2009 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

NEW DEVELOPMENT ... 28TH AUGUST 2009 ... 0730 BST

It's not that new but I have been watching this for the last 48 hours with a degree of concern and uncertainty.

The next 48 hours look crucial in terms of where this one will go. The NHC have labelled this 'Invest 94' and are raising the risks that it will become a Tropical Depression.

Well to the south west of the Cape Verde Islands, this is on a low latitude and moving west ... I cannot yet see a turn to the north and, if there is one, we probably won't know for a day or 2.

Invest 94 is also moving quite slowly and with, the warm seas at this low latitude and good conditions, we could be looking at Hurricane Erika in a few days.

Based on it's current track and strong high pressure to the north this looks like it will stay on a westward motion and puts Tobago and the southern Caribbean at risk.

I will post updates.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

INVEST 94 UPDATE ... 28TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1930 BST

There does appear to be a weakness in the high pressure north of this developing development ... so there is a window of opportunity for Invest 94 to spin north.

I feel that the weakness will be shortlived and Invest 94 could in fact go north and then come south ... it's early days ... if it does go north it will move into a less friendly environment for development.

The unpredictability of hurricanes that are yet to be fully understood makes me feel that this system could be drawn towards the energy that it needs rather than the predictable course of spinning north ... remember Ivan? 2004.

Until this system does what the prediction models say it will do, Tobago and the rest of the Windwards should keep a learing eye on this one.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

INVEST 94 UPDATE ... 30TH AUGUST 2009 ... 0945 BST


Invest 94 has become very ragged but now it appears to be getting it's act together with the development of thunderstorms and vague signs of a circulation.

There has been the slightest turn of the main area of thunderstorms towards a more north west direction but the ridge to the north is very strong so I cannot, as yet, see a route that would take this system around the north of the Windward Islands.

If development occurs quickly there is a chance this will go north but the more this system struggles then the more likely it is going to stay on a more southerly track, embedded within it's tropical wave ... this latter possibility offers potentially dangerous consequences for the Caribbean because these systems often tend to explode into life (with little warning) as soon as they get a sniff of the warmer Caribbean Sea.

Invest 94 is only 1,000 miles east of Tobago and this is a relatively short distance to start switching the track to avoid all of the Islands.

As a precaution I would recommend everyone living in the Windwards from Tobago northwards prepare for some bad weather from late Monday and into Tuesday.

It is still too early to tell what this system is going to do ... so be prepared.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

INVEST 94 UPDATE ... 30TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1145 BST

Invest 94 has now started to really get it's act together with some very big bursts of convection and I note that the NHC has started issuing advisories for the Lesser Antilles to monitor the progress of this system.

It seems to me that the main cluster of thunderstorms have moved south while the overall system is tracking west ... this indicates that a more northerly direction is not good for development ... this is not suggesting it won't go north.

We have to wait and see where the centre forms and this is likely to be in the area of the most violent thunderstorms and will stay on course for the west if it is to have much more chance of development.

The risks are now increasing for Tobago and the Islands northwards although I am 50% confident that the centre (worst area) of this will be to the north of Barbados ... but I still advise precaution to be on the safe side.

I will update in another few hours.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

INVEST 94 ... UPDATE & WARNING ... 30TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1430 BST


I have noticed that not many people have been reading this forum today so I am not sure where to shout.

The NHC has raised the risks on this system that is starting another strong burst of convection well to the south at around 7 degrees latitude ... the NHC will not upgrade this to a Tropical Depression until they see a closed circulation but it looks like it could form between 8 and 11 degrees latitude between the southern burst of convection and the more northern and weakening burst of convection.

This is now looking very dangerous because this system has about 24 - 48 hours before it starts affecting the Caribbean Islands depending on it's speed ... the sea waters are exceptionally warm at such a low latitude and any development could be explosive and catch everyone unaware.

Ahead of this system are some ITCZ related thunderstorms which will hopefully serve a little warning ... these showers could be affecting Tobago tonight or early tomorrow morning.

I strongly advise everyone from as far south as Trinidad & Tobago and as far north as Antigua to be on alert and in a state of readiness by tomorrow and prepared for anything anywhere across this area on Tuesday.

I will keep updating every few hours

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

INVEST 94 UPDATE ... 30TH AUGUST 2009 ... 2015 BST


I can see a vague circulation around 11 degrees but it's not a closed circulation so the NHC will not upgrade this to a Tropical Depression yet.

