2019 Hurricane Season

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Paul Tallet
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2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue May 21, 2019 10:13 pm

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA

With regret, I am opening up the 2019 Hurricane Season 10 days earlier than intended.

Not that anything bad has happened … it's the NHC's fault, designating a Tropical Storm (Andrea) off the east coast of Florida, now the ex-Tropical Storm, way out to sea and unlikely to cause any problems apart from maybe some rain and winds in Bermuda.

So as soon as the NHC start naming Storms I have no option other than to start the 2019 Hurricane Season Forum off just to be sure that the first named storm of this season gets a mention. A to Z with no gaps.

As I have indicated in the Liquid Sunshine forum over the last 2 weeks, changes are becoming very clear in the weather patterns with an early start for Tropical Waves but, most of all, is the high sea temperature. This does not mean that there will be more Storms and Hurricanes … it means that what Hurricane and Storms that find the right dessert menu could become stronger or more extreme.

The dessert menu needs more than high sea temperatures, it needs a number of other factors such as upper atmospheric winds (going in the right direction) and instability, all of these factors need to be in place and a combination will set off big storms. A risk is a drought

Is this because of human contributions to global warming? … No, we are just polluting and, although this is a contributing factor, it can only boost natural warming to a minor extent … the earth has been hot and cold for thousands of years and has it's own process of handling it's temperature.

I must emphasise that Tobago rarely gets a direct hit from a major hurricane … Tobago's experiences are often associated with Tropical Waves and the occasional developing Storm that passes or reaches Storm or Hurricane status after it has passed over Tobago.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jun 02, 2019 7:31 am

TROUBLE BREWING IN THE GULF

The NHC are issuing advisories on a disturbance in the south of the Gulf of Mexico and currently give this system a 60% chance of development.

If the system develops then it will be called 'Barry'.

Whatever happens, Tropical Storm or Hurricane status is likely to be short-lived although this brings a substantial rain threat to south east Mexico.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:28 pm

BARRY NOT YET
SIGNIFICANT RAINS FOR EAST MEXICO, TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA


As I have said in previous years, it does not take development into a Tropical Storm or Hurricane to deliver extreme weather.

The NHC has downgraded the status of this disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and, although Tropical Storm conditions are now less likely, those in east Mexico, Texas and west Louisiana should take note of this system that will bring heavy rains to these areas that are (locally) already saturated with rain from the tropical surges that have already brought the extreme conditions from the south to the central US in recent weeks.

This weather event is likely to take place over the next several days so not a good time for the north west Caribbean.

In the south east of the Caribbean it is a little unpredictable with more rain streamers shooting up from the South American rain forests, bringing very heavy and sporadic rainfall and, Tobago, you are included in this.

An unsettled week ahead.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:42 am

TROUBLE BREWING IN THE (US) DEEP SOUTH?

A very rare development is occurring in eastern Alabama. The NHC has locked onto it and is issuing advisories giving the disturbance a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.

The disturbance is expected to move south over warm Gulf waters, perhaps just off the east coast of Florida. Where it decides to go is not really known but the weather models are suggesting a turn to the west and some trouble for other US states, perhaps Texas for example.

I sense that this could be a learner. It may come to little but it is very rare for this to happen unless it is the remnants of a previous storm.

Worth keeping an eye on.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:13 pm

IT'S KICKING OFF IN THE SOUTHERN US STATES … AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS WARMING UP

I have been watching this curious disturbance very closely and I have been consulting weather models on the future of this system over the next 7 to 14 days.

The NHC has raised chances of development within 5 days from 60% to 80% … this means that these percentages are wagering on the prospects of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane to develop.

I believe that this is a secondary factor behind the prospect of heavy rains … the potential rainfall is more important.

The models agree that the disturbance will move south and over the cooking seas of the Gulf. This can generate storm development but whether it does or not is, in my opinion, academic.

The rains that this disturbance can generate could be record breaking for the states of Louisiana, Alabama and Texas and, yes, I have Katrina in mind ... don't forget that Katrina's storm surge was the big factor ... not the rains.

The prospects of a westerly track are enhanced by a strengthening high over Bermuda that will kick the disturbance away from Florida but the outflow from this disturbance could also bring heavy rains to the Carolina's.

However, away from the Bermuda High, the upper atmosphere is still and this raises the question of how quickly will this disturbance move. Not much … so there is a serious rainfall event on the cards here.

It could meander between the cooking seas of the Gulf of Mexico and multiple landfalls along the southern coastal states of the US ... progress is likely to be slow and we are talking about more than inches of rainfall, there could be a foot or 2 of rainfall in some places over the course of the next week or 2.

The NHC are focused on Storm development. Those living in lowland areas of Texas, Alabama and Louisiana (and possibly the Carolinas and extreme western and northern parts of Florida) need to refer to their local weather stations and observe extreme weather warnings carefully.

