2005 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

2005 – MID-SEASON ASSESSMENT

I started this new Hurricane thread to focus on the Hurricane Season for 2005.


The Story So Far …

This season has been exceptional with 14 Tropical Depressions forming so far.

Of these, 13 have developed into Tropical Storms and, of these, 4 have become Hurricanes … 3 of these were major Hurricanes.

As I write, a 5th Hurricane (Maria) is predicted to form to the east of the Leewards Islands.


2005 Names

Hurricanes in red, Tropical Storms in Blue and the remaining eight names (to come?) are bold.

Arlene … Bret …Cindy …Dennis …Emily … Franklin … Gert … Harvey … Irene … Jose … Katrina … Lee … Maria … Nate … Ophelia … Phillipe … Rita … Stan … Tammy … Vince … Wilma.

8 names left … will we be going back to the beginning of the alphabet?


Prediction

The National Hurricane Centre is now predicting up to 21 Tropical Storms of which up to 11 could become Hurricanes with up to 7 of these becoming major Hurricanes.

This was before Katrina, so the Caribbean could expect another 6 Hurricanes, 4 of which could be major, before the end of the season.

It is difficult to disagree with these predictions if we bear in mind that the 2nd half of each season is normally more active as the sea temperatures warm up.


El Nino?

I did speculate that an El Nino could suppress Storm activity in the latter half of this season but this has not materialised.

However, as I indicated in my last assessment … El Nino’s have generally had a wider impact on the world’s weather so it is difficult to say if this is a good or bad thing either way.


Tobago Reflection

Tobago is closely linked to 2 of the major Hurricanes this season.

Firstly, around the 4th July Dennis formed after passing Tobago as a Tropical Depression and then went on to become a major Category 4 Hurricane.

2 weeks later, Emily gave Tobago an even bigger scare and became a Hurricane as she passed Tobago and briefly hit Category 5 before striking Cuba.

During very active periods such as the current period from 1995, Tobago is going to have to start accepting that her location is no longer ‘too far south’ to be affected by Hurricanes.

3 close calls (including Ivan) in one year is a convincing argument … the ‘big one’ could come one day and Tobago should assess the impact Ivan had on Grenada and ensure that she is prepared.

Perhaps the Katrina event gives more food for thought …


General

One of the most notable aspects of this season has been the consistent inability of Storms to develop fully in the Atlantic Ocean.

The conditions have not been right due to strong upper easterly airflows across the mid-Atlantic.

At the time of writing, the first Storm (Maria) has developed in the Atlantic but at a northerly latitude, away from the strong easterlies.

Otherwise, the typical Storm system has travelled across the Atlantic and exploded into life as soon as it reaches the warm Caribbean Sea.

This has made predictions very difficult because the Official Forecasters use mathematical data for their weather models which only become reasonably accurate after a Storm has matured and left a track record.

These weather models are practically useless for assessing new and developing Storms such as Emily when she came to life over Tobago and the warnings were actually downgraded … that could have been disastrous.

Yet I find it possible to broadly assess these Storms by looking at the Satellite pictures.

I have noted that the NOAA have announced a new Storm Prediction model that may be able to predict as far as 2 weeks ahead … we shall see …

The NOAA monitor developments across the Atlantic very well but they do appear to have consistent problems in predicting the track of developing Storms.

Once a Storm has been moving for a few days then the predictions by the NOAA improve dramatically as they did with Katrina.


The Katrina Event

As I predicted, Katrina became the most devastating Hurricane to hit the US … what can we learn?

Two key factors became apparent from Katrina … firstly she was powerful, that is clear when we see pictures of whole towns and coastal resorts totally flattened by her winds.

The second and most important factor about Katrina was her central pressure … it dropped to around 902mb. This was noted by the Official Forecasters about 12 hours before Katrina passed just to the east of New Orleans … too late !!

The lower the pressure then the higher the sea level will rise and, consequently, the higher and more devastating will be the sea surge as the Hurricane makes landfall.

However, the most devastating impact was the flooding of New Orleans after the Hurricane passed to the east and breached the flood barriers. Consequently the city was gradually filled with water.

