2005 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

Wilma now CAT 5

Wilma has suddenly exploded into a major Cat 5 Hurricane with a central pressure lower than that of Rita.

The intensification has been so quick that Wilma has been spinning like a top and veering between a northerly and westerly direction ... consequently it is difficult to predict precisely where her initial track will take her.

This is very dangerous and therefore a wide swath including the Yucatan, Caymans and the western half of Cuba should be fully prepared for hurricane conditions.

An even wider swathe will experience very heavy rains.

The good news is the width of the Hurricane wind field is still quite small and so the hurricane effects will tend to be localised, but the rains are going to be the main problems in areas, such as Jamaica, that are already saturated.

Wilma will grow and her power and exceptionally low central pressure will combine to create high seas and higher than normal tides in many coastal areas even great distances away from the hurricane.

I am wondering if Wilma will maintain her strength for more than 72 hours ... Florida and the eastern Gulf coastal states should watch this and be fully prepared by the weekend.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Wilma Update

Yet to be verified ... the NOAA have reported a minimum central pressure reading of 884mb ... if this is verified this will be the lowest pressure ever recorded in a Hurricane.

The reported ferocious 175mph sustained wind speeds would seem consistent with such a low pressure reading.

As I said earlier ... the hurricane force winds only extend about 16 miles from the centre for now and any land that catches this central area would be very unlucky ... although this core wind field will expand quickly and the risks will become more widespread over the next 48 hours.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Wobbling Wilma

After today's explosive episode, Wilma has weakened a little and appears to be going through an eyewall recycle ... after all, she has had a very tiny eye and so I guess there could be a bigger and deadlier black eye staring back at us as we see tomorrow's visible sat loops.

But this is still a very powerful hurricane undergoing the first eyewall replacement and Wilma could get deadlier still as she approaches the Yucatan peninsula ... people there should take care ... or not be there.

The hurricane force wind field has expanded to 50 miles outwards from the centre and therefore Wilma is now, not only the most ferocious hurricane on record for decades, but also getting larger and with a wider risk span for any countries in her path.

The power of Wilma is evident in her eye's continuous veering round in circles as she spirals to the north west ... this is some storm.

Even if Wilma does weaken when she arrives in the Gulf ... Florida should be making preparations now.

More updates tomorrow.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Wilma Update


Wilma is going through a very prolonged double eyewall replacement cycle and a very large eye now appears to be forming from my view of the visible sat loops.

This process has weakened Wilma to a Category 4 Hurricane (still very dangerous) but there is a good chance that Wilma could strengthen and reach Category 5 status again.

The prospects are ominous for the north eastern area of the Yucatan Pensinsula ... the track has been continually adjusted to the west and the chances of landfall on the peninsula are increasing.

This is important ... the more interaction with the landmass of Mexico then the more likely Wilma could weaken considerably and possibly not recover very much on her journey through the Gulf towards Florida.

But it is really too early to tell ... Wilma is very unpredictable and the demonstration of her record breaking power, so far, puts myself and the official forecasters into uncharted territory ... I guess there could be a few more surprises over the next few days ... I emphasise that Wilma is an exceptional and unprecedently powerful phenomenon.

All I can say is that <currently> the propectus is improving for Florida and the prospectus is declining rapidly for the Yucatan ... if the track goes much further west then the Northern Gulf Coast States have to be included in the forecasting equation.

I will keep you posted.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Further Tropical Storm development seems to be happening to the north of Grenada.

Here is a copy of a post from Liquid Sunshine ...



WEATHER UPDATE – 21st OCTOBER 2005 … 2000 BST.

HEAVY RAIN RISK CONTINUES PLUS DEVELOPMENTS NORTH OF GRENADA


Hi everyone.

Tobago has had some heavy and prolonged bursts of rain since my last update on Wednesday.

These are likely to continue for the rest of today and possibly into tomorrow.

The Tropical Wave that is producing this rain has formed a depression to the north of Grenada where the heaviest rain is most concentrated.

This is unlikely to affect Tobago, however it looks likely to develop into a Tropical Depression … having exhausted the alphabet of Storm names I wonder if this could eventually be called ‘Alpha’?

See the 2005 Hurricane string for updates on Wilma.


