2017 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:12 pm

HOTTING UP

Hurricane Gert is still strengthening and starting a turn towards the north and then east. Probably won't last more than 3 days and offers no threats to the western Atlantic.

It looks like Gert will bring some energy to the UK next weekend.

The potential 'Harvey' appears to have split into 2 areas of Tropical Energy so this is getting interesting and the Caribbean needs to be aware of these threats, the first of which could arrive before the weekend.

Yet another Wave is about to move off the African coast and this one is part of the system that dumped all that rain over Sierra Leone, causing the flash flooding and the fatal mudslide that sadly claimed so many lives.

So ... the 2017 Hurricane Season is now starting to hot up as we approach September when the activity often peaks and I dare say there are a few updates to come.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:55 pm

ACTIVITY INCREASING

We now have 1 Hurricane (Gert) and 3 areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic.

Gert may reach Category 2 Hurricane status before joining the North Atlantic Parade and is expected to influence the Weather for the UK this weekend.

The 2 'Harvey' disturbances are struggling with dry air but the first disturbance is heading for the Caribbean and should arrive by Friday. Even if this first disturbance strengthens and becomes a Tropical Depression before reaching the Caribbean it is not likely to last long. I don't expect any direct impacts from this disturbance for Tobago. Maybe a little rain and surf.

The 2nd disturbance is in identical territory and likely to track a little further north.

If one of these disturbances develop into anything significant, they are very close to each other and the stronger storm could snuff out the weaker one.

A 3rd disturbance has now left Africa and this one is also attracting attention and advisories are being issued by the NHC. It is early days for this one and initial predictions indicate that this will be no threat to the Caribbean.

We will see ...

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:31 pm

HURRICANE GERT, TROPICAL STORM HARVEY AND 2 MORE DISTURBANCES

As Hurricane Gert dies, 3 more threats are marching across the Tropical Atlantic.

As I type, the NHC have named a new Tropical Storm - Harvey.

Harvey is bearing down on the Windward Islands in the eastern Caribbean. The outer rainbands of Harvey are over Barbados and there is a real possibility that Barbados could take a direct hit with the eye of Harvey passing over the Island early tomorrow.

There is some doubt however that Harvey could reach Hurricane status before reaching the Windwards and forecasting Models are in disarray over whether Harvey will reach Hurricane status at all ... much could depend on how much land-interaction occurs, should Harvey's eye stay over cooking waters, passing between Islands, then there is the possibility of a very strong Hurricane in the western Caribbean Sea over this weekend.

What's in it for Tobago? Well, I expect that the Storm canopy could extend as far south as Tobago but there is very little chance of any direct effects on Tobago, the wind may pick up a little, sea conditions could perk up and there could be the odd heavy shower but from the Caribbean side of Tobago I expect the sunsets will look very interesting tonight and tomorrow night as the sun falls behind Harvey's high Storm clouds ... that also depends to what extent the Storm Canopy covers Tobago.

Behind Harvey are 2 more disturbances. The first of these has a 60% chance of development according to the NHC and the track is more northerly, putting the Bahamas at risk.

The second disturbance cold follow a similar path and there is the prospect of interaction between Harvey and these 2 other disturbances and the outcome of these possibilities are extremely difficult to predict.

Lets just say that the whole of the Caribbean, Mexico, the south and east coasts of the US and Bermuda should monitor this heightened Storm activity over the next week.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Aug 18, 2017 10:26 am

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY - UPDATE

Tobago and northern Trinidad are under the southern rainbands of Harvey and it could rain here all day today.

The centre of Harvey appears to be over Barbados. I expect that Barbados and the windwards Islands up to 100 miles to the west and north of Barbados will get the worst of the rain and winds.

Any damage should be very localised, the main threat is the rain which could cause landslides and flooding.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:37 pm

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY - UPDATE

Harvey is now moving away and tracking westwards into the Caribbean Sea and I sense that this evening's Sunset will look good from Tobago and the northern coast of Trinidad.

