2016 Hurricane Season

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:48 pm

MATTHEW, NICOLE AND A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN


1. Hurricane Matthew

Vague reports are coming out of Haiti about deaths, destruction and mayhem as the eye of Category 4 Hurricane Matthew moved over the far south west tip of the stricken Country.

The worst conditions are to the east of Matthew's 15 mile wide eye with unverified reports of rain in excess of 20 inches falling in 24 hours and astonishing localised reports of over 5 inches of rain falling in some areas in less than 1 hour.

The Satellite loops are showing that the interaction with land, albeit brief, has knocked out part of the western side of the eyewall which is the side that is starting to affect Cuba ... so Cuba could get off lightly but that does not mean that I am saying it will be pleasant there by any means.

The Bahamas are next and some of these Islands will experience the nasty eastern side of Matthew, however Matthew needs to regroup quickly if it has any chance of maintaining Category 4 status as it brushes the eastern coast of Florida later this week.


2. Tropical Storm Nicole

Nicole has been ignored due to the attention given to Matthew but this also because Nicole has little prospect of becoming a major Storm and does not threaten any land.


3. Tropical Wave for Tobago

Another Tropical Wave is expected to affect Tobago and the rest of the eastern Caribbean from Wednesday onwards.

This Wave is going to introduce very moist conditions and is carrying very heavy areas of rain and thunderstorms to drop over most of the Caribbean over the next week.

This a very large weather system and it is likely to bring spells of rain to Tobago for at least 48 hours before it clears off to the west by the weekend.

But there is good news ... behind this mass of rain is dry air ... so lets hope that this coming weekend there will be fair weather.

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:56 pm

TROPICAL WAVE UPDATE

Speak of the devil ... as soon as I had posted the last update (above), the NHC starts issuing advisories on the mass of cloud and rain approaching the eastern Caribbean.

As I indicated, there are some pretty hefty thunderstorms going off within this mass and I felt it was worth mentioning that Tobago is facing another period of heavy rain but the NHC have given this system a 20% chance of developing into a Tropical Storm.

Now this is currently an open Tropical Wave and this means that the rainfall will be widespread but there may be localised Tropical Storm conditions here and there.

So, once again, be prepared Tobago and don't plan too much between now and the weekend. The serious rain will start falling at some point over tonight and is likely to continue until Friday ... there will be a few breaks in rainfall but not for long.

I will post updates tomorrow evening on Matthew and this new system or earlier if I see any significant developments.

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:38 pm

TOBAGO'S TROPICAL WAVE AND MONSTER MATTHEW

The NHC are issuing advisories on a Tropical Wave that is now passing over Tobago but there is a very low chance (0%) of development over the next 48 hours.

It is overcast over Tobago and most of the eastern Caribbean with outbreaks of mainly light to moderate rain. This Wave is pulling high moisture levels behind it so there will be some heavy rain and likely thunderstorms generally ... few places will miss these and the risk of this is high between now and Saturday.

Hurricane Matthew ... I don't think Matthew is the right name, Matthew is a nice name but this Storm is pure evil. It should be called 'Monster'.

Matthew is following one of the worst possible tracks in the Caribbean, attacking Islands and countries that are poor and less likely to defend themselves effectively from Major Hurricanes like this.

The next phase along almost the whole length of the Bahamas is now underway and these Islands are low lying and with no defense against damaging Storm Surge, not to mention the lashing rains and devastating winds.

The forecasting Weather Models all now appear to to agree on a track right along the eastern coast of Florida for Matthew but a degree to the left or right could mean the difference between rain and moderate winds or devastation and extensive coastal erosion.

Matthew could get a lot stronger in the approach towards Florida and this area, plus the North and South Carolina's are making preparations for survival or evacuation from the danger areas.

This one will be played out on the media for possibly a week ... could it be more? Well some Weather Models say so, suggesting that Matthew could do a complete turn around and come back south to affect the already affected areas again.

That couldn't be true could it?

I will post an update when I can tomorrow.

