LIQUID SUNSHINE

[Paul Tallet]

LIQUID SUNSHINE

This is a dedicated topic for weather updates on a weekly basis (Saturdays) to keep readers informed about the weather conditions in Tobago.

The objective of this topic is to give you a reasonable sense of the general weather conditions that can be expected over the course of a week (i.e.; could it be rainier or dryer than normal?).

This information will be provided based on my research of a number of weather resources (that always disagree !) combined with my understanding of developing weather patterns and more localised factors that can influence Tobago’s weather.

Occasionally an interim update may be posted during the course of a week should weather conditions be very changeable and special notices will be posted should any extreme weather conditions be expected.

Any comments and feedback of weather experienced during your visits to Tobago would be of value and these can be posted in the Liquid Sunshine Feedback Thread.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 15TH MARCH 2008 ... 1200 GMT

Hi everyone

And thanks Phil for your observations on the ground ... it looks like the calm conditions are set to continue.


General Situation

The Atlantic High is back to normal although a little west of it's normal position.

The pressure gradient is very weak and consequently the trades are much lighter and this is the reason for the calm conditions across most of the Caribbean.

The exception being the south west corner where there is the highest risk of heavy rain.


Tobago this Week

Calmer conditions with weak trades ... occasional local showers but plenty of sunshine.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Hi everyone

It has been an interesting couple of weeks ... in fact this year's 'dry' season has been interesting with cooler temperatures and the frequent reports of very high seas.

Global warming? Well it is certainly true that temperatures are rising in many parts of the world but is it also true that temperatures are falling in other parts of the world ... so perhaps 'climate change' could be a more appropriate term?

It has just occurred to me that I have been doing this almost every week for about 3 years and I have deleted my posts to replace them with a new one every week and I have lost the old ones ... so I am going to leave them for the record ... it just means that you have to scroll down to see the latest update.

So what's happening ...


General Situation

It's all normal with the Atlantic High bringing the seasonally strong trades ... this is part of the explanation why the seas have picked up but other factors such as a Full Moon and high tides bring the huge waves that have been seen of late.

There is plenty of dry air over the Caribbean but there is always a localised risk of rain.


Tobago this Week

Same as most of this season ... strong trades could bring some high seas, plenty of sunshine but always the risk of some showers falling mostly in the early hours of the morning.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

RAIN

Hi everyone

A squall line has formed bringing some heavy outbursts of rain across Tobago, Trinidad and Barbados.

This should only last through the rest of today and tonight.

Enjoy the Liquid Sunshine



Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 5TH APRIL 2008 ... 1600 BST

Hi everyone

The weather is inhumane for springtime in the UK with yet more cold weather bringing snow so those that have timed their holidays to the Caribbean this week have hit the button perfectly.


General Situation

A very strong Atlantic High has been building into the Caribbean and pepped up the trades to the eastern and central areas.

This is bringing heavy seas but the High is now receding so I expect the seas to calm down to some degree from now and throughout the course of next week.


Tobago Next Week

The seas should calm and it should be the usual mixture of sunshine and showers ... humidity may increase this week as the effects of the trades weaken.

Erm ... I don't expect any thunderstorms ... I think we get more in the UK than Tobago.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 12TH APRIL 2008 ... 1100 BST


Hi everyone

As expected the trades have weakened a little as a depression is carving it's way through the Atlantic High.

This is sucking up some south westerly upper-airflows over the south east of the Caribbean and a consequence of this is moisture that will bring rain to these areas over the next few days.

The rest of the Caribbean is relatively calm with the exception of the far north as a trough moves east but this is mostly affecting the US mainland.


Tobago this Week

A bit of a wet start for this weekend with areas of rain moving up from the south west, some of this looks quite heavy on the sat loops.

As the Atlantic High rebuilds during the week the weather should return to normal with the usual mexi of sunshine and showers.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 21ST APRIL 2008 ... 1000 BST

Hi Everyone

The trades have picked up again and moisture increased over the last weekend bringing some heavy showers.


General Situation

The Atlantic High is expected to build westwards over the next few days and this will weaken the trade winds and gradually reduce the moisture over the eastern Caribbean.

The rest of the Caribbean is very quiet but I notice the ITCZ is producing some very active weather just below the equator ... I wonder if this is an indication of how the forthcoming wet season will be like from June this year?


Tobago this Week

The frequency of any showers should reduce over the next few days and the winds should also reduce bringing calmer weather towards the end of the week. Having said that there should still be plenty of sunshine between any showers.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 26TH APRIL 2008 ... 1100 BST


Hi everyone

At the rate we are going in the UK I think summer has been cancelled due to lack of interest !!

Anyway ... there have been some developments on the wet scale in the Caribbean over the last few days.

Low pressure has formed over Columbia and another depression has punched a hole in the Atlantic High and this situation brings the prospect of stronger trade winds and moisture for the eastern Caribbean.

