2015 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
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Steve Wooler
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Re: 2015 Hurricane Season

Post by Steve Wooler » Mon Oct 12, 2015 5:26 pm

Although I knew about the knew haze filter in Photoshop/Lightroom, I confess that I hadn't used or even looked at it. Your shot prompted me to do so. Wow! I did an aerial survey from a light aircraft back in 2007. The results were so poor that I haven't used any. What a transformation that filter has made. I can't wait for some spare time to go through my library of shots from that shoot - I'm sure there's lots there I can now use.
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Re: 2015 Hurricane Season

Post by Hugh S » Tue Oct 13, 2015 4:07 am

Can't wait to see your aerial shots!

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Re: 2015 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:21 pm

HURRICANE PATRICIA

I know this is a little off topic (geographically) but this years 2015 Hurricane Season would not be complete without recognising the awesome power of Hurricane Patricia on the other side of Mexico's Pond.

The Pacific has had an incredibly active Hurricane and Typhoon Season largely due to the effects of El Nino, the main factor being the heat in the Pacific ocean to quite low depths. This heat and energy has been piling up along the coasts of the tropics on the east side of the Pacific, namely Mexico and the western states of the US.

Conversely, the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean have had a very quiet season and this is also usual for El Nino conditions.

It reminds me of Hurricane Wilma that I was tracking back in 2005 when the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic had one of their most active seasons.

Wilma exploded from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 Hurricane in less than 48 hours north of Columbia and luckily only affected sparsely populated areas of Mexico before weakening, this was the year of the famous Hurricane Katrina, a much weaker but bigger storm that caused havoc in New Orleans.

Patricia has exploded even faster and become even more powerful, albeit with a small area of hurricane force winds spanning about 30 miles in diameter. But these winds have reached over 200 mph, so wherever the centre of Patricia makes landfall along the west coast of Mexico, almost everything will be destroyed.

In the words of the NHC ... potentially catastrophic.

Fortunately, Patricia will weaken rapidly as she passes over high terrain but there may be complications ahead over Texas and other central States as Patricia's remnants provide additional fuel for other weather systems.

Meanwhile, back in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic there is no sign of any Storm activity ... could the Hurricane season be over for the Atlantic? 5 weeks to go before the end of the season.

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Re: 2015 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Nov 07, 2015 11:33 am

NEW DISTURBANCE ... RAIN RISK

As we approach the last 3 weeks of the official wet season there have been a couple of developments.

One is in the Gulf of Mexico and the other is over the northern Windward Islands.

Over the last week, Tobago has had significant rainfall last week with the rainfall of the last 2 days due to the disturbance now centred over the northern Windward Islands. This disturbance is mostly a rain event across a wide area of the Windwards and should move north and possibly affect Bermuda during next week.

The risks of Tropical Storm development are low but the rainfall has been very heavy in some places and this is bound to have caused localised flooding.

Another quite strong Tropical Wave is about 3 days away so this wet period is likely to last through next week.

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Re: 2015 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Nov 08, 2015 10:50 pm

KATE?

The disturbance I was referring to yesterday is now approaching the Bahamas and the NHC is giving this a 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Storm.

As I said yesterday, this presents a rain risk and Bermuda would appear to have the highest risk of rain when this system swings north and then east over the next few days.

Another moisture laden set of 2 Tropical Waves are on the way to bring more rain to the Caribbean during this week.

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Re: 2015 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Nov 09, 2015 11:07 pm

TROPICAL STORM KATE AND THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER TOBAGO

Shortly after my last post, Kate formed just east of the Bahamas. This is a rather rare one and there seems to be a good chance of strengthening as the Storm veers round to the North and then North-East over very warm waters.

Could Kate reach hurricane status within the next 48 hours? Whatever happens it won't last long but Bermuda may want to monitor the Storm's progress.

If the Yemen can get 2 Hurricanes in 2 weeks then I suppose anything is possible.

As predicted, Tobago and much of the Eastern Caribbean are under heavy rainfall from the first of 2 Tropical Waves. The moisture is between these 2 Tropical Waves so when the 2nd Wave passes through on Wednesday the rainfall should ease.

This weather should not be taken lightly because some areas will get some very heavy rainfall with flooding and the potential for mudslides.

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Re: 2015 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Nov 10, 2015 10:44 pm

HURRICANE KATE?

Ah well ... I got a little tingle when I saw that the NHC are predicting Kate could actually become a Hurricane ... I feel blessed that they now agree with me :mrgreen:

Anyway, Kate won't last long as a Hurricane as she speeds across the Atlantic for her engagement with northern Europe.

The UK Met Office is now naming storms that affect the UK ... the first one to arrive is called Abigail and this Storm will affect Scotland with severe gales and vast quantities of rain from tomorrow through to Thursday. Is it Storm Abigail, just plain Abigail? ... or Bloody Abigail as the Scots would put it after hours of rain and wind which they are totally used to, of course !

So, I wonder what they will call Kate when she arrives next Sunday or Monday? Couldn't she keep her name rather than be called something Scottish beginning with B? Hmmm ... it could become enlightening.

Anyway, back in the Caribbean, lashings of rain would be the best way to describe it ... I am not sure when Tobago last saw the sunshine. This rainfall will continue tonight and tomorrow with an improvement by Thursday. I have more confidence in a sunny end to this week for Tobago.

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Re: 2015 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Nov 11, 2015 11:28 pm

DEFINITELY HURRICANE KATE

Hurricane Kate is racing across the Atlantic for her appointment with the UK and northern Europe. She will be bringing warm air so I wonder if the record breaking high temperatures in recent days could again be broken (after a cold spell on Saturday) on Sunday.

It is still raining around Tobago although it is becoming more showery and fragmented ... an improvement followed by a little more of the sunshine as the weekend approaches.

There is a risk of more rain for next week and I will post an update on this in Liquid Sunshine over the weekend.

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