2008 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

INVEST 94 UPDATE ... 16TH JULY 2008 ... 1430 BST

This system has really got it's act together over the last 12 hours and, although the NHC is checking it out later on 'before they can be sure', I think this is already a Tropical Depression judging by the rain bands wrapping around the circulation.

I reckon the centre is a little to the north of Tobago's latitude but Tobago will not avoid some extremely heavy rain, thunderstorms and strong winds for the next 48 hours.

All islands from Trinidad in the south and as far north as Monserrat could all experience a substantial rain event ... and this system could develop further. Young developments such as this are very unpredictable.

The first rains should arrive over Tobago in the next 2 or 3 hours.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

INVEST 94 UPDATE ... 17TH JULY 2008 ... 0030 BST

Investigations by the NHC report that there is no definitive circulation ... judging by the ragged look of this system I am not surprised ... as a consequence they cannot give it Tropical Depression status.

But it is very borderline and I wonder if they should have looked a bit harder ... many Islands report that they have had some heavy downpours but no wind of any significance ... yes, that is because the suspect areas of circulation (of which there are several) are nearer the Tropical Wave that has yet to pass through ... the squalls will come.

Tobago has not had as much rain as I thought ... most of the very heavy bursts are to the north but the Wave is yet to move through and the convective bursts can develop quite suddenly and there is a risk of this for the next 24 hours.

This is a very potent system that simply lacks cohesion ... it can develop very quickly if it gets it's act together ... All the Windward Islands should take caution for the next 24 hours.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TS BERTHA / INVESTS 94 & 95 UPDATES ... 17th JULY 2008 ... 1945 BST


Bertha has become one of the most resilient Storms on record ... she just goes on and on. She is forecast to be north west of the British Isles in 5 days, still with Tropical Storm force winds ... yeah ... another unsettled week in one of the most abysmal summers I have ever experienced in the UK.

Invest 95 ... the issue is mainly of rain and flooding over Nicaragua and I feel that it is pretty academic whether or not this forms into a Tropical Depression before it makes landfall.

Invest 94 ... just keeps breaking down ... a new surge of energy is going through the system again but this relates only to the main convection areas that have already passed Tobago ... the squally winds may have gone through too ... there is more rain in the tail end of this potential development for Tobago ... another soggy night.

I am still quite sure this became a Tropical Depression and lost the plot ... It keeps trying.

Don't forget that the squalls are along the Wave that I think has got through ... there is some more rain to come tonight and maybe tomorrow before it clears up.

Here's to a sunny weekend ...

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TS BERTHA, TS CRISTOBEL, INVEST 94 & INVEST 96 ... 20TH JULY ... 1030 BST

Four systems on the go ...

Bertha reached hurricane status again and is now back down to Tropical Storm. This resilient storm is now one of the longest surviving Tropical Cyclones on record. She will still have Tropical Storm force winds when she reaches Iceland in the next couple of days.

Cristobel formed off the eastern US coast over the weekend and is bringing rains and strong winds to this area as she moves north east, parallel to the coast.

Invest 96 is a small depression that has just formed south of Bermuda ... this is a lowish risk and early days.

Invest 94 ... that has passed Tobago and the Dutch Antilles has brought strong winds and heavy rains and is now affecting Jamaica and moving towards the Gulf. This system has been on the verge of Tropical Depression status for the last several days but has never seemed to get it's act together. It will still pose a threat and the NHC is still monitoring this very closely.

Activity in the Tropical Atlantic has calmed down for now so there should be some better and more settled weather over the eastern Caribbean for most of this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TS DOLLY ... 20th JULY 2008 ... 2200 BST

At last ... Invest 94 is a Tropical Storm ... the NHC have gone straight for that and bypassed Tropical Depression status !!

Lets face it ... this has been at least a Tropical Depression for days judging by the numerous reports of the squally winds associated with Dolly ... they just could not find a circulation and thats why a potentially dangerous storm has been allowed to cross half the Caribbean almost unnoticed.

I have said this in previous years of Hurricane Posts ... developing systems are the most dangerous (particularly when they enter accomodating environments like the Caribbean) and you don't just do a fly past ... they need monitoring more closely to avoid potential devastation of the likes of what Hurricane Ivan brought to Grenada (and very nearly Tobago) ... experience of these developments help them track the threat to places like the US and this is why many small Caribbean Islands are at risk every year.

It does not take a rocket scientist to look at the sat loops and see something developing without having to drop a dongle out of a plane to take readings.