The western half of the Caribbean should be much drier.


Tobago this Week

I expect this weekend brings the risk of increased shower activity with some heavy and possibly thundery as moisture moves north from the depression over the south american mainland.

It is very hit and miss ... Grenada could have a deluge while Tobago stays dry.

There is very little saharan dust in the atmosphere but an area of this looks likely to move across the Caribbean by mid-week and this should reduce the moisture and reduce the showery activity.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 6TH MAY 2008 ... 0930 BST

Hi everyone

Well the weather is warming up in the UK at last and the Tropical Cyclone season has kicked in early around the Far East with Burma taking an unpleasant mauling that has unfortunately cost many thousands of lives.

In the Atlantic the first Tropical Wave has formed and this is the first sign of the forthcoming Hurricane season which officially begins on 1st June.

Relatively strong trades are affecting the Caribbean and there are areas of moisture bringing showers however the worst weather over the last week was confined to the north coast of Columbia where there has been some very heavy rain.


Tobago this week

I was a little wide of the mark with my prediction of heavy showers last week and much of this fell to the north of Tobago.

This week looks similar with showers scattered over a wide area of the eastern Caribbean ... Tobago will catch a few but the main theme will be the sunshine and it will be quite windy.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 10TH MAY 2008 ... 0900 BST

Hi everyone

The first Tropical Wave of the season is trundling along just above the equator and this should arrive in the Caribbean during the middle of the week.

The Atlantic High is pulling a south easterly airflow across the Caribbean and there seems to be plenty of Saharan dust in the atmosphere which should reduce the development of rain clouds to some degree ... but this is not the case across the Central Americas where low pressure is bringing heavy bursts of rain.


Tobago this Week

The ususal trend of sunshine and occasional showers. But watch out for Tuesday and Wednesday when the Tropical Wave could bring an increased risk of rain although it is possible that this Wave could dissipate over the South American mainland.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

RAIN UPDATE ... 13TH MAY 2008 ... 0830 BST

Hi everyone

Just a quickie to say that the rain risk for tonight and tomorrow is increasing as the first Tropical Wave of the season moves into southern Venezuela.

A band of heavy rain is east of Tobago and unless this is dissipated by the Saharan dust the rain should arrive within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 24TH MAY 2008 ... 1730 BST


Hi everyone

Apologies for my absence last week.

Well ... the bank holiday weekend in the UK is gearing up for some pretty ugly stuff with torrential rain setting in tonight and moving north and sticking around until the middle of the week ... so if you are flicking a coin over whether to take up any last minute holidays offers to Tobago ... it's a no-brainer ... just GO !!


General Situation

There are 3 Tropical Waves ... one is in the west Caribbean, one over the east Caribbean ... these 2 are causing little trouble. The third one is in the mid-Atlantic and this one looks more organised and could bring some rain midweek to the Caribbean.

The Atlantic High is still in situ but there is less Saharan dust around and a consequence of this is an increase in moisture and humidity ... AKA ... more showers.


Tobago this Week

Sunshine and showers ... watch out for a little more showers around midweek as the next Tropical Wave moves through.

Whatever happens it will kick the hell out of the UK weather over the next few days !

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

MIDWEEK UPDATE ... 27TH MAY 2008 ... 2350 BST

Hi everyone

A quick update as the whole of the Caribbean is bursting with moisture from several depressions and the arrival of a Tropical Wave from the east.

Heavy rain is affecting most southern areas of the Caribbean as moisture is drawn up from the South American mainland ... to the north are a number of depressions causing rising moisture to drop some pretty heavy rains over the Islands.

The Wave to the east has developed some very potent showers although these have dissipated over the last few hours ... but the Wave is well organised and could generate more rainfall ... there is a moderate risk that Tobago could catch a heavy downpour over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Quite interesting.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 1ST JUNE 2008 ... 1700 BST


Hi everyone

I thought I would post this week's update today because this marks the official start of the 2008 Hurricane Season ... I have started a new thread where updates on Caribbean hurricane activity can be found under '2008 Hurricane Season'.

The 2008 Hurricane season has started ominously with Tropical Storm Arthur bring heavy rains and strong winds to Belize and Mexico ... Arthur formed out of the moisture that formed last week over the central and southern Caribbean that I reported on mid-week.


General situation this Week

There is plenty of moisture around the Caribbean, the Atlantic High is bringing strong trade winds and there are three Tropical Waves ... one over Tobago and the eastern Caribbean, another 2 days behind and the third one has an ETA in the Caribbean for late in the week ... the second wave has the most moisture associated with it.


Tobago this Week

There have been a few showers associated with the current Tropical Wave that is moving through as this update is posted.

The next one is expected to move through through Monday night and Tuesday and this looks most likely to bring heavy rain for a time.

