2019 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:34 am

DORIAN IS BECOMING UNPREDICTABLE

I am getting a little twitchy about Dorian, fledgling storms such as this are commonly erratic in their behaviour and, as I said in my last post, can bring some unpleasant surprises.

Yesterday, Dorian wobbled north and the Model consensus was a track to the north west, however the storm has visibly reverted to a westerly track. The response of the NHC was to alter the track to the south by 30 miles … this is not much, it should be more.

The latest track forecasts now take Dorian right over Barbados and missing Puerto Rico, hitting Hispaniola instead (Haiti beware).

But this track also takes Dorian closer to Tobago so this means that there is a better chance of some rain from Dorian for Tobago, a breeze and possibly heavy surf.

But then Dorian could suddenly switch northwards again.

One big factor here is the amount of moderately dense dry air that surrounds Dorian to the west, north and east and this is likely to limit strengthening and could cause more fatal impacts on the storm if it's centre is breached. There is also a very small possibility that the smoke from the colossal Amazon fires (more on this in today's Liquid Sunshine update) could impact the Storm but this is more likely after the storm has moved into the Caribbean Sea.

So it's early days yet such a short period of time to be ready for this threat.

Barbados has just issued a Hurricane Watch.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:31 pm

DORIAN STRENGTHENS IN ADVERSITY
TRACK IS STILL TRENDING SOUTH
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR GRENADA


The sea temperature is perfect, the wind shear is perfect, but the final ingredient (dry air) is not perfect and this is likely to prevent Dorian strengthening much more.

A very large convective burst took place this afternoon but this has since died down before, I am sure, another convective burst occurs as Dorian tries to close it's circulation and repel the dry air … and the air is going to get a little drier before the Storm reaches the Windwards.

After moving into the Caribbean Sea there is considerable doubt about what could happen because there is significant south-westerly wind shear ahead and Dorian's survival could depend on the storm tracking more to the north as soon as it arrives in the Caribbean Sea.

Throughout today the track has continually nudged southwards. Of course this means the track is getting closer to Tobago.

I believe that Dorian will follow a track south of Barbados and the centre of the storm will be south of Barbados late Monday night and will clear the Windwards by late Tuesday afternoon.

The impacts for Tobago are likely thundery rain. Dorian is starting to suck in some rain bands to the south of the storm as far away as the coast of Guyana so I would not be surprised to see a couple of rain bands pass over Tobago late Monday and into Tuesday. Some of these bands could drop quite a lot of rain so there is a minor risk of disruption.

Meanwhile, back in the UK, the weather is glorious.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:33 am

DORIAN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
STILL TRENDING SOUTH
IMPACTS FOR TOBAGO


Firstly, if you are in Tobago please do not be alarmed. This is a Tropical Storm with sustained winds of up to 60 mph that will be miles away from Tobago. I expect a strong breeze although there could be localised squalls and tropical storm conditions.

The rain risk is increasing and I expect very heavy periods of rain within 12 hours and overnight with thunderstorms. I expect a second period of rain about 6 to 9 hours after Dorian has passed, this will be from a persistent rain band to the south and east of the Storm.

The sea will pick up but not to any large extent.

This is by no means anywhere near the worst weather Tobago has faced.


Dorian has been wobbling quite markedly. As an amateur, I find it more difficult to locate the centre of the storm than the rocket scientists at the NHC but the main rainfall and thunderstorms around the south of the storm have extended outwards significantly and I sense that either this or a southern wobble of the centre to the south is basically down to the fact that dry air surrounds the storm to the west, north and east and it is simply trying to develop in the most friendly local it can find.

There are another 12 - 15 hours to go and a lot can happen in that time.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:57 pm

DORIAN'S OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACHING TOBAGO

I think Tobago time is about midday now. If you go to Flagstaff Hill you may be able to see the Storm clouds gathering to the east.

The rain should start falling in the next 2 hours. It could be a little stop and start and there will be some heavy bursts and possible squalls.

So that's it until maybe late tomorrow morning but don't forget that another rain band is following this storm, probably to spoil the sunset on Tuesday evening.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:41 pm

DORIAN'S THREAT DECREASING FOR TOBAGO
THREAT INCREASING FOR THE NORTH EAST CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA


This is what young storms are like … the outer rain-bands were just touching St Giles Island yesterday and after a couple of hours I came back to check how much further it had advanced and it hadn't touched Tobago at all.

Dorian had a major wobble to the north and even missed Grenada. Apart from a few showers that was it.

