2020 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3623
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

HURRICANE SALLY UPDATE

Generally good news although the change in impacts will be marginal.

Sally has started weakening and has been unable to complete an eye wall over the southern quadrant of it's centre. Another contributing factor could be the sea temperature which the NHC reports has fallen by 2 degrees. I mentioned this possibility in my last post because if Sally is going to be stationary or slow moving it will be churning up and cooling the sea surface below the hurricane.

Sally is going to be a rain and storm surge event so any strengthening or weakening is unlikely to make much difference to the impacts along the Mississippi, Alabama and Florida coasts. Wind speeds have been declining and that would seem to be the only positive factor.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3623
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

SALLY; PAULETTE;TEDDY; VICKY AND MORE

Again I will focus more on the threats ...


Sally is now weakening rapidly having eventually made landfall. After my post last night the hurricane strengthened slightly but thgis is rather academic because the rainfall has been the biggest threat from Sally and this is going to cause more problems as the storm impacts most of the eastern US States.

Paulette and Teddy. The link between these 2 systems is Bermuda. Paulette gave Bermuda a pounding and is now extra-tropical, however this could be a bad year for Bermuda because it looks like Hurricane Teddy could pay a visit on Monday or get really close. Teddy is expected to be a major hurricane but there is a chance that it could weaken before reaching Bermuda.

Bay of Campeche. This is not a very new disturbance as it has meandered around the Gulf all this week but it seems to have found a good spawning area in the southern Gulf. The NHC refer to it as Disturbance 1 and give it a 70% chance of development. Like Sally, the system is moving slowly and poses a threat to the Gulf.

Disturbance 2 south of the Cabo Verde Islands is cranking up with a 70% rating from the NHC. It currently poses a threat to the Caribbean unless it does a 'teddy' and veers north before it gets there.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3623
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

HURRICANE TEDDY; TROPICAL STORMS BETA & WILFRED AND OTHER DISTURBANCES

The 2020 hurricane season has been the most active since 2005 as this is the first time since then that the 21 names of the alphabet have been used up and we now move onto the Greek Alphabet.

Over the last 2 weeks there has been widespread activity and this has reduced seas surface temperatures particularly in locations where hurricanes and tropical storms have passed so this can have a weakening effect, coupled with other localised factors such as dry air or wind shear, as is typically the case for Hurricane Teddy.

Hurricane Teddy is a powerful storm that is increasing in size and moving north west towards the area around Bermuda (eta ... Sunday night / Monday morning) that has already had a direct impact from Hurricane Paulette (which is now re-energizing just west of the Azores). The positives for Bermuda are (1) that the global models are trending the track to the east which means that Bermuda should (I hope) avoid a direct strike and instead be affected by tropical storm conditions away from Teddy's centre and (2) the sea temperatures are cooler in Hurricane Paulette's wake.

But it does not end here as Teddy is expected to move towards the Canada coastline by Wednesday as a powerful hurricane transitioning into an extra-tropical storm and it's size will have increased giving the prospects of widespread impacts. There is little disagreement between the forecasting models and the size of Teddy on arrival in Canada will make the centre rather academic.

Tropical Storm Beta is a very unpredictable proposition for most of the Gulf coasts as it meanders around and slowly strengthens to hurricane status. The most popular predictions are of a potential landfall in Texas (Monday / Tuesday) but complications go from there with some Models predicting a sharp turn towards the north and east, dragging the impacts across the coasts towards Louisiana. If Beta does make landfall in Texas it will weaken so the worry is that landfall does not occur and that a powerful storm will affect a wider area of coastline.

Louisiana and bordering states will not escape potential flood risks whatever the outcome because Beta is pumping warm and moist tropical air up it's east side into these areas over the next 2 days.

There are no imminent threats elsewhere so I will leave it there and post updates as and when the situation changes.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3623
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

GETTING QUIETER ... WHEN IS THE NEXT OUTBREAK?

Beta is weakening over Texas but the storm still has rainfall potential. Teddy is in north east Canada as a strong extra-tropical storm and will move on towards Greenland and expire.

So after the very active wave of tropical storm activity, during which there have been 5 landfalls, there is nothing at all.

Some of the calm is due to a general decrease in sea surface temperatures caused by the recent storm activity but I don't think it will take long before we see another outbreak of tropical disturbances ... there is over 2 months left to the end of this season.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3623
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

NEW DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST CARIBBEAN SEA

It has been very quiet in the Atlantic tropics over the last week but I should give a little heads-up on a system in the west Caribbean Sea, east of Belize, that the NHC have been monitoring since Sunday.