I do not make posts of this type lightly … I am very serious about this, so if you live in these areas you need to sort your life out and get ready.


Elsewhere in the Caribbean ...

A 5th tropical wave has entered the tropical Atlantic in the last 24 hours. Saharan dust could limit the impacts of the 4 other tropical waves to some extent so the rainfall impacts over the eastern Caribbean (including Tobago) could diminish but don't count on it.

The tropical Atlantic is warming up while the Pacific is cooling ... thats all I need to know to predict that the trend of Storm development in the tropical Atlantic is going to be quite lively this season and I sense that I will be suffering from sleep deprivation during August and particularly September and October this year when the Hurricane Season traditionally peaks.

Have no sympathy for me ... I enjoy watching the tropics and I will keep you informed as best I can.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:13 pm

BARRY?

Due to the areas at risk, the NHC has taken the unusual step of opening Tropical Weather Discussions and Forecasts on a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that has not yet (officially) become a Tropical Storm or Hurricane.

Well … if there is a bad ass Storm approaching Tobago within the next 48 hours … no I won't say it, it would get me into trouble I guess!! :mrgreen:

Anyway, my post a couple of days ago stressed the importance of the rains over the southern US States. Any Storm or Hurricane development is going to affect a very small area … the rains are going to affect a very wide area and that is what I think is most important and of more concern and I wish that the general media could convey this clearly.

It's no good causing an evacuation of a small localised area because of a potential Hurricane … apart from simply mentioning that the rains could be heavy, much wider areas need to be informed of the rainfall threat.

The general media are picking up the Hurricane tag and there is not enough emphasis on the flooding potential of this disturbance which could hang around and create direct and indirect impacts over a wide area of the southern US for at least a week.

In my last post I suggested that over 1 foot of rain could fall in some areas in the southern US ... that's not potential flooding, it's an absolute certainty … and it still stands as far as I am concerned.

The most recent updates indicate that the disturbance could move out into the cooking Gulf sea and this is where the Hurricane threat applies. The disturbance is bound to develop if the sea surface temperatures reach 30 degress Celsius.

But as I say … the biggest risk is the rain totals widely over the southern US.

By the weekend you will see.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:47 am

HURRICANE SEASON HOTTING UP

A tropical wave is about to bring heavy rains to Trinidad, Tobago, and most of the islands up to Barbados. This is a potent wave that could develop further when it passes into the Caribbean Sea.

Next up is the tropical wave that I referred to in my Liquid Sunshine post last Sunday. I was expecting a depression to form along this wave and it sure has. The depression is turning and trying to develop but this system is up against dry Saharan air. Not a threat as yet but one to keep an eyeball on.

Tropical Storm Barry has not yet caused too much trouble due to northerly shear keeping the main rain bands away from the southern US coast, however Barry is brewing up some explosive thunderstorms over on it's north west quadrant and this is where the predicted rainfall damage is most likely to occur … in the Mississippi basin (hope I spelt that right!).

As I have said before, I don't think Hurricane status will make Barry any worse and this possibility is diminishing as Barry fights the wind shear. Barry will pack a big punch in the form of rainfall.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Hugh S » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:29 pm

:lol: =D>

8)

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:21 am

BARRY, BLOB, COOKING SEAS AND DRY AIR

Hello Hugh and thank you for watching.

Barry is about to make landfall in Louisiana. The Storm is getting more organised despite the strong northerly shear. There is some speculation that Hurricane status could be achieved but I don't think that makes much difference because hurricane conditions would be over a very small area and it is the widespread and heavy rains that I expect will bring the biggest problems. Barry's slow movement is another factor that will contribute to the rainfall totals over the next 48 - 72 hours.

Meanwhile, back in the deep tropical Atlantic, the NHC are still issuing conservative advisories on the depression I have been tracking since it left Africa. The cooking seas are way above average in terms of sea surface temperature and this is an indication that a lot more Storms could develop out here than expected.

However, right now there is a thick blanket of dry Saharan dust right across the Atlantic and it is encompassing this new development. NHC give this a 20% chance of developing into a Tropical Storm or Hurricane in the next 5 days. I personally can't see it unless the dry factor recedes but whatever happens I think there is a risk of rain for Tobago from this system early next week.

I will keep an eyeball locked onto it and post updates if any are required.

Another rather potent wave is moving off Africa … I don't give any tropical waves much chance of development while this dry Saharan dust loiters around the tropical Atlantic.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Jul 13, 2019 4:24 pm

BARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE

Whoooopie - Dooo !! :mrgreen:

Watch the US Media frenzy and utterly unjustified comparisons with Hurricane Katrina.

The Blob in the tropical Atlantic is fading.

Apart from Barry there is no excitement and I can get back to my gardening.

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