But I am right about the trailing rain-band. That is bringing some large yet widespread showers and thunderstorms to the south-east Caribbean and it appears that it is sucking up some moisture from the rainforests of Venezuela. Could be a wet night tonight.

Dorian is reminding me of Irma a couple of years ago. The storm has had difficulties with dry Saharan air that has restricted development but it has fought against this and, right now, looks much healthier having blown a gaping hole in the dust layer.

The next challenges for Dorian are (1) south westerly wind shear and (2) large islands such as Puerto Rico and again these obstacles should restrict any serious development … the east Caribbean should be thankful for these sets of opposition to a Storm that could have (and still could) become a major disaster.

The latest forecasts indicate a track between or over the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, a tour along the length of the Bahamas and then Florida, possible landfall in Fort Lauderdale as a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm?

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:22 pm

HURRICANE DORIAN DEFIES LOGIC
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE


I was initially shocked to see Dorian suddenly change track to the north just before the storm could have unleashed copious amounts of rain on Tobago … Dorian has gone a step further and taken a more north-easterly track to go to the east side of Puerto Rico … AND STRENGTHEN.

Once again we have a classic case that could adorn any prospective meteorologist's thesis and provide more knowledge to the weather professionals and amateurs (like me!) in the behaviour of these wonderous storms.

Dorian has completely obliterated the dry Saharan dust layer that has dogged it from it's beginnings in the tropical Atlantic and all the way through the windward Islands.

The future track, if it can be taken seriously, is a very kind crescent around the east of the Bahamas before turning back westwards for an unpleasant engagement along the west coast of Florida, as a major hurricane.

Ahead of Dorian are welcoming warm seas, low wind shear and less dry air … these are the 3 ingredients required to accommodate major hurricanes and I expect Dorian to get bigger and stronger as it approaches the east coast of Florida.

Or maybe it won't.

Updates to follow ...
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:23 pm

HURRICANE DORIAN STRENGTHENING
TRACK TRENDING SOUTH
COULD DORIAN REACH THE GULF?


Dorian has come fully packed with a wide range of surprises.

Originally this was a tropical storm not expected to survive it's journey much beyond the windwards islands. The storm has reached hurricane status, will reach major hurricane status and has made some rather sharp twists and turns in it's track, so much so that the models and the hurricane experts are very obviously cautious about the future track and strength of this deceptive storm.

I don't blame them … pretty much anything could happen.

The next twist is a possible southerly trend raising concerns for the northern Bahamas and southern Florida. Other theories take Dorian on a more northerly track towards northern Florida. Of the 2 possibilities the southerly track is of most concern, giving Dorian the option of entering the Gulf, slowing down and possibly re-strengthening to threaten the Gulf coasts of the US … many comparisons are being made to Katrina here.

I won't go into anymore details other than to say that only minor factors in the general weather patterns to the north of Dorian will determine which way Dorian will go. Minor cause - massive effect!

It's all up in the air … and I mean that quite literally so maybe some more clarity will develop tomorrow …

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:00 am

DORIAN A MAJOR HURRICANE
SIGNIFICANT TRACK SWITCH TO THE NORTH
HAZARDS FOR NORTH WEST BAHAMAS AND THE WHOLE OF FLORIDA


With most Hurricanes there is always some scatter in the track forecast but Dorian has taken this to new levels.

In my last post the models were trending south with the prospect of Dorian crossing the Florida peninsula and entering the Gulf. 24 hours later, Dorian is expected to turn sharply north before it reaches Florida … I don't think I have experienced such a swing in track forecasting before although the very same Dorian took everyone by surprise earlier this week when it tracked east of Puerto Rico instead of west of Puerto Rico.

Anyway, assuming the latest model consensus is right, the north west Bahamas and the whole coast of eastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina (in fact, the whole of the eastern US coast) is in for a proper bashing this week.

This is because Dorian is now a Category 4 Hurricane and still strengthening. Also it would not be unreasonable to suggest that Dorian could be a Category 5 Hurricane very shortly. Dorian's eye is clear to see on sat loops and the only mercy that Dorian could give to it's future victims is a timely eyewall recycle as it passes over the regions I have mentioned above.

Another big factor here is Dorian's speed. The storm is going to slow down and this presents potentially catastrophic flooding problems, however as the eye is not (yet) expected to reach the mainland of Florida and move north almost parallel to the eastern US coastline then these areas could be spared rainfall volumes of +10 inches and probably take just 2 - 6 inches instead.