It is currently a large area of thunderstorms and has potential to start developing towards the end of this week. The NHC are giving it a 50% chance.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3623
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

HOTTING UP AGAIN

The system I mentioned in my previous post is starting to get organised in the west Caribbean Sea with the NHC giving it a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm although it seems likely that this system will pass over the Yucatan Peninsula which could restrict development before it moves into the cooking seas of the Gulf.

I have been watching another disturbance for a couple of days which is now impacting the eastern Caribbean and, yes, if you are in Tobago and wondering where all this rain is coming from ... this is it. Longer term Weather Models are developing this system and predicting a major hurricane in the central Caribbean around Jamaica and Cuba with another potential land threat on the northern Gulf coast or Florida ... as if the Gulf coast needs any more landfalls!

The NHC have started to monitor this system but are giving low expectations of development (for now) but I have a sense that this one could develop ... just a sense and absolutely nothing to do with my limited meteorological knowledge. Nevertheless, the mere fact that the Global Weather Models are developing this system is an indication of the (almost) perfect conditions in the Caribbean for storm development.

It is hotting up again.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3623
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

GAMMA AND 3 MORE DISTURBANCES

Activity is increasing now following the lull and we enter a second period of instability in the tropical atmosphere.

Tropical Storm Gamma leads the way, just off the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gamma has weakened a little as it passed over land, it may strengthen a little over the warm Gulf waters but there are shearing factors that I believe will limit the storm's potential. A strong frontal trough to the north of Gamma looks likely to steer the storm towards the extreme south of the Gulf and there is not likely to be a curve to the north until the frontal system moves out of the way.

The disturbance that I mentioned in my last post is starting to crank up with the NHC giving it an 80% chance of development. As I suggested, it will bring some heavy rainfall to Jamaica, Cuba and the Caymans although I am not sure how strong this will be and whether the Gulf Coast or Florida should be watching this ... maybe both.

Of some interest is the remnants of Hurricane Paulette in the mid-sub tropical Atlantic where it has been meandering about for several weeks. The NHC has picked this up and sees a 10% chance of redevelopment.

Another tropical wave is midway across the tropical Atlantic with an NHC chance of 20%. Behind this wave is a big inhibiting factor as the Saharan Dust Layer has extended south all the way to the equator so the main area for development should be the Caribbean and west Atlantic for the next week ... another string of Cabo Verde storms could follow when this Dust clears away.

Elsewhere there is plenty of moisture about with rainfall across the northern and south east Caribbean. Trinidad and Tobago are getting plenty of rain today.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3623
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

GAMMA AND DELTA

Tropical Storm Gamma is currently in the Gulf, slowing down and weakening as it ingests dry air. Gamma could still be there by the end of the week and there should be minimal rain impacts to Mexico due to the dry air.

The disturbance I have been watching since it passed Tobago last week has now formed into a Tropical Depression south of Jamaica. It should track towards the Cayman Islands and then over the western tip of Cuba. This takes the storm over very warm sea and this first part of it's journey could be explosive if the depression can get a good core circulation going. It will be named Delta when it reaches tropical storm status. I think it will be a hurricane before it moves into the Gulf.

The future track and strength of this beyond Cuba is a little uncertain. It could already be a hurricane by this time (Tuesday) and the sea in the Gulf is a little cooler but still easily warm enough to sustain a hurricane. A major hurricane must not be ruled out.

The storm is expected to make landfall by Friday with a low risk of impacting northern Texas or Florida being the outliers so, yet again, the already storm ravaged shores of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama are sitting in the likeliest cross hairs. This is a wide area of probability so it may not be until Tuesday / Wednesday before the cone of risk can be narrowed down.

There is a very small chance that Gamma could coax Delta a little more to the west towards a Texas landfall.

Whatever happens, there will be a strong hurricane in the Gulf and all the coastal States will need to be on alert.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3623
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

DEADLY HURRICANE DELTA

As I expected, going back over a week, Delta is now a deadly storm already at major hurricane status and predicted to reach category 4 (I think 5) before it makes landfall in the Gulf coast. I have not seen intensification of this speed in this area of the Caribbean since Hurricane Wilma back in the 2005 Hurricane Season.

The intensification of Delta may be interrupted by a brush with the land on the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula as the storm's track nudges further to the west, sparing the Cayman Islands and western Cuba from highly destructive weather conditions.

There is still some uncertainty about the longer term track in terms of which Gulf State gets a direct hit but I am expecting the hurricane to expand to a large and deadly hurricane in the Gulf later this week and bringing widespread destruction wherever it goes.