Invest 94 is still developing and not making much of a northward track ... if anything it seems to be going more south although I have noticed the showers ahead of the system getting sheared north so there seems to be a weakness in the high pressure ridge just east of Tobago and Barbados ... is this enough to take this system north?

Update tomorrow unless I see any significant changes tonight.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

INVEST 94 ... UPDATE ... 31ST AUGUST 2009 ... 1115 BST


The answer is yes and no.

Invest 94 has developed a very large circulation of narrow rainbands covering a wide area and has therefore expanded to the north and south so it seems likely that most of the Windward Islands will have some rain from this.

The good news (overnight) is that the centre seems to have jogged back to the north in search of energy ... it could come back south ... who knows, because it has been bobbing all over the place within the overall circulation for 3 days.

So the risks for Tobago are decreasing for now although this is still a very dangerous system for the whole of the Caribbean until there is more certainty about it's future track.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

INVEST 94 UPDATE ... 31ST AUGUST 2009 ... 1615 BST

This could already be a tropical depression as a very well defined circulation has developed at 15 degrees latitude about 500 miles east of the Windwards.

This could be good news for the Islands from St Lucia southwards ... there are wobbles to the north and then back to the west but it looks to me as if the northern half of the Windwards are now at most risk ... but all Islands should stay on their guard because these young systems are very unpredictable.

Due the wobbles to the north it maybe Wednesday before the business section of this system reaches any Islands.

Outer rainbands ahead of the system have brought showers to many Islands ... Trinidad has had quite a deluge today.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TS ERIKA ... 1ST SEPTEMBER 2009 ... 2245 BST

At long last ... it's official ... drum rolls, unbearable tension, climactic anticipation ... it's Tropical Storm Erika !!!

I am very annoyed with Erika ... she is the definitive example of an unpredictable Tropical Storm and I hope all can pay heed to this.

Erika was barrelling towards the Caribbean and came within 500 miles of the Windwards and stopped as if she were being restrained by a leash ... switched directly north and is now engaging less pleasant circumstances in which to develop.

It could have been different and this emphasises the danger and unpredictabilty of these developing waves as they approach the Caribbean.

Anyway ... it's September and this is supposedly the height of any Hurricane season (I thought it was October!) ... if so then it is appropriate to see another 4 strong Tropical Waves over Africa of which one has already entered the Atlantic Ocean with recognition from the NHC about potential development.

It's back to sleep management for me for a while ... sorry if I sound a bit anal

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TS ERIKA ... ALERT ... 2ND SEPTEMBER 2009 ... 0830 BST

Re; last post ... Erika is baffling and extremely dangerous.

She continues to produce big bursts of convection and is seemingly being drawn to the best sources of energy.

Having moved sharply north, since last night she has switched south and west and the western edge of Erika is about 100 east of the Windwards Islands. Even the Cirrus outflow from the top of Erika is reaching Tobago.

It's a lottery as to where Erika will move next ... the forecasting models rarely get it right during the early development of these Storms and she is likely to strengthen too.

The whole of the Windward Islands should be on alert and watch for further developments ... this is a very dangerous and unpredictable Storm.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WARNING ... TS ERIKA ... 2ND SEPTEMBER 2009 ... 1300 BST


Everyone has gone silent and the NHC is going on about multiple centres within Erika ... no, sorry, Erika is now moving south and, as sure as I have a hole in my bum, the sat loops are showing the southward movement of the whole mass of Erika very clearly.

Warnings have been issued for most of the Windwards north of St Lucia but this is not enough ... Barbados is already under the canopy of the Storm and is bound to be experiencing very heavy rain and thunderstorms and likely strong winds.

The outer edges of the rain bands have reached many of the northern Windward Islands as Erika's mass expands.

Grenada, Barbados and Tobago should now be on alert ... this is an extremely dangerous situation with a very large Tropical Storm that seems to have it's own agenda and will affect a wide area with heavy rains and strong winds.

Tobago needs to keep all fingers arms and legs crossed and hope Erika switches back north.

This storm could do anything and the whole Caribbean should be on alert.

I will post updates

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TS ERIKA HAVING ANOTHER ONE OF HER TURNS ... UPDATE ... 2ND SEPTEMBER 2009 ... 1800 BST


Wow ... a big convective burst to the north west would appear to put Erika back on the anticipated track as the bulge to the south reduces and Barbados (having been pelted with heavy rain all day) could start to see an improvement in conditions ... then again, maybe not.

