LIQUID SUNSHINE

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 11TH APRIL 2010 ... 2015 BST

There has been some rain around over the last week ... continuous plumes of moisture have moved north off the South American mainland ... in these situations Tobago could have had a whole week of constant rain but the rain has been very random and, it seems, Tobago has had less of it than other places.

A look at the satloops right now shows a heavy band of showers moving eastwards to the north of Tobago ... it's very hit and miss ... but these very heavy showers will miss Tobago.

The forthcoming week is the same ... there is still moisture in the upper atmosphere and this is undercut by strong trade winds ...

... this means there is a high risk of rain but the rain is very localised and it is impossible for me to predict exactly where it will fall.

Enjoy the sun but remember that rainfall is not far away.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE AND VOLCANO COMMENTS ... 18TH APRIL 2010 ... 0930 BST

Well, the rain of significance finally arrived last week and was probably a shock to the system after such a long dry period.

It is still quite showery with strong trade winds and the rainfall of last week seems to have marked the change from the dry weather to a position of normality. But as always there will be plenty of sunshine too this week.


Iceland Volcano

This volcanic event is beginning to cause disruption on an almost global scale as air travel is grounded across most of Europe and this may possibly extend to other areas.

It is not just those going on holiday that are affected but this is beginning to impact on the imports and exports of goods, particularly foods, and the economic problems that can follow could be very significant.

The eruption and the volcanic ash is not yet significant enough to cause catastrophic problems but it soon will if it carries on ... the other problem is that if the direction of the ash should change then other airspaces could be affected and this could go on and on ... the final factor is the length of the eruption; if this volcano keeps pumping this ash into the atmosphere at this rate for months and years, regardless of the direction it follows, this will bring implications for the weather with possible changes to temperature and the possibility of severe weather events globally.

It's looking ominous.

Holiday disruptions should be regarded as the least of our problems.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 25TH APRIL 2010 ... 1030 BST


Not much change to the weather for this week ... after some rain over the last couple of days, conditions are currently very fair.

This week should continue like this but there is always the risk of some moisture moving off the South American mainland and this can bring some cloudiness or rain for a while. Plenty of sunshine though.

The Icelandic Volcanic disruptions have lifted and the ash is now going in a westerly direction. The good news is that the ash emissions are decreasing and the eruption is turning more to lava ... but things could change and it needs monitoring.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 2ND MAY 2010 ... 1000 BST

The dry weather seems to have set in again again with very little moisture around the south east Caribbean.

This is due to strong high pressure over the middle of the Caribbean ... high pressure suppresses cloud development.

But the pattern of the previous dry spell has ended and this high pressure is likely to merge with the Atlantic High later this week and this should bring back the 'normal' pattern of sunshine and showers carried on the trades.

I have noted the points made by Simon Partridge ... there was rain around last weekend. The sat loops showed the rain over Trinidad and the southern tip of Tobago appeared to be affected, it won't have fallen everywhere ... it is very hit and miss as I keep saying and all I have to rely on are satellite images, feedback and a little bit of nous when I am based in the UK ... some areas of the south and east Caribbean have had plenty of rain over the last few months and Tobago has had just one reasonably steady period of rain since Christmas.

The current position of this High Pressure is causing problems elsewhere ... strong winds are blowing the oil slick in the northern Caribbean towards the southern US coast.

The Iceland Volcano is still erupting but it's ash is going in a westerly direction and not causing problems in Europe for the time being.

That's it for a week ... I am taking myself off for a week in Spain so I doubt I will have access to anything until next Sunday ... have a good week of weather everyone.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 9TH MAY 2010 ... 1230 BST


Well ... the volcanic ash is back and this is mostly affecting France, Spain and Portugal ... this is OK for flights from other countries to Tobago as they can fly over the ash which is currently at relatively low levels. However, there is a chance that the Ash could cause some temporary disruption in the UK this week.

In the tropical Atlantic, the weather is becoming more active as we move closer to the Hurricane Season that officially starts on 1st June. There are 3 Tropical Waves (2 of which are quite potent) moving across at very low latitudes along the ITCZ which is more or less on the level of the Equator.

A deep depression is also forming on the South American Mainland and this will likely be fed more moisture by the Tropical Waves as they move into Venezuela later this week.

The Caribbean is still generally dry with steady trade winds.

This week looks relatively dry to start with for Tobago and most of the Caribbean. But I am becoming confident that a breakdown to wet weather is on the cards later in the week as the Tropical Waves merge into the South American depression and this area of moisture looks likely to move north.