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:40 pm

MATTHEW, NICOLE AND TOBAGO

As if Matthew hasn't sprung a few surprises, Nicole reaches Hurricane strength.

Nicole is not that far from Matthew and, based on Matthew's absurd track (to which I will come to later) there is the prospect of steering influences between the 2 Storms by the end of the weekend.

Hurricane Matthew has regained Category 4 strength and is expected to be a strong 4 or possible Category 5 as the eye of the Storm gets close to Florida's east coast that, I guess, is now largely uninhabited as a result of the Warnings that have been issued in recent days.

The various Weather Models are mostly in agreement on the track up the eastern coast of the US but there are some very small doubts in the future track that means that a slight move by Matthew to the west or the east could bring fundamentally different consequences for the areas under threat (i.e.; it could be just rainy and windy or it could be hell on Earth).

So, the whole of the US East Coast is on stand by for extreme weather and potential severe coastal erosion.

Next up is the future longer term track of Matthew, possibly as a weaker Storm initially, in a 'circle of doom' and this is where Nicole could come into the equation.

Weather experts are now examining the prospect that Matthew could do a full circle off the US East Coast, around to the east, then south and then south west back into the Bahamas, Cuba, Haiti ... to me this is improbable but possible and who is to say that Matthew won't re-strengthen if it makes it's way back into the Caribbean Sea and possibly the very warm Gulf of Mexico.

Even if Matthew fails to achieve these possibilities the name will already be retired based on the anticipated destruction on the US.


Meanwhile, back in Tobago there has been little change regarding the Tropical Wave that has now passed but the small Depression behind the Wave is about to start making Tobago very wet.

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Oct 07, 2016 7:22 pm

HURRICANE'S MATTHEW & NICOLE

Matthew is in the World Media headlines as it's strength decreases slowly and apparently fails to have the impact on Florida's eastern coast that was expected or predicted by the Weather Models ... I think I will reserve judgement on that until Matthew has completed it's assault up the coast.

Some media channels are posting Live Updates with minute by minute coverage of the Storm ... this is not new and I have been ranting and ranting about it for years although, to be fair, there was some coverage of the incidents in Haiti where the worst conditions were experienced. But why should sections of Haiti be cut off like this?

The death toll is estimated at 800 in Haiti ... It is regrettably very likely that this statistic will grow.

It's all very well (and positive publicity) for Charities to be singing songs in news bulletins about their relief efforts and how they need more money, but in reality the money spent by charities would be better spent on disaster management like, 'how would that bridge withstand winds of/rains of and at what magnitude ... and what are we going to do about it?' ... surely that would make relief efforts a tad easier (and cheaper) for Countries that are repeatedly struck by disasters like this ... am I being unreasonable?

When disasters occur we always seem to learn something new like, it wasn't a very good idea to de-forest because nothing is holding the ground together anymore and the valleys are full of sludge; or ... yes, it was a bad idea to build a town under an active volcano!!

Oh yes, we thought it was a good idea to construct a 1,000 room Sandals Resort in Buccoo, Tobago but we never realised that it would kill all the Fish Nurseries in the Bon Accord Lagoon ... funny old thing is that Mangroves protect land from Hurricanes too.

Anyway, enough of my moaning and whinging.

Matthew looks set to do a full loop and arrive back in the Bahamas next week which I would say is damned unlucky but, there is hope that Matthew will be much weaker by then.

It is too early to say if Matthew could revive by then and whether the conditions could be right for Matthew to go on another rampage ... we will see.

Nicole reached Category 2 Hurricane status but has since been downgraded to a Tropical Storm and could play a role in directing Matthew back to the Bahamas.

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Hugh S » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:05 pm

Dear Paul,

Really appreciate the regular updates - you always beat the US news reports. Sad to hear about the number of deaths in Haiti. I had heard much smaller numbers. Also, thanks for the reminder about the Sandals scandals. Keep up the positive moaning and complaining: its educational and timely.

Thanks, Hugh 8)

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 09, 2016 12:49 am

Hello and thank you Hugh ... your comments are really appreciated.

