2017 Hurricane Season

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2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:39 pm

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ... an early start

It is the 20th April, 41 days before the Hurricane Season officially starts and we have a new Tropical Storm (Arlene) in the mid-Atlantic.

This is the pesky and persistent Depression that has been spoiling the weather across most of the Caribbean over the last week to 10 days ... it is not currently a threat being so far out to sea but it is worth reminding ourselves that Storms like these can have impacts over large areas.

Tobago's weather seems to have improved over the last 48 hours but heavy moisture is still affecting most of the Caribbean.

Arlene is not expected to last more than 48 hours as she gets sucked up into the temperate zone and will probably provide some energy for a conventional Depression in the north Atlantic.

The NHC has predicted that the 2017 Hurricane Season will be less active than normal but that relates only to Hurricanes and does not necessarily mean it will be dryer or wetter ... it can't get much wetter than the 'dry' season in the Caribbean this year!

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:07 am

THREATS TO NORTH WEST & SOUTH EAST CARIBBEAN

Here we go ...

Of most concern to this forum is a depression that has formed along a Tropical Wave about 1,000 miles south east of Tobago.

NHC are giving this disturbed area of weather a 60% change of development to Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm status within the next 5 days. During the course of the next 5 days this area of disturbed weather is expected to affect the coast of Venezuela, Trinidad & Tobago and other Islands as far north as St Lucia.

Although there was similar occurrence of this in last year's Hurricane Season, this is still considered to be very rare and especially at this early stage of the Hurricane Season.

Nevertheless, it is on it's way and the conditions are good for development with the exception of this depression's close proximity to the Equator which makes it hard for Storms to get spinning.

So ... Tobago has already had plenty of rain over the last few weeks but should expect heavy rains and squally conditions during the first half of this week regardless of development. Preparations should be made for potentially destructive weather conditions even though this is currently a 60% risk and please note that even Tropical Waves can bring localised Stormy conditions.

I will post further updates.

Of less interest to Tobago is another disturbance just off the coast of Belize which is expected to track north to north east bringing heavy rains and winds to Honduras, Belize, Mexico, the Caymans, Cuba and eventually the southern US.

So ... an ominous and early start to the 2017 Hurricane Season and there I was, 2 weeks ago, explaining why June and July are great months to visit Tobago.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:00 pm

TROPICAL STORM BRET?

The NHC has issued advisories on a 'Potential Tropical Cyclone' (PCT) and expect a Tropical Storm to develop as it passes just to the south of Tobago with the strongest winds to the north of the centre (over Tobago) and then onwards over northern Trinidad and into the Caribbean Sea where the Storm is expected to be shredded by wind shear.

The NHC's ability to designate 'Potential' Storm development is a very positive development in their forecasting and very welcome because, previously, there had to be no doubt about the development of a Storm based on a set of silly criteria such as having a closed circulation etc etc.

So ... Tobago needs to be prepared ... weather conditions (that are already not that good) will begin to deteriorate late on Monday and the 'potential' Storm, which is moving quite quickly at 20 knots, is likely to peak overnight and into Tuesday morning before conditions improve.

If the track of the Storm is to the south of Tobago then expect strong winds initially from the north and then from the east. If the track is over Tobago it could create some damage as the wind will be veering from north to east to southerlies over a relatively short period of time.

Rain could be the main threat as Tobago has already had plenty of it but this Storm is moving quickly so the rainfall, while likely to be extremely intense at times, should not bring high totals although Trinidad is more prone to flooding and there are likely to be problems there.

As yet, only Barbados has issued Storm Warnings and the T&T Met Office needs to wake up ... I am sure they will issue warnings in the next hour or so.

My advice is that, as long as the Storm remains at moderate Tropical Storm status, things should be OK but don't count on this ... prepare for a Hurricane and DO NOT underestimate the potential of this threat that will arrive within 24 hours. Stay put or go to a designated shelter and make no other plans until Wednesday.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:03 am

TROPICAL STORM BRET? ...UPDATE

The disturbance has still not yet received the designation of a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm but it is likely to reach this status later today when a Hurricane Hunter mission takes readings and makes a closer observation of the Storm.

So far, the Storm's appearance in Satellite images certainly look like it is trying to spin and is generating intense thunderstorm activity.

The most positive outcome for Tobago and the other Islands in the path of this Storm is up to 4 inches of rain and strong winds bringing the risk of minor damage and some flooding. There will be a small risk of landslides and a moderate risk of life threatening conditions.

The most negative outcome is the possibility that 'Bret' could reach Hurricane (Cat 1) status bringing a greater risk of wind damage with higher risks to life. A few weather models are predicting Hurricane status.

So, the obvious advice is to take precautions based on Hurricane conditions reaching Tobago later today and overnight.

