2010 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

DAMNATION ALLEY

The 'alley' of significant rain activity appears to be sucking up moisture from the whole of the southern Caribbean and pushing it northwards into a widening plume of intense rain that is now a couple of hundred miles away from the east coast of the US.

East and West of the southern end of this plume in the Caribbean are 2 Tropical Disturbances.

The one from the West is the remnant of the nasty weather that affected Jamaica and this looks like giving Jamaica more rain (I saw an unofficial report of a recording of 28 inches of rain falling in Jamaica over 2 days).

From the East, the first Tropical Wave has passed Trinidad and Tobago and is now merging with the moisture from the West before it gets sucked up into this 'alley' or plume that is streaming northwards and out into the western Atlantic.

The second Tropical Wave is close behind ... this is the one they are worried about ... but it seems to have lost alot of it's moisture in recent hours. Will it pep up as it moves into the Caribbean? It's so unpredictable.

These are truly monsoon-type conditions for the whole of the Caribbean and all the Islands should be cautious for the next 3 to 4 days.

Regards

[Andy K]

Well Paul, we tend to, at least, blame the messenger

Heavy rain over north-east Trinidad caused some flooding yesterday, but fortunately with limited damage to property.
This day started fair to overcast with little rain at least in north-western Trinidad. The breeze is very calm and i haven't seen any warnings or bulletins coming from met office so far for the day. We hope it will remain like that.

[Robert T]

Hi all,

This morning started up with some persistent rain lasting till about 11 am, then it all cleared up allowing us to have a sunny and very hot period for the rest of the day. Hope it remains this way at least as long as our stay.


Robert

[Paul Tallet]

Thanks Andy

Sorry Robert, you are going to get some more heavy rain. It's falling as I type but there is a possibility that Tobago may escape anymore rain after tonight as this disturbance seems to be developing the rains more to the north ... keep your fingers crossed ... it is very hit and miss.

Once this second Tropical Wave moves through I expect Tobago will have some good weather for at least a few days ... I will do the Liquid Sunshine Update tomorrow.

Meanwhile ... 13 deaths have been confirmed in Jamaica and this toll is expected to rise a little more as there are still people missing ... the Jamaican Government have also announced that they cannot claim on their Insurance to cover the considerable costs of the damage because the disturbance (monsoon) was not classified as a Hurricane which, of course, can cause less damage over a smaller area ... I just cannot believe this statement.

This may sound harsh, but I think Jamaica needs to sort it's Insurance policy out ... I gave a warning of the risks of this weather event affecting the western Caribbean in last week's Liquid Sunshine Update but only a few read my posts ... some more reputable (than me) forecasters with wider readership were also giving warnings ... it was not unforeseen (even by amateurs like me) ... despite the misfortune, Jamaica's Government should not be making excuses and be better prepared for dealing with and insuring against these unavoidable events that inevitably occur in Tropical Climates ... duh !!

I hope other countries in Tropical climates take note.

Regards

[Christine Nelson]

Hi Paul

Any idea of the weather for Cuba from 14 October or is it to early to tell as there r a group of 30 of us going out there for my Sons wedding.

I will be back in Tobago 2nd Dec for 5 months so hopefully weather will be ok by then,

Thanks Chris

[Roger D.]

Hey Paul - When do you expect things to start to quiet down and what are your predictions for Winter? Last Winter was rough! I beleive that the North Atlantic Oscillation was the culprit...

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Christine

It is too early to tell for Cuba ... alot of the forecasting models are predicting a disturbance will form in the southern Caribbean in about 6 to 8 days from now and these systems have a habit of going either west over Central America and Mexico or they can curve to the north-east which brings problems for Cuba ... just keep an eye on my updates ... the main thing about Cuba is that it is one of the most organised Countries in the world for dealing with weather events.

Hi Roger ... how you doing?