There may be a little weakening as the hurricane approaches the northern Gulf coast but don't bank on that ... there is plenty of time to evacuate the coastal areas, just get on with it ... Hurricane Delta is shaping up to be the most catastrophic hurricane this year.

Updates likely to follow.
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3623
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

MAJOR HURRICANE DELTA TO BRING CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENISULA

Weather conditions will be rapidly deteriorating over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight as Hurricane Delta brings weather violence of historical proportions.

The hurricane is currently at Category 4 level and I believe that it could reach Category 5 with winds in excess of 157 mph before landfall on the peninsula.

The interaction with land will cause slight weakening yet there is a possibility that the hurricane could go through an eyewall replacement which, if it starts before landfall, could avoid intensification to Cat 5. But this is academic for the Yucatan as Cat 4 is bad enough.

Intensification will resume in the Gulf and, as mentioned in my last post, the hurricane is likely to expand and affect a widespread area of the northern Gulf coast with Louisiana currently the unfortunate area where the centre of the hurricane is most likely to strike. Coastlines to the east including Alabama and the Florida panhandle are likely to experience storm surges as well, as the expanding wind-field on the east side of the hurricane will be pushing the seas into these areas.

East Texas is also at risk but an outlier with less impacts from storm surge on the west side of the hurricane.

Thoughts should be with those on the northern area of the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3623
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

MAJOR HURRICANE DELTA AND A NEW DISTURBANCE

The northern Yucatan was facing devastation yesterday as Hurricane Delta bore down bringing devastating Category 4/5 winds.

Then thankfully Delta weakened as it underwent an eyewall replacement which did not complete before landfall and the interaction with land made the hurricane even weaker. This is not to suggest that the impacts on the Yucatan were that much lower overall but the experience will have been less extreme.

In addition, this setback in the hurricane's development is surely of benefit to Louisiana, the final destination of this powerful storm.

Delta weakened to a Category 2 hurricane but is now re-intensifying and is already Category 3 and may reach Category 4 before landfall. The sea water along Louisiana's coast is quite cool so the hurricane may weaken (or at least not strengthen) before landfall. The other problem is the hurricane's size as Delta is expected to expand and also bring hurricane conditions to eastern Texas.

Storm surge will affect a wider area on the eastern side of the hurricane as the winds on this side will be from the south and pushing the sea up against the coast across the whole of Louisiana and as far as the coast of Mississippi.

The weather conditions in Louisiana will begin to deteriorate tonight with the subsequent weather violence occurring on Friday and overnight into Saturday before Delta weakens inland over Mississippi.

Meanwhile, a new disturbance has emerged off Africa and is heading for the Caribbean ... it is early days as always and initial indications suggest that conditions won't be right for development as it approaches the Caribbean. We shall see.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3623
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

2 NEW DISTURBANCES

Apart from Hurricane Delta it has been relatively quiet in recent weeks. Conditions for tropical storm development have become less favourable along the tropical Atlantic from Africa to the Caribbean and the focus switches to the sub-tropics and the western Caribbean Sea where the upper winds have decreased ... in fact it is almost stagnant.

Combined with cooking sea temperatures and heavy moisture levels these 2 areas are where we need to look for the most likely threats.

Accordingly, we have 2 disturbances. One in the borderline sub-tropics east of Bermuda and another one in the west Caribbean Sea.

The NHC is favouring development of the system east of Bermuda. It has been meandering around over the last week, lacking any steering currents, and seems to be coasting towards the south. It has an 80% chance of development, probably by Monday.

I am more concerned about the disturbance in the west Caribbean Sea even though the NHC is only giving it a 30% chance of development. The disturbance comprises of a number of storm cells and it will take some time to get them together and for the system to start turning. The key factor is that this area is often the prominent breeding ground for hurricanes in the later stages of each hurricane season, there is almost nothing to prevent development and this provides a potentially explosive environment providing the system can get it's act together.

So ... I guess we will be looking towards mid-week before we know how this system's future will unfold and who it might impact.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3623
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet »

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ... CARRIBBEAN DISTURBANCE FADING

The one I was watching in the western Caribbean has walked straight into a wall of wind shear and is likely to fade unless the circulation can switch back to it's original south position. This area is a hotbed at this time of the season so if this one fails I feel sure another disturbance will accept the challenge.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Epsilon has formed south east of Bermuda and it looks like this storm is going to move back north westwards towards Bermuda at hurricane strength ... by Thursday!

Poor Bermuda, one direct hit, one indirect hit and now this,

Updates to follow ...
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature
Post Reply

Return to “Weather”