Katrina was indeed a powerful Hurricane, however other geographical, commercial and social factors have combined to give Katrina the notoriety that she probably does not deserve:-


• Firstly, the area where Katrina struck … I do not mean to be cruel when I say this but, arguably, New Orleans should probably not have been there in the first place … as the “I told you so’s” are now shouting, the city is below sea level and surrounded by water with restricted access in and out … a disaster in waiting.

• Commercial interests have prevented the strengthening of the New Orleans barriers in order to allow large sailing vessels access to deliver and export commodities.


Much of the devastation is not purely the responsibility of the Hurricane and it is probably unfair to blame the US President, like him or loathe him … it would have been the same for any President … no doubt the US emergency services around the Gulf Coast areas will respond to this experience positively for the future.

So instead of listening to the media ridiculing of the US, other potentially Hurricane prone Countries (including Trinidad & Tobago) can take on board the lessons and plan and prepare for such events … such planning should be in permanent place because it is impossible to prepare for a Hurricane strike like this over a few days.

It is time to identify areas that could suffer like New Orleans … or to assess other low lying areas around the Caribbean … if this is not done then future strikes of this nature will always be more costly and difficult to manage in the long run.


Summary

I will continue to post Hurricane activity here for the record.

I hope the whole of the Caribbean considers the preparations needed for major Hurricane strikes.


Watch this space.

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hi Paul;
Very interesting Post.
In your post you mentioned
The second and most important factor about Katrina was her central pressure … it dropped to around 902mb Why would this unusually low pressure cause a higher Storm surge ? Also, could it be safe to say that the lower the pressure and the tighter the eye, the more powerful the hurricane thus a higer storm surge?

As for Trinidad and Tobago and strom preparedness - We Trinis are under a false sense of hope that we lie too far south to be impacted. The near misses of Ivan and Emilly will hopefully enlighten the authorites to take note and prepare.
If memory serves me correctly the last Tropical Storm to hit Trinidad was Alma in 1975 or 1976 - That was scary enough, I was 5 years old and remember that as if it were yesterday, farless a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane !
I read somewhere that a hurricane hit south Trinidad in the 1930's.

As for New Orleans, there are no words that can describe the suffering.
Regards
Roger.

[Paul Tallet]

It's quite difficult to describe Roger.

Storm surges are predicted by measuring Wind Speed, Central Pressure; the Size of the Storm, it's Forward Speed and it's Track (i.e.; the sea depth and the landfall site).

Account also needs to be taken of the tide variation at the time of landfall (i.e.; a high or low tide).

There are 2 factors ... the churning winds ahead of the eye can cause a surge ahead of the storm (i.e.; if you blow hard enough into your Rum Punch, some of it will fly out of your glass ... obviously I recommend that you carry out this experiment when you have a quiet moment to yourself as you tend to lose credibility with others when performing this during social occasions)

The central pressure can create a 'bump' in the ocean surface ... depressions are sucking energy from the sea as they pass over the water.

Storm surges are not exclusive to Hurricanes.

One very common and less extreme example is what happens in the North Sea to the East of the UK when a typical Depression moves over the north of Scotland and finishes up in the North Sea.

As the North Sea is quite shallow a deep Depression can raise the sea level and cause similar surges down the East coast of the UK and down to Holland.

These surges can cause severe flooding if they occur at the same time as a high tide.

London has tidal defenses and so does Holland in order to avoid the catastrophic flooding experienced in the 1950's.

This is something that New Orleans must improve if the city wants to stay where it is.

I hope this helps

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

For the record ...


WEATHER UPDATE 3rd SEPTEMBER 2005. 1730 BST.

Monday Night and Tuesday

The system I referred to in my weekly update on Saturday seems to be capable of development.

The official forecasters are writing this system off for now but I sense that they feel that it could develop when it reaches the Caribbean.

My readings of the Infra Red Sat Loops are that it is maintaining it’s intensity … it is not intensifying and it is not weakening and just seems to be sustaining itself.

I know it may seem amateurish to say it like this but when I look on the Visible Sat Loops this system is taking on a type of ‘fluffy’ appearance … this is often described as ‘outflow’ by those that wear big trousers … this tells me that this is a system waiting for the right environment.