The NHC need to loosen their criteria for identifying these Storms and err more on the side of caution with whole (little island) countries at stake.

Makes your blood boil !!

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HERE COMES ANOTHER ONE ... 21ST JULY 2008 ... 1300 BST

Bertha is gone and we now have TS Cristobel lashing the east coast of the US and TS Dolly who is over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

Dolly is still struggling to maintain consistency but once she is over the mainland and in the Gulf I expect she will develop quite quickly ... possibly to a Hurricane after a couple more days.

The next potential spinner is still inland over western Africa and this looks particularly vigorous. Obviously to early to say if it is a threat to land in the US or Caribbean at this stage but I am confident enough to expect some development as soon as this disturbed area of weather moves off the African Coast and into the warm Tropical Atlantic.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

2008 HURRICANE SEASON SO FAR ...

There has been some considerable energy in the Tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea at such an early stage in the Hurricane season.

There are 10 days left in July and twice we have had 4 systems of Tropical Storm intensity or higher at one time ... very rare for this time of year ... erm ... no, it's the first time I think this has happened.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) are above average just as they were in the notorious 2005 Season which is the last time that so much energy was produced ... the previous year before this was 1933 and this is an indication that 2008 has the potential to be a very active season with several major Hurricane events.

We have also had one of the longest lasting Cyclones on record in July ... Bertha ... who lasted nearly 18 days at at time against hostile conditions for Cyclone development.

Bad omens ... I hope the Caribbean and the US is ready ... looks like being busy, particularly as we go through August, September and October.

Right now ... the southern parts of Texas should be getting ready for Dolly before we start to focus on the next one that is leaving the African Coast now.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TS DOLLY, TS CRISTOBEL & THE BLOB FROM AFRICA ... 22ND JULY 2008 ... 1745 BST


TS Dolly is just short of Hurricane strength as she moves towards the extreme south of Texas, bordering Mexico. Although she is gathering strength from warm SST's she is not expected to be a major Hurricane on landfall unless her speed slows dramatically and she dithers for an extra day or 2 in the Gulf.

TS Cristobel is producing no surprises as she moves up the eastern US coast.

The 'blob' just coming off the African coast has considerable potential ... there is already a circulation ... the only snag being that the circulation has formed further north and will move right over the Cape Verde Islands ... this brings 2 good newses ... firstly the SST's are cooler so that could stiffle development (for a while) ... secondly, the latitude of this 'blob' is well north and therefore the prospects of a Caribbean or US landfall are very unlikely at this stage.

Good chance of development when it moves over warmer SST's in a couple of days.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE DOLLY AND THE BLOB FROM AFRICA

Dolly intensified quite rapidly as she approached landfall and her centre has just moved inland over the extreme south of Texas as a Category 2 Hurricane.

She is moving rather slowly and although she will weaken quite quickly there will be very heavy rains, the rains now being the main threat.

The Blob ... now known as Invest 97 has moved west of the Cape Verde Islands ... I can't see much happening here for a couple more days and if there is much development I don't think this is a landfall threat anywhere.

There are a few resilient storms building up along the ITCZ to the east of Tobago ... so some rain could be on it's way in a couple of days.

There is still plenty of energy around the Tropical Atlantic.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

THE BLOB FROM AFRICA

AKA: Invest 97.

No worries here so I won't do anymore updates unless something develops.

It has quietened down but I expect more energy from Africa in the next few days as there is some very disturbed weather over the African mainland that could set off more Tropical Waves later this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

SMALL RISK EMERGES ... 29TH JULY 2008 ... 1630 BST

A new Tropical Wave has emerged off the African Coast and with it is a small depression. This is much further south than the last 'blob' and over warmer waters.

This represents a very small risk and will be duly watched over the next few days.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

INVEST 98L ... 30th JULY 2008 ... 1430 BST

Heavy rain is affecting Tobago thanks to a combination of the nearby ITCZ and a Tropical Wave that is just about to move into the Caribbean.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic, Invest 98L is developing nicely ... I have had a close look at this and I am sure there is an eye developing or, at least, a centre. This looks like developing into a Tropical Depression or Storm as it affects the Cape Verde Islands but there is a lot of dry Saharan Dusty Weather ahead so I am not sure if there is much chance of any further development.

In any case ... from this latitude, this system is unlikely to affect the Caribbean and could spend it's whole life over the Atlantic Ocean.