Whatever, significant damage and fatalities are imminent, the international media has begun reporting on this major weather event and all we can do is watch the disaster unfold while I hope all those in the risk areas do all they can to protect themselves and prepare for this violent and unpredictable storm.

No doubt there will be some changes, hopefully for the better.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:07 pm

2 OTHER DISTURBANCES

Hurricane Dorian will be dominating the Weather and Media reports over the next week but the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are starting to fizz with energy as we approach the peak of the 2019 Hurricane Season.

Apart from Dorian we have 2 other disturbances that the NHC is issuing advisories on …

In the Gulf just off the western tip of Cuba is a new disturbance is moving west towards the southern Gulf. The NHC are giving this a 20% chance of development within the next 5 days.

In the tropical Atlantic another disturbance has moved off the coast of west Africa and is just to the south east of the Cabo Verde Islands. This could pose problems for the southern islands, bringing rain and strong winds however the NHC are giving this a 60% chance of development within the next 5 days.

I doubt if the latter of these 2 disturbances will affect land anywhere else because it's track is mostly northwards but if it curves back east then it could affect some European areas in the future … early days.

I will post updates as and when there are further developments.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:09 am

DORIAN THE DEVIANT
FORECASTERS WAITING FOR THE TURN


Prospects for Florida and the US east coast are hanging on the timing of Dorian's turn to the north … at what point could this happen?

The only certainty is that the north west Bahamas are in for very dangerous conditions as Dorian rolls towards them on a dead straight westerly track.

Dorian is following this route because a strong ridge of high pressure is to the north of the storm and keeping it from spinning north.

The consensus of the weather models is expecting the turn to the north as the ridge of high pressure deteriorates, allowing Dorian to move into the space and move north.

2 days ago Dorian was expected to move across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf.

Yesterday Dorian was expected to make landfall on the Florida coast and turn to the north.

This morning Dorian was going to turn north before reaching Florida.

Tonight it seems that the ridge of high pressure is holding out a little longer than expected and Dorian's turn could be later and closer to Florida.

The trending indicates that tropical storm conditions could affect Florida or possibly hurricane conditions could brush the coast without a full-on landfall. 10 to 30 miles difference in the turn may seem small but this actually represents the difference between hell breaking out in Florida and the US east coast … or not.

It is that close and such a small adjustment could make a considerable difference.

Strength ... another dilemma. I think Dorian is Cat 5. The hurricane is so well presented on the sat loops and with a magnificent and clear eye and a strong closed circulation. As a weather enthusiast I can only admire this storm that was written off before it reached Barbados as a tropical storm ... Perhaps only Hurricane Wilma back in 2005 looked as good.

However Dorian is wrapping a few large rain-bands around it's centre and the only hope I could give the north west Bahamas is that these bands begin to form another larger eye which will weaken Dorian temporarily and give those directly in it's path a longer respite period from the hurricane wind field which spans (currently) about 70 miles across the storm. A 30 mile wide eye moving at 8 mph could be crucial under the circumstances and allow up to about 4 hours of recovery before the hurricane force winds return, blowing in the opposite direction.

I wish I could give more positive news.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:28 pm

EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL IN THE NORTH WEST BAHAMAS

This is quite shocking … sustained wind speeds of 185 mph and 220 mph gusts … imagine that.

Dorian's eye (or centre) is passing over Abacos and is in the process of a potential annihilation of the north west Bahamas right now and continuously until Tuesday morning before a gradual improvement in weather conditions. The Bahamas have not experienced a storm of this ferocity in recorded history, let alone enduring such sustained meteorological violence for 48 hours or more.

There are still uncertainties of how Florida will be affected by this storm and, while the Bahamas event is going on, the US media and various hurricane experts seem more interested in the potential Florida and other US impacts … I am losing interest.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:59 pm

DEVIANT DORIAN DESTROYING THE NORTH WEST BAHAMAS
THE ATLANTIC EXPLODES WITH ENERGY
A ROUND UP OF 5 TROPICAL DISTURBANCES


Where does one start … I will go from west to east and not necessarily in the NHC's numerical order …


Disturbance 2 I have reported on recently, is in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico and moving west towards north east Mexico. The NHC are giving this disturbance a 70% chance of development into a Tropical Depression / Storm / Hurricane within 5 days.