There is dry air ahead of this system and this could hinder development, but so far it seems to be holding it’s own and, as a consequence, I am becoming more confident that development will happen at some point … it just depends where the juicy steak is along it’s track.

As a minimum, Tobago can expect some heavy rain overnight Monday and into Tuesday.

The system is currently around 10N latitude and about 500 miles east of Tobago.

Keeping watch … more updates to come.

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hi Paul;
Excellent explaination, as always.
Today being a holiday in the U.S. It gives me a perfect opportunity to carry out this experiment
Roger

[Paul Tallet]

For the record ...


WEATHER UPDATE 5th SEPTEMBER 2005. 1515 BST.

Monday and Monday Night … HEAVY RAIN

The system I have been watching has arrived a little earlier than I expected and heavy rain is breaking out across Tobago as I write.

Expect intense periods of rain plus the possibility of Thunderstorms for the next 12 hours.

Forget any outdoor activities for the rest of today … go to the bar and have a nice Rum Punch.

Looking at the sat loops I am sensing that this system is becoming a little more invigorated as it moves into warmer seas.

I will keep watch for any further developments.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE 6th SEPTEMBER 2005. 1915 BST.

Tobago is in a more showery regime until around Friday … more details in Liquid Sunshine.

The purpose of this post is to cover some unusually active storm development in the Atlantic off the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane Maria is veering off to the north east across the Atlantic and could be a significant autumn storm for Northern Europe by the weekend or early next week.

Another Tropical Storm ‘Nate’ is following Maria and threatening Bermuda … not sure if this will be a hurricane yet but a possibility.

The 3rd issue is Tropical Depression 16 … could be Ophelia … just to the east of Florida … needs watching.

All three of these developments have occurred in a relatively small area in the West Atlantic … quite unusual and I have not got the faintest clue why this has happened … thought I would say that before someone asks me why !!

Anyway … on reflection I am beginning to sense that Tobago has had a good wet season … very ‘Scary Mary’ for the first 2 weeks of July … but pretty good with lots of sunshine otherwise.

Not much brewing in the Atlantic … seems to be the trend this year.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

For the record ...


WEATHER UPDATE

15th SEPTEMBER 2005. 0445 BST.

WARNING OF HEAVY RAIN / STRONG WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND

Hi everyone

Before I jump on my plane … there is some risk that the system I have been watching in the Atlantic may develop further as it approaches from the East.

This is about 2 days away so I guess it will affect Tobago on Saturday.

I am not going to be able to monitor this very well as I will be away until late Saturday so for now …

High risk of heavy rain

30% risk of Tropical Depression

10% risk of Tropical Storm

I will update if I can.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

For the record ...


WEATHER UPDATE

17th SEPTEMBER 2005. 1845 BST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17

Hi everyone

Just got back from a trip away.

The system that I was referring to in my previous updates is now a Tropical Depression about 300 miles directly east of Barbados.

It seems that this system has slowed down as I expected it to be near Tobago by now.

It also seems that it will not directly affect Tobago but there is still the risk of some heavy rain Sunday and Monday.

I will provide a full weekly update tomorrow (Sunday) as my normal service resumes.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

For the record ...

There should be some weather over the next few days ...


TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE

17th SEPTEMBER 2005. 2330 BST.

HIGH RISK OF HEAVY RAIN … NEXT 48 - 96 HOURS

Not yet declared a Tropical Storm … I have monitored this over the last few hours.

I have just observed a huge convective burst from this system and I daresay that ‘Philippe’ will be a feature by tomorrow morning and a Hurricane within 24 hours.

Problem is … he is hardly moving !! … just expanding !!

The Official Forecasters predict a north-west track but, as always, the weather models and their mathematical data often make errors for developing Storms and the lack of direction in this Storm hardly helps their cause.

Philippe is in an ideal environment for strengthening and he could go anywhere … he is just considering his options.

The track of Philippe will be relatively close to Tobago and bands of heavy rainfall are highly likely to develop over Tobago shortly.

