2011 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

NEW THREAT?

I doubt it ... last week's threat brought heavy rains to Islands mostly north of Tobago although Tobago did catch a few heavy showers ... this is now threatening to develop into a Tropical depression as it moves closer to Belize.

The next threat is for Saturday and, again, I reckon this new system is going to struggle to develop ... if it does it is a problem for the northern Lesser Antilles ... if it doesn't it will stay south and pose heavy rainfall prospects for Tobago at the weekend.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE IRENE

As referred to in Liquid Sunshine.

This is the strongest Storm of the season just leaving the northern coast of Hispaniola.

A big threat to the low lying Bahamas, some islands could be totally flooded by the surge.

A threat to Haiti and Cuba with rainfall and subsequent threat to Florida and the rest of the eastern US coast.

This storm is responsible, apparently, for the destruction of Richard Branson's resort in the Virgin Islands.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

DANGEROUS IRENE

Hurricane Irene has been pummelling the Bahamas and now represents a significant threat to the eastern US with New York possibly in it's sights.

The whole of the eastern coast of the US is likely to experience heavy seas as Irene is already a major Category 3 Hurricane and is expected to reach Category 4 in the next 2 days.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Depression has formed at a rather low latitude just south west of the Cape Verde Islands but this one is expected to go north.

This indicates that nothing sinister will affect the Caribbean for at least the next 7 days.

It is worth mentioning at this point that I have stupidly booked a holiday from the 7th September until the 19th during which I will have no internet access unless I come across an Internet Cafe ... this is the peak of the Hurricane Season so I am hoping I don't miss anything.

Regards

[SallyMevans]

Hi Paul

The forum users are lucky to have your updates on Hurricane activity in the area. I'm sure they will cope when you are on holiday and having a well earned rest! Thanks for all the time you give to the forum.

We used to use a little ditty to remind us of the Atlantic Hurricane Season:

JUNE , TOO SOON.
JULY, STANDBY.
AUGUST, THE SUREST.
SEPTEMBER, REMEMBER.
OCTOBER, ALL OVER.

Not sure if this is an accurate prediction of the "surest" time for Hurricanes!

Having survived Hurricane FLORA in Tobago in 1963, with only TWO HOURS warning, your insight into their possible movements is a real bonus to those in Tobago. (FLORA was one of the deadliest Atlantic Hurricanes, killing 18 people in Tobago and wiping out 75% of the rainforest canopy.)

Sally

[Roger D.]

Hey Sir Paul! We on the east coast are now battening down the hatches. I live not far the the Jersey Shore and Irene is expected to make a direct hit with 80 mph winds and about a foot of rain! I'm currently stocking up on coca-cola to ensure that I have enough to go with the Rum!
I've never experienced a hurricane, so I'll be holding on tight, tight, tight. I survived tropical storm Alma when it breezed through Trinidad in 1975 I believe and that in itself was an experience!

[Paul Tallet]

Hey Sally

I like that ... Flora was bad ... you can see the dates on the bridges on the main road through the rainforest which were being built at the time and there is a little gap in the dates.

Ivan, back in 2004 was a very close shave ... the centre passed about 10km north.


Hey Roger ... don't worry about the coke, get the rum sorted out ... I hope you are safe.


Irene is an unsual Storm ... the track is quite rare as this Hurricane is expected to graze the US East Coast all the way up to New York ... plus, Irene is a big girl bringing plenty of rain to a widespread area ... I don't think the winds will be too bad ... the rain and potential storm surge are the main threats.

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hey Sir Paul - yes, the rum is all sorted out, 6 bottles of Vat 19 and a bottle of Mount Gay Sugar Cane Brandy! I'm all set...

[Andy K]

JUNE , TOO SOON.
JULY, STANDBY.
AUGUST, THE SUREST.
SEPTEMBER, REMEMBER.
OCTOBER, ALL OVER.

Well "October, all over" .... last year we had to endure 14 hours of constant downpour and thunderstorm as a
huge feeder band of Hurricane "Tomas" passed over Tobago during the last weekend in October.
I don't really need that again

[Paul Tallet]

KATIA

Hurricane Irene is now gone, leaving a trail of death and considerable damage up the US East Coast mostly from her rain and storm surge.

I hope you came out of it unscathed, Roger.

Next up, Katia ... this is another big storm at quite a low latitude south of the Cape Verde Islands. The models are generally predicting a steady curve north west and north and it is possible that Katia will not affect the US but Bermuda could be at some risk. The Caribbean look safe from Katia at the moment.

Early days but we should know more towards the end of this week.

Regards

[Keith Groves]

What is the most likely outcome of Katia on Tobago? Looking at the storm paths it should pull NW, but will Tobago get a substantial amount of rain during this time? We are also coming to dive, which this storm should have an affect on the currents as well, plus making the water very murky.

My wife and I are planning on arriving in Trinidad on Friday and staying 13 days, but have trip insurance and also the ability to change our trip to another spot. Believe me, I want to visit Tobago badly, but also to be delayed, then spend several days in the rain isn't ideal.