General feedback from various locations in the eastern Caribbean indicate that the winds were lighter than expected but that the rain was very intense ... there are reports of flooding in Barbados.

Judging by the Satellite loops, Tobago also had a heavy dose of rain.

Anyway, Harvey has moved on now and has other places to go and other people to upset ... Belize?

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:26 pm

HURRICANE HARVEY ... BACK FROM THE DEAD

After visiting the eastern Caribbean as a weak Tropical Storm, Harvey was taken apart by dry air and wind shear in the central Caribbean, before crossing Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula as an open Tropical Wave.

Regeneration of the Storm was expected when Harvey's remnants entered the Gulf of Mexico.

Last night, yes, there were signs of regeneration and Harvey started to spin and was classified as a Tropical Depression with wind speeds in the 30's mph.

Since this morning, Harvey has intensified rapidly and massively (giving me memories of Hurricane Wilma back in 2005) and this just goes to show how important it is to fear the worst even if you are on the edge of the forecast warning cones.

As I type, Harvey is still a strong Tropical Storm but the intensification is so rapid that the status could be a Hurricane by the time I stop typing.

Texas is in Harvey's sight and ... here is the bad news ... Harvey is slowing down, suckling on the cooking sea waters that are energizing him ... I expect Harvey to become a major Hurricane within 24 hours.

Due to other weather influences around Harvey, he could come to a halt on the coast of Texas as a major Hurricane.

This is the big big question ... where will Harvey stop? And how long will he stay there?

Harvey's precise position could determine the difference between up to 10 inches of rain or 20+ inches of rain, plus the strong winds of course.

If Harvey's eye stays over the sea then Texas could have a big disaster. Harvey does not have to make landfall to harm Texas because he will be a pretty big Storm and the Hurricane Force winds will cover large areas.

The latest NHC update is not good either ... rarely does the NHC decorate it's forecast with superlatives such as 'this is concerning'.

This is not looking good ...

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:31 pm

HURRICANE HARVEY ... IN NO HURRY

Much of what I said in yesterday's post still applies although Louisiana could also be affected by the rains from Harvey.

Harvey has reached Category 3 status which represents a Major Hurricane and he is starting to slow down as he approaches the coast of Texas. It is at this point when the weather models may agree on what Harvey will do, where he will park and the rains.

Texas can expect devastation on a large scale. Anyone that does not observe the weather warnings is risking their life.

Widespread flooding is on the way due to rain and also due to the Storm which looks likely to dump vast quantities of rain over several days,

Regards ... updates to come.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Aug 26, 2017 2:55 pm

HURRICANE HARVEY SEEKING RETIREMENT

Harvey reached Category 4 strength as his eye slowly made landfall (twice) in Texas but quickly weakened to Category 1 strength.

It is with some irony that the Categories of strength are a measurement of wind speed only when there are other factors that we can use to measure strength such as the Storm Surge and, probably more importantly, Rainfall.

We already know that Harvey is going to cause considerable damage and fatalities and there is little that can be done about it, but the reduction in strength is based on wind speed only.

Harvey has much more to offer that Texas and parts of Louisiana will not be grateful for, such as estimated rainfall totals of 40 inches localised and generally between 10 and 20 inches over a very wide area ... and this is going to go on and on and on for 4 more days at least as Harvey stalls over Texas ... the potential scale of this unfolding disaster is enough to stretch anyone's imagination.

And then what? Harvey could turn back towards the sea depending on the various weather influences around him ... there is still considerable debate among weather forecasters and variations between the weather models about what could happen.

The whole of the southern and eastern US need to closely observe the weather because there is another disturbance over Florida that is showing marginal signs of development as well.

We should not forget that Harvey was a weak Tropical Storm that passed over the southern tip of Barbados about 10 days ago, delivering widespread rainfall as far south as Tobago and then being ripped to pieces in the Caribbean Sea. Harvey then regenerated in the Gulf of Mexico.