Due to the slow moving and almost static nature of this Storm I hope that Tobago is in a ‘cautionary state’ over the next 3 to 4 days … a lot can happen and I sense that Hurricane status will be achieved over this period.

Philippe would typically move more to the north as the Forecasters predict … but they did not predict that he would stop and hang around …

… this needs watching … Tobago should be ready, just in case.

Update tomorrow morning.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

An extract from the Weekly Weather in Liquid Sunshine on 18th September for the record.

There is a very active week ahead ...



The General Position

I wish I could draw a diagram !!

I will start with the Atlantic High that has broadened across the Atlantic and allowing moderate trades to cross from the west coast of Africa to the Caribbean.

A string of Tropical developments are circling around the High with former Hurricane Orphelia racing north east over the top of the High towards northern Europe and a chain of Tropical Depressions and Storms developing to the south and west of the High and threatening the eastern Caribbean.

This indicates another very active period in this season … it is hotting up !!

The ITCZ is at a low latitude, carrying quite a lot of moisture and this passes close to Tobago.

A number of kinks in the ITCZ indicate the presence of a series of Tropical Waves and associated Depressions that are moving across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean.

The already high sea surface temperatures have increased over the last week in the Caribbean and I have also noticed an increase also in the Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

All the ingredients are in place for Hurricane development to take place more to the east in the Atlantic which is good news … if they can be tracked for a while before they reach populated areas then the predictions should be more accurate.


Areas of Concern

Starting with Philippe who I predicted would become a Tropical Storm last night …

Philippe is currently the closest to Tobago of all the developments … he has been quite static and it has been difficult to know which way he will go.

In the last 12 hours he has been winding himself up and shifted a little up to the North as a result of some strong convective bursts … this is not really a track although it looks unlikely that Philippe will have any direct impact on Tobago.

Philippe’s outflow is impressive as the Storm expands and there is the possibility of some heavy rain over Tobago from Philippe’s outer rain bands over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Although the risks with Philippe for Tobago are low we must not forget that this is a developing new Storm that can spring a few surprises until the exact position of the Storm Centre is located.

In addition to Philippe there are 3 other areas of development:-


To the east of the Bahamas is Tropical Depression 18 … this one is likely to cause concern for northern areas of the Caribbean, maybe Florida, but more likely Gulf Coastal areas that have already been affected by Hurricane Katrina.

Tropical Depressions 19 and 20 … not yet confirmed … one close to Panama and another moving west towards the Caribbean at a very low latitude … this one is of some concern and I will be watching this over the next few days.

[Paul Tallet]

Update on Philippe for the record


TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE - UPDATE

18th SEPTEMBER 2005. 1845 BST.


I still cannot see a clear track although it does seem apparent that Philippe is moving North.

The track is really non-existent due to the fact that Philippe is winding himself up and the convective bursts are making the Storm Centre jump about a bit … in the last hour the sat loops indicated a move to the east !!

This is how these young developing Storms can be so volatile and difficult to understand.

So, while Philippe makes up his mind he is still expanding and his outflow is quite strong to the south and the east as he sucks up the energy from the warm Atlantic Ocean.

Tobago is likely to be the recipient of a few heavy showers or thunderstorms from this outflow over the next 24 hours.

The rest of the Windward Islands to the north also look likely to have some rain if Philippe tracks north as the official predictions indicate and landfall in the Caribbean would be unlikely if this prediction proves correct.

When Philippe gets organised he will decide his track and all Islands on the windward side of the Caribbean should remain cautious for the time being as the High pressure to the north is building and may block a northerly track … which probably explains (logically and not mathematically!) why Philippe is not moving anywhere fast at the moment.


Further Development to the East

A disorganised system is about mid-Atlantic right now and may get it’s act together in the next 2 days.

If it tracks towards Tobago the time arrival would be around Wednesday and Thursday.

Again, there should be a northerly swing to the track as the system approaches the Caribbean, however the High pressure is building to the north and this may keep the system (and Philippe) on a more westerly track.

I will keep you all informed.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

PHILIPPE, RITA AND STAN?

19th SEPTEMBER 2005. 0130 BST.


