2014 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
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Paul Tallet
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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:28 pm

96L DISTURBANCE UPDATE

The NHC have still not upgraded this system even though there is a very clear circulation.

Anyway, as far as Tobago is concerned there was some rain but don't think this is over yet because 96L is sucking up more rain from the South American mainland so the risk of rain remains high for this weekend.

In addition there is a trail of thunderstorms across the Tropical Atlantic in the ITCZ so there are likely to be more periods of rain from time over the forthcoming week.

Just one Tropical Wave there which should arrive around Tuesday/Wednesday ...looking like a proper wet season now.

Enjoy ...
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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:34 pm

CRISTOBEL and 97L

Cristobel is now moving north and should reach hurricane status of the east coast of the US.

A trough has formed near Tobago, I mentioned the moisture threat from South America in Liquid Sunshine and it looks like Tobago will have some heavy downpours from the trough which is pepping up the moisture ... this could last 24 hours.

A new disturbance (97L) has formed midway across the Tropical Atlantic. Currently, any development is low risk but it could be better for this disturbance as it nears the warmer seas of the Caribbean.

I don't think 97L brings any threat to Tobago because it is tracking along a more northerly latitude than last week's Cristobel but there could be complications if the disturbance feeds off the moist air and energy moving north from South America.

I will post updates on the progress but this not yet look like anything to worry about.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:13 pm

Wet Season Kicking in

September is often described as the month in which the wet season peaks although I am sure some will make a good debate that it isn't.

It is late August and we have the following:-

1. Hurricane Cristobel off the Florida Coast
2. A new disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico
3. 97L struggling in the Tropical Atlantic
4. The ITCZ bringing a string of thunderstorms to Tobago
5. No less than 4 Tropical Waves
6. A very strong Tropical Wave about to leave Africa by this weekend

Tobago can expect plenty of rain for the next 2 days from a combination of the ITCZ and moisture moving up from South America.

The rest of the Caribbean needs to watch the disturbances ... it seems that all the countries of the Caribbean will get their fair share of the rain over the next week or two.

Cristobel will become a powerful Depression in the North Atlantic ... should miss the UK but needs watching.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 27, 2014 5:18 pm

The weather situation in the tropics is still very active and unlikely to settle down for at least a week.

4 Tropical Waves are spread across the Atlantic and a 5th and very strong one is about to leave the African Coast.

There is also a disturbance in the Gulf that the southern US states need to watch.

The 5th strong Tropical Wave does not look like getting across the Atlantic as I sense it should curve to the north if it develops quickly as expected.

But, although there are no significant threats to the Caribbean there will be plenty of rain over the course of the next 8 to 10 days.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:04 pm

The whole of the Caribbean is now getting plenty of rain which some Islands need.

2 Tropical disturbances, one in the Gulf and another in the central Caribbean, plus 4 more Tropical Waves trundling across the Atlantic ... this is what one might call a proper wet season and yet, despite the activity, conditions are generally not right for these disturbances to develop much.

Tobago is getting a short break before more rain risk arrives for the weekend.

On the African coast is the strongest Tropical Wave of the wet season so far and the NHC are already issuing advisories on this ... but I do not see this one bringing anything to the Caribbean.

Hurricane Cristobel is churning her way to Iceland and this is a blessing for the UK because it's eastern side will swing some very warm Caribbean air across the UK and northern Europe from Sunday ... so get your barbecues out ... it could be the last opportunity before the winter sets in.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Sep 04, 2014 3:45 pm

Disturbance 90L is now just off the African Coast.

This is part of a very strong Tropical Wave but the threat to the Caribbean looks low risk to me as I believe it will swing more to the north.

The weather has improved for Tobago but with plenty of Tropical Waves in the Atlantic, rain is not going to be far away.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:59 pm

DISTURBANCE 91L ... 10th Anniversary of Hurricane Ivan

The tropics (i.e.; the equator along the Atlantic) have cleared up nicely and, as reported in the Liquid Sunshine, the weather could be quite fine for the rest of the week.