I am keeping an eye on this and will post updates later as developments arise.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM BRET?

Still not quite a Tropical Storm.

The outer rain bands are now moving over Trinidad and Tobago and the weather will deteriorate from now.

Latest models are indicating a turn more to the west which means that the centre of the Storm may pass to the south of Tobago and track right through the middle of Trinidad.

This is not really good news for Tobago because the strongest winds are to the north of the system.

I will post updates.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:48 pm

TROPICAL STORM BRET ... FOR SURE

At last, Bret is born.

Bret is (right now) giving Tobago a big dollop of rainfall but the centre of the Storm is adjusting more and more to the south. So far that the models are split between the centre clipping the south coast of Trinidad or making landfall over Venezuela.

This does not mean that Tobago can chill yet. The worst of the winds are around the north side of Bret as far as 80 miles from the centre and so Tobago and most of Trinidad will experience these winds.

In addition, this is a Tropical Storm with spinning rain-bands so there is a high risk of more rain swinging northwards over Tobago ... it could be a very wet night with potential flooding, especially in many areas of Trinidad.

Due to potential land interaction, the chances of Hurricane conditions are very low and Bret is not expected to survive if the Storm makes it into the Caribbean Sea.

Tobago can expect conditions to begin improving tomorrow ... in the meantime, stay safe.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:28 am

TROPICAL STORM BRET

Just a quick update.

In the last hour a very intense burst of rainfall has developed just to the south east of Trinidad and is expanding rapidly so that both Trinidad and Tobago could experience life threatening rainfall conditions overnight.

In addition, another expanding burst of rainfall is just behind this and both areas of rainfall are likely to merge and expand to cover a wide area that could include Grenada and Barbados (that cancelled Tropical Storm warnings).

As I have already said, the centre of Tropical Storm Bret has shifted to the south but the worst conditions are around the north of the Storm and Trinidad and Tobago will experience the most challenging conditions ... particularly Trinidad which is more prone to flooding and it's consequences.

In Tobago the risk of flooding and landslides increase because, although Bret is moving quickly, the rain bands to the north of the Storm are going to linger as Bret's power pumps his rainfall northwards as the Storm passes the Islands to the south.

Not a pretty picture ... I would welcome feedback on the conditions in the 'Liquid Sunshine - Feedback' Forum.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:32 pm

EX-TROPICAL STORM BRET

Focus switches to Tropical Storm Cindy that is currently threatening the coast of Texas. US forecasters are doing overkill on Cindy and very little about Bret ... so I will focus on Bret.

It is clear from the radars that Trinidad took the worst of the Storm. The location of the centre of Bret was way to the south and rather academic as the windiest and rainiest conditions spiraled around the north of the Storm and strong winds were reported as far north as Grenada.

Tobago took on some strong winds and rainfall but it seems that the rainfall was no where near the scale of the Trinidad deluge.

So far, I can see no fatalities and only minor damage in Tobago. As expected, Trinidad has had some severe flooding but, again, I have not seen any reports of fatalities yet.

This is a wake-up call because it is the second consecutive year that a Tropical Storm/Hurricane has come very close to Trinidad & Tobago and had a direct impact.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jul 03, 2017 8:07 pm

DON ?

As mentioned on yesterday's Liquid Sunshine forecast, a growing area of thunderstorm activity is slowly starting to spin out in the Tropical Mid-Atlantic ... in fact a depression has formed on the ITCZ.

This needs watching because the environment looks good for development if this area of disturbed weather can stay away from the dense Saharan Dust to it's north.

Currently, the depression is moving very slowly, giving it plenty of time to feed on the warm energy of the Sea and the, as yet to be answered, question is whether it will go west or spin to the north.

I think it will go north of the Caribbean but more will be learned over the next few days.

Watch this space ...

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:32 am

DON Update

The NHC have increased the risks of this disturbance becoming a Tropical Storm twice in the last 12 hours.

These developments reduce the risks of any Caribbean interaction ... but still too early to be sure.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:57 pm

NO DON

Now a Tropical Depression (No. 4). The Depression is being slowly killed by Saharan Dust and is unlikely to survive to the weekend.

The only risk is an open Tropical Wave which could bring some rain over the weekend.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Jul 18, 2017 6:57 pm

TROPICAL STORM DON

I have been posting on this over the last few days but my posts are not here ?!?

Anyway, Tropical Storm Don is now moving close to the north of Tobago and the rain is setting in.

This is a weakening Storm and hopefully there should not be any threats.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 03, 2017 7:43 pm

2 DISTURBANCES

Those that read last Sunday's Liquid Sunshine post will be aware that the Tropical Wave that I expected to affect Tobago on Thursday and Friday this week has indeed arrived.