If you are around this Christmas you will know where I am ... please drop in, I will have plenty of Gin.

I have not seen much on myTobago about the 'Sandals Scandals'. I got wind of it off some friends in Castara and I hear that the democratically elected Government of Tobago is discussing the plans behind closed doors but that was a few months ago ... maybe someone with knowingness and wisdom should start up a discussion in the 'General Comments' section.

I am not sure what tourists can do because the project appears to be for the tourists and it would not seem likely that the type of tourists that prefer these types of Resorts would have any objections ... but sadly, it sounds like only these tourists could stop the project as the Tobagonians' voices are going unheard ... maybe there should be a referendum?!? I like referendums, we have been getting quite experienced at Referendums in the UK and it's great ... all you do is say 'no' to everything and then watch your Government debate why they should not do as they are told by the electorate ... it's so funny :mrgreen:

Just think about 1,000 rooms with perhaps 2,000 bodies at full capacity with all their shampoo, sun cream and shower gel with places to go and plenty of nature to upset ... imagine that !?!

Anyway, I have just remembered that this is the 2016 Hurricane Season Forum so ...


DYING MATTHEW AND MORE RAIN FOR TOBAGO

Hurricane Matthew is barely a Hurricane, yet still dangerous. The US Weather Forecasters seem to have been playing down the severity of Matthew judging by the complaints I see on some sites as Matthew delivers record breaking Storm Surges up the eastern coast, tonnes of rain and Hurricane level gusts some way inland.

It does appear that Matthew will still do the loop back round to the Bahamas but as a very weak affair. There is minor speculation that Matthew's remnants could kick off again.

We will see, it is still too early to truly estimate the costs, in terms of both money and fatalities.

No charities appear to be involved in the stricken areas of the US ... just Insurance Companies. The big money spinner is in Haiti ... and I will stop there before I offend someone!


Elsewhere ... more on this in tomorrow's Liquid Sunshine but there is more persistent rain for Tobago tonight and through Monday, possibly Tuesday as 2 Tropical Waves pass by with plenty of heavy rain sandwiched between them.

Looking further ahead, I am not sure if any of the Weather Models have picked up the quite potent little blob moving off the west coast of Africa. Perhaps it could come to nothing, but it is there and has 'next weekend' written all over it.

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:54 pm

ATTENTION SWITCHES TO NICOLE

Well maybe the attention switches to Nicole because even though Matthew is at the chain-stoking stage of death the media still focuses on the trail of destruction in Matthew's wake.

Something went wrong with the forecasting relating to Matthew and I get the impression that some areas of the eastern coast of the US got more than they were expecting ... even as a weakening Storm, Matthew was dishing out record-breaking Storm Surges all along the east coast and dumping loads of rain.

To be fair to the forecasters, Matthew did follow a diabolical track right along the east coast which is very rare but then this throws up new scenarios that everyone can learn from ... they got the track slightly wrong, initially overestimating the impacts in Florida and then underestimating the impacts as Matthew progressed north.

This was very difficult because only a slight move from Matthew to the east or west raised all kinds of unpleasant probabilities and so I think that generally the forecasters did a good job of it ... Matthew was a challenging Storm and I am sure everyone is pleased to see the end of it.

So, having focused on Matthew over the last 2 weeks, Nicole has been hanging around to the north east of the northern windward islands and being very boring.

But now Nicole's outer rain bands are affecting Hispaniola and some other areas such as the Bahamas that only recently took a fair beating from Matthew.

Fortunately, for the north east Caribbean, the rains should decrease as the Storm slowly moves north with a fix on Bermuda. Conditions also look good for development of Nicole ... this Storm may regain Hurricane strength and be a problem for Bermuda later this week.

Updates will follow ...

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 10, 2016 11:27 pm

MATTHEW AFTERMATH, BORING NICOLE AND RAINS OVER SOUTH EAST CARIBBEAN

Matthew has been hogging the headlines while Boring Nicole has been trundling around going nowhere. Nicole surprisingly reached Hurricane Status late last week and is now currently a Tropical Storm sending nuisance rains over the north east Caribbean.