Hurricane Dorian has slowed down to less than walking pace at 1 mph and this is bad for the Grande Bahamas because, obviously, if the storm is hardly moving then you get the storm surge, lashing rain and sustained wind speeds in excess of 150 mph for longer. Dorian has been downgraded to Cat 4 which is academic. The lack of movement will cause some weakening but barely enough to make any significant improvements to the medieval levels of punishment this storm is wreaking on these poor Islands. The Bahamas will need help to recover from this and I understand that multiple relief missions are underway but there is little these missions can do until Dorian gets out of the way.

Dorian is expected to turn slowly to the north and, since my previous post, the trend has continued to inch westward to potentially affect the east coast of Florida and there is some possibility of a landfall … it will be a close call. If Dorian moves north up the east coast of the US the most damage could come from high levels of storm surge on the north side of the storm as the winds whip the sea up a few metres to inundate low lying coastal areas … this will be all the way up the coast as far as Cape Cod where an eventual landfall is expected. So most will know about Dorian before the actual Storm gets there.


Disturbance 3 that I have also reported on before is south of Bermuda and tracking north towards Bermuda. The NHC are giving this a 40% chance of development into a Tropical Depression / Storm / Hurricane within 5 days.


Disturbance 1. Again this disturbance has been around for a few days and brought some rains and squalls to the southern Cabo Verde Islands. It is now west of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving north west and probably going nowhere … there is the potential that this disturbance, if it develops, could curve back to the east to affect the Faro Islands or Canary Islands … even Europe. The NHC are giving this one a 90% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression / Storm / Hurricane within 5 days. 80% within 48 hours.


Disturbance 4. This is a new one just about to leave the coast of west Africa and the NHC are already giving this disturbance a 40% chance of development to a Tropical Depression / Storm / Hurricane within 5 days.


Disturbance 5 is happening in my skull cavity as I try to get enough sleep around my work and reporting on an absolute explosion of energy in the tropical Atlantic so I am off to cook for my nurse who may neglect me if I don't feed her … ' NURSE ! … get the plates out'.

I am sure updates will follow ...

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:55 pm

DORIAN EXPANDING
YESTERDAY'S DISTURBANCE 2 NOW TROPICAL STORM FERNAND
BERMUDA ATTACKED FROM THE SOUTH
CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST TROPICAL ATLANTIC INCREASING


Perhaps I should do what I did yesterday and go from west to east as follows:-


Tropical Storm Fernand is newly formed and has limited mortality as it approaches the north eastern Mexico coast with landfall expected by midday on Wednesday. The biggest hazard will be rainfall.


Hurricane Dorian is only just leaving Grande Bahama and making it's predicted turn to the north. The ferocious 185 mph winds that affected the Bahamas have now moderated to about 110 mph but the wind field is expanding since a eyewall collapse. Further weakening is expected but this hurricane is still likely to pack a punch as it hugs the eastern coastline of the US before it expires by the end of next weekend.

Due to the expansion of Dorian many parts of the coastline will experience tropical storm and/or hurricane force winds with coastal inundation very likely due to storm surge and additional flooding risks both on the coast and inland.


Disturbance 2 is moving north and closer to Bermuda. This is the least likely of all the disturbances to develop into a tropical depression / storm / hurricane but the NHC is giving this a 50% chance. I don't think that the hardy Bermudians will be too concerned about this.


Over Tobago a tropical wave has set off some very heavy rain which is affecting most of the south east Caribbean.


Disturbance 1 has, as I type, been designated Tropical Depression 8 by the NHC and is the favourite for becoming Tropical Storm Gabrielle. This depression is expected to track north west to nowhere but it is early days and I am sure some complication will develop over the next few days.


Disturbance 3 is organising itself sufficiently for the NHC to rate it for a 70% chance of development within the next 5 days.


I had a good sleep last night so the disturbance in my skull cavity has softened somewhat.

No doubt there will be some more news tomorrow.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:55 pm

DORIAN UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO EASTERN US COAST
FERNAND FLOODING NORTH EAST MEXICO
GABRIELLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE SOON
PLUS 2 OTHER DISTURBANCES


West to east? Same again …


Fernand has been downgraded to a tropical depression but remains a flood risk for north east Mexico with the risk of landslides.


Deviant Dorian weakened a little earlier today and then re-strengthened so winds are sustained at 110 mph. The wind field continues to expand and the hurricane is getting very close to the US east coast with a landfall possible for South Carolina and North Carolina.

Video Footage of the Bahamas makes one wonder how anyone survived. I recall a documentary that examined a specie of Lizard that inhabit some islands in the Bahamas which are prone to hurricanes (obviously not normally Dorian strength) and because the low lying islands were often overwhelmed by storm surges the documentary examined how these lizards survived. The answer was to throw parenthood right out of the window and bury their eggs deep into the sand so that the young would hatch into a new world after their parents had been washed away.

