2009 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

20th May 2009 ... 1045 BST


Here we go again ...

The season officially starts on the 1st June but, in view of the rather early activity this week, it seems that the season is off to an early start.

We currently have a Tropical Disturbance close to the Bahamas bring heavy rains and strong winds around Puerto Rico, the Dominican and Haiti ... this was being monitored earlier this week but it does not look like any further development is likely.

The first Tropical Wave of the season is also approaching the east coast of South America. Although a weak affair, it could set off some heavy showers as it moves into the moist air over the south and east Caribbean. I am observing several lines of showers ahead of this Wave so Tobago can expect a good share some of this over the next 2 days and there is the possibility of squally conditions within these showers.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

DISTURBANCE ... 6TH JUNE 2009 ... 1215 BST

I am watching a disturbance off the coast of Nicaragua.

This is not threat to Tobago but I am expecting this to develop as it moves north off the Mexican coast and possibly become a major rainfall threat to Jamaica, Cuba and (hopefully not) Haiti towards the end of this week.

I will post updates if I see any changes.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

DISTURBANCE UPDATE ... 7TH JUNE 2009 ... 1130 BST

The disturbance in the west Caribbean is already producing large areas of rainfall. The National Hurricane Centre has issued a warning of a 30% risk of a tropical Cyclone developing in the next 48 hours.

At the very least ... I expect this will be a heavy rain event.

Meanwhile ... back in Tobago ... a Tropical Wave is about to pass by and, behind it, is a large swathe of moisture so Tobago can expect plenty of the wet stuff for the next few days.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

DISTURBANCE UPDATE ... 8TH JUNE 2009 ... 1830 BST

Wow ... this system really got it's act together this morning and then got pulverised by wind shear ... now looking very scattered and messy ... looks like the opportunity has been missed.

Still a heavy rain threat to Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

DISTURBANCE UPDATE ... 10TH JUNE 2009 ... 1700 BST


The previous disturbance has melted away and it's remnants are dropping rain over Jamaica and Cuba.

The western Caribbean is still the area to watch as a tropical Wave in that area has generated another disturbance moving off the northern coast of Columbia.

Another Wave is approaching Tobago from the east but the weather is fine in Tobago for now.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

NEW DISTURBANCE ... 10TH AUGUST 2009 ... 0830 BST


A potential spinner has moved off the west coast of Africa and is currently affecting the Cape Verde Islands.

This already looks like a Tropical Depression but once the formalities have been completed by the NHC I am confident this will become the first Tropical Depression of the season in the Atlantic.

How strong this gets and where it goes depends on how quickly this will strengthen ... rapid strengthening is likely to lead to a spin to the north to the extent that no Islands in the Caribbean would be affected ... at the other end of this spectrum is very slow development that would keep this on track for the Caribbean ... the slower then the further south this is likely to track.

Early days ... watch this space ... all interests in the Caribbean, including Tobago, should keep an eye on this system in it's early stages.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE ... 11TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1130 BST

Yesterday's disturbance has now been officially upgraded to a Tropical Depression by the NHC.

As usual, there is considerable uncertainty about the forecast track as this TD tracks just to the south of west at 14 degrees latitude.

Tobago is around 10 - 11 degrees latitude and the likelihood of this Depression coming this far south are very unlikely ... but possible ... and if it does it will be likely more stronger because a track to the north takes it through some unfavourable dry air and cooler sea temperatures, which can weaken a storm.

As far as I can see ... this system only poses a threat if it stays south.

I will keep watching but as soon as (or if) I see a turn to the north then the threat will be over.

For now ... this is a very small threat.

Meanwhile the bad weather that Tobago was fortunate to avoid has caused quite a stir over Barbados and other Islands to the north and there are minimal risks of this developing as it moves across the warm Caribbean Sea.

Tobago, meanwhile, enjoys fair weather.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE ... 13TH AUGUST 2009 ... 0930 BST

Tropical Depression #2 is sporadically strengthening and weakening and making little in the way of northerly progress. So this one is now even more unpredicatable than it was in the first place. Any strengthening will eventually take the depression north away from the Caribbean. if it stays as it is or weakens then it will still represent a strong rain threat to the Caribbean later this weekend ... this still needs watching.