Matthew Aftermath

Following on from my comments in yesterday's post, I think Weather Forecasters will have a lot to learn from Matthew, the track the Storm took and the impact along almost the whole of the US east coast ... I am sure that there will be some young Forecasters that will study Matthew as part of their coursework and hopefully contribute to the ever improving forecasting on Hurricanes. Matthew took a very strange track and I was particularly impressed with how the Models and the forecasters predicted Matthew's track along the southern Caribbean and the eventual sharp turn to the north where the real damage started.

It's the bit where Matthew started moving in an incredible curve that was parallel to the US East Coast where it all started going a little wrong and it would have been a massive achievement had they got the impacts along the coast right. Those affected in the US have no right to complain, I don't think the Forecasts could have been much better.

My only gripe is the 'closed circulation' rule which leads to belated classifications of Storms that could already be Tropical Storms ... this can be dangerous in the breeding grounds of Storms because development can be swift.


Boring Nicole

Boring Nicole is not a Hurricane yet but the conditions that lie ahead as Nicole moves north, towards Bermuda, will make strengthening much easier for the Storm. Again, it is difficult to predict how strong Nicole will be and the Storm is wobbling slightly from west to east and there is the possibility that it could go either side of Bermuda. But confidence is high that Bermuda will suffer a close or direct hit from a potential Category 3 Hurricane.

Nicole will no longer be boring.


Rains over South and East Caribbean

There has been significant rainfall activity on the south and eastern side of the Caribbean and all along the north coast of South America.

Tobago got rather wet and the rainfall was enhanced by a large plume of moisture moving north and off the South American coast.

There is more of this to come from both the east and the south so wet weather will be on the cards for Tobago for most of this week.

Updates on Nicole will follow ...

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:36 pm

GENERAL UPDATE

As expected, Nicole regained status as a Hurricane and is likely to strengthen to a Category 2, possibly 3, by the time the Storm reaches Bermuda.

It looks like Nicole's centre may pass just to the west of Bermuda although Bermuda may still be under the Hurricane canopy that extends about 30 or 40 miles from the centre. Nicole also has an impressive eye which is quite large and this suggests Nicole has gone through an eye wall replacement and a consequence of this is a much larger wind field and a growing Storm.

As Nicole approaches Bermuda the Storm will feast greedily on the cooking seas and atmospheric conditions that are currently very hospitable for a developing Hurricane, although I do not believe that Bermuda will be too happy about this having already had one Storm this season.

Nicole could be a serious problem for Bermuda if it reaches Category 3, Bermuda has previously managed ok with Category 2 and below.

The weather conditions for Bermuda will deteriorate rapidly from around midday on Wednesday and a sleepless night is on the cards for the residents. Nicole is starting to speed up and that is the good news, so hopefully clearing away from Bermuda by Thursday afternoon before the Storm races off to join the westerly commute in the North Atlantic.

Meanwhile, back in Tobago, it is getting very wet. The first of 3 Tropical Waves has passed Tobago and the 2nd Wave is knocking on the door.

This second Tropical Wave marks the front of a large mass of rain-clouds extending back east over about 1,000 miles to the 3rd Tropical Wave that should (and I emphasise the word 'should') mark the back end of this mass of wet weather.

It may not rain all the time because there are some breaks here and there but I am confident that the rain will be the most prominent feature of Tobago's weather for the rest of this week.

Additional contributions to this rain event will be provided by the Inter-Tropical-Convergence-Zone (ITCZ) which is a permanent low pressure zone around the Equator ... in addition, plumes of wet weather from South America will readily join the party in this rain event.

From time to time this rainfall could get very heavy so don't be surprised to experience some thunderstorms.

I will update on this and Nicole tomorrow night.

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Oct 12, 2016 11:00 pm

NICOLE

Hurricane Nicole has slowed down a little and this could allow this Storm to strengthen a little more.