Regards everyone …

[Paul Tallet]

Wilma Strikes Yucatan Pensinsula

Wilma has not quite regained Category 5 status but she is close with wind speeds of around 145 mph.

Hell on Earth has visited the Yucatan Pensinsula and the well known resort of Cancun.

The problem with Wilma is that she is moving very slowly at about 5 knots to the north west ... the longer her centre stays over the mainland then the more she will weaken, yet the prolonged stay would mean worse rains and consequent flooding over the Yucatan, not to mention the ferocious winds.

I hope she speeds up for the sake of those in this area but then that would lead to another poison ... Western Cuba and Florida.

If the poor Yucatan soaks up the brunt of Wilma then she will be a much weaker Hurricane when and if she eventually visits Cuba and Florida ... if Wilma speeds up, then more trouble.

Wilma can still bring surprises ... I will be watching.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Wilma Update

Wilma is weakening as she makes very slow progress over the Yucatan Pensinsula, although I expect that there will be considerable wind damage and severe flooding from the heavy rains.

Considerable outflow is streaming to the north east and Florida is already getting heavy rain from this flow ... the outer convective bands are also producing very heavy rain over Cuba and Cuba is probably going to get copious amounts of further rain over the next 48 hours as Wilma tracks to the north and towards Florida ... expect severe flooding in Cuba.


Tropical Depression 25

The Alpha that I have been talking about has just been declared the 25th Tropical Depression of the 2005 season.

It looks likely to develop into a Tropical Storm at the very least and it shall be named 'Alpha' if it does so.

This is likely to be more of a rain event and the following countries are at risk of severe flooding over the next few days ... Dominican Republic; Haiti; Bahamas and eventually Bermuda.

The prospects for Haiti are of particular concern where the country has had severe flooding events for the last 3 years and plenty of rain has already fallen over Haiti over the last 2 weeks.

It looks like No. 25 could cross paths with Wilma before either of them reach Bermuda so it looks like a pretty active weather pattern for the north east of the Caribbean over the next 4 days.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Wilma / Alpha Update

Wilma is gathering speed as she makes progress towards Florida. Her expanding wind field will bring high winds to a wide area, including the Bahamas.

Strengthening is not occurring and not expected but you never know.

The NOAA deserve applause for their excellent forecasting of Wilma ... right on the button, although Wilma went a little further inland over the Yucatan than they expected ... but such trivial points like that are not really fair because we must remember that Wilma was a first in terms of her initial power and anything could have happened ... it was new ground ... I guess this very active season has honed their skills superbly.

Alpha is now dumping huge volumes of rain over the Dominican Republic and Haiti ... the Haiti situation will be of concern.

Both Wilma and Alpha will interact at some point ... Wilma is winning the race to Florida and Alpha is likely to be absorbed by Wilma with the Bahamas being attacked from 2 sides.

It is going to be very interesting to see what happens in the next 2 to 3 days.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Wilma /Alpha Update

Wilma is now increasing speed towards Florida ... her outer convective bands are already over the west of Florida and the winds will now be picking up.

Cuba is taking a deluge and there are still rain bands over the Yucatan which appears to have taken considerable damage.

There are ominous signs of a gradual intensification which does not surprise me but this is not good news for tomorrow when Wilma will be making landfall.

The only good news is that Wilma is picking up speed and her presence over Florida will be relatively brief.

Alpha is very disorganised and was downgraded to a Tropical Depression earlier today ... again not surprising having been over the Dominican and Haiti ... but there seems to be a circulation just north of the landmass and reintensification to Tropical Storm status is possible but would be brief before Alpha is absorbed by Wilma.

I hope Haiti is OK.

Not a nice night and day ahead for the Bahamas.

This is my last post on these subjects ... I am sure the media will tell the rest of the story ... I will only comment if they are exagerrating !!

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Wilma's Journey North


Now past Florida and rocketing away to the North East.

Wilma is strengthening again, but not for long as the inevitable weakening has to occur over cooler seas ... but again ... don't be suprised and forget the Tropical Storm that visited Portugal recently.

The driving force behind this post is Wilma's next destination ... Northern Europe and likely the UK.

Wilma is bound to degrade into an extra-tropical Storm as she progresses north into the Atlantic but she still looks capable of developing into a major Depression System over the North Atlantic by the weekend.