At last … Philippe has made his decision, and a wise one.

Tropical Depression 18 is now upgraded to Tropical Storm Rita.

And Stan could be developing in the mid-Atlantic, again at a low latitude … with the High pressure building to the north, potential Stan needs watching.

Just like Emily, Philippe has shown what developing Storms can do when they show potential and then find the right environment.

Having raced across the Atlantic, he slowed and sat around … drank from the warm seas and has now gone off like a rocket to the north.

Credit to the Official Forecasters who got this one absolutely right … it looks like Philippe could be a major Hurricane but unlikely that he will make landfall.


Rita is a problem though … the Bahamas and Florida will have some of Rita but it looks likely that Cuba could get the brunt due to high pressure to the north that could steer Rita on a westerly track … Cuba’s bad luck will be of some relief to the Gulf states recently devastated by Katrina.


Stan (potentially) is next. With Philippe’s track ahead of the Stan development there would seem little scope of development in the wake of another Tropical Storm (i.e.; Hurricanes reduce the sea temperature).

So this development is a worry for Tobago if he stays on a westerly track or alternatively he will steer a little further north and struggle in the slipstream left by Philippe.

High pressure is building from the north and a westerly track over more energising waters seems more likely to me if Stan really wants to be the man.

I will be watching this development over the next 3 days … keep your diaries clear for the end of the week, just in case.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

For the record ...


WEATHER UPDATE

19th SEPTEMBER 2005. 2330 BST.

Philippe is well away and, apart from a slight threat to Bermuda, there seems little prospect of landfall as a Hurricane anywhere.

A lot of heavy rain is around Tobago right now and so far Tobago has got away with it … watch out for the possibility of some heavy rain overnight and tomorrow.

The system in the mid-Atlantic appears to be dwindling but this could still produce some rain and develop nearer the Caribbean in the next 2 to 3 days … it is still on a westerly track and I will continue to watch it.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Philippe & Rita


I am pretty surprised that the depression I have been watching this week has been sucked up into the Philippe circulation and this provides Tobago with a much brighter future for the rest of this week.

Philippe is struggling against some westerly shear and it is touch and go as to whether he will retain hurricane status although this is pretty academic because he still poses no threat to land (apart from a tiny risk to Bermuda).

Hurricane Rita is the big story, churning through the strait between Florida and Cuba and already Category 2.

The Gulf waters are currently particularly accommodating for Hurricanes and a couple of weeks have passed since Katrina cooled the waters.

Indications are that Rita will eventually head for a landfall in Texas but this could change ... there is a long way to go and prospects of development into another major Hurricane.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Philippe and Rita

Following up on my last update ...


Philippe seems to be falling apart ... as we gentlemen can do when we lose direction ... but he remains a force to be reckoned with as heavy rains now affect the northern Windward Islands and he has the power to pull other minor tropical depressions off their track.

We cannot rule out redevelopment should Philippe find the right environment.

Rita is a different prospect altogether ... this lady knows where to find her food and clothing, as ladies do ... she has become well organised and has found a good track across the Gulf ... Texas seems to have the highest risk and I hope those living there take the necessary precautions.

There is currently nothing else of note in the Atlantic, apart from another vast plume of Saharan dust that should stifle any Tropical Storm development for the next 4 to 5 days.

I will keep you informed


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Philippe and Rita

Philippe is a mess (and downgarded to a Tropical Storm) but he is trying hard ... he is no threat to land and should give up ... if he regenerates he would take a more westward track and could be a problem for the eastern US Coast.

Rita is a bigger problem although the media interest seems to be willing her to attack New Orleans ... it won't happen ... maybe New Orleans will get a little rain from the outer rainbands of Rita as she passes to the south but I really have serious doubts about this idea that further flooding will result there ... it is pure hype.

Texas should be watching Rita ... this is where Rita is going ... to TEXAS.

The next 12 hours are crucial because the sea temperatures ahead of Rita are pretty hot and all the ingredients are there for Rita to become another devastating Hurricane ... she is already Cat 4.