If this happens I would expect rainfall to be widespread across the southern and central Caribbean but some areas could miss it altogether. The risks of this become high by Tuesday and the risks increase further from then until next weekend ... it is difficult to predict.

Even if little rain falls, expect the humidity to increase.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 16TH MAY 2010 ... 0945 BST


Volcanic Ash is once again threatening disruption to air travel this week in the UK and this could spread to other parts of Europe in the latter half of the week.

Last week in Tobago and the rest of the south, east and central Caribbean, the widespread rainfall that I predicted started building from the South American mainland from late Tuesday and the first significant fall of rain came on Thursday for Tobago.

Today, all but the far west of the Caribbean is affected by scattered showers and longer periods of rain.

This pattern is likely to continue for at least a few more days and possibly for the rest of the week as a procession of Tropical Waves move into South America and push moisture up over the Caribbean.

There will be plenty of sunny interludes but plenty of showers this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 24TH MAY 2010 ... 0030 BST

A late update this week as I have been soaking up the glorious sunshine in the UK ... glorious.

There are reports that the Iceland Volcano's eruption is slowing so this brings some hope that there may be fewer disruptions to air traffic from the UK and Europe.

In the Caribbean we have an early weather disturbance just north of Puerto Rico but this is unlikely to amount to much more than heavy rain and strong winds for the area.

Tobago, last week, had a few days of respite from rain although moisture has continued to move north as a series of Tropical Waves feed the low pressure over the South American mainland.

This trend will continue and marks a rather early start to the 'alleged' wet season that starts on 1st June.

Expect the usual sunshine this week but it will be quite humid with a medium to high risk of rain from time to time, particularly at night.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 29TH MAY 2010 ... 1845 BST


The last week has been very wet in Tobago. It is still raining heavily now and this rain is likely to keep going until Monday or Tuesday.

The cause? It's the one that I have been speaking of for the last 3 weeks ... a procession of Tropical Waves moving into South America and feeding low pressure.

Right now there is a very large plume of moisture pushing up from South America across most of the Caribbean and way out into the Atlantic ... this will continue to be fed by more Tropical Waves, there are 4 more on the way.

An unsettled week ahead.

I will be starting up the Hurricane 2010 string this week ... it's looking like an active season this year and I will expand on this when I open the new string.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

I have just launched the 2010 Hurricane Season posts ... there is nothing happening yet in the Atlantic or Caribbean but I will be reporting on any developments as they arise.

Last week was a nice week for Tobago but it was still disrupted by heavy rain from time to time that moved up from South America due to low pressure receiving boosts of energy from a succession of Tropical Waves.

This weather pattern is dying down a little so the forthcoming week sees less risk of prolonged and heavy spells of rain although this type of weather is very unpredictable and then it is almost impossible to predict who gets the heavy rain if it develops.

The Atlantic High is building nicely so this week should see some normality with stronger trade winds setting in and occasional showers.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING ... 9TH JUNE 2010 ... 1730 BST

I have spent the afternoon watching a plume of moisture developing to the south and east of Tobago which is indirectly associated with a Tropical Wave.

This has now developed into a large and slow moving area of extremely heavy rain tracking north west, the worst of which is currently affecting Barbados and St Lucia. Tobago is getting heavy rain right now but this is not currently as extreme as the rainfall elsewhere. Trinidad is currently getting no rain from this system.

New bursts of strong convection within this system indicate to me that Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada have a high risk (+80%) of experiencing extreme weather conditions with immediate effect and for the next 12 hours with torrential rain, thunderstorms and squally conditions.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 13TH JUNE 2010 ... 1700 BST


Last week was typical of what can happen at this time of year ... Tobago took alot of rain although Barbados actually got the worst of it ... but some very intense storms developed very quickly and then died out as quickly as they developed.

The wet season is definitely here.

The week ahead is also interesting ... see the 2010 Hurricane season posts for more details.

This week should be relatively fine to start with but I am expecting conditions to worsen towards the end of the week and into the weekend with a high risk of heavy rain ... there is currently a low chance of a more significant weather event and the risks of this will have to be reviewed as the week progresses.

Watch for updates here and in the 2010 Hurricane string.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 21ST JUNE 2010 ... 1200 BST


As predicted, the rains arrived at the weekend for Tobago and this was associated with a strong Tropical Wave that also carried a potential Tropical Depression that luckily moved too far north to cause any serious problems.

It is still raining, there are some nasty conditions and this bad weather will continue because the Tropical Wave has introduced high levels of moisture to the south east Caribbean and this will be followed up by another Tropical Wave that will arrive by Wednesday ... behind the last Tropical Wave the air is a little drier.