Yes ... last winter was odd (and very cold) and we have had extremes this summer with the Russian heatwave and records broken in many parts of the world for extreme heat. The Tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea have had record breaking sea temperatures of 30 centigrade which partly explains why 2010 has been a very active season.

But that's the whole point of Hurricanes, they are the air-conditioning units supplied by Mother Nature to cool down the seas because their intense circulations churn the seas to great depths and mix it up. I remember how cool the sea was in Tobago in 2006 after the very active 2005 season.

So, what with all the extremes we have experienced, I would expect the weather to calm down a little for most ... nature has it's way of balancing the equations.

Having said all that ... why did Pakistan get such an incredible monsoon when the Pacific has been relatively cooler this year? Hmmmm ......


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATES

The Tropical Disturbance over the eastern Caribbean is slow moving and producing lots of rain as far south as Tobago and as far north as Puerto Rico.

I have seen a report from Tobago of 'horizontal palm trees' and 'thrashing rain' and spectacular lightening displays and many other similar reports from other Islands.

The cloud tops of this system seem to be warming a little so the intensity is easing a bit but it can regenerate as it fights against the wind shear affecting it ... not out of the woods yet.

I would say there is another 24 hours of risk to Tobago from heavy rain and this risk extends for up to 3 days for the Northern Antilles.

The other little system I mentioned yesterday is also fighting against strong shear but it still represents another rain risk later this week.

Regards

Regards

[GervaisAlkins]

Hey Paul,
love your reports. Ironic that I live in Tobago and yet your insights are more concise than our local radio weather reports at times. Also I surf, windsurf, swim, kayak, scuba dive, sail and consider myself a waterman.....have you ever thought of including rough sea reports for visitors to know what beaches might be to rough to go to or advisories on impending rough seas? I do check out websites to know if there's gonna be surf but it seems the T&T met office are clueless when it comes to these things. Take care

[Paul Tallet]

Hey Gervais

Thank you for your kind words.

I do occasionally comment on the sea conditions particularly if it is getting rough and I would be happy to do this more regularly if this is of interest.

There are a few surfing sites that predict the sea conditions around the globe.

The strange thing about Tobago is that with the Atlantic side, the Caribbean side, the variety of beaches, their slopes and the directions they face, the conditions can be very different at times.

On a seperate note, kayaking ... would you be able to help fix me up on that? It's one of the few ways I can get to Lover's Bay up near Charlottesville ... it is the most beautiful place I have found for snorkelling.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE

The Disturbance is still widespread and heavy rains extend from (south) the Grenadines and right up well north of Puerto Rico ... again this is a monsoon type feature although it seems the NHC have identified a circulation just north of the Virgin Islands.

Tobago is not out of the woods yet because heavy rains are nearby but I expect there will be a short break before the next area of moisture moves in from the east.

Plumes of moisture are also coming from the south ... it's what I call a proper wet season, the first distinctive wet season for about 6 years.

These large Disturbances (or Monsoons) should have their own classification as, apart from the huge amounts of rain, they can bring localised Tropical Storm conditions and Hurricane force gusts to random areas ... we have already learned this year from Jamaica's experience and it is quite wrong to wait until a system ticks all the boxes to be called a Hurricane or Tropical Storm before the warnings go out.

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hey Sir Paul! I'm great! Looking at your forecasts with bated breath! Seems as though the weather is active this year and a bit rough, freak storms are popping up all over.

So what happened in Pakistan?

[Paul Tallet]

Hey Sir Roger

I haven't the faintest clue about Pakistan other than the fact that it was the worst monsoon in knowingness. Looks like Indonesia and Vietnam are getting a bad one too. When I get round to it I will study the phenomena behind it but with cooler seas on that side of the globe I was surprised ... maybe the high pressure block causing the Russian heatwave conditions could have played a part in it.

Meanwhile, back in Tobago, it's easing up ... still moisture about but less of that rain. the Disturbance is now well to the north and will skate off across the Atlantic affecting nowhere but it is leaving alot of moisture behind with the heaviest rains over Puerto Rico.

