2016 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3407
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:05 pm

OTTO

The NHC have upgraded their 'Orange Cross of Doom' to a 'Red Cross of Doom' on the twirl I have been watching in the south west Caribbean over what must surely be 2 weeks.

This means that there is potential for this disturbance to develop into a Tropical Depression, at the very least, within 48 hours.

This is more of a rain event than a wind event although, due to the fact that Panama is a very narrow area between the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific, if Otto crossed that area then a stronger Storm could develop in the Pacific.

So it is Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and possibly Belize that need to watch this disturbance although it's direction is open to wide speculation among the Weather Models ... perhaps Jamaica should keep an eye on it ... it hasn't really moved at all over the last week.

I will post updates on developments should they occur.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

Simon Partridge
Tobago Business
Tobago Business
Posts: 116
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:54 pm
Location: UK COLCHESTER NORTH ESSEX
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Simon Partridge » Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:15 pm

Heavy rain in the morning on Friday, which despite my fears cleared and left us a fantastic afternoon of sunshine. Shower on Saturday morning followed by wonderful sunshine through the whole of Sunday and the start of Monday. Fingers crossed for the first of the week.

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3407
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Nov 22, 2016 12:04 am

TROPICAL STORM OTTO

At last ... Otto is born. There is some speculation that Otto could reach Hurricane strength before it ploughs through Honduras and Nicaragua, possibly Costa Rica could get a dose, quite rare so south.

Back in Tobago ... thank you for the feedback Simon ... the bad weather is to the west of Tobago and becoming associated with Otto.

The general Weather patterns are upside down with bad weather coming from the west and south and what is the ITCZ doing north of Barbados? It should be thousands of miles to the south at this time of year.

I hope you enjoy this week Simon. Rain risk is high from the south but when you look up at the sky it always looks like it's coming from another direction and then you fall down :mrgreen:

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3407
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Nov 23, 2016 12:01 am

HURRICANE OTTO

Well fancy that ... November Hurricanes are actually quite rare.

But it is even rarer for a Hurricane to affect Costa Rica at anytime of the year. Even Tobago gets more Hurricanes than Costa Rica!

Hopefully, this is the last throw of the dice from Mother Nature with topsy turvy Weather across most of the northern hemisphere and with weather systems traveling from west to east across the Caribbean and the Atlantic.

But Otto looks to be going from East to West and, although unlikely - in accordance with many other unlikelinesses that been experienced in the 2016 Hurricane Season - Otto has a small chance of reaching major Hurricane status (Cat 3 or above) as it approaches Costa Rica.

My Hurricane reporting on this forum goes back 12 years and I do not recall even mentioning Costa Rica before ... so this is rare ... and worrying, because Costa Rica could never be prepared enough and I really hope that this beautiful Country with it's pristine rain forests can come through the next 24 to 48 hours ... for some rare species, this could be a an extinction event.

Back in Tobago, there has been more rain from the south but not as persistent as recent rainfall ... I see the current situation staying as it is for the rest of this week.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3407
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:52 pm

TROPICAL STORM OTTO

According to the NHC, Otto has weakened to a strong Tropical Storm but still has an opportunity to regain Hurricane status before moving into Costa Rica.

This is so strange ... almost as strange as the Tropical Storm that made landfall in the eastern Algarve in Portugal a few years ago ... and a report I read recently, speculating on the possibility that Hurricanes could form in the Mediterranean :shock: .

Costa Rica is at about 9 degrees latitude, much lower than Tobago (about 11 to 12 degrees) ... so this factor should be kept in mind for the future for the 'hurricanes don't happen below 15 degrees' club ... and we should not forget Matthew from earlier in this 2016 Hurricane Season, just avoiding Tobago but affecting the Dutch Antilles and the north coast of Columbia.

Costa Rica is in for some rough weather over the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, back in Tobago, more rain has fallen over the last 24 hours and, again, much of this is from the south and while this weather pattern continues it seems that the trend is for reasonable mornings followed by rain in the afternoon or by evening and overnight as is the case over the rainforests of Venezuela.

I will post updates on Otto over the next 48 hours before I hope to close off this rather elongated Hurricane Season that started early in January with a short-lived Hurricane in the Cabo Verde Islands.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3407
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Nov 24, 2016 5:42 pm

HURRICANE OTTO

Otto is now making landfall on the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

As expected, Otto has strengthened to a strong Category 2 (marginal major category 3) and this presents significant danger to people and an environment that is not used to Hurricane conditions.

The rainfall is likely to pose the worst problems and all we can do is hope that Otto speeds up and gets out to the Pacific as quickly as possible.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3407
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Dec 02, 2016 12:05 am

END OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON

Hurricane Otto, hopefully, was the last Storm of this season that came to an end (officially) yesterday.

We are now into the Dry Season AKA Tourist high season, the latter of which is true and the former of which is not necessarily true.

As if time-keeping is relevant, High pressure is starting to build off the east coast of the US and over the north east Caribbean and, apart from a few areas of showers, the weather is looking fair.

Tobago is just a little too far south to benefit from the improvements in this fair weather but the rainfall and cloudiness that has affected Tobago is beginning to dissipate and it looks like the Atlantic High could be exerting it's control and will soon start to bring the trades that are typical of the weather patterns from now until April/late May.

I don't think this transition will be complete by this weekend so there is still a risk of persistent rainfall for the afternoons and overnight until early next week, hopefully sooner.

And, of course, by the time I arrive in Tobago a week before Christmas the Weather will be perfect :mrgreen:

Goodbye to the 2016 Hurricane Season and on this occasion I do not want to be reporting on an Atlantic Hurricane in January as I did earlier this year.

The 2017 Hurricane season is scheduled to start on the 1st June 2017 and I look forward to treating all the regular readers, critics and other nerdy Weather enthusiasts to yet another informative, highly charged and speculative season of blogs and NHC bashing from next June 2017 ... and hopefully not before.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

Locked

Return to “Weather”