2014 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
Hugh S
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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Hugh S » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:58 pm


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Paul Tallet
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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:34 pm

Thanks Hugh

I had a go at that but I think it was being overloaded with interest and wouldn't work.

The Wunderground blog by Jeff Masters has a fabulous time-lapse shot of Gonzalo forming east of the Caribbean right up to when it arrived over Bermuda.

So far no fatalities but significant damage according to reports.

So, Newfoundland is next but Gonzalo will no longer be a hurricane by that time.

The UK Met has been issuing advisories about the possibility of Gonzalo causing mayhem during the Tuesday morning rush hour in the UK ... if so, I hope I can smell Caribbean in the air.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Oct 21, 2014 5:50 pm

Ah well, Gonzalo is still giving some pretty strong wins in the UK ... the warnings included the danger of fallen leaves ... I thought that was supposed to happen ?!?

Anyway, in Liquid Sunshine I predicted a higher risk of rain over Tobago from tonight. The Wave bringing this rain has coiled itself into a Depression so the rainfall area is a little more compact and the system has slowed down and getting a little sheared off from an easterly jet stream higher up in the atmosphere.

Nevertheless, this little depression could pack a punch and bring some thunderstorms. I have noticed an isolated Storm develop over southern Trinidad as I write.

So rainfall risks are increasing for the rest of this week.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:27 pm

As predicted ... Tobago is getting plenty of rain ... probably needs it.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Oct 24, 2014 5:41 pm

Still a bit rainy ... with very moist conditions for Tobago.

2 more Tropical Waves are on the way with some high moisture levels sandwiched between them.

The first Wave should arrive by Saturday night and this could bring about 2 high risk days of rain.

I will update on Liquid Sunshine at some point over the weekend.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:04 pm

TOBAGO AND THE REST OF THE WINDWARDS

The NHC is now issuing warnings on the system that is currently affecting Tobago and other Windwards Islands, stating that there is a less than 20% chance of Tropical Storm development.

Please refer back to my posts on Liquid Sunshine since last Saturday to see how things have developed.

The situation is as follows:-

There are 2 Tropical Waves, of which the first has passed Tobago and the second one will bring a short respite from the rain.

The NHC seem to be under the impression that there is a centre circulation somewhere north of Barbados ... as far as I am concerned, there is a large swathe of moisture producing heavy periods of rain from north to south of the Windwards. Within this area will be some localised extreme weather conditions such as torrential downpours, thunderstorms and squalls ... not everywhere will get these conditions but where it occurs it could be unpleasant and present risks for those hiking around rainforests or trying to have an enjoyable boat trip.

This will go on for another 24 hours ... the 2nd Wave could also bring localised Tropical Storm conditions but it will mark an end to the current wet spell and this is likely to be around Tuesday night through to Wednesday.

I initially thought that the rest of the week would be fine but, unfortunately, there is more moisture developing along the ITCZ and this increases the rain risk, again, for Thursday onwards and over next weekend.

Part of this is to do with the persistent low pressure that exists around the equatorial regions of our planet also known as the ITCZ or Monsoon Trough ... when this is near you then the weather can be sublime or Stormy ... it is very unpredictable.

The advisory for those holidaying in Tobago and the fishermen of Tobago is to take each day as it comes and not make plans for rainforest trips or boat trips and, if you do, do not venture too far from your comfort zones.

I would say this advisory applies until the end of next weekend.

I will post updates on any developments.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:36 pm

UPDATE

The system has organised itself into a reasonable circulation and spun north.

The NHC advisories have increased the chances of Tropical Storm formation to 40% over 3 days and it will be well away from Tobago by that time and probably threatening Bermuda.

But ... as I said in yesterday's post ... this is a brief respite for Tobago because there is a considerable amount of moisture churning itself across the Tropical Atlantic.

The rain risks are very high for the next 4 or 5 days.

This could be my last post for about a week because I am moving and I daresay that I will be cut off at some point before I can get myself set up again.

I will do my best to do a Liquid Sunshine over the weekend but advance apologies of this is not possible.

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