The NHC are speculating on a wide range of theories such as complete dissipation or development into a Hurricane, not to mention the track as Erika has bounced around more manically than a randy male Manicoo attempting to attract a new lover.

So ... nobody knows what is going to happen.

No knowledge = no power ... this translates into extreme danger.

If we get our heads out of the box ... this storm has been behaving so badly simply because it is hungry for energy and the centre is relocating all over the place as thunderstorm activity develops in one quadrant of the large cell or another.

As soon as the energy is consumed then another set of thunderheads develop somewhere else and the centre tries to relocate and establish itself under the action ... this process has been happening with Erika for the last 48 hours ... when a model is developed to take account of the energy factors rather than just the upper airflows then we may be able to predict the behaviour of Storms like Erika ... but for now, we only have Rocket Scientists at the top of the pile of clever dudes and they are no good at predicting Hurricanes.

And I have run out of ideas too.

So it's anyone's guess ... it seems now that Erika is going north west but don't count on it ... nobody is safe ... I hope all in the Caribbean stay on alert ... and safe.



Regards

[Paul Tallet]

ERIKA TURNING SOUTH AGAIN !! ... 2ND SEPTEMBER 2009 ... 1930 BST

I have decided that if I ever have another child and that the child is a daughter ... I will call her Erika ... if I have a son, then he will have problems ... then again, I may just go buy a hamster ... I think that would be easier

I think Erika is going to go down as a thesis for Meteorological Students for the foreseeable future.

She is now moving south west and is starting to impact all of the Windward Islands from Barbados northwards.

No further comment on the future track of this diabolical thing ... just please all be on alert and stay safe in the Caribbean ... I am sure there are more surprises to come.

Regards

[Andy K]

Erika may be a crazy chick, but she presents us here in Trinidad once again with some days of
beautiful sunshine, as she is sucking up all the clouds around her on her way through the island chain.
It is such a pity though that i have to watch all that sunshine through the windows of my office, instead of
going fishing

[Brian Taylor]

sunny maybe, but QUITE windy I might add. feels nice but we hope that there is not more to come for T6T...tell erika to go straight north from here on out, will ya, paul...?!

[Paul Tallet]

ERIKA STILL MOVING SOUTH WEST ... UPDATE ... 3RD SEPTEMBER 2009 0000 BST

This is sheer utter madness.

The NHC are all over the place ... I am all over the place although I want to go to my screaming bed and have nightmares instead.

Erika is now impacting most of the northern Windward Islands. According to the specialists she is weakening.

No she isn't ... she is trying to get organised which is why she is bobbing about like that irritating dot that you try to play tennis with on those equally irritating 1970's IBM Computer Consoles.

Erika is a potentially explosive and extremely dangerous Tropical Storm ... I agree that she could dissipate but it is wrong to assume that when she could just as easily turn into a very nasty Hurricane in a very short space of time.

Everyone must be on alert across the whole Caribbean until we are sure.

Erika's behaviour over the last 2/3 days should be fair warning ... very unpredictable and dangerous.

I am off to bed but not sure what I will wake up to in the morning ... please everyone in the Caribbean ... take care ... this is a very dangerous and unpredictable Storm.

Regards

[Brian Taylor]

sunhine raggae and the clearest reef around here...not a drop of rain and the wind died down in the night....hope the best for all the others in erikas path...she is a strange lady!

[Paul Tallet]

Yep ... she sure is a strange lady.

The risk is diminishing for Tobago ... Grenada got a little taste earlier today and Barbados has rain on and off.

I think Erika is running out of energy options and the forecasters seem be agree more on the weakening prospects for this storm ... although she will still dump plenty of rain.

I won't forget Erika ... she was a very very naughty girl.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

GOOD RIDANCE ERIKA ... 4TH SEPTEMBER 2009 0015 BST


Goodbye you naughty girl ... weakening ...

... this gives me some rest before focus on the next batch of Waves coming from Africa ... plenty of them.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TS FRED ... 8TH SEPTEMBER 2009 ... 0800 BST

Tropical Storm Fred has just formed south of the Cape Verde Islands.

It is very unlikely at this stage that Fred will pose a threat to the Caribbean.

Regards