I will keep watching.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

INVEST 99 ?? ... 1st AUGUST 2008 ... 1800 BST

Hmm ... I was reporting on Invest 98 ... the NHC lost interest in it and then invent Invest 99 ... I am sure it is the same development that affected the Cape Verde Islands earlier this week.

Anyway ... there is a very low threat to the whole of the Caribbean from this and, as I said before, this will probably stay in the Atlantic.

Regards

[Margaret. M]

Hi Paul,

We are travelling to Tobago on Thursday 7th Aug and have been watching the weather developments. Do we have anything to worry about? Partners going into panic mode thinking that all the fishing gear he has bought to pack in his case, replacing the usual holiday requirement of clothes etc might not get to see the light of day! Don't think he will look good wearing a fishing rod & tackle...lol Can you advise please?

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Margaret

As far as Tropical Storms are concerned there is a very low risk of this for the next seven days. The only potential development is Invest 99 that is a long distance away to the north east of Tobago and this looks unlikely, even if it develops, to make landfall anywhere in the Caribbean. It definitely will not affect Tobago.

Any further developments from Africa have not materialised and any that do take about a week to reach the Caribbean ... so keep watching this post.

Also bear in mind that Tobago has not had a direct hit from a Hurricane for over 40 years and the few close shaves in the last 4 years have come and gone quite quickly ... the risks are very low.

As far as the general weather is concerned, it has become wetter over the last week due to the proximity of the ITCZ, this is the Tropical Convergence Zone which brings unpredictable weather and a higher risk of rain. The passage of Tropical Waves at this time of year can combine with the ITCZ to bring longer spells of rain.

If you get a longer spell of rain it rarely lasts more than a day so there should be plenty of fishing opportunities for your Partner.

Enjoy your fishing ...

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

INVEST'S 99,90 & 91 ... 3rd AUGUST 2008 ... 0830 BST

Just as I thought we were having a lull, the NHC labels 2 more areas of potential development.

Invest 91 is in the Gulf just west of Florida. This is expected to move to the west or south west and become a Tropical Depression ... this could threaten the areas (Texas and Mexico) where Dolly struck last week.

Invest 90 has formed along the second Tropical Wave in the mid-Atlantic ... this one looks less likely to develop but it could do as it approaches the Caribbean around Wednesday or Thursday this week ... it's on a steady westward track on latitude 10 so it needs watching.

Invest 99 is moving north west ... it is struggling to develop and is unlikely to affect the Caribbean.

All very unpredictable ... but Invest 90 is the one to watch.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TS Edouardo and The Lull

Invest 91 has reached Tropical Storm status ... moving west towards Texas with a small chance of reaching Hurricane status on landfall ... somewhwere near Houston.

The Lull ... it was a lull untill I was distracted by some alerts from the NHC about 2 areas of potential development in the Atlantic that came to nothing.

The situation is as follows:-

There is a Tropical Wave now moving across the eastern Caribbean ... this is bringing heavy rain and winds to Trinidad & Tobago ... who knows, it could develop into something after it moves a little further on.

There is nothing else ... I have read all the opinions and looked at the satloops myself ... nothing in the Atlantic apart from 2 more Tropical Waves ... yes there could be development but these systems are struggling right now.

But there is some new energy in Africa so I expect something to come off the coast in the next few days.

Will keep all informed.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TS Edouardo ... and Nothing Else ... 5th August 2008 ... 1915 BST

Edouardo has made landfall in Texas as a strong Tropical Storm ... hopefully not too much damage.

It is still raining over Tobago and nearby Islands thanks to a Tropical Wave ... this should ease off over the next 12 hours.

2 more Waves are on the way ... the first is dragging significant Saharan Dust behind it and this should bring a drier period from Thursday onwards and through to the latter half of the weekend before a more vigorous Wave (with a small circulation) introduces some more moisture ... watching this.

The ITCZ has sunk to the south so that is one complication out of the way for a while.

Still some energy in Africa ... waiting to see what happens ... looks a long way off.

Regards

[Meg]

Hi paul,

I am travelling to Tobago at the end of august, will we have any problems then regarding hurricaines/rainfall?

Regards,

Megan

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Meg

It is always difficult to predict more than a week away.

Tobago is lower risk for Hurricanes but there can be more rainfall at this time of year when Tropical Waves pass through ... sometimes it is no different to the dry season.

Keep watching this thread ... I am always monitoring the Tropical Atlantic which is where the next week's weather comes from and I will be putting my updates here and in the Liquid Sunshine weekly updates.

Regards