That pretty much sums it up … where on earth did the people of the Bahamas hide? What terrible trauma they went through is beyond my imagination … the survivors will not be the last to recall this storm. Stories and experiences of this will be passed down many generations … there will never be another Dorian, I am sure the name will be retired but not forgotten.


Disturbance 1 (formerly Disturbance 2 yesterday) has moved past a resolute Bermuda and is pushing north east. The NHC has increased the chances of development from 50% to 60%. Not sure this one is going anywhere now.


Tropical Storm Gabrielle (formerly Tropical Depression 8 yesterday) is moving north west and predicted to reach hurricane status by day 5. Who knows, there could be some interaction with Disturbance 1 but it does not look like going anywhere yet.


Disturbance 2 (formerly 3) ... now this is confusing. There is a lot of energy coming off the African coast but I sense this disturbance has been on the African mainland the last 3 days with a 70% chance of development given by the NHC. Today it is 3 instead of 2 and the chance of development is 50% … so is this the same one and, if not, what happened to the one (3) yesterday? I am an amateur and I need answers !!

Why can't we have sequential numbers for disturbances like we do for tropical depressions ?!?

Dear NHC … Please can we also have a maximum of 3 disturbances and storms at a time just so that I can keep up … it's doing my head in.

On that note … I need a rest and I hope that there will be less activity tomorrow.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:35 pm

DEVIANT DORIAN ATTACKING THE CAROLINAS
PLUS OTHER DISTURBANCES


From west to east again?


Firstly, Fernand has gone but could still bring heavy rains to northern Mexico.


Major Hurricane Dorian is bringing localised hurricane conditions to the Carolinas and there is a real possibility that Dorian could make landfall here before the storm speeds off to the Arctic zones.


Disturbance 1 is not likely to develop as it moves slowly away and into the middle of the temperate Atlantic Ocean.


Disturbance 2 is a new disturbance just east to the northern windward Islands of the Caribbean. This is moving away to the north west and should avoid the Caribbean altogether. 10% chance of development says the NHC.


Tropical Storm Gabrielle could become a hurricane if it last out the next 48 hours and there is a real risk that strong wind shear could kill it.


Disturbance 3 has now left the African coast and bringing bad weather to the Cabo Verde Islands. MHC give this a chance of 60% to develop.

That's it folks ... a quick update for a change.


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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:11 pm

DEVIANT DORIAN THREATENS CANADA
GABRIELLE GOING FOR NORTHERN EUROPE
NEW DISTURBANCE TO WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN


From west to east again …


Hurricane Dorian is expected to affect portions of east Canada today having caused a number of problems along the whole eastern coast of the US. Dorian has a few days left as a hurricane and is likely to be absorbed into the Atlantic jet-stream by mid-week (see Gabrielle below).


The Bahamas. The islands affected appear to be carrying out total evacuations. The footage of the damage made me wonder if anyone could have survived the annihilation and this has made the affected areas uninhabitable and prone to disease. This is a real game-changer both for the Bahamas and the people … it will take some time to count the fatalities as many 100's are missing.


Tropical Strom Gabrielle. This storm has had problems in it's development but it keeps coming back. It is expected to turn sharply from it's current north westerly track to the north east and could be very close to the remnants of Dorian by the end of this week, tracking between Iceland and the north of Scotland.


Disturbance 1 (formerly Disturbance 3 in my previous post). This is another potential Caribbean problem. It's early days but it needs watching with the NHC giving it a 70% chance of development in 5 days. It is currently on a latitude of 15 north which suggests that the southern half of the Caribbean is not at threat, however I have seen enough over the years to know that this speculation should not be relied on.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 08, 2019 11:22 am

DORIAN NOW POWERFUL EX-TROPICAL LOW
DORIAN & GABRIELLE HEADING FOR UK/NORTHERN EUROPE
PLUS 2 OTHER DISTURBANCES


Again, from west to east …


A disturbance north east of the windwards is being given a 20% chance of development as it tracks slowly towards the northern Bahamas. Even if it does not develop this could bring more rain and hamper the recovery process but it will be a piece of cake compared to the destruction caused by Dorian.


Dorian is now causing problems in north east Canada. Although an ex-tropical storm, Dorian is still powerful and bringing localised hurricane conditions before the storm turns eastwards and speeds across the north Atlantic.

