LIQUID SUNSHINE

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 9TH AUGUST 2010 ... 1145 BST


Rather a late update due to some other distractions I have had over the weekend.

Last week calmed down considerably as the anticipated activity associated with Tropical Storm Colin came to nothing and didn't affect any land although there was a good deal of rain in many areas of the Caribbean from the Tropical Waves that passed through.

This week looks quite unsettled for Tobago with the ITCZ just to the north and this can produce heavy rain and thunderstorms very randomly and with little warning.

So ... a week of showers (on the heavy side) but plenty of sunshine in between.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 15TH AUGUST 2010 ... 1000 BST


Last week was very showery with the ITCZ close by.

It is still close and the risk of sudden bursts of rainfall are still high and many of these cannot be detected on satellite radar.

But otherwise there will be plenty of sunshine for Tobago.

Looking to the east it seems relatively calm with a large swathe of dry air over the Atlantic ... how far this will move towards the Caribbean is uncertain but it will at least stifle any Tropical Waves.

The Hurricane season is very quiet and no where near as active as predicted and I see that all the weather gurus are scratching their heads over this as the conditions have been generally good for Storm development ... some are wondering if the extreme imbalances in the global weather (i.e.; the Russian Heatwave; Flooding in Pakistan; higher Artic sea temperatures) are a clue.

Still, there are a few more months of the season to go.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 23RD AUGUST 2010 ... 1145 BST

We are now getting into a period where forecasting is particularly difficult.

The ITCZ is close by Tobago and the next 2 weeks are being forecasted by most computer models to be very active in the way of Tropical disturbances, Storms and Hurricanes.

That said, the weather could be beautiful for Tobago and really wet everywhere else.

Tropical Storm Danielle has formed in the Mid-Atlantic and is expected to be the first significant Hurricane of the season ... there are plenty of very strong Tropical Waves behind Danielle and conditions in the Tropics are becoming better for the development of any Storms.

While the ITCZ can be a pain for Tobago with it's unpredictability it does protect Tobago from the risks of any Storms which do not go near the ITCZ and spin away to the north.

So ... it's sunshine mostly, but watch out for some pretty heavy downpours from time to time.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 29TH AUGUST 2010 ... 1045 BST


Tobago has enjoyed reasonably fine weather this last week and I expect this to continue albeit with the occasional shower.

There are some possible complications though ... see the 2010 Hurricane posts for my daily updates on Tropical Storm Earl which is about to affect the Islands to the north of St Lucia ...

I am a little bit worried about another development in the mid-Atlantic which is being slow to achieve Tropical Storm status ... this is keeping the system on a more southerly latitude and, before any reliable forcastings can be made, represents a risk to the whole Caribbean.

I will be posting regularly on the 2010 Hurricane ... see my updates there.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 5TH SEPTEMBER 2010 ... 1100 BST


Alot has happened in the last week ...

Hurricane Earl affected the Lesser Antilles from Barbados northwards and thankfully there were no fatalities.

Tropical Storm Fiona followed Earl's track and affected the same areas ... again, no fatalities.

We now have another very unpredictable week with a nasty development in the Bay of Campeche that has brought life threatening rains to Guatemala ... the NHC are currently giving this a 50% chance of developing into a Tropical Storm and this is likely to affect Mexico.

Of more concern to the Caribbean are the remnants of Tropical Storm Gaston ... it does not look much on Satellite but it is there and has the potential to develop very quickly as it approaches the Caribbean tomorrow and on Tuesday.

Gaston could track a little to the south because there is a strong ridge of high pressure to the north ... Tobago is at minimal risk but things can change very quickly.

If Gaston dies he could open up into a trough and bring heavy rains over a wide area ... if he develops he will bring the threat of flooding and wind damage to a very small area.

The weather is currently fine in Tobago and this could continue for the whole week, but there is too much going on and too many possibilities to give even a reasonable forecast of what to expect over the next week ...

I am posting updates in Hurricane 2010 almost daily.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ... 9TH SEPTEMBER 2010 ... 1100 BST

This is quite surprising as Tobago is currently to the south of the ITCZ and any potential Storm development normally spins off the north side of the ITCZ.

Anyway, an area of low pressure is bringing very heavy rain and thunderstorms to a wide area of the south east Caribbean and it is very slow moving and showing some signs of development. The NHC have spotted this and give this a 20% risk of developing into a tropical Depression or Storm in the next 48 hours.

Interestingly, the Tobago Meteorological Service is forecasting sunshine and part cloudiness today.

Erm ... no ... they are totally wrong because it is monsoon conditions ... are they based in Tobago? Or are they asleep?

So, while the Tobago Weather Services go about their daily duties I can reliably warn everyone that it is raining heavily, expect thunderstorms, expect squalls, expect flooding and expect this for the next 48 hours ... and it could get worse if this system get's it's act together.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 11TH SEPTEMBER 2010 ... 1745 BST

I said last week was unpredictable and was it unpredictable or unpredictable !!