Thanks for any advice and I realize it is too early to tell, but many of you have years of experience in dealing with these storms that I simply don't. Your expertise is appreciated.

[Steve Wooler]

Hi Keith

Welcome aboard!

Paul is supposed to be away on holiday at the moment - so we should be telling him to 'xxxx' off and enjoy himself rather than worrying about the weather on the other side of the pond.

As Paul has just said, though, the Caribbean looks safe from Katia. Tobago is just south of the hurricane belt so not normally affected by hurricanes - and from what Paul says, Tobago stands no chance of being affected by this one. Enjoy!

[Paul Tallet]

LOL ... my holiday doesn't start until 7th September.

Keith ... Hurricanes are rare for Tobago.

Regards

[Keith Groves]

Thanks for the replies. I am more concerned for heavy rains than the hurricane itself. I've visited Los Roques and Bonaire both in September before to stay outside the hurricane belt, but also have been stuck on an island during a tropical depression that flooded not only the bottom floor of the hotel, but also the runway at the airport.

[Paul Tallet]

Very true Keith.

The far south of the Caribbean often gets affected by Tropical Waves and many of these develop into Tropical depressions as they pass through.

Tropical Waves can bring even localised Tropical Storm conditions.

But ... these areas are close to the equator and many have rainforests (such as Tobago) that can generate their own fair share of rainfall ... when the rain falls it can be very heavy, and prolonged when boosted by a passing Tropical Wave. Conversely, these locations can boost the potency of a Tropical Wave.

As matters stand ... I don't predict anything like this for at least a week. Katia is now a closed circulation moving north-west so there is no longer a Tropical Wave that can affect a wider area.

This means that I see nothing for about a week apart from the usual sunshine and showers for Tobago. Yes, there may be some sea swells if Katia becomes a major Hurricane but Tobago should be as far away from this system as you can be in the Caribbean.

Hope this helps.

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hey Sir Paul; Yes, I escaped unscathed, just a bit of a hangover , thank you for asking. I think Irene came in with 70 mph winds, that was scary. I had a beautiful Bradford Pear tree in the front of my house and since they are prone to falling, I knew this time around it was going to. I warned my neighbour not to park close to the tree. We started to feel the full effects starting around 11:00 pm or so. I watched my tree dance like a ballerina, I was so proud of her, but sadly, she tried the likkity split and came down with a bang onto my neighbours car. All in all we are all safe and I think we dodged a big one, it could have been much worse, but the folks in Vermont, oh boy.

Enjoy your vacation, I'll be right next door to you, from the 9th till the 20th.

Keith, welcome and enjoy your vacation. By the way, Paul is ALWAYS right in his forecasts!

[Paul Tallet]

Hey Roger ... next door to me? Next Feb 2012?

How cool

Regards

[Roger D.]

Sir Paul - I meant an island next door. NE of Tobago.

[Paul Tallet]

Oh Roger ... how could you !!

Oh well ... such is life in Barbados.

It may not be that good there later this week because there is a question mark over a new development off the African Coast that is now south of the Cape Verde Islands at a relatively low latitude ... I think there is a very small chance that this could affect the northern Leeward Islands if it does not develop too much.

If it develops then it is likely to spin further north and the US and Bermuda (possibly) will have an interest ... by the end of this weekend it will be close.

Elsewhere, Katia is a strong hurricane looking to curve between the US and Bermuda and back out into the northern Atlantic where she is expected to become a very large north Atlantic Storm ... Northern Europe and possibly the UK need to watch out for a possible weather event by Monday/Tuesday next week ... as if there hasn't been enough.

Meanwhile, back on the farm, I decided to take a break from all this during the peak of the Hurricane Season and go wallow peacefully in the Algarve sunshine ... how appropriate ?!? ... but there is a little known surfing beach there (Zavial) that provides some quite unbelievable rollers from these Atlantic Storms ...

Anyway ... I should have some internet access so watch out for sporadic reports from now until the 19th.

Have fun everybody

Regards

[Roger D.]

Algarve sounds nice Sir Paul, enjoy the sunshine, watch out for the rollers. We on the east coast have all been watching Katia, thank goodness she's turning, after Irene we cant take much more. Right now it's raining cats and dogs and the forecast is going to be rain and more rain for the rest of the week. The rivers are swelling again, those folks that got flooded out with Irene are in the thick of things once again.

As for that Island NE of where you're going to be , eh, it's something different. After Tobago of course so far I like Bequia and the Grenadines. H.R.H. Princess Margaret was correct, the water is so pretty there - Les Jolies Eaux

[Andy K]

TS MARIA

Tropical storm MARIA has formed in the mid Atlantic and it appears that the northern Leeward Islands
may be affected by weekend. MARIA is not forcast to develop to a Hurricane, but interests in the northern Leewards
and possibly down to St. Lucia should monitor this system.
Trinidad and Tobago appear to be safe from MARIA, except for some swells while the storm is passing further north.