At the time of the post, NHC were issuing risks advisories on this Wave but these were later dropped ... until now.

The Wave has now passed Tobago but not it's rains that are falling over a very large area. It also seems apparent that this Wave is developing into a potential Tropical Storm as it moves onwards and over Grenada and the ABC Islands ... the odds are quite low though. NHC giving a maximum 30% chance of development within 5 days.

Tobago should expect the rainfall to continue well into tonight.

Elsewhere, again referring to the 5th Tropical Wave in last Sunday's Liquid Sunshine (while it was still over Africa), we have a very strong Tropical Wave that is now almost directly south of the Cabo Verde Islands ... this one means business if it stays on a westerly track and avoids the dry Saharan Dust to it's north.

However it is worth mentioning that the NHC has been quick to issue advisories on potential developments this year and over the last 2 weeks has issued advisories and dropped them after a few days ... so a degree of cynicism on my part because I did not bother with those advisories ... the same could happen with this one though I would never discourage the NHC from being extra vigilant which is quite the opposite of their attitude in previous years.

NHC has given this disturbance a 70% chance of development within 5 days and based on the strength and direction of this disturbance I agree that something could happen even sooner ... so, of course, where is it going to go?

Well, as I have mentioned repeatedly in previous Hurricane Seasons, it depends if the disturbance takes a more southerly track which can reduce it's spin and this would present a threat to Tobago where there have been 2 close shaves already this season.

A degree to the north could make all the difference with Hurricane potential tracking towards the northern Antilles and possibly the US.

We will see ... so watch this forum for updates.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Aug 05, 2017 1:51 am

2 DISTURBANCES - UPDATE

The Tropical Wave that affected Tobago earlier this week is now producing very intense rains over northern Venezuela and Columbia. The NHC is issuing advisories that potential development is low risk (20%) but this rises to 60% after 3 days from now.

If development occurs, Nicaragua, Belize and the Mexican Yucatan Peninsula would appear to be at most risk, It is too early to be sure what will happen if the system makes it into the Gulf of Mexico.

The next Tropical Wave is starting to affect Tobago. This Wave is carrying alot of moisture and there are a few punchy looking thunderstorms around the system ... Tobago should expect heavy rain setting in tonight and continuing for most, if not all, of tomorrow.

Now for the main event ... NHC have increased the risks to 80% for the disturbance brewing to the south west of the Cape Verde Islands. All weather models are in agreement that this could develop, but into what?

There are signs that the disturbance is following a track a degree or 2 north of west. If this track is sustained then the centre of the system is likely to go north of Tobago and affect the northern Caribbean and then a possible landfall on the south east US Coast.

Well it's all a long way off ... watch this space for updates.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Aug 05, 2017 10:39 pm

2 DISTURBANCES ... WHAT THE ...?

Ok ... yesterday, we had a strong Tropical Wave in the southern Caribbean in disarray while dumping vast quantities of water over northern Venezuela and Columbia.

In the Tropical Atlantic, we had what appeared to be a 'banker' for development.

It's all changed.

I will start with the disturbance in the Atlantic ...

Whilst conditions appear marginally short of perfect for the development of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane, this strong Tropical Wave has struggled to get itself together. I can only think that the cause of these difficulties is the fact that 2 depressions formed along the Wave and somehow worked against each other rather than combining to become the strongest Storm of the season so far. As a consequence, the NHC have downgraded the risk of development to 50% within 5 days.

This changes things ... it still appears likely that this disturbance could develop, but the longer the delay the more likely the track will take a more southerly route and an increasing risk of an impact in the Caribbean ...

The Tropical Wave in the Caribbean ...

This has left high levels of moisture in it's wake and sporadic rainfall is still affecting Tobago.

Although the NHC has increased the risk of Storm formation to 60%, the satellite presentation indicates to me that this is already a Tropical Storm and not far off hurricane status as it's rain-bands have wrapped around it's circulation 100% and an outflow is starting to flourish around the north, east and south with a little bit of raggedness on the forward west side, probably due to a little wind shear.

So, Honduras, Nicaragua, Belize and Mexico are in the sights of this Storm and the risks will spread over a wider areaif the Storm manages to get into the Gulf.

In the Atlantic ... confusion reigns ... updates will inevitably follow.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Aug 06, 2017 11:20 pm

PTC 7 and the Mid Atlantic Disturbance

'PTC' stands for 'Potential Tropical Cyclone', a new definition introduced by the NHC this year which basically means that ... 'a Tropical Disturbance is approaching you within the next 48 hours but we are not really sure if it's devastating Hurricane, a Tropical Storm or just a blob of rain'.