There may be up to 2 eyewall recycles in the next 48 to 60 hours before landfall ... Hurricanes weaken during eyewall recycles but only temporarily ... landfall will be a bad experience for any that are within 100 miles of the centre but the timing/eyewall cycle could be the difference between a hellish experience or total devastation.

The whole coast of Texas and extreme western parts of Louisiana should be evacuated immediately.

Updates to follow ...

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Rita

I guess some will be listening or reading to media reports with horror and others may be checking out the NOAA Hurricane Warning site.

The gulf in reporting between two opposite ends of the information spectrum is vast and it is important to get Hurricane Rita into perspective.

Firstly, Rita is a major Hurricane at Cat 5 with sustained wind speeds of 170 mph or higher.

Secondly, Rita has a pressure reading of 914mb and could break Katrina's lowest reading of 908mb ... this is a factor that will influence tidal levels around the whole of the Gulf over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Thirdly, Rita will peak in strength over the next 12 to 24 hours over warm waters ... yes chaps, this Hurricane will get stronger ... probably another record breaker.

Fourthly ... always a sensitive one this ... I sense that Rita will knock out more Oil Rigs and Refineries than Katrina, Dennis and Emily put together ... some long term economic damage possible ... so put your money on commodities while you can !!

But ... in reality and focusing on the more ethical and humane aspects ... and I refer to my previous post ... I reckon Rita will go through a few eyewall cycles before her landfall in Texas and, although she will be a major Hurricane at the time of landfall I sense that she will not be quite as strong as Cat 5 as some scaremongers in the media suggest.

New Orleans will get a little rain and tidal levels will be a little higher than normal ... but not enough to breach flood barriers ... so I hope the media soon realise this and stop hyping matters ... for once, please??

Watching the sat loops ... there has been a small wobble to the north and I sense that Rita is going for the northern half of the Texan Coast ...

... I would recommend that measures are taken to remove all human habitation from the whole coast of Texas and 100 miles of the extreme west of the Louisiana Coastline ... these measures should apply as far as 50 miles inland from these coastal districts.

This needs to be done before Friday midday local time ... what a worry for the US Authorities with the media crawling all over the place !!

The pressure is on, but it can be done ...

... If the media can do one thing ... they could save more lives by diverting attention away from New Orleans and to the cause in Texas ...

I will update tomorrow.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Rita strengthens ... could this be the Peak?


This morning a pressure reading of 897 mb was recorded making Rita the 3rd most intense Hurricane in history.

Just the sort of information the media needed to go into overdrive ... but if those on the northern Texas Coast hear the news loud and clear I have a sense that only the daft ones will stay around to ride out the storm.

If the central pressure does not increase there could be a devastating storm surge of considerable proportions ... I think it will increase if Rita weakens as I predict.

As I suggested in my previous posts, I sense this could be the peak ... an eyewall recycle will temporarily weaken Rita and the environment ahead is not as accommodating with slightly cooler seas surface temperatures and upper winds could cause some shear to the Hurricane.

Another point I made has happened ... Rita is tracking slightly to the north of the mathematical model predictions and is likely to make landfall to the northern half of Texas.

On this basis, I sense Rita will weaken slightly although she will still be a major event at landfall. The New Orleans issue that the media keep reminding us of would be gale force winds at worst coupled with a high tide and choppy waters ... simply not enough to cause the devastation of Katrina.

There is just one worry ... Rita has been slowing down ... if she slows too much then all the predictions go out the window and she could go anywhere and intensity forecasts would need to be revised ... let us not forget that most major Hurricanes spring a surprise or two ...

... my vigil is not over yet.

Regards

Just one worry

[Dianne O.]

Hi, Paul. I live in Central Texas and we are being rather viligant given what has happened in New Orleans and Mississippi. The meterologists here are predicting intensive winds of 50-60 miles per hour along with heavy rains in Central Texas if the Hurricane tracks towards Galveston/Houston or even farther East. What do you think?

The sad thing is that all of the evacueess from Katrina who are in Texas shelters and temporary housing have been moved again out of those shelters and tranferred to other states to make room for evacuees and potential victims of Rita.

Thanks for your reporting.

Take care, Dianne