Nicole is a strong Category 2 Hurricane and the longer the Storm stays over the cooking seas south of Bermuda then the worse the potential outcome ... a Category 3 Major Hurricane.

Another negative factor is a little skip to the east to increase the chances of a direct hit.

This could be a challenge too far for Bermuda which is known for it's ability to batten down the hatches and ride out most Storms.

A direct hit is potentially more damaging even if it is a mere Tropical Storm so if we add the Categories of strength and bring it up to Category 3 then Bermuda is facing a serious and life-threatening Storm tomorrow.

Nicole is approaching Bermuda from the south, so winds will pick up over tonight and then start coming from the south east and increasing in strength until the easterly wind starts to roar. Quite suddenly the easterly roar would cease as the calm eye of Nicole passes over Bermuda ... it is quite a large eye so the calm could last a few hours ... then suddenly the roar comes from the west.

So, enduring sustained Hurricane force winds of 110 mph (with higher gusts) attacking from all directions is very damaging, not to mention the heavy seas and several inches of rain.

It's not looking good for Bermuda.


Tobago has had plenty of rain today but there have been some decent breaks in between the downpours ... this trend should continue until the weekend.

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:03 pm

CATEGORY 4 NICOLE

Well .. I got it wrong last night by predicting Nicole could intensify to Category 3 as she was slowing and feeding off cooking seawater.

The NHC and others were predicting Nicole would stay at Category 2 ... NO !! Wrong !! ... Category 4 !!

Nicole is now back down to a lofty Category 3 and revving away from Bermuda to the North East. It's a little early to see where Nicole will go.

It is also early to see what has happened in Bermuda having had a direct hit from a Category 3/4 Hurricane ... this must be a record breaker for Bermuda and I hope there are not too many casualties.


Meanwhile, Tobago has had a good dose of rain again today and this risk continues. There is considerable humidity and moisture levels in the whole Caribbean with no Saharan Dust to reduce it, so showers and longer spells of rain can develop anywhere.

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Oct 14, 2016 10:00 pm

QUIET

After weeks of Storm activity and with Bermuda seeing the back end of Nicole it is quietening down in the Caribbean so I am going to have the weekend off before I post the weekly Liquid Sunshine on Sunday night.

The rainfall risks are still high although there is little rainfall activity around Tobago for a change ... just watch out for the occasional showers which could be very heavy but it's looking good for plenty of sunshine over the weekend.

But ... way over to the west, north of Columbia, there is some unrest with plenty of thunderstorms brewing ... something might happen here over the next week ... no risk to Tobago, but potential trouble for all areas in the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:54 pm

STIRRING

Despite the risks of rain (which are still high) Tobago appears to have had a super sunny day.

It could be ok tomorrow too but there is still a risk of rainfall under the current circumstances.

Hurricane Nicole is still a Hurricane in the North Atlantic and, even though Nicole will go through a transition into a large Depression between the southern tips of Greenland and Iceland, the Storm is expected to retain Hurricane strength winds for a long time.

The whole of the North Atlantic's coastlines will be affected by the swells generated by Nicole and Tobago should already be noticing an increase in the surf crashing on it's beautiful beaches.

If you are a person that struggles to contain one's excitement over looking at large Waves then you are not alone ... go to a place called Nazare on the west coast of Portugal and you will meet alot of people like you ... I doubt there will be much conversation because this is where the most very really jaw-droppingly highest Waves (in the world) in excess of 100 ft can be seen ... if you are lucky, you might even see one or two Darwinian Idiots trying to surf them ... !

... Nicole will be in the North Atlantic for several more days, pumping out swells across the Ocean so there is no hurry, Nazare's guest houses will probably be full this coming weekend, so take a tent in case :mrgreen:

Back to the Caribbean, the disturbance I mentioned in yesterday's post just off the Bahamas is producing plenty of rain that the Bahamas probably don't need. The NHC is still issuing advisories with a 60% risk of development in 5 days, although by this time the disturbance could have moved away to the North East or North West (I hope you are reading this Florida!).

