.

Plenty more Tropical developments on the way ... I will keep you posted.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

For the record, from Liquid Sunshine


WEATHER UPDATE 27th AUGUST 2005. 2300 BST.

The area of showers that I referred to in my weekly forecast seems to be getting more organised.

I will be keeping watch on this and will provide further updates as this system progresses west.

Elsewhere … Hurricane Katrina is expected to become a major Cat 5 Hurricane although she seems to be going through an eyewall replacement cycle that could keep her to Cat 4.

Louisiana needs to take care with this.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

A record of a post on Liquid Sunshine ... this one could be 'Lee' and the Windwards to the north of Tobago need to watch this development. The risk of Storm activity from this for Tobago is reducing although there maybe some rain ...



WEATHER UPDATE 28th AUGUST 2005. 0945 BST.

Risk of Rain Increasing for Monday and Tuesday

The area of showers that I referred to in yesterday’s update and my weekly forecast on Saturday continues to be getting more organised.

A Depression has formed around 13N Latitude but this is surrounded by a wide area of scattered and disorganised thunderstorms along the associated Tropical Wave.

The general system appears to be starting a north westerly track and therefore the risk of Tropical Storm development is low for Tobago.

However, the environment is good for this system and it should start to get really organised soon and track towards the Windwards to the north of Tobago.

Tobago can expect an increased risk of heavy rain as I predict that the outer bands of this system (i.e.; this covers a wide area) will approach Tobago tomorrow and move away Tuesday.

A separate update on major Hurricane Katrina will be posted on the Hurricane 2005 thread.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE KATRINA UPDATE 28th AUGUST 2005.


From an innocuous Tropical Depression, Katrina has developed in one of the most powerful hurricanes so far this year.

Katrina is now Category 4 with 145 mph winds and she is expected to strengthen further to Category 5 with winds of 155 mph or more in the next 24 hours before landfall.

The forecasters are predicting landfall along the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and the western fringes of Florida.

I suspect Katrina could be a little more to the west which would bring Texas into the risk zone.

She is wobbling dramatically which is typical of a powerful and developing hurricane and it is difficult to precisely predict land fall at this stage even though this is only 24 hours away.

The forecasters and local authorities in these US States have their hands full in this dangerous situation.

I hope that everyone in these areas take suitable measures to optimise their safety.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

DEADLY HURRICANE KATRINA UPDATE 28th AUGUST 2005 …1630 BST.

I have been tracking Katrina closely today and assessed the information coming in from the forecasters.

They are getting it slightly wrong as Katrina continues to track slightly more west than their mathematical models … I hope they get it right … otherwise this could be embarrassing and very dangerous and I suggest they use a little intuition and experience on this occasion.

This is a deadly Hurricane, a full blown Cat 5 with 160 mph or stronger sustained winds. Worse than Dennis and worse than Ivan.

The central landfall impact area is going to be flattened and a wide swathe of devastation will track well inland from this Storm.

I hope Katrina goes through an eye wall replacement cycle just before landfall … it would still be catastrophic but an eye wall replacement cycle could weaken the Hurricane just temporarily and the timing before landfall could save lives.

Watch for the news tomorrow morning … I feel worried for the people living anywhere on the northern Gulf Coast and I hope they act on any Warnings given (without question) for the sake of their safety.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

DEVASTATING HURRICANE KATRINA UPDATE 28th AUGUST 2005 … 1915 BST.

Katrina is now getting the news and hopefully those living along the north Gulf Coast are taking heed of the warnings.

Katrina is now swinging a little more to the north which indicates that the weather models are getting closer to the real thing … I still think it is going a little to the west.

New Orleans is the place in the news today and I believe that it will be in the news for some time to come.

Based on a 907mb pressure reading issued by the Official Forecasters, Katrina is the second most powerful Hurricane in recorded history and could yet become the most powerful Hurricane ever in living and recorded memory.

Not only that … Katrina is perfectly formed, has a huge eye and is much bigger … media reports (not official) of sustained winds in excess of 175 mph are already being issued and I find these believable based on a central pressure of 907 mb or less.

It is quite ironic that Katrina has already demoted the horrendous Hurricane Camille into 3rd place in Hurricane history … it was Camille who devastated the same areas around New Orleans 36 years ago.

My thoughts are with those living along the Northern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow morning.


Regards