Another development has occurred off the African coast ... early days ... but the NHC are already issuing advisories about it ... watch this space for updates.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE ... 13TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1800 BST


TD #2 is collapsing ... this is good and bad news.

The collapse would mean that the remnants are going to take a more southerly track and there is no way of saying that redevelopment could not occur over more suitable waters ... this would bring a rain event possibly for Tobago and nearby areas of the Caribbean by the end of the weekend.

Development would take the storm north and it would probably not bother anyone.

The collapse has other consequences ... there is another depression just behind and a little further to the south ... if TD#2 developed then it is often hard for a second storm to develop in the wake which often leaves cooler seas behind.

So ... I think we have 2 problems ... TD#2 has the potential to bring heavy rains to the Caribbean in the next 4/5 days and then the follow-up potential could be a real problem for the Caribbean next week ... still early days.

It's quite interesting ... I think I can feel my pulse for a change.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TROPICAL STORM ANA ... AND BILL? ... 15TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1145 BST

TD#2 fell apart and has now got itself going again, developing into TS Ana. The storm is now moving in a more northerly direction but is expected to affect the northern Windwards Islands from around Martinique northwards towards the end of the weekend and early next week. Preparations need to be in place.

Just behind and further to the south I am expecting Bill to be named ... this one looks a little more vigorous and presents a higher risk to Tobago and the southernmost Islands ... for the middle of next week.

Updates will follow ...

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE ... 16TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1000 BST

There are now 4 areas of disturbance as the 2009 Hurricane Season finally gets it act together.

A new disturbance off the west coast of Florida and a new Wave off the African coast now need watching.

In between are TS Ana and Bill both following a very similar track towards the northern Windwards ... the risks for the southern Windwards now appear to be decreasing but I would still advise caution as the effects of Hurricanes can cover larges areas.

Ana does not look too bad and is very small so the worst weather should affect a small swathe. Bill is a potential problem and is expected to be a moderate Hurricane by the time he reaches the Caribbean ... it's looking like a tough week for the northern Caribbean this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE ... 16TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1715 BST

It's amazing how things change so quickly with Hurricanes and Tropical Storms ... this is why they are so unpredictable.

TS Ana is moving at speed and, although the track looks like she will affect many countries, her speed should carry her through quickly. The other plus is that there is a very small area of rain. Hopefully Ana will not be too much of a problem ... she has an appointment with the Northern Windwards tonight and tomorrow ... then Puerto Rico, Dominican, Haiti and Cuba ... these should weaken her.

Bill is a worry but his track is shifting north and he could cross Ana's wake and miss everything although Bermuda and possibly Florida may need to watch this. Bill is shaping up to be a very powerful hurricane so lets hope the track stays the same.

It could all change though. Tobago looks safe with a good margin of comfort.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE ... 17TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1100 BST

Although Ana is affecting the northern Caribbean she is probably not even strong enough to be a depression and there is a very low risk she could develop again if she spends some time over the warm sea. Nevertheless, Ana still presents a rain risk and there will be localised squalls although her rapid speed indicates that any bad weather events will be shortlived for those unlucky enough to experience them.

TS Claudette came and went in no time so luckily not much trouble here.

Hurricane Bill is strengthening into a major Hurricane but is expected to miss the Caribbean. There may be some fall out from Bill in the form of outer rain bands and heavy seas along the length of the Windward Islands towards the middle and end of this week.

Bermuda will be monitoring Bill's progress.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE BILL UPDATE ... 18TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1800 BST

Bill is wobbling about as he goes through a eyewall replacement cycle. This will temporarily weaken him but he will be back to life shortly.

He is quite a large Hurricane and I have been worrying a little about his track that seemed to continue west and threaten the Northern Windwards but the forecasted swing to the north west appears to have started according to the Sat Loops I have been watching and this has slowed my pulse to some extent.

Due to his size, I expect that Bill's outer rain bands will bring rain to many of the Windward Islands, possibly as far south as Tobago, over the next 3 / 4 days ... but thankfully most will escape any significant wind speeds.

