2012 Hurricane Season

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Paul Tallet
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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Oct 10, 2012 3:44 pm

INVEST 98

Plenty of rain is on the way for most of the Caribbean over the next week as a Tropical Wave and associated depression approaches ... this is currently about 500 miles east of Tobago.

Early development would likely compact the system and lead to severe weather over a localised area with heavy rains probable over a wider area with the severe weather well north of Tobago.

But early development is doubtful because, although the seas are very warm and there is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, there is very strong wind shear in the eastern Caribbean ... but there can be surprises.

So, currently, the likely scenario will be of a strong Tropical Wave moving through the eastern Caribbean bringing very heavy rain and sporadic and localised strong winds to a wide area this weekend. Flooding is the main risk and wind damage is currently a secondary risk.

There is some rain ahead of this system so I don't expect the weather to be much good between now and Monday although some areas will get some nice sunshine for the next 48 hours ... it is very difficult to make precise predictions.

So ... the recommendation for Tobago is to expect adverse weather conditions and possible severe conditions from now through to Monday and particularly on Saturday and Sunday.

Enjoy your holidays.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Oct 12, 2012 9:43 am

Invest 98 is very close and the heavy rains will affect Tobago today and over the weekend.

There is an increasing risk that this system could develop into a Tropical Depression or Storm this weekend.

The NHC say the centre of the low is 30 miles south east of St Lucia but the rain bands are widespread with the worst of it to the south of the centre.

Expect intense rainfall to arrive today.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Oct 12, 2012 9:27 pm

It's looking pretty nasty now around Tobago and northwards.

Trinidad is getting heavy rain but the really heavy stuff is over Tobago.

Expect this system to be upgraded to Tropical Storm within hours ... I think it already is. The centre seems to be well north of Tobago.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Oct 23, 2012 9:32 pm

TROPICAL STORM SANDY

I thought there would be trouble in the south west Caribbean this week.

But not for Mexico ... Jamaica is on alert and eastern Cuba too. But the rains are widespread and I am a bit worried about Haiti again.

Sandy could gain Hurricane strength but the main point is the rain ... some places need it and some places not.

Meanwhile I hope Tobago and the south eastern Caribbean enjoy more the more clement weather before a few Tropical Waves drop in later this week.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:33 pm

HURRICANE SANDY

The centre of this Hurricane is about to pass over the east of Jamaica and conditions will already be deteriorating.

It seems a relatively small Hurricane but there is widespread heavy rain to the east of the main storm and this is affecting Haiti and as far east as Puerto Rico.

Sandy could cause some considerable damage in these areas as well as Jamaica and then Cuba.

Next on the agenda is what happens in the Atlantic as a scenario similar to 'The Perfect Storm' of October/November 1991 could be unfolding for the eastern US.

Much depends on how Sandy manages over the mountainous terrain of Cuba so we will know more by the weekend.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Roger D. » Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:21 am

Hey Sir Paul! It looks as though Sandy is making a push towards N.J. I thought Irene was a once in a 30 year event, but here comes Sandy. Jeeze, when I lived in Trinidad, I saw one Tropical Storm, that was Alma in the 70's, now it looks like I'm going to see a second one in N.J. What's your take on the track of this storm?

Roger D.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:33 am

Hi Roger

Sandy is a bad Storm. There are so many if's and but's regarding the track, landfall areas, storm surges, wind impacts, rainfall levels and even snowfall. Already more than 40 dead in the Caribbean ... not a good sign.

Sandy is getting very big so the impacts of this Storm are going to be widespread along the eastern coast ... there are some places that are more vulnerable than others, such as New York if you can imagine how strong the winds will be for those living in high rise apartments.

The northern quadrant of the Storm is likely to produce the worst coastal conditions as the winds will be driving the sea and storm surge onto the coast. Then we could discuss power outages, the list of possible disruptions, threats and danger to life is very long.

So all I can say is that Sandy is nasty prospect that is going to affect everything along the east coast and possibly up to 200 miles inland ... as these weather events happen so rarely it is difficult to know exactly what will happen and, in this case, the interaction with the 'cold air' system to the north west has not yet happened ... it has the potential to be explosive.

Just expect the worst and I hope everyone is prepared for the punishment that Sandy is expected to dish out over the next few days.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Roger D. » Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:16 pm

Thanks Paul as always. Oh boy. Do you think it's going to be worse than Irene? My tree came down in that storm, but our small town did not suffer much more than that. From what you and the forecaster's are saying is that Sandy could be worse than Irene since there is a high probability that it could interact with that cold front and the sheer size of it.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:15 pm

Hi Roger

Irene hit the coast more directly. Sandy is possibly going to graze against the coast which is a much worse scenario as strength is maintained while the centre is over the warm seas and the surge to the north of the circulation affects a much longer length of coastline.

However, the latest signs are that Sandy is moving more to the east and then is expected to turn sharply west into the coast which is a better scenario ... but it is all up in the air really ... the main concern is Sandy's interaction with the cold front to the north west ... if this happened over the Atlantic we would have the 1991 Storm situation but the 'clash' between these 2 weather systems is looking more likely over land ... this could bring blizzards over the north east.