As a consequence I don't expect the weather to improve much until next weekend.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 28TH JUNE 2010 ... 0930 BST

The Tropical Wave that affected Tobago last week has now spawned Tropical Storm Alex, the first named storm of this season ... this affected northern Belize and is now strengthening again over the warm Gulf waters.

The rest of the Caribbean is having a respite after the widespread bad weather last week. A tropical wave is mid-Atlantic but most of it's rain is nearer the equator with dry air restricting the moisture further north ... this could pep up the moisture hanging around South America when it arrives around Wednesday.

Right the way back over in Africa a juicy looking Tropical Wave is about to enter the Atlantic and this already has a depression associated with it ...

... For Tobago this week I expect the weather to be quieter than last week with a small risk of bad weather coming up from the South American mainland from time to time and a slightly higher risk of bad weather on Wednesday as the next Tropical Wave arrives.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 4TH JULY 2010 ... 1100 BST


I almost got it right last week ... the bad weather from the last Tropical Wave arrived a day late on Thursday.

Right now, another Wave is moving in and heavy rain is likely to affect Tobago today and there could be frequent showers for the next day before an area of dry air moves in for the rest of the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

MID-WEEK UPDATE ... 7TH JULY 2010 ... 1930 BST


Pah !!

The dry air has shifted north and the moisture over Tobago continues.

More rain to come in the next 24 hours as the next Wave moves in and it could really pep up and become heavy as the moisture gets a kick out of the approaching Wave.

Another Tropical Wave is 48 hours behind so this week is looking quite wet but there is further dry air behind the second wave ... here's hope for the weekend?

The Caribbean weather is very volatile at the moment.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 10TH JULY 2010 ... 1200 BST

The weather in the Caribbean, last week, was very active as a succession of Tropical Waves crossed the area and culminating in a Tropical Depression forming almost exactly in the same place as TS Alex the previous week ... Mexico has had an incredible amount of rain.

Tobago also had a good deal of rainfall and just missed out on a plume of dry air that moved to the north ... this bad weather lasted until yesterday.

Now it is different ... the last Tropical Wave has dragged a very large plume of dry air full of Saharan Dust which is now introducing itself across the eastern Caribbean ... this dry air is breaking up a little as it moves into very moist conditions but I am expecting this to subdue rainfall this week.

So ... this week looks like less in the way of rain and more in the way of sunshine.

The Models are not forecasting any Storm developments for the week either.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE TO LAST WEEKEND'S FORECAST ... 13TH JULY 2010 ... 1200 BST


Once again the dry air has shifted north and the ITCZ has moved north to within 10 degrees of Tobago.

This raises the risk of rain and, with the ITCZ close by, the rainfall can come and go with little warning.

I predict that the chances of some heavy rain from time to time are high for the remainder of this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 18TH JULY 2010 ... 1115 BST

Thanks Simon for weather feedback ... it's very helpful.

The whole of the Caribbean is experiencing disturbed weather due to the close proximity of the ITCZ and 3 Tropical Waves, 2 of which are in the Caribbean and the 3rd just about to enter the Caribbean. This 3rd Wave has a small depression that is showing some minor signs of development and could pep up very quickly as it enters the Caribbean Sea later tonight and tomorrow.

So the unsettled weather is likely to continue for at least a few more days and it is difficult to predict further durng these conditions.

The next Wave/Depression is likely to affect all of the windward islands over the next 2 days and the worst of this incoming weather is likely to be to the north of Tobago.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 25TH JULY 2010 ... 2345 BST


After all the unsettled weather over most of the last week it looks like there will be a quiet interlude as dry saharan air moves into the Caribbean.

This should bring fine weather to most areas for the next 2 or 3 days ... but there are some more Tropical Waves on the way.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 1ST AUGUST 2010 ... 1030 BST


It looks like this week is gearing up for some unsettled weather particularly towards the middle and end of the week.

A strong tropical wave is about half way across the Atlantic and a depression has developed very close to the ITCZ. The NHC are currently giving this a 40% chance of developing into a Tropical Storm within the next 48 hours and the risks increase after this which means we are very likely to have a Tropical Storm or Hurricane by the end of this week.

As this system is currently on a very low latitude the risks to the Caribbean are high so this needs watching. I expect that, regardless of the track of the system, the Tropical Wave will affect a wide area. It is too early to know where the system will go but the risks to Tobago, for now, are quite low but could increase later this week if the system maintains it's current westerly track.

I will post updates in the Hurricane 2010 section.

Regards