There is a trivial blob in the mid-Atlantic that I am watching and, other than that, watch out (like this ) in the western Caribbean next week.

I hope to have a break for a few days but I will post if there are any developments.

Regards

[Andy K]

Trinidad experienced isolated heavy thunder showers and storm conditions over the last few days, with destruction
of approximately 20 roofs in Cedros, South Trinidad, and strong south-westerly gusts in Chaguaramas, causing
moored yachts to go adrift two nights ago.

As for the "quality" of this rainy season, Paul calls it a "proper wet season", the amount of rainfall measured by the met office is way beyond average and already caused serious damage in agriculture, roads and other infrastructure.
Besides that, almost everybody now experiences unwanted effects like wood swelling up in a way that windows can't open
or close anymore, mildew starts to build on carpets and other interior, bricks and concrete starts to soak up water because buildings now stand on totally saturated soil.

I sincerely hope that this will end on time or at least fade out within the next two months, otherwise everybody will suffer more or less damage to property and face expensive repairs.

[Paul Tallet]

Be thankful it doesn't happen every year Andy.

This system is now called 'Otto' by the powers that be ... again, of little significence as most of the damage and the wake is already done ... it was another Monsoon though (in my opinion).

I need to correct one point ... the rains are more east of Puerto Rico, still there ... seeing reports of 8+ inches even though Otto is well away to the north and will get stuck into the westerlies soon ... naughty boy, likes leaving the proverbial turd on your doorstep and then he is gone while you deal with the issues.

Weather improving in the south and east Caribbean ... still alot of moisture though ... stay sharp everyone please.

Regards

[GervaisAlkins]

Hey Paul,
in C'ville there's a gentleman by the name of Peter Trotman who manages the C'ville Kayak Center.His number is 868-320-0885.I'm unaware of anyone else in C'ville who rents kayaks. But don't know if you heard how bad the coral bleaching has gotten over here recently. I was at Englishman's Bay on Sunday and never seen it look that bad before.
Take care

[Paul Tallet]

Hey Gervais

I used to use Karl (from recollection) before he left and someone has taken it over ... I will give the new guy a call.

I have seen evidence of the bleaching in previous years but not to any great extent ... I guess the warm sea temperatures this year have not helped. Charlottesville's main reef is a disaster after the flooding in 2004 and even Lovers Bay reef had alot of dead coral but there were little bits of beauty here and there. Shame about Englishmans though ... that's bad news to me.

How is Arnos Vale coping?

Touch wood ... I hope to be out there next March so shout me if you fancy a kayak.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE OTTO

The 'disturbance' has spawned Hurricane Otto and a pretty good looking Hurricane from the satloops.

Problem is ... Otto is being credited with all the damage in the Leewards when he was a 'disturbance' and not a Hurricane. The only threat areas now are the Canary Islands and possibly Europe. Again, I make my case for classifying disturbances that don't meet Tropical Storm or Hurricane criteria.

Moisture is building again from the east and there is another disturbance in the western Caribbean ... I was hoping to have a few days off

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Hi everyone

Sorry I have not updated Liquid Sunshine this week ... been having a rest.

I hope Christine is reading this ... she enquired about Cuba for her wedding party on 14th October and I suggested a disturbance could form in the western Caribbean at about this time.

There is a disturbance and it is debatable if it develops into a Hurricane but it is currently affecting Nicaragua and Honduras and will probably bring some rains to Belize and Mexico.

Some heavy rain is approaching western Cuba ahead of the system and it looks likely that the weather in western Cuba is going to be very wet and possibly squally for the next few days. If you are on the eastern side of Cuba you may be alright Christine .

Other than that ... it is looking quieter elsewhere ... Tobago is getting normal (?) weather at the moment.

Regards

[GervaisAlkins]

Hey Paul,
we have had nearly a week of sun bar a few scattered showers around the Main Ridge. They sun has been out and in full force.....it felt a bit like dry season last week!