2016 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:02 pm

EARLY HURRICANE ALEX

I promise this is not a joke.

Hurricane Alex has formed in the mid-Atlantic. At first I wondered if this should be tagged on to the 2015 Hurricane Season but seeing as the equally surprised NHC have given it a name beginning with 'A' it has to go on record as a Hurricane in the 2016 Season.

So, an early start to the 2016 Hurricane Season which is supposed to start on 1st June.

But don't worry in Tobago ... Alex is heading to the Azores and won't last long because it is travelling over colder seas. But could be a threat as a strong Depression in the North Atlantic this weekend.

There has been an indirect impact on the Caribbean as Hurricane Alex has pushed right through the Atlantic High, breaking it's influence, and pockets of moisture are building up around the Caribbean and this will increase the rainfall potential in most areas.

I think we can safely say that this year's El Nino has earned it's reputation as the conducter of strange and extreme weather around the World.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Jan 15, 2016 10:25 pm

HURRICANE ALEX

Alex has now been downgraded to 'extra-tropical' but that does not mean Alex is not packing powerful hurricane-force winds.

The energy from this Storm is expected to get picked up by a large depression by Monday. Back in December this would have been a serious concern for the UK that was in the pathway (jetstream) of a succession of Wind and Rain Storms.

Right now, a blocking High could send Alex' remnants and any associated depression northwards to the Arctic.

Alex, having formed in a cooler climate, is a signal of what could be to come in the longer term. The last Storm of tropical characteristics to come this far north was in December 2005 and this made landfall on the southern coast of Portugal.

If Global Warming continues then perhaps Tropical Storms may become more common above about 45 degrees north with the assistance of the currents that carry already warmer seas up the west coasts of Europe.

I can hear all the mocking laughs ... so perhaps this could be reviewed in 20 years if I am sill alive :mrgreen:

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

Saethon
myTobago Enthusiast
myTobago Enthusiast
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2016 5:56 pm
Location: Lübeck
Contact:
Wales

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Saethon » Sat Mar 05, 2016 5:13 pm

Hi Paul,

Just wondering if you do "long range" forecasts?

We'll be in Castara from the 21st. & I'd like to know if the sea will have calmed down enough for good snorkelling ;)

Thanks,
david

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Mar 06, 2016 2:12 am

Hello David

I would like to know who does long range forecasts!!

Yes I am sure there will be some good days but, seasonally, the sea is a little more heavy throughout the alleged dry season and especially from March/April when the turtle season gets going. Legend has it that the sound of the crashing waves attracts the turtles to lay their eggs on the beach.

There will be good days.

If the waves are banging on the beach in Castara you won't see much until you get right out to the end of the northern headland but this can be dangerous because the waves can carry you onto the rocks. But if you can swim that far there is a little stack that you can just about see at low tide about 100 metres to the left of the north side rocks. It's quite deep there but you should not be disappointed.

I would like to give you lots of other options about safe and clear snorkeling in other areas but your best option, if you are in Castara, is to keep in touch with Brian (Ali Ba Ba). He does 2 or 3 boat trips a week if the conditions are good and he knows what the conditions will be like ... he will not take any risks and I personally really enjoy going on boat trips with him ... You will find him normally in Heavenly Bay and, who knows, you may be staying in one of his nice apartments from which you have a perfect view of how clear the sea water is.

For future reference, the best snorkeling I have ever had in Tobago was in June and July ... the wet season is much calmer.

Enjoy your holiday.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed May 25, 2016 7:02 pm

DISTURBANCE NORTH OF BAHAMAS ... 25TH MAY 2016

An area of thunderstorms is getting together in the Atlantic and the NHC is giving a 50% chance of storm development within 5 days.

This area of disturbed weather is moving slowly towards the eastern US Coast and will probably bring heavy rain and squally conditions over next weekend and into next week. Florida should monitor this activity closely.

Unlikely to reach Tropical Storm status ... but who knows?

As this disturbance is no threat to Tobago I will only issue an update if there are significant developments or any indirect impacts on other areas of the Caribbean.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:11 pm

THE FIRST DAY OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON

And ... we have had 2 named storms already ... I was reporting on the freakish development of Hurricane Alex back in January as it carved a swathe of trouble through the Azores.

Last week, Tropical Storm Bonnie made an early arrival, plundering the east coast of the US.

We have a 3rd disturbance brewing in the Gulf of Mexico but we are likely to get through this weekend before anything sinister happens ... there is also a minor possibility of a further development just north of the Bahamas as a re-run of Bonnie.

The next named Storm will be called 'Colin'. Now this is bugging me because 'Colin' just does not sound very Stormy or Hurricane-ish to me ... (advance apologies to any Colin's that take offence to this) it's just that 'Colin' seems like a nice chap called Colin who wouldn't harm anything let alone go on a rampage destroying areas of the Caribbean.

Although, Wilma wouldn't seem Stormy either but became the most powerful Hurricane in the Caribbean in history ... there was something about Wilma back in 2005 :shock:

I wonder if there is going to be a Hurricane Steve? That would make it interesting. Just like Colin but perhaps Steve has been retired already :mrgreen: ... I will do some research and see.

