2020 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
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Paul Tallet
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

HURRICANE SALLY UPDATE

Generally good news although the change in impacts will be marginal.

Sally has started weakening and has been unable to complete an eye wall over the southern quadrant of it's centre. Another contributing factor could be the sea temperature which the NHC reports has fallen by 2 degrees. I mentioned this possibility in my last post because if Sally is going to be stationary or slow moving it will be churning up and cooling the sea surface below the hurricane.

Sally is going to be a rain and storm surge event so any strengthening or weakening is unlikely to make much difference to the impacts along the Mississippi, Alabama and Florida coasts. Wind speeds have been declining and that would seem to be the only positive factor.

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Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
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Paul Tallet
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

SALLY; PAULETTE;TEDDY; VICKY AND MORE

Again I will focus more on the threats ...


Sally is now weakening rapidly having eventually made landfall. After my post last night the hurricane strengthened slightly but thgis is rather academic because the rainfall has been the biggest threat from Sally and this is going to cause more problems as the storm impacts most of the eastern US States.

Paulette and Teddy. The link between these 2 systems is Bermuda. Paulette gave Bermuda a pounding and is now extra-tropical, however this could be a bad year for Bermuda because it looks like Hurricane Teddy could pay a visit on Monday or get really close. Teddy is expected to be a major hurricane but there is a chance that it could weaken before reaching Bermuda.

Bay of Campeche. This is not a very new disturbance as it has meandered around the Gulf all this week but it seems to have found a good spawning area in the southern Gulf. The NHC refer to it as Disturbance 1 and give it a 70% chance of development. Like Sally, the system is moving slowly and poses a threat to the Gulf.

Disturbance 2 south of the Cabo Verde Islands is cranking up with a 70% rating from the NHC. It currently poses a threat to the Caribbean unless it does a 'teddy' and veers north before it gets there.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
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Paul Tallet
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Posts: 3611
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

HURRICANE TEDDY; TROPICAL STORMS BETA & WILFRED AND OTHER DISTURBANCES

The 2020 hurricane season has been the most active since 2005 as this is the first time since then that the 21 names of the alphabet have been used up and we now move onto the Greek Alphabet.

Over the last 2 weeks there has been widespread activity and this has reduced seas surface temperatures particularly in locations where hurricanes and tropical storms have passed so this can have a weakening effect, coupled with other localised factors such as dry air or wind shear, as is typically the case for Hurricane Teddy.

Hurricane Teddy is a powerful storm that is increasing in size and moving north west towards the area around Bermuda (eta ... Sunday night / Monday morning) that has already had a direct impact from Hurricane Paulette (which is now re-energizing just west of the Azores). The positives for Bermuda are (1) that the global models are trending the track to the east which means that Bermuda should (I hope) avoid a direct strike and instead be affected by tropical storm conditions away from Teddy's centre and (2) the sea temperatures are cooler in Hurricane Paulette's wake.

But it does not end here as Teddy is expected to move towards the Canada coastline by Wednesday as a powerful hurricane transitioning into an extra-tropical storm and it's size will have increased giving the prospects of widespread impacts. There is little disagreement between the forecasting models and the size of Teddy on arrival in Canada will make the centre rather academic.

Tropical Storm Beta is a very unpredictable proposition for most of the Gulf coasts as it meanders around and slowly strengthens to hurricane status. The most popular predictions are of a potential landfall in Texas (Monday / Tuesday) but complications go from there with some Models predicting a sharp turn towards the north and east, dragging the impacts across the coasts towards Louisiana. If Beta does make landfall in Texas it will weaken so the worry is that landfall does not occur and that a powerful storm will affect a wider area of coastline.

Louisiana and bordering states will not escape potential flood risks whatever the outcome because Beta is pumping warm and moist tropical air up it's east side into these areas over the next 2 days.

There are no imminent threats elsewhere so I will leave it there and post updates as and when the situation changes.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
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