The NHC is watching 91L. This system poses no threat as matters stand and is likely to curve more to the north if it develops.

Every time a strong Wave moves off the African coast it brings back memories ...

Yesterday was the 10th anniversary of the spawning of Hurricane Ivan that was about 10km away from being a direct hit on Tobago and instead hit Grenada with devastating effects. This Hurricane was kept to a more southerly latitude by a strong Atlantic High and conditions such as this can bring the unexpected and the unexpected is a hit on Tobago ... prior to this was 1963's Hurricane Flora ... a direct hit that caused widespread damage across Tobago, particularly to the rainforest.

Over the years, Tobago has experienced Tropical Waves and Depressions that have gone on to become major Hurricanes elsewhere in the Caribbean ... but this makes the weather for Tobago even more unpredictable as the transition from the Atlantic to the warmer Caribbean Sea is like a nice warm cup of tea with 2 sugars for a Storm that needs the adrenalin shot it requires to explode into a serious storm ... hurricane 'conditions' can occur within Tropical Waves, particularly where development is in process ... as is evident in the more damaging Depression that dumped 16 inches of rain over Tobago only a couple of months after Hurricane Ivan's close call.

So ... keep vigilant and never forget that, even once in 50 years, maybe twice ... Tobago could be on the radar well before the NHC takes the situation seriously, although their forecasting has improved significantly since 2004.

This Hurricane season has been uncomfortably quiet ... so far.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:47 pm

Tropical Depression 6 has formed in the mid-Atlantic but should not affect anywhere.

Another disturbance is off the Florida coast and this is of more concern as this could bring a lot of rain to Florida and there is some uncertainty as to how destructive this disturbance could be if it moves into the Gulf.

Otherwise, no threats to Tobago.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Sep 15, 2014 8:56 pm

EDOUARDO

This is this week's main feature in the Atlantic and likely to be the first Category 3 Hurricane since 2012 ... but Edouardo is likely to become stuck somewhere north west of the Azores due to the High Pressure block over northern Europe.

So no problems there and it is worth noting how active it is on the other side of Mexico in the eastern Pacific.

But the lack of Storm activity does not mean it is nice and dry and sunny ...

There is a procession of moisture moving across the Tropical Atlantic and the Saharan Dust influence is now almost non-existent.

The risk of rain for Tobago has increased for this week and another strong Tropical Wave is due to launch itself from Africa within the next 48 hours.

So short term ... ok, but past Wednesday it is very much high risk rain but localised, so place your bets and hope the rain is falling a few hundred miles elsewhere.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Elizabeth.W » Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:56 am

Hi Paul,
Just packing last bits and bobs before Wednesday flight, having read your latest weather report...do I pack wellies and rain coat? or a good book (and bottle of port) to stay inside? or the last option, go out get wet and dry off if the sun does appear? And is swimming in the sea during a storm a good plan? at least I won't get sunburn

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Ronald » Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:18 am

Hi

Be outdoors and/or on the beach is never a good idea if it is a storm. A heavvy rain shower is some different, but a storm can bring down a lot of rubbish from trees!
A storm can also make the sea level much higher than normally, that means, depending on what beach you are at, it can be a strong current out under the water, peoples might have problems to reach land again if the current is strong!

If you are on a beach, a big rain shower will make you wet never mind if you are under a big umbrella or not, if you are into water, you will still feel warm compared to be wet under an umbrella. But if it´s a long shower you will get cold anyway.

I use to say, never mind what it is about, when abroad one can not expect to do the same, and in the same way, as at home.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:22 am

Too right Ronald

You can also get sunburn when it's cloudy and you should watch your back when swimming in the sea and cover yourself with a T-Shirt at least for the first few days.

Right now, as expected, a Tropical Wave is bringing widespread rain to Tobago and the rest of the Windward Islands. I have seen flooding reports from Grenada but little other than a weather warning for Tobago.

I reckon this will stop by the time you arrive, Elizabeth, but there is still a medium to high risk of rain up until the weekend because the Wave is pulling some moisture behind it.