The Tropical disturbance that developed and brought heavy rain, thunderstorms and squally winds to the south east Caribbean has now moved north west and is about to develop into a Tropical Storm.

Heavy bursts of rain are still affecting Tobago from this system.

The week ahead is the same ... unpredictable, with the ITCZ nearby.

The weather will be mostly good but there is a good chance of a sudden deterioration from time to time.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 18TH SEPTEMBER 2010 ... 1330 BST

There has been plenty to write about over the last week with 3 Hurricanes in action, of which, the main feature was Hurricane Igor ... see the 2010 Hurricane posts.

Igor is having wide ranging effects and bringing heavy seas to Atlantic facing coasts in the Caribbean and he is sucking up alot of moisture from the ITCZ which is bringing rain and some heavy thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean ... I expect this pattern to continue for another 2 days before Igor moves north of Bermuda and out into the Northern Atlantic.

So Tobago has a high risk of rain but this risk will reduce to the normal sunshine and showers after Monday.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 26TH SEPTEMBER 2010 ... 1200 BST

Strange week ... the disturbance that affected Tobago earlier in the week developed into Tropical Storm Matthew and this is now dumping considerable amounts of rain over Central America.

High levels of moisture have been left in Matthew's wake and I think this is going to bring problems for the western Caribbean this week and further north (i.e.; Cuba, Jamaica) towards the end of the week.

To the east ... hmm ... I will stick my neck out and suggest that it is looking better ... there is a clump of heavy showers near Tobago right now but I am sensing it could be a little more settled this week ... as always though, this time of year is very unpredictable.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

MID WEEK UPDATE AND WARNING

Tobago has had very good weather so far this week by comparison to the terrible conditions I predicted over the western Caribbean in my last weekly update.

Unfortunately, the weather is now deteriorating as a strong Tropical Wave moves in from the east.

This is a disturbed area of weather and, although it does not seem likely to develop as it passes over the eastern Caribbean, it carries a threat of very heavy rain, squalls and thunderstorms so there could be localised experiences of Tropical Storm conditions.

Expect this high risk to last for the next 48 hours.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 5TH OCTOBER 2010 ... 1800 BST

It's looking unsettled for Tobago this week.

Currently there is a considerable amount of moisture in the eastern Caribbean and a Tropical Disturbance, that has already brought heavy rain to Tobago.

This disturbance initially seemed to be consolidating it's thunderstorm activity to the north of Tobago but it looks like this is spreading south and the thunderstorms have now reached as far south as Barbados ... there is some risk of heavy rain from this system coupled with the risk of thunderstorms developing anywhere in the eastern Caribbean over the next few days.

Another Disturbance is slowly developing at a very low latitude in the mid-Atlantic ... it seems unlikely that this system will develop into a cyclone but it remains a rain threat to the south east Caribbean in mid week.

The weather appears to be calming down in the west Caribbean but the Disturbance near Tobago and the rest of the Windward Islands could bring more problems to the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Haiti and possibly Jamaica and Cuba this week.

Keep following the 2010 Hurricane reports for updates.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 17TH OCTOBER 2010 ... 1230 BST

The weather in the Caribbean always gets rather strange at this time of year as the risks of Hurricanes reduce and, quite often, some form of Tropical Disturbance can manifest itself out of nowhere.

This week there are 3 areas to watch ...

Over in the western Caribbean there is already significant heavy rain affecting Costa Rica and the NHC are giving this a rating of 20% to spawn a Tropical Storm ... regardless of development, there will be plenty of rain up the western side of the Caribbean this week.

Over to the east is low pressure and this could generate quite alot of showers during this week over the Windwards (including Tobago) although most of this shower activity is likely to be to the north.

Moving further east, about halfway across the tropical Atlantic, there are 2 Monsoonal type troughs ... this weather is about 4-6 days away and mixed in with the ITCZ ... I am not sure if it will keep it's moisture all the way to the Caribbean but it is a potential rain event to look forward to before the weekend.

Happy Holidays !

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 25TH OCTOBER 2010 ... 1230 BST


Hurricane Richard is now falling apart over the mountains of Mexico having brought Category 1 conditions to Belize.

There is not that much else of note in the Caribbean and the weather is calming down very nicely in the east.

I have just spotted a large heavy shower over Trinidad but this should be the exception to the rule for this week as dry air is restricting rain over most of the Eastern Caribbean.

It looks like a mainly sunny week for Tobago with a few showers.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

SPECIAL UPDATE ... 28TH OCTOBER 2010 ... 1645 BST

A depression has formed very close to the equator on the southern end of a vigorous Tropical Wave just a few hundred miles south east of Tobago.

The environment is almost perfect for the development of this system but it is too close to the equator to really get turning ... but ... BIG BUT ... this is unpredictable.

