Hurricane ?

by **Kate H** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 8:23 pm

PS am I the only one with visions of Paul in a command centre monitoring the weather something like Number 2's lair in the Prisoner?

hmmmmmmm

by **Steve Fifield** » Mon Oct 04, 2004 9:14 pm

Pop. Good evening number 1122.

I did not want to mention this before, but what you have stumbled on is much more revealing than you think! Until recently, I spent a lot of time driving around in a Lotus 7, but have now also become entrapped by MyTobago. You are next.

It will come as no surprise that Number 2 is none other than: Steve Wooler :shock:

What does he want? Yes, "Information, Information"!

30 years on, and Number 6 has finally become a Yes man: Patrick Dankou

by **Paul Tallet** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 1:03 am

Hmmmm ... methinks <rubbing chin with considerable thought> I know the origins of this particular gentleman ...

If my fingers are sticky, it will already be too late (laughs manicly like Austin Powers' Dr. Evil).

... jump off the branch mate ... come down ... have a dance ... we need to negotiate !!!

Heh Heh Heh ...

by **Marc Jones** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 10:02 am

Steve Fifield wrote:Pop. Good evening number 1122.

Nice weather for this time of year, don't you think?. Watch out for Paul's 'Weather Balloon'.

Having started the McGoohan inspired madness I just wanted to say I did get that line ;-)

Although I have to say had Number 6 been held on Tobago his desire to escape may well have been diminished!

by **Paul Tallet** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 6:54 pm

Oooops ... No. 596 could have blown the cover.

617

by **Paul Tallet** » Tue Oct 05, 2004 11:15 pm

Update ...

3 tropical waves now ... the nearest is to the north east of Tobago and is 'digging in' well against the westerly shear.

Quite a juicy bunch of thunderstorms but I agree with the forecasters that the heavy shear will give it too much of a neck-shave for any serious development to occur.

The 2 other waves will be watched and there is little chance of a 'sense of humour failure' from Mother Nature at this stage due to the conditions I mentioned in my previous update ... but I still expect the next week or so to be quite rainy for Tobago due to the convection off the mainland Venezuela.

I watched the UK weather today and I was interested to note that they reckon that the remnants of Lisa will cross the northern UK tomorrow when, in fact, Lisa is now scaring the mooses off the slopes of the Norwegian Fjords.

Please spare a thought for the Mooses tonight ...

by **Paul Tallet** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 10:58 pm

Update ...

Quite a battle going on.

The north westerly airflows over most of the Caribbean continue to make it unlikely that any serious hurricane activity can be possible for some days ... apart from waves developing in the west (one is brewing near Mexico but the prospects of that affecting Tobago are unlikely in the extreme).

But there is a real string of waves forming off the west African coast and these are headed by the expanding band of violent thunderstorms to the east of the Antilles.

This will make no progress for now and for as long as the airflows remain as they are ... but the main band that I have mentioned represents the boundary between the airflows pushing from the east and the west.

This will give at some point soon and there will be the increased likelihood that the waves from Africa could develop and move into the Caribbean.

At this later stage in the season ... the prospects of real trouble are now starting to recede ...

by **Paul Tallet** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 3:57 am

The 'brew' I mentioned near Mexico is now Tropical Storm Matthew ... no problems there, but I still think that the real Matthew was the one that frolicked with Lisa and sent her spinning North.

The band of disturbance to the east of the Antilles seems to be forming a circulation to the north that could develop into something and cause Bermuda some anxiety ... again, no problems for Tobago there.

There are two very large waves forming in the Atlantic and at relatively low latitude. The airflows over the mid-southern Caribbean would typically push these north as long as they stay the same.

But as I said yesterday, the disturbance to the east of the Antilles seems to represent a division between this and the westerly orientated weather from Africa and it could break down.

One of these waves is (not far) to the south east of Tobago and this does not present much threat but there is a real juicy one further away at a slightly higher latitude that I will keep an eye on for development over the next few days.

Whatever ... the convection off the mainland of Venezuela is still producing intermittent rainfall over Tobago ... getting a bit soggy.

by **Paul Tallet** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:30 pm

Update ...

As predicted, the east - west split is breaking down and the circulation I mentioned in the previous message formed into Extra Tropical Storm Nicole and is now heading towards the Arctic.

The convection from the Venezuelan mainland is no longer affecting T & T and is being replaced by a south easterly airflow that is quite moist and producing further showers, although these are not of the intensity of those in recent days.

To the north is a northwesterly airflow moving diagonally from the Dutch Antilles north east across the Caribbean and a large anticylone to the north east over the Atlantic.

This would force any potential tropical waves further south or shear them away altogether should they try to move north.

In a nutshell ... quiet, but with potential for more 'less intense' rainfall ... the potential for hurricances and tropical storm development is virtually nil for the eastern Caribbean.

by **Marc Jones** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:53 pm

Just tell me the first week in December will be dry, hot and sunny as hell.

;-)

by **Paul Tallet** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:54 pm

Marc

I am pleased to confirm to you that the first week of December will be dry, hot and sunny as hell ...

... somewhere ...

... it just depends if you are in the right place at the right time !!!

Heh Heh Heh :lol:

by **David Watkins** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:59 am

Oh Paul,you'l have Marc going paranoid again,David

by **Marc Jones** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:04 pm

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they are not out to get me...

Or something similar ;-)

by **Marc Jones** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 11:32 am

Paul, saw this, thought of you...

http://www.earthbrowser.com/index.html

by **Paul Tallet** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:08 pm

Cor !!

Thanks Marc ... I will add this to my already wide range of weather sites.

Sorry I was a bit mean about December (grovel ... grovel) ... I promise to have a look at it before you go.

by **Marc Jones** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:14 pm

Nah, you wasn't mean! I smiled as I read it.

I fully expect freakish weather reversal as my flight touches down in snow and London experiences a heatwave for 7 days ;-)

by **Paul Tallet** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 2:17 pm

Hmmm ...

If you are prepared to pay rather alot of money (unlike me) to [Editor: broken link removed] they will tell you that a cold snap is expected in the UK for the week 4th - 11th December.

But then I have already told you !!

The other option is to buy a newspaper today for a few p and they will tell you what metwatch say.

But you still won't do that because I have already told you.

Anyway, these chaps apparently predicted the UK's wet summer and they are cashing in on their expertise ... so if they are right again this time then you could have chosen a very good time to go as long as your pipes are suitably lagged !!

by **Paul Tallet** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 10:53 pm

Correction ... http://www.metcheck.com

by **Paul Tallet** » Thu Oct 14, 2004 7:18 pm

Good time to be in Tobago.

A very steady easterly airflow is establishing itself over most of the Caribbean which is a bit unusual for this time of year.

This effectively block/shears off any approaching storm waves from the east and forces the strong ones north ... hence the main area for development is the other side of Mexico on the Pacific side.

The weather should be good, even on the Atlantic side of the island, but there is always the small risk of convective rainfall developing from mainland Venezuela.

by **Paul Tallet** » Fri Oct 15, 2004 7:18 pm

Plenty of tropical waves piling up to the east but these are being kept at bay by the easterly/northerly airflows over the Caribbean.

There is a little light convective shower activity but otherwise this is a very calm and sunny period for Tobago.

Let's hope this current weather pattern does not break down and those considering a last minute option should go for it.

Hurricane ?

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