LIQUID SUNSHINE

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Paul Tallet
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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun May 26, 2019 10:26 am

WEATHER … 26TH MAY 2019
HEAVY SHOWERS WHERE AND WHEN THEY HAPPEN


The weather is very mobile this week.

Low pressure is positioned over Columbia and is responsible for the very thundery weather across the Caribbean Sea and partially responsible for feeding the high levels of warm energy moving northwards and into the central US. The central US has been having significantly extreme weather conditions over the last week or so as a result of this warm Caribbean influence.

The Columbia Low is also responsible for sending heavy showers across the southern Caribbean and to the east. Last week brought several heavy rain periods to Tobago.

This week there are 2 Tropical Waves on the way and I believe these Tropical Waves could enhance the rainfall over Tobago with the first one arriving tomorrow / Tuesday and the 2nd Wave arriving late in the week.

The upper airflow is moving from the south west to east and this could have a shearing effect on the Tropical Waves, however when one energy form meets another it can increase the rain intensity in some areas.

Next Saturday, 1st June, is the official start of this year's Wet / Hurricane season and we have already seen a short-lived Tropical Storm Andrea off the eastern coast of Florida and near Bermuda.

I have already started the 2019 Hurricane Forum so check that forum out for the latest information and speculation.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jun 02, 2019 7:37 am

WEATHER … 2ND JUNE 2019
MORE RAIN THIS WEEK


2 Tropical Waves are on the way and the upper airflow is carrying a lot of moisture north east from South America's rain forests.

Although the rainfall is sporadic, it is quite heavy where it falls and the Tropical Waves will enhance moisture levels across most of the south and east Caribbean.

There will be sunshine but rainfall, when it happens, will be prolonged and heavy.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:52 am

WEATHER … 9TH JUNE 2019
4 TROPICAL WAVES THIS WEEK


The rain that is currently affecting Tobago and most of the eastern Caribbean is being enhanced by a tropical wave that has now passed Tobago. This wave is now over the Dutch Antilles but most of the wave is over Venezuela where the heaviest rains have fallen.

3 more tropical waves are queuing along the tropical Atlantic all the way back to Africa and these will bring further periods of rain this week.

In addition, higher pressure to the north of the Caribbean is squeezing the pressure gradients and the consequence of this is strong trade winds that will build moderate to heavy seas in most areas across the southern Caribbean.

It looks like a rather rainy week ahead but there will be sunshine too … if you are a visitor you will need to take each day as it comes to decide what to do and where to go.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:15 am

WEATHER … 16TH JUNE 2019
MORE RAIN THIS WEEK


The last of last weeks predicted tropical waves has just passed Tobago and has introduced high levels of moisture sandwiched between it and the next tropical wave.

Right now there is heavy rain over a broad area of the south east Caribbean and 3 more tropical waves on the way for this week.

Very much the same as last week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:34 am

WEATHER … 23RD JUNE 2019
LESS RAIN THIS WEEK


That does not mean there will be no rain !!

As I type, another tropical wave has just passed Tobago sucking up and enhancing moisture from the rainforests of South America.

Last week was a very wet week with long periods of heavy rain particularly during the first half of the week.

The week ahead looks better but there is one more tropical wave on the way, plus another one about to leave the coast of Africa.

The highest risk of rain is today and midweek when the next tropical wave is expected to arrive. High pressure is stubbornly anchoring itself over and to the south of Bermuda and the wind could pick up from time to time bringing choppy seas in the Caribbean Sea but the worst of this is not likely to reach Tobago.

I expect the seas around the coast to become steadily stronger towards the end of the week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:20 pm

WEATHER … 1ST JULY 2019
ARE THE TRADES GOING TO WIN?


Sorry about the late update … I have had a rather bad bug or perhaps I have self inflicted injuries from too much of the sun that we in the UK do not get enough of.

Last week, my prediction for rain in midweek was about 48 hours wrong, it eventually arrived on Friday and today (Monday) the remnants of the tropical wave is enhanced moisture and plenty of mostly showery rain.

I note that the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ for newbies) is beginning to edge north (where it should be) and that most of the rainfall can be blamed on the ITCZ. This is a constant low pressure area that spans the equator around our world and is often associated with the 'doldrums' where the air does not move and yet the weather conditions are unpredictable.

Anywhere within 10 degrees of the ITCZ would experience calm and the occasional violent thunderstorm.

Tropical Waves often run along the northern side of the ITCZ, boosting moisture in the atmosphere and bringing rains, sometimes developing into Tropical Storms, though normally any Storms often spin off to the north before they reach Tobago.

Right now there is a quite tight pressure gradient between the (ITCZ) low pressure and High pressure over near Bermuda. This brings strong easterly winds AKA trade winds and this can make the seas quite high and choppy from time to time.

This week sees a battle between these entities so there is a good chance of heavy waves but this chance reduces as we near the end of this week.

So … I am expecting the current rains to decrease over Tobago towards mid-week and for calmer conditions but with the constant risk of a heavy shower and possible thunderstorms. These will be localised so very hit and miss.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:57 pm

SORRY

I put my post out but it disappeared … don't know if you can see it but I will do it again tomorrow if I have the time.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:31 am

WEATHER … 8TH JULY 2019
4 TROPICAL WAVES ON THE WAY THIS WEEK


I am hoping this works!

This week is looking rather lively with 4 tropical waves on the march across the tropics.

These will bring rain and squally conditions but I am seeing hints of a small depression forming along one of the waves towards the end of the week which could bring a more organised period of wet weather.