I would not bother packing wellies ... these are only needed for rainforest trips and you would not like to go there in heavy rain.

I think Tobago still has a lovely ambience when it rains, yes... take a good book and at least one bottle of Port.

Or get in touch with Ronald if he is there, he is very good company 8)

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Ronald » Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:46 pm

Hi Paul & Elisabeth

I use to be in Tobago between November and April, but this season will be different. At the moment I don´t even know if I will be able to feel the caribbean sun, but I hope so.
However, I´m on myTobago every week, so it´s possible to reach me and also via my e-mail, but I´ll not be in Tobago during November, that I´m very sure about.

But even if you will have som showers on-off, I´m sure, VERY sure, that the weather is much warmer down there.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:46 pm

Oh Ronald ... I will miss you this time ... I hope your sacrifice is worth it.

Let me know if you plan to visit the UK.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Ronald » Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:09 am

Paul,
My "Commandant" will first do some kind of training with other officers from T&T with start in November, after that she might stay and work in the area of Liverpool or somewhere else, if there´s a possibility.
She has a connection to the University there since the 90´s, and they are very helpful with peoples who has study at ther classes over the internet.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:20 pm

GONZALEZ

Gonzalez has become a weak hurricane over the northern windwards and is likely to bring plenty of rain to these areas before turning north near Puerto Rico.

This is no threat to any Islands from Barbados southwards although there may be some heavy seas in the Caribbean over the next 48 hours.

I am more interested in another disturbance about 48 - 60 hours away ... the NHC have given a 'low' risk warning of the development of this system. In yesterday's Liquid Sunshine I predicted that it could move over the Caribbean as an Open Wave and affect a wide area.

If this system develops then it is less likely to bring poor weather conditions to Tobago but I think it will struggle and I still expect some impact on Tobago from this system by Wednesday.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:11 pm

HURRICANE GONZALEZ

Gonzalez has strengthened and could become the most powerful Hurricane of the 2014 season.

Fortunately this Storm is moving away from Puerto Rico as it strengthens although the island of Bermuda could be having an acquaintance with Gonzalez, hopefully as a weakening Hurricane.

The system in the mid-Atlantic is struggling and the prospects of rain for Tobago from this system are reducing. I got my days wrong yesterday (thinking it was Sunday) so Thursday was the day I mean't but as I said, I sense the risks of this system bringing rain to Tobago are reducing ... still needs watching though.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:11 pm

HURRICANE GONZALO

Touching Category 4 Hurricane strength ... looking like a direct (or very close) hit on Bermuda.

Thereafter the models appear to be forecasting a track towards northern Europe as a vigorous depression so we will see and probably know more by Friday.

Bermuda needs to get ready.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:21 pm

HURRICANE GONZALO REACHES CATEGORY 4 WITH BERMUDA IN IT'S PATH

Gonzalo is the strongest Storm to form in the Atlantic in 2014 so far.

Bermuda is sitting directly in Gonzalo's path and is facing it's worst storm for almost a century.

The best scenario for Bermuda is if Gonzalo passes close to the east. The worst scenario is a pass close to the west as the winds on the eastern side of the storm are the strongest.

Conditions in Bermuda are already starting to deteriorate and Friday afternoon and evening is when the worst conditions are expected for the Island.

All we can do is hope that Bermuda is ready ... Gonzalo is coming.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:41 pm

HURRICANE GONZALO - DIRECT HIT ON BERMUDA

As I type, the northeastern part of Gonzalo's eye-wall is making it's approach over the south of the Island.

It looks like the whole of Bermuda will be in the eye of Gonzalo soon and the violence of the Storm will cease ... then, suddenly the violence will start again with winds from the opposite direction.

Despite the dangers of Hurricanes, I sense that it must be a very surreal experience to be in the calm eye of the Storm and to see the eye-wall thrashing all around you.

Gonzalo has weakened slightly and is now a Category 3 Storm, that means it is still a major Hurricane that can cause significant destruction.

Accordingly, our thoughts should keep Bermuda in mind tonight.

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