But watch out for large waves ... apparently a wave of 55 feet was recorded by a buoy near Bill's centre ... this will send some pretty big swells away from Bill in all directions and the consequential beach erosion issues will be discussed again ... a surfer's paradise for the next week though! ... 15 feet waves are forecast on many 'Bill facing' beaches.

Bermuda is watching this one for the weekend and keeping fingers, arms and legs crossed.

I remain fixated.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE BILL UPDATE ... 18TH AUGUST 2009 ... 2245 BST


Bill is a real cutie ... he seems to be finishing his eyewall replacement cycle ... shifted north (as trepidiciously forecast by the experts), is filling up and looks like a very good specimen of a Hurricane.

So ... these are moments to enjoy ... whilst there is no immediate threat to any community it is just lovely to behold one of these beautiful and dastardly beasts that all the rocket scientists are still trying to suss out ... lovely ... a treat to watch on the Sat Loops.

But lets hope it doesn't go sour ... Bermuda has potential issues with Bill ... so I hope Bill is kind and then we can have good old Bill back another year.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE BILL UPDATE ... 20TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1515 BST

The forecasting of Hurricane Bill has been spot on for a change and it seems that the continual improvements to the Forecasting models have taken a significant step forward since last year if the forecasting of Bill is anything to go by. Ironically the UKMet that, in previous years, used to be so accurate was the only one that predicted Bill would stay south and attack the Caribbean ... wrong!

Anyway ... Bill has peaked at Category 4 strength and is now slightly weaker as he moves north west ... some restrengthening is forecast.

Bermuda still not out of the woods yet but the risks are increasingly slightly for the east coast of the US. If he stays at sea I would have a small bet that Bill could move back across the northern Atlantic as a large depression to introduce an early autumn to northern Europe.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE BILL UPDATE ... 20TH AUGUST 2009 ... 2130 BST

It looks like Bill will miss Bermuda although there will be high winds and heavy seas affecting Bermuda for a time. The same applies in terms of high seas for the eastern US and then there is a risk of Hurricane force winds affecting Nova Scotia.

Then there is the sting in the tail ... as with most Hurricanes, they always seem to leave a trail of heavy showers in their wake and this is giving Tobago alot of heavy rain right now from the Tropical Wave from which Hurricane Bill formed.

Looking ahead ... there are no other signs of Storm activity developing in the tropical Atlantic so hopefully next week will be quiet.

I am now going to switch my attention to the north Atlantic ... I sense that Bill or his remnants will be saying hello to the northern UK on Wednesday or Thursday next week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE BILL UPDATE ... 21ST AUGUST 2009 ... 2015 BST

Fall out from Bill is now affecting the south east Caribbean as the Tropical Wave that spawned Bill pushes some heavy rainfall across the area ... it looks like a wet weekend in this area and Tobago is included.

Meanwhile, Bill is speeding up and moving swiftly between the east coast of the US and Bermuda. Rainfall and heavy seas seem to be the worst things to expect although Bermuda should get some strong winds for a time.

I am now looking at this from the perspective of the UK as it seems increasingly like Bill could manifest himself as a very strong depression across the northern half of the UK next Wednesday ... the track could be to the north or south ... south could be quite serious for the UK at this time of year while the leaves are still on the trees ... a bit early for an autumnal storm ...

... we will see.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE ... 24TH AUGUST 2009 ... 2200 BST

Bill is no longer a hurricane and he is being swept up into the North Atlantic jetstream ... I look forward to welcoming him in the UK on Wednesday as a strong depression bringing plenty of rain and strong winds.

The next Tropical Wave is moving into the eastern Caribbean ... it's quite an active one with most of the activity to the north east Caribbean with some models predicting development over the Bahamas in the next day or 2.

Tobago is blessed ... very nice weather ... but it is very unpredictable.

More business is expected to manifest itself off the African coast by the weekend.

3 more months of the 2009 Hurricane season to go ...

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TROPICAL STORM DANNY ... 26TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1745 BST


TS Danny has just formed east of the Bahamas and is expected to graze the eastern coast of the US over the next few days.

Danny is not expected to be a major Hurricane ... I will post updates.

Weather is good in Tobago as the bad stuff seems to be staying north.

Regards