Both Dorian and Tropical Storm Gabrielle could converge near the UK by Thursday. It looks like Dorian will provide energy towards a powerful depression to the north west of the UK with Gabrielle most likely to bring bad weather to the southern UK, maybe France. It's a long way off and it would be unwise to take any predictions about Dorian seriously when considering that it did not follow expectations several times during it's path through the Caribbean.


The NHC has been issuing advisories on another disturbance in the east tropical Atlantic. 3 days ago the chances were 70% but they have now reduced to 40% risk of development. Of course it is good news if the chances of development reduce but this disturbance needs to be watched by interests in the Caribbean because it is currently tracking west / south west. Even if this disturbance fails it could arrive towards the end of the week as an open wave in the Caribbean, bringing widespread rain.


The last 2 weeks have seen an explosion of activity in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. It is quite rare to see 5 or 6 areas of potential storm development. But we are close to the peak of the hurricane season and there are just under 3 months to go.

Conditions are good, the sea is warmer than normal and the Saharan Dust layer has retreated back towards Africa ... it's not over yet.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:57 pm

DORIAN GONE BUT IT'S ENERGY APPROACHES NORTHERN EUROPE
GABRIELLE BRINGING TROPICAL WARMTH TO THE SOUTHERN UK
3 OTHER DISTURBANCES


'Oh it's only an ex-hurricane' says the Met Office forecaster as he shows how the arrival of Dorian's remnants could impact the weather for the UK on Wednesday. Well, the main thing is that it will be tracking well to the north of Scotland but it will be a large depression bringing windy conditions and rain.

Next is Tropical Storm Gabrielle … an 'ex-tropical storm' spinning around the Dorian circulation and pepping up the rain across the northern half of the UK and bringing warmth and humidity to the southern UK. It is quite common for ex-tropical storms to visit the UK in the autumn and they can bring very warm tropical air and you can smell it and recognise it if you have been privileged enough to visit the tropics … it is a sense that is difficult to describe.

Anyway, back to the tropics …


The disturbance north of the Caribbean has a very low chance of development but it is tracking towards the northern Bahamas and Florida. There is no change to the remarks I made about this disturbance in yesterday's post.

The same applies to the disturbance in the mid-Atlantic … it's chances of development are diminishing but it still needs watching and could arrive in the Caribbean as an open tropical wave by the weekend.

Behind it is a new disturbance just departing the African coast. This one is speeding and could catch up with the depression in the mid-Atlantic so this will be interesting to watch over the next 3 days.

Further updates to follow …

Regards
Paul Tallet
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:53 pm

DISTURBANCE UPDATE


From West to East …

The disturbance that is now over the southern Bahamas has begun showing stronger signals in terms of development with the NHC giving a much higher 60% chance of development into a Tropical Storm / Hurricane. The forecasted track takes this system over the areas affected by Dorian with rainfall being the most likely damage factor. The Bahamas would normally have this system for afternoon tea but they are in a position of weakness following Dorian's attack and any further rains could hamper recovery from Dorian.

A disturbance is closing in on the Windward Islands but it's chances of development are diminishing (10% chance according to the NHC).

However, another disturbance south of the Cabo Verde Islands has increasing chances (30%) of development and will catch up with the other disturbance I have mentioned.

So … whatever happens it does look like a wet weekend for the Lesser Antilles and most of the Windward Islands, Tobago included.

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Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:50 pm

MORE PROBLEMS FOR THE BAHAMAS
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS FOR THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND


The disturbance in the southern Bahamas is getting it's act together and the NHC has given it an 80% chance of development and suggests that it will be issuing advisories on a tropical storm soon.

This could be bad news for the northern Bahamas that have already been flattened by Dorian. This development is not currently expected to match Dorian in terms of strength and ferocity but the biggest doubts are about this system's track … will it follow Dorian's path or will it switch to the west, cross southern Florida and end up as a messy rainmaker in the Gulf?

The answers to this are likely to come in the next 24 hours because much of the uncertainty is dependent on when this system achieves a closed circulation and where.


The same applies to the other disturbance speeding across the tropical Atlantic towards the windward islands. Will it develop? NHC are giving a 40% chance. Could it develop before it reaches the Caribbean? If it does then the northern windwards will be in for a storm at the weekend. If it doesn't then the rainfall will be more widespread.

The other disturbance I referred to in my previous post has no chance of development but it will bring rain to the northern windwards by tomorrow.

There are many uncertainties so I will be posting an update.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

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