Anyway ... a quick update ... I mentioned in the latest Liquid Sunshine that it could rain a bit this week and, for once, I am right ... both Trinidad and Tobago are getting a deluge while they are sandwiched between 2 Tropical Waves ... the risks of rain will remain high all week ... there could be a brief sunny interlude on Friday before another Tropical Wave moves in from the east.

Enjoy ... :lol:

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Jun 03, 2016 10:56 pm

COLIN?

A large area of thunderstorms east of the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico) look set to move into the Gulf of Mexico and develop in to a Tropical Storm.

It's early days but by Monday or Tuesday this could be a significant rain event over Florida. Not yet sure of this will become a Hurricane.

It is also worth noting that this area of thunderstorms are remnants from the heavy rains produced by the Tropical Waves passing over the south east Caribbean earlier in the week.

The weather is clearing for Tobago and it looks like a fair weekend ahead ... I will post the weekly Liquid Sunshine by Sunday evening.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jun 05, 2016 9:31 pm

TROPICAL STORM COLIN
TROPICAL WAVE BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO TOBAGO AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN


TS Colin is just reaching Tropical Storm status just north of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Most of the bad weather is to the east of Colin and quite extensive so the centre of Colin could be many miles away from areas impacted by heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Florida is in the path of Colin and expected to take the brunt of the Storm late tonight and tomorrow before it moves on into the Atlantic.

Conditions have been deteriorating in Tobago and the East Caribbean in the last few hours as a very moist Tropical Wave approaches. This Wave is bringing heavy rain way ahead of it and well behind it which indicates that the rainfall could be persistent over the next 48 hours ... flooding is likely in many areas.

I will post updates if anything significant happens.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Jun 18, 2016 11:05 pm

DANIELLE?

Of no concern to Tobago it appears that a Storm is brewing in the Gulf of Mexico. This is likely to affect Mexico only and I will post an update only if anything significant happens.

Tobago is under cloud and occasional rain due to another Tropical Wave ... I will post an update on Liquid Sunshine tomorrow.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:04 pm

NEW THREAT HAS JUST LEFT AFRICA

It is early days but a Depression has formed within a very strong Tropical Wave just exiting the west coast of Africa.

I note that the NHC are giving this a 40% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression or worse over the next 5 days ... this could well be true until some rather unfriendly conditions open up the circulation as it nears the Caribbean.

But this is worth watching because it is a harbinger of bad weather for part or all of the Caribbean early next week no matter what it's status is.

If the disturbance opens up again into a Tropical Wave we can expect widespread rainfall across most of the Caribbean next week. If it manages to survive the hurdles that lie ahead and starts spinning then it is likely to affect a smaller area and spin north ... but how far north?

I will post updates where there are any significant indications of what this disturbance may do and, no doubt, will cover this in next weekend's Liquid Sunshine should it be relevant to Tobago.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:27 pm

2 THREATS

In addition to the disturbance I discussed yesterday another disturbance has developed ahead of it to the north west.

In fact, the 2nd disturbance poses a moderate threat to the northern Windwards as a possible Tropical Depression or Storm Earl for this coming weekend. This system is moving fast at about 35 mph.

No change on the disturbance I covered yesterday ... this is moving slower and will not feature until early next week by which time it could have developed before being killed off or opened up by wind shear and saharan dust.

No threat to Tobago.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:09 am

EARL

As indicated in the last post, a developing disturbance is beginning to affect the northern Windward Islands.

The risk is mostly of rain which will be very widespread although some areas could miss it. But where it falls it will be heavy with around 4 inches expected to fall here and there.

For the next 24 -36 hours there is a small risk that Tobago could have some rain from the outflow of this system but it is areas to the north of Barbados that should be making precautions for severe weather.

As I mentioned, this is a developing Storm that could become a major Hurricane further down the road and this risk increases if the system forms a good circulation and avoids large and mountainous landmasses such as Hispaniola.

The other disturbance I have been watching in recent days has changed little but I will be keeping an eye on it.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:51 pm

ALMOST EARL

Not yet really got it's act together as this strong Tropical Wave races through the Windwards bringing some intense thunderstorms here and there ... a few areas completely missing the rain.

The rain is quite widespread so a lot of the northern half of the Caribbean will have some rain and even some areas to the southern extremes, such as Tobago, could get a little lick of rain from the outflows of this system.

Over the next 48 hours, if this develops any further (which I think it will), a centre will form somewhere over the western Caribbean and the Storm will become more compact, affecting a narrower area ... the outcome later this week could present itself as a major Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

In the meantime, Jamaica should watch this system carefully.

Still no further developments on the other disturbance that has been left well behind in the Tropical Atlantic. The NHC have stopped issuing watches on it but it is still one to watch.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:39 am

EARL STILL NOT EARL

It is absolutely obvious that this is now a Tropical Storm and it has been for at least 24 hours.

Additional verification is the strong winds being recorded, especially to the north of the system ... these winds are of Tropical Storm strength, so why are we not upgrading the status of this Storm?