The UK has had very warm weather for this time of year with a succession of depressions bringing a very warm flow from the southern Atlantic and North Africa and Southern Europe ... think about it ... how often do you get rain with temperatures of +18 degrees Celsius in the UK at the end of October?

On this basis, the sea temperatures around the west of Ireland will be higher than usual even if cooler air is being pulled down from the north on the other side of the depressions currently affecting the UK ... (i.e.; water takes longer to cool and warm than ... air !).

There still plenty of sea-food for Wilma to feed from.

On checking the Met Office website there seems to be no recognition of the existence of Wilma on their Pressure Charts ... hmmm.

This is pure speculation on my part ... but I sense that Wilma could have a profound effect on the the weather in Northern Europe and possibly the UK by Sunday/Monday next week.

Lets be positive ... I look forward to breathing some of the moist Caribbean air that she brings with her.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Hurricane Beta and other Activity

Not a hurricane just yet but this new Tropical Storm is rapidly intensifying to category 1 status near Central America.

The rains over Tobago are easing now that a vigorous Tropical Wave has passed and there just may be a chance of some development from this system as it progresses westwards through the Caribbean Sea.

Back on the farm ... so to speak ... the remnants of Wilma will have a part to play in a very deep depression approaching Western Europe ... it is unlikely to cross the UK but will provide plenty of rain as far north as Iceland and as far south as North Africa ... the UK will get gales but they will be warm gales as the southerly airflows maintain the exceptionally warm UK weather.

The cold will come though ... so book your holidays to Tobago for the winter !!

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Copy of a post on Liquid Sunshine for the record for the very active 2005 Hurricane Season ...


WEATHER UPDATE – 12th NOVEMBER 2005 … 2230 GMT.

I am still monitoring the small circulation about 300 miles to the east of Tobago … I mentioned this in my Weekly Update this morning.

It’s progress is painstakingly slow and, if anything, it has tracked a little more to the south … how it is surviving is strange because the westerly shear is quite strong … but then logic would explain that the more southerly track is keeping it away from the shear.

Rain is inevitable for Tobago later this weekend and into early next week as the storm clouds are gathering everywhere in the very moist southern Caribbean …

… but I am still going to watch this little complication to the east of Tobago … it has become a little more organised with a strong convective burst … I note that the NOAA have picked up the scent in it’s Tropical forecast this morning.

I will copy this post to the Hurricane string for the record.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Copy of warning given on Liquid Sunshine in advance of sever weather ... for the record ...


WEATHER WARNING – 13th NOVEMBER 2005 … 0930 GMT.

SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATER TODAY, OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY

I have continued to monitor the ‘small’ circulation to the east of Tobago.

This has now expanded into a much larger area of stormy weather producing thunderstorms and, judging by the outflow, strong winds.

The system is being monitored by the NOAA for further development over the next 36 hours.

This is a potentially dangerous and fledgling system that is expected to affect Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada, Barbados and as far north as St Lucia.

I am concerned that this system has survived very strong westerly shear and this therefore makes other aspects of the local environment very suitable for Tropical Storm development.

I would recommend that precautions are taken by everyone in Tobago in preparation for some intense and persistent rainfall together with the prospect of very strong and gusty winds over the next 48 hours.

In other words, try to avoid trips and stay near to your bases … just in case.

I will provide further updates as I monitor the progress of this system.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER WARNING – 13th NOVEMBER 2005 … 1330 GMT.

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE

I have switched updates regarding this system to the Hurricane string due to the potential for development of this system and the direct or indirect influence it’s weather will have on Tobago over the next 48 to 72 hours.

The system is gamely fighting against the westerly shear as it tries to make progress towards the Caribbean Sea.

There have been reports of high winds and squally showers in Barbados although the worst is likely yet to come.

The centre of the system is about 100 miles to the east of Tobago but due to the westerly shear there is little convection developing to the west of the centre and the cloud tops have warmed to some degree.

To the east of the centre is where the intense rain is currently falling.

I would not be surprised to see a strong convective burst suddenly develop at any time today or tonight as this system has the potential to develop quite quickly if it can get a handle on the shear.

I repeat my warning from my earlier post … this is a young and potentially dangerous system that is expected to affect Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada, Barbados and as far north as St Lucia … it is difficult to predict how much it could develop before it begins to affect Tobago.