Unlike the 1991 Storm it is looking like Sandy is going to do more damage to land areas unless Sandy stays off the coast.

It all about timing and position and, still, anything could happen.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Roger D. » Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:55 pm

Thanks Sir Paul, I let you know how everything turned out...Well at least I have a good bottle of Pyratt rum and a case of coke...

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:36 pm

HURRICANE SANDY

With the centre of this huge Storm about 12 hours or so away from landfall it is quite concerning to see the news footage of large waves already breaching coastal defences.

But as the NHC say, this is such a huge and powerful storm that life threatening storm surges and weather conditions can happen anywhere over a 1,000 km area.

Sandy is only Category 1 and strengthening to a Category 2 but I must emphasis that it is the size of Sandy that will cause the damage ... the whole circulation is lifting and churning the sea over a very wide area and the waters to the north of the circulation are going to slam right into the eastern coast with the worst conditions expected around the New York area.

It is no wonder that everything is getting shut down. So anyone living within a mile of the coast in low lying areas would have to be tired of living.

As Sandy approaches the northerly winds are going to push the seas south along the coast which will cause considerable coastal erosion at the very least ... as the centre reaches land, the winds to the north of the centre will push the sea inland to varying degrees over a very wide area up to 500 km along the coast ... not that I am suggesting that it will be much better to the south where much of the sand and defences will have already been washed away as the sea steadily rises.

Then, as the cold air mass merges with Sandy, this will intensify the rain and snow and it will be around for most of this week.

Here's hoping the authorities are doing the right things and the affected populations are doing as they are told... it's going to get very rough over the next few days.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Roger D. » Mon Oct 29, 2012 1:34 pm

Hey Paul - Yes the authorities are being very proactive. In NYC they shut the entire transit system down @ 7:00 pm last night, the mayor also issued mandatory evacuations for folks living in low lying areas, Lower Manhattan, The Rockaways, parts of Queens, the south Bronx etc..In public housing in the evacuation areas, the city has shut the elevators down, turned of electric and gas etc.

In my neck of the woods, Central New Jersey, they have shutdown all the roads in my town and those around and declared a state of emergency, no cars on the road. The Governor issued mandatory evacuations for the barrier islands along the coast of N.J. and on Saturday they opened the flood gates in reservoirs in areas that are prone to flooding and have pumped water out of some of the lakes along the coast in the hopes that this will help catch some of the water to help ease some of the flooding.

The wind has picked up in the last hour and it's out of the N.E. at around 30 mph. The rain has intensified, but it's not heavy. I'm sure that will change as the day progresses. The latest readings from this hybrid storm is that the pressure is dropping, it's 946 mb, not a good sign with maximum sustained winds @ 85 mph. Current temperature is 56 º Fahrenheit / 13.3 º Celsius. There is also a 30 ft pine at my bedroom window!!

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 29, 2012 6:13 pm

I think you also mentioned that you have a bottle of Rum, Roger.

I'd get started on it ... stay safe and don't go near the tree!

News footage shows an incredible deterioration of the conditions around the coasts ... it seems that Sandy is going to be real handful so I hope everyone will be OK by the end of this week.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Roger D. » Mon Oct 29, 2012 9:48 pm

Thanks Paul. Already had a "couple". As I type, we are in the thick of it. It sounds like a train passing by outside. We lost a couple trees around the neighborhood, nothing serious, thank God. Surprisingly, we still have power. Seeing the pictures of the shore towns and it looking real bad. It's been reported that part of the Atlantic City boardwalk is gone! It's now a full moon and hight tide is a couple of hours away.
I think once this is over, I'm heading to Sweet, beautiful Tobago!!!

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Roger D. » Thu Nov 01, 2012 7:47 am

Hey Paul - I survived and still in shock. In my last post I indicated that things were not that bad and we had power - HA. Starting around 8:30 pm until about midnight, the wind really, really, really picked up. Just when I thought it could not possibly blow any stronger, it did. My windows were rattling and seemed as though Sandy wanted to suck them out, I opened them and sent my mom to the basement, she's 80 years old and she was completely terrified. I watched and heard trees snap, gutters, street lamps and a few shingles fly by, transformers blow. I never, ever wish to experience that again and that was a category 1 Hurricane, I don't even want to think about what a category 2 is like. Looking back, Irene was nothing, a stroll in the park. No flooding in my county. Estimation for power restoration is November 7th.

All of my neighbors are helping each other and most of us are meeting each other for the first time, so some good came out of this, I guess. I did not share the rum though, it's too precious of a resource.

I'm sure that you're seeing the devastation along the N.J. coastline. Those towns were really picturesque and now they're gone. I cannot even watch it on TV. All in all and thank god a lot of people lived to tell. Amen for that.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Nov 03, 2012 10:53 am

Well done Roger ... glad to hear you are OK and I trust you finished off that bottle of Rum.

I have to admit that when I was explaining what would happen with the sea surges I did not expect it to be as severe as it became.

News footage shows how the sands were washed inland and partially burying properties well inland.

It was the sheer size of Sandy that generated such power ... hopefully this is a one in 100 year event but unfortunately these severe and unusual weather events seem to be becoming more common in all parts of the world.

Glad your safe.

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