Elsewhere I still feel sure something could develop in the south west Caribbean Sea and I am watching a small depression that has just left the African west coast.

I will post the next update if/when anything significant happens.

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:08 pm

RAIN

Tobago and the southern Windward Islands are being blessed with fine weather and the rainfall I was predicting covers most of the rest of the Caribbean.

Under the current conditions this rainfall could happen anywhere.

The disturbance north of the Bahamas that I have been watching in recent days is being given an 80% chance of development within 5 days by the NHC ... it is, sort of, connected to the very heavy rainfall across the Caribbean Sea that is edging towards the east.

Although this area of rain shows no sign of development it needs to be watched because it is moving slowly and could cause serious flooding wherever it goes.

Otherwise , all clear. I am still watching my south west Caribbean hotspot for development.

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Nov 14, 2016 12:45 am

SOUTH WEST CARIBBEAN

Well, nearly a month since the last Storm of the season.

i am now watching a little twirly area of weather off the east of Nicaragua in the South West Caribbean.

I can't see anything serious happening for a few more days but this area of weather is forming out of a cluster of severe thunderstorms that have been raging there over the weekend.

The western Caribbean should keep an eye on this because, even if a Storm does not develop, this looks like becoming a significant rain event.

I will update if anything develops.

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:59 pm

SOUTH WEST CARIBBEAN UPDATE

It seems that the NHC have picked up the twirl off the east coast of Nicaragua but they are not shouting about it with a 0% chance of development within 6 days and a 60% chance after that.

It needs to be within 5 days before the yellow cross of doom is shown on their Weather Maps.

Meanwhile, back in Tobago having had a decent day, rain is approaching from the east and there is alot of it trailing back along the ITCZ almost back to Africa ... the rain should set in tonight and could last a few days on and off.

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Nov 16, 2016 11:57 pm

SOUTH WEST CARIBBEAN UPDATE

The NHC's Yellow Cross of Doom was added to their weather map regarding the little twirl I have been observing off the coast of Nicaragua.

Low risk (20%) in next few days but after that is an 80% chance of development. So the Yellow Cross should become an Orange Cross of Doom soon ... or even a Red Cross of Doom :shock: .

If it does develop I have no idea where it will go because there is nothing to steer this system and it is possible that it will stay where it is.

All western Caribbean areas should observe this and Jamaica also need to keep an eye on it.

Meanwhile, back in Tobago, it is still mostly rain. No sign of a significant change (i.e.; dawn to dusk sunshine).

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Simon Partridge » Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:11 pm

Paul, read your post and thought "he's got it wrong" as we had a beautiful day yesterday. That will teach me! Started raining about 7.30pm Thurs evening with heavy rain, thunder and lightening through the early hours, brief respite at about 6.30am but now hammering it down at 8am. Island wide and can barely see Arnos Vale bay let alone Bucoo Reef. Looks set in for the day, however things change rapidly here, I hope.
I am told the Island needs it as reservoirs are not full, not sure that makes me feel any better :mrgreen:

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Re: 2016 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Nov 20, 2016 1:36 am

Unfortunately Simon, I think it has been raining more in Tobago than it has been around my twirl off the coast of Nicaragua.

Tobago, like the rest of the Caribbean, has needed rain but when it comes it is too often in extreme and short-lived downpours.

The rainfall over the last several weeks has been less extreme but persistent over longer periods ... very good for Tobago but not so good for visiting holidaymakers. But this is what you can get in the Tropics.

It still looks wet for Tobago but there are increasing breaks in the rain that has it's origins in South America.

Meanwhile, back in the south west Caribbean a potentially dangerous rain event is now brewing from the little twirl I have been watching for what seems like weeks. The NHC has upgraded the risks of a Storm and slapped an Orange Cross of Doom on the Map where they think the centre lies.

This disturbance is hardly moving and is unlikely to develop into a Hurricane (famous last words!) but, depending on where it decides to go, it could present serious problems for Costa Rica and Nicaragua as a slow moving and significant rain event over the course of this coming week.

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