I hope that everyone in Tobago and other countries that could be affected by this system are taking precautionary measures.

The main risk is currently for intense rain that could lead to flooding.

I will provide further updates as I monitor the progress of this system.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER WARNING – 13th NOVEMBER 2005 … 1645 GMT.

SEVERE WEATHER IMMINENT


What did I say?

Boom … a huge convective burst has exploded into life in the last couple of hours as the circulation has looped around from the north in an arc to the south west … right on course for Tobago and coming from the east-north-east.

There is some outflow from this small circulation that seems to be separating from the main area of rain … this outflow indicates strong winds and likely development.

The cloud canopy of this storm is moving over Tobago and the far eastern areas of Tobago (i.e.; Charlottesville) are within a few miles of the rain if this is not already falling.

Get ready for some very intense rain and squally and stormy conditions.

I will provide further updates as I monitor the progress of this system.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER WARNING – 13th NOVEMBER 2005 … 1900 GMT.

SEVERE WEATHER IMMINENT

The cloud tops are warming from the recent convection burst and the intensity of the rain is consequently weakening, although it is still pretty heavy.

New and independent bursts of convection are now forming over Trinidad and Grenada in advance of the system and these could merge later on.

The rain shroud is now covering the whole of Tobago and heavy rain will be setting in across the whole of the Island.

This system is putting up a good resistance to the unfavourable westerly airflows and I would not be surprised if it tried to regenerate with a renewed convective burst within the next 6 hours.

My warnings are unchanged … those in Tobago, Trinidad, Barbados and Grenada should take the necessary precautions in case Tropical Depression or Storm status occurs.

Due to the likely risk of flooding and squally conditions I would strongly advise that you do not make any plans for boat trips or Rainforest trips or journeys into rural areas for the next 48 hours.

I will keep updating of developments as I see them.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER WARNING – 13th NOVEMBER 2005 … 2100 GMT.

SEVERE WEATHER IMMINENT AND LIKELY TO LAST FOR DAYS

Thanks everyone for the reports from the ground.

The weather situation is looking complex for most of this week.

The Tropical Wave associated with the small depression/circulation has moved past Tobago and into the Caribbean Sea.

Nevertheless, this has left a legacy of moisture behind it and still the gregarious little worry that I have been talking about in recent updates.

The NOAA have issued an update and indicate that the westerly shear that I have spoken of could relax in a few days … this is not good news.

We must remember that this is a slow moving system fighting against a strong westerly airflow and, as a consequence, it could be around for some days.

If the shear reduces then development is more likely to occur.

The latest sat loops indicate the start of a renewed convective burst just to the east of Tobago … the convection over Trinidad and Grenada appears to be receding.

The prognosis for the week is not good … significant falls of rain and the prospect of Tropical development … please make plans for safety first.

I will keep the updates coming.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Tropical Depression No. 27

The system I have been monitoring became the 27th Tropical Depression of the current season last night.

Fortunately for Tobago the main rain area has moved north west and Grenada and Barbados northwards to as far as Antigua are receiving an absolute deluge with localised strong winds.

The air is atill very moist around the south eastern Caribbean so the risk of heavy rain remains ... the good news is that the risks of Storm development has moved away.

Expect a gradual improvement towards the endof this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Tropical Depression 27 ... Update


VERY INTENSE RAIN ... LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS

I am now very concerned that the main area of rain has extended back southwards and Tobago has been under extremely intense rainfall for the last 5 or 6 hours.

The NOAA are warning of localised rainfall totals of between 5 and 12 inches.

It is ironic that yesterday (13th November) was exactly 1 year to the day that similar rainfall totals fell over Tobago and caused loss of life and widespread damage to the environment ... today is a similar situation and could be worse if we take account of the rainfall totals that fell yesterday.

The main area of the Depression has moved on but there is no sign that the rain intensity is going to let up for a few more hours at least.

I hope everyone is safe ...

Regards

[/b]

[Annabelle Oconnell]

Hi Paul

My boyfriend Mark is in Trinidad at the moment, he landed at Port of Spain on saturday evening for a two-week trip to visit his mother... He called last night and the rain I could hear through the phone sounded quite incredible Mark wasn't very happy about it.

I hope all will be safe.

Will it be letting up in the area soon do you think?