The track is not certain ... it could go into South America or it could start developing a centre if it stays over the warm seas around Trinidad & Tobago before additional development occurs as it makes progress across the Caribbean Sea.

There are already heavy showers around Trinidad & Tobago ... these are not connected to this system which will bring potentially violent thunderstorm activity, heavy rainfall and potential localised Tropical Storm force winds by late Friday.

Expect a wet weekend and bring the boats in.

Updates will appear in the 2010 Hurricane thread.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 1ST NOVEMBER 2010 ... 1700 GMT

Last week was surreal as Hurricane Tomas broke countless records and formed just to the east of the Windwards and threatened all the Islands as far north as St Lucia ... for a time, Tobago was almost directly in the path of Tomas but he wobbled north and his eye passed Barbados and the south of St Lucia.

He has now weakened but his remnants are bringing further rain to Marguerita and the Dutch Antilles. Trinidad is close to having a second bite of Tomas.

Anyway, Tobago I believe got some considerable rainfall and more rain is unwelcome on saturated land.

Unfortunately, although this week is going to be a big improvement, more rain is likely in midweek as another Tropical Wave passes through the Windwards by Wednesday ... there is another Wave after that so it's looking unsettled up to the weekend.

Grab the sunshine while you can.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 8TH NOVEMBER 2010 ... 1000 GMT

Last week was a very active week with plenty of scares as Hurricane Tomas caused problems in many parts of the Caribbean ... Tomas became a Hurricane 3 times, near St Lucia, near Haiti and again as he sped off into the open Atlantic ... he is now gone.

It now looks much better ... there is nothing of note in the Atlantic and the skies look clear over most of the Caribbean apart from Tomas' tail lingering over the north east Caribbean.

The week ahead looks like it will bring plenty of fine weather to Tobago, just a few showers but don't forget that the air is still quite moist and a prolonged period of rain of a few hours can brew up at any time.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 15TH NOVEMBER 2010 ... 0945 GMT

The weekend has brought a fair amount of rain to the area around Tobago ... this is due to a large area of low pressure that has been affecting the southern Caribbean for the last few days.

Part of this has brought a disturbance in the far south west Caribbean that briefly threatened to develop into a Storm but I think this threat is now diminishing.

The week ahead is looking quite typical with the usual routine sunshine and showers. There is a small risk of the showers increasing on Weds/Thurs as a weak Tropical Wave passes through.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE 22ND NOVEMBER 2010 ... 1100 GMT


I am expecting a wetter than average week this week with plenty of moisture about and 2 troughs on the way from the Atlantic.

There should be plenty of sunshine but expect the showers to be a little longer and more frequent.

Europe is getting very cold this week and there is a risk of disruption to flights and travel particularly towards the end of the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

26TH NOVEMBER 2010 ... TRAVEL NOTICE FOR NEXT WEEK ... FROM THE UK/EUROPE

Whilst I am expecting the wet weather in Tobago to improve there are indications that exceptionally severe wintry weather is going to affect the UK from Tuesday next week.

It is already very cold and various fringes of the UK are getting some snow that is being over-hyped by the media.

From Tuesday I am expecting a potentially severe snow event to affect the south of England and over three days to affect the rest of the UK ... Wednesday and Thursday I expect to be the worst and, of course, Monarch and Virgin fly from Gatwick to Tobago on those days.

Some of the snow may turn to rain but if it does not it could shape up to be quite a severe snowstorm ... and then ice.

So ... all UK and north European travellers next week ... be prepared for disruption on the roads, trains and planes ... plan ahead and give yourselves plenty of time to get to the airports.

Likewise ... all those expecting to return from Tobago to the UK next week ... don't be surprised if you have an extended holiday ... if you do return, please dress up well because it is going to be very cold.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 28TH NOVEMBER 2010 ... 1030 GMT


Travel Update from Europe ... conditions are deteriorating across the northern Europe mainland and the UK. The models are predicting a low will move across northern France this week. It could bring a significant snow event to the southern UK but this is looking less likely as the low seems to be on a more southerly track.

Regardless, the low to the south of the UK is going to strengthen the easterly winds and bring widespread snow to northern Europe and the UK ... expect severe travel disruption and possibly complete shut down at times this week for rail, road and airports.

There seems to be no end of this severe weather in sight. One or two models are hinting at milder conditions in 2 weeks but there is not much confidence in this ... so please plan ahead if you are catching flights over the next 2/3 weeks and protect your homes from the freezing conditions while you are away.


In Tobago and the whole of the south Caribbean, it has been wet and there has been a slight improvement over the last few days. But I expect the high risk of rain to continue this week due to the proximity of the ITCZ which is at an unusually high latitude for this time of year.

As always, there will be some good spells of sunny weather but I expect plenty of rain during this last week of the wet (?) season.

Regards