Depending on the exact timing much of the rainfall could fall over night and this would increase the chances of sunshine during daylight.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:26 pm

WEATHER … 15TH JULY 2019
BECOMING MORE SETTLED THIS WEEK


The depression that I have been referring to over the last week is now bringing rains to Tobago and much of the south eastern Caribbean.

This will pass within 48 hours.

Another tropical wave has left Africa. It looks big but too early to assess.

So this week for Tobago … mostly rain and showers through Monday and Tuesday and then it looks like the sunshine will take over for the rest of the week … as long as no rain streamers shoot up from the south.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:17 am

WEATHER … 22ND JULY 2019
DRIER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD


Apologies for the late forecast as I recover from a fantastic weekend of entertainment with family … I hardly even looked at the weather so I have a bit of catching up to do.

The week ahead may look ominous with 5 tropical waves strung out across the tropical Atlantic but there is a dense swathe of Saharan dust across the whole Atlantic that will limit rainfall, although Tobago is just on the southern edge of this and may be prone to some rain from the ITCZ or South America.

I see that the NHC are issuing advisories on a disturbance over the Bahamas but I think the environmental conditions will make this short-lived.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jul 28, 2019 10:56 am

WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD … 28TH JULY 2019
PLENTY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL THIS WEEK


Last week was much drier as predicted but this lasted until Saturday as the dry Saharan air shifted north and allowed a vigorous tropical wave to develop heavy rains over the south east Caribbean.

The general situation is a strong Atlantic High lifting slowly north and a narrowing (yet large) area of Saharan dust opening the corridor along the tropics for tropical waves to develop plenty of moisture.

This marks the point where Storms and Hurricanes can begin their development in the tropical Atlantic as we approach the peak of the Hurricane season in September … up until now, conditions have only been marginally favourable in the Gulf and northern areas of the Caribbean and where Storm development has occurred it has been short-lived, even Barry … but Barry brought heavy rains.

So … Tobago can expect to have stronger tropical waves passing if the Saharan air stays to the north. Any tropical waves that develop into Storms would typically spin to the north although Tobago has had some close shaves in recent years and it should not be surprising if a tropical wave or depression, in the early stages of development, goes close to or over Tobago before it moves onto bigger things elsewhere.

The current tropical wave is starting to take it's rains away from Tobago but there will be some heavy showers around and this wave has introduced plenty of moisture so I am expecting more rain to fall over the next couple of days before the next tropical wave moves in.

Plenty of rain for the week ahead.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:20 am

WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
TRAIN OF TROPICAL WAVES LEAVING AFRICA


It is going to be very difficult to predict the week ahead other then to simply describe the general situation.

As the wet / low / hurricane season (call it what you want!) heats up there is considerable energy building in the tropics but the conditions are not quite right for storm development in the tropical Atlantic.

Tobago is just marginally south of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Some people call this the 'doldrums' because it can be completely calm but severe thunderstorms can develop very quickly and the tropical waves that run along the ITCZ can create these conditions … so you could find yourself having a karma on a sun bed on the beach and suddenly a squall will give you a good soaking and lift all loose objects and scatter them around the beach … most inconvenient!

If you are on the Caribbean side of Tobago you don't get much warning until the dark shelf cloud emerges over the tops of the hilly rainforest !!

But I like this weather because of the calm but it can get incredibly hot and humid. As a guide for those in the UK that experienced the recent heatwave, Tobago would never get as hot and humid as that … but close. Tobago's temperatures are pretty consistent all year with the exception of the nights in high season that are generally cooler (and the sea feels warmer than the air temperature at night) and the humidity lower.

Another factor is the Saharan air layer which is sporadically over Tobago and this factor could reduce rainfall this week.

So amongst all the uncertainties I am leaning towards generally fair weather with the chance of some rude rain interruptions.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:32 am

WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
LOOKING GOOD


It's looking good for next week.

Even the sea is calm but it may get a little moderate towards the end of the week.

2 Tropical Waves are on the way with the first wave passing today and tomorrow. This is creating some showers over Guyana and Venezuela but introducing drier air until the next insignificant tropical wave arrives later in the week.

So I am predicting a calm and sunny week with occasional showers … there may even be a day without showers and the only spoiler is the ITCZ.

I would suggest that you make the most of this because the energy and sea temperatures are increasing and I would expect a few rain events in September / October.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:10 am

WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
IT HAS TO GET BETTER !


My predictions last week could not have been more wrong although I did mitigate my predictions with the warning that the ITCZ could spoil it … and it did … totally.

The ITCZ is currently across Guyana, Venezuela and Columbia. During last week, a procession of thunderstorms developed over Guyana spinning off to the north west and moving over T&T, Barbados and Grenada, not to mention the Dutch Antilles. Ironically there was more thunderstorm activity over the south east Caribbean than there was over the rainforests of South America.

Flooding has been reported widely but the focus has been on flood reports in Trinidad where localised Tropical Storm-like conditions have been reported. Over the course of last week the satellite loops have shown these thunderstorms brewing up quickly and becoming quite violent in places … this is typical ITCZ weather.

Today a tropical wave is passing through and enhancing this weather activity but the effects are felt locally so some areas will miss the worst of the storms.

The ITCZ's position has not changed much over the week but this does not necessarily mean that this disturbed weather will continue because it is impossible to predict whether the ITCZ will be calm or active but the 'flash-point' remains the coast of Guyana and inland towards Venezuela.

So I would say that my predictions for this week are the same as last week but with stronger emphasis on the risks of thunderstorm activity.

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