It's a positive thing because it does show that the NHC is compromising on it's strict rule of not naming or numbering a Storm until it has a fully enclosed circulation. I often wonder how many times a Tropical Storm has affected Tobago but not been named until it has moved on.

A perfect example is the Storm that dumped over 16 inches of rain over Tobago in November 2004, sadly causing a number of fatalities and there are still some visible relics of that Storm today, 13 years later. Ironically, this 'non-storm' caused more damage and fatalities than Category 4 Hurricane Ivan that passed close to the north of Tobago only 2 months earlier which also, sadly, made a direct hit on Grenada and devastated that Island.

Seems like yesterday.

Anyway, enough waffling. The PTC I refer to is the Tropical Wave that brought heavy rains over Tobago last week and is now training it's sights on northern Belize and the Yucatan Peninsular of Mexico.

Last night it looked more like a Storm than it does now ... very ragged but with generous volumes of rain. Landfall is certain by Monday night but there is a some speculation about whether this Storm could carry itself over the landmass of the Peninsular and speed will be of the essence ... logically, the longer time spent over the Yucatan then the more damage PTC 7 will endure.

The majority of the almighty Weather Models are backing PTC 7's survival which would be bad news for northern Mexico because the conditions in the Gulf provide very welcoming 5 star accommodation for Storms to rapidly strengthen ... so PTC 7 has potential and could be the first major Storm this season which is exactly the opposite of what was expected 3 days ago.

This brings me to exactly the opposite of what the Mid-Atlantic Tropical Disturbance was doing 3 days ago. This once malevolent looking system is now really struggling. There is some discussion that it could dissipate and then regenerate in 3 or 4 more days nearer the north east Caribbean or off the US Coast ... we will see ...

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:56 pm

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN

Should I call him Frank?

As I type, the centre of Frank is just off the eastern Yucatan Coast and about to plough into Mexico.

Frank has been strengthening on the approach and could reach Hurricane (the first this season) strength at (or shortly before) the point of landfall. Interaction with land will weaken Frank but, when the Storm emerges into the Gulf on the other side of the Yucatan Peninsula, cooking seas and a welcoming environment could regenerate Frank and the prospect of reaching Hurricane status again cannot be ruled out ... with a second landfall in north east Mexico.

In the Atlantic, the once great potential is still waning and moving north. It could still develop depending on what lies ahead but I cannot see any threat to land ... things could change.

This has all played out well for Tobago, having had quite a deluge from Frank as a Tropical Wave, the failure of the Atlantic disturbance has opened up a void in the Tropical Atlantic and a quietness.

It is at times like this, during the 'wet' season, when the weather can be at it's best in the Caribbean with calm and clear seas although with stacks of humidity that can make it difficult to sleep at night.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:21 pm

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN

Almost exactly 24 hours since landfall and Frank is about to enter the Mexican Gulf in pretty good shape.

How quickly will the cooking waters help Frank to regenerate after this period over land?

Meanwhile, in the Tropical Atlantic, not much change.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:12 pm

HURRICANE FRANKLIN ETC

Frank is not officially a Hurricane but he looks like one and is rapidly intensifying at a rate that will reach Hurricane status before landfall in Mexico later tonight.

Within 24 hours Frank will be gone, torn to shreds by the landmass beneath. Re-generation is possible if enough of Frank's remnants reach the highly active Pacific Ocean.

Tobago is getting some rain from a Tropical Wave attached to the Mid-Atlantic disturbance that is showing more positive signs of developing early next week. So it's just rain for Tobago and this should be gone by tomorrow.

Another little disturbance has manifested itself just off the Bahamas but the NHC are only giving this a 10% chance of development.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:21 pm

TROPICAL STORM GERT ... is Harvey on the way ... and Irma?

Good old Gert, having bimbled along across the Tropical Atlantic, once showing menace but mostly timid ... Gert has finally wound up into a Tropical Storm and is churning the seas off the eastern coast of the US.

Gert is expected to reach Hurricane strength but is no threat to land although there is a possibility that some of Gert's Tropical energy could add some spice to the perpetual chain of depressions sweeping across the northern Atlantic.


Harvey? ... The disturbance I mentioned in the Liquid Sunshine post yesterday is similar to Gert. A large area of storm activity but it's difficult to work out where the centre will manifest itself, if at all. But conditions are ripe for development and there is alot of disagreement between various Weather Models about the future track which makes this interesting.

Much depends on where the centre develops, to the north or to the south of a large area of thunderstorms ... this development needs watching by all Caribbean interests ... hopefully it could come to nothing but don't count on it ... next weekend could be interesting.


Irma? ... This is a long way off, still rumbling over the African Plains and bringing welcome monsoon rains.


The week ahead is looking very active and I am sure updates will follow.

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