The weather should then settle before prospects of more rain arise later in the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE 7th JUNE 2008 ... 2200 BST

A little bit of rain is expected tonight and tomorrow as a Tropical Wave moves through ... this wave is forming a depression and there could be some gusty winds with the rain as the Wave passes.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 7TH JUNE 2008 ... 0915 BST


Hi everyone

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are affecting Trinidad & Tobago, Grenada and Barbados as the first really organised Tropical Wave moves in. This weather should clear up later today.


General Situation

The standard Atlantic High is bringing fairly strong trades across the Caribbean. There are 3 Tropical Waves ... one to the west Caribbean, one over T & T and another weaker Wave in the Atlantic.

The ITCZ is well to the south on the equator and although this is producing alot of moisture it is too far south to start having an impact on the Caribbean.


Tobago this Week

After a rather soggy weekend the weather should return to the normal routine of sunshine and showers.

There is not much saharan dust in the atmosphere behind the Wave that is passing through so the humidity could get a little higher and the showers could develop more readily from time to time.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WARNING OF HEAVY RAIN ... 12TH JUNE 2008 ... 1800 BST


Hi everyone

The 2nd Tropical Wave in 2 weeks is passing through and some heavy rain has fallen already ... but ...

I am watching an area of particularly heavy and thundery rain approach Tobago from the south east and there is a high risk that this will affect Tobago in the next 3 to 12 hours.

The passge of this area of moisture is a little difficult to predict and there is a small chance that it could move to the east of Tobago ... but it is a developing event and could become more widespread.

So this is just a message of caution that there is the potential for a significant rain event over the course of the next 12 hours that can bring flash flooding particularly in rural and hilly areas of Tobago.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 15TH JUNE 2008 ... 1100 BST

Hi everyone

Last week became quite eventful with the second strong Tropical Wave arriving on Thursday bringing with it a Depression that moved north west along the line of the Wave with heavy rain and thunderstorms that skirted Tobago and moved over the northern Windward Islands.

As quickly as this developed it diminished and is now a small cluster of storms just south of Puerto Rico.


Current Situation

Behind last week's wave is drier air full of saharan dust but depressions over the South American mainland are creating alot of moisture and this occasionally moves north into the far southern Caribbean.

Another Tropical Wave is on the way but this is not as strong as the last one.


Tobago this week

It's looking very clear with plenty of sunshine and there is currently only a small risk of moisture moving north from Venezuela.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE ... 18TH JUNE 2008 ... 0800 BST

RAIN RISK INCREASES


Hi everyone

Plumes of moisture moving off Venezuela have increased the showery activity over Tobago this week beyond what I had expected.

Further heavy rain is expected later this week on Thursday/Friday when another active Tropical Wave passes. This Wave seems to be forming a depression and there is a low risk of development. It is hit and miss as to which Islands will get the brunt of this weather.

It seems to me that any potential for development at this point of the 2008 Hurricane Season, like last year, is just to the east of the southern windward islands and to the extreme west of the Caribbean ... last week's wave died out as soon as it had passed the Windwards but, to be fair, there was alot of Saharan dust and wind shear in the way as the associated depression moved north.

So here's looking at Thursday and I will further updates if anything changes.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 21ST JUNE 2008 ... 1400 BST

Hi everyone

From a weather enthusiast's point of view it has been a fascinating week of weather although I have to sympathise with those who had their Friday washed out, not to mention the showers during the earlier part of the week.

The second really strong Tropical wave passed through yesterday and did exactly the same as the wave the previous week. This is almost a repeat of the trend last year where the conditions around the windward side of the Carribean are better for Storm development ... then as soon as a Wave or Depression moves into the Caribbean Sea it dissipates or becomes substantially weaker.

Yesterday, it was quite amazing to watch how the moisture really flared up over the full length of the Windward Islands as the Tropical Wave passed through.

As the 2008 Hurricane Season progresses I would expect the 'hotspots' to be further north and west but there seems to have been a trend of early season activity in the south and eastern parts of the Caribbean in the last few years.


General Situation

The Wave that has just passed through has left a trail of moisture behind it so the next few days will be a little more showery than normal across the Caribbean, particularly the further south you go.

Another Tropical Wave is on the way and should arrive by Tuesday/Wednesday. This wave is pulling a quite intense plume of Saharan Dust behind it so there is the risk of more heavy rain mid-week followed by an introduction to much drier conditions and hazy sunshine across the Caribbean.

There is some cyclonic turning in the approaching Wave but I cannot see any real Tropical Storm development ... so far so good for the 2008 Hurricane season.


Tobago Next Week

It will be sunshine and showers for the next few days and (dare I stick my neck out!) and say Tuesday and/or Wednesday will bring rain followed by much drier weather for the rest of the week.

We will see ...

Regards