The NHC are not naming this Storm until an aircraft is sent in to record more data. This is a bad attitude because by not naming the Storm and giving it Depression or Storm status deprives potentially affected areas of Tropical Storm warnings and associated populations of taking this weather event seriously.

Right now the strongest winds, in addition to heavy rain is affecting Jamaica, being just to the north.

I am pretty sure that if this system was anywhere near the US coast that the reporting, warnings and media coverage would be at highly charged levels.

So, currently the NHC are giving this system a 90% chance of becoming a Storm ... 10% doubt? ... Just name it and it could save lives!!

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:22 pm

EARL BECOMES EARL

What a joke.

NHC, as they have done in the past, will not classify anything as a Tropical Depression, Storm or Hurricane based on satellite presentation or if they cannot identify a closed circulation via data collected by a Hurricane Hunter aircraft (if they can be bothered to send one) ... well, this seems to be the attitude when there are dangerous young and developing disturbances moving around the Caribbean.

NHC know full well that even Tropical Waves can be dangerous and you do not need a non-closed circulation to discount the possibility that 50 mph winds exist somewhere along the Wave's axis.

This is highly dangerous because the Governments of potentially affected Islands or countries rely on the NHC as well as their local weather stations to issue warnings to the public to make preparations ... I think that on this occasion, Jamaica may have something to say.

What is the point in investing in ever improving weather prediction systems if you are not going to use it?

If this disturbance was going anywhere near the US you can be assured that alerts would have been issued everywhere, the President kept informed and hype, hype, hype !

It's true ... gangs of journalists convene on the US shores as a major Hurricane approaches ... not one journalist was in Grenada before it was trashed by Cat 4 Hurricane Ivan back in 2004, although that's another story about the lack of advance warnings ... Hurricane Ivan was a total cock-up.

Anyway, the NHC have finally named Earl and given it Tropical Storm status but the irony is that Earl was more likely a Tropical Storm yesterday than today because this system has become a little ragged over the last 12 hours.

Belize is next for Earl ... Belize is a delicate situation with it's vast reefs and tiny islands so hopefully there will not be too much damage.

The longer term prospect for Earl is no longer 'major hurricane' as it's expected track is more to the south combined with a reduction in speed so Earl may not survive the passage over the mountainous Yucatan Peninsula ... but if Earl does survive, the very hospitable Gulf of Mexico will be waiting with plenty of heat and energy for Earl to re-charge it batteries.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 03, 2016 9:32 pm

HURRICANE EARL

The NHC has just increased Earl's status to a Hurricane.

It won't last long but the very warm seas could energize Earl and cause rapid strengthening in the short time before Earl slams into Belize.

Some deaths have already been reported in association with Earl prior to Earl being officially designated a Tropical Storm and this just adds fuel to my argument in yesterday's post ... if it looks like a Storm, call it a Storm and then the onus is passed to the Governments of the Islands to take necessary actions.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Aug 15, 2016 4:44 pm

NEXT DEVELOPMENTS

The NHC is issuing advisories on a Tropical Wave to the south of the Verde Islands.

Although this disturbance is showing increasingly positive signs of development it does not seem likely to reach the Caribbean and may not even reach the US.

There is another Wave behind that is still over Africa that could be more relevant to Caribbean and US interests ... a long way off so we should wait and see.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 17, 2016 12:43 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6

The Tropical Wave I reported on is now a Tropical Depression and very likely will become Tropical Storm Fiona soon.

The Storm is tracking North West but there is some longer term disagreement between all the Models as to whether it may track back south or carry on with it current motion.

Either way, it won't be visiting Tobago or even the Caribbean and is not expected to reach Hurricane status ... but we will see.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 18, 2016 9:23 pm

TROPICAL STORM FIONA AND 2 MORE STRONG TROPICAL WAVES

Well, as expected, Fiona has formed but is of no threat to land for days and possibly never but her track could take her close to Bermuda.

It's what is behind Fiona that is interesting.

There are 2 Tropical Disturbances. One just south of the Cape Verde Islands and another one over Africa that has yet to move into the Tropical Atlantic.

The NHC is issuing watches on both these Tropical Waves which, to my knowledge, is the first time watches have been issued on a disturbance yet to leave Africa.

Both of these Tropical Waves are expected to follow a more southerly track than Fiona so the Caribbean should keep an eye on them ... particularly the one that is currently over Africa.

Watch for updates here.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3471
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:46 pm

THE FIRST STORM RISK OF THIS (2016) SEASON

Following on from yesterday's post.

Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling and may dissipate over the next few days.

But the first of the 2 Tropical Waves I covered in yesterday's post is posing a risk now for the Caribbean for the early to middle part of next week.

A Depression is forming at a very low latitude and it's track is likely to stay on a westerly direction as pressure from the north keeps it from spinning to the north.

If the disturbance stays on a westerly track then this could prevent rapid strengthening although the strengthening of low latitude storms as they approach the warm Caribbean Sea can be explosive over a matter of hours.

So, this one wants watching and I will post regular updates on the disturbance's progress over the weekend.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

Locked

Return to “Weather”