I don't think we will see another Harvey again.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:44 pm

HARVEY STALLED OVER TEXAS

The world media is focused on Texas as Harvey continues to draw very dense moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and dump huge volumes of rain over Texas ... the latest estimates indicate that more than 50 inches of rain could fall here as Harvey meanders, moving very little.

Whether Harvey is a Hurricane or weak Tropical Depression is academic ... this Storm has already caused fatalities and considerable damage to the Texas infrastructure with it's rains over the weekend and this is going to carry on for the rest of this week.

Harvey is expected to slowly move back to the Texas coast and possibly make a 3rd landfall ... the question of restrengthening is not much of an issue because Harvey is expected to remain a catastrophic rain event and interests across the southern US will be watching developments very closely.

As if this wasn't enough, the NHC has designated another disturbance off the east coast of Florida as a Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) and this is expected to bring rain and winds along both the South and North Carolina coasts over the next couple of days before shooting off to the North East and away from the US.

Harvey will probably still be over the southern US later this week as the weather models begin tracking another Tropical Wave that is expected to leave Africa tomorrow.

Updates are bound to follow ...

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:29 pm

HARVEY BACK OVER GULF WATERS ... HERE COMES IRMA?!?

Harvey has nudged south east and the centre is back over the cooking Gulf Waters. Re-strengthening is possible but there is little organisation in the Storm. The possibility of some strengthening should not be ruled out when you consider how quickly Harvey exploded from a Tropical Storm to a Category 4 Hurricane last week.

The Models are favouring a 3rd (yes a 3rd) landfall in eastern Texas or south west Louisiana by Wednesday and then Harvey should take a track all along the Mississippi River by the end of this week.

As I said yesterday, Harvey's strength is academic because the continuing rainfall is likely to be epic.


The PTC off the east coast of the US is struggling and may not develop but it will still bring plenty of rain to the east coast.


A few thousand miles to the east is the Tropical Wave I mentioned in yesterday's Liquid Sunshine weekly update. A depression is associated with it and this is starting to turn and the NHC has raised it's stakes, predicting an 80% chance of development this week ... could this be Irma?

It looks unlikely that this disturbed area of weather will affect the Caribbean but we cannot take that for granted ... I will post updates as the future of this disturbance will become clearer before the end of this week.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:55 pm

HARVEY TURNING BACK TOWARDS LOUISIANA

Harvey is currently over the cooking Gulf waters and is turning towards the northeast. He will be in central Louisiana tomorrow, still producing epic quantities of rain, and will speed up and meet his belated demise over Kentucky.

I have been looking at some footage of Houston and the city is completely swamped ... total shut down. Of increasing concern are 2 Dams that have been filled to the brim with rain and run-off. To avoid the Dams bursting on all sides a decision has been made to release the waters into a smaller area of Houston ... you could call this the definitive 'damage limitation' exercise with estimates of 3 months before the drainage of the Dams will return them to normal.

It is still raining and there is additional run-off to come and the situation is going to get worse before it gets better.

In due course, scapegoats will be fired, sued or both for one thing or another, but I don't think there was anything anyone could do apart from evacuating more of the Houston population ... but even then, the evacuees would have needed to travel hundreds of miles to avoid Harvey's rains and the petrol stations were mostly dry from the partial exodus from Houston.

The NHC gave fair warnings and expressed 'concerns' days before the Hurricane made landfall and it was forecast very accurately in my opinion, even the prediction that Harvey would slow and sit over Texas for several days.

I don't think there was much more anyone could do and the lesson learned is simply that a disaster on this scale does not happen often and, when (or if) it happens again, just accept it.



Over on the eastern side of the Tropical Atlantic, suspect 'Irma' is winding up just west of the Cabo Verde Islands having taken a move to the north. This track would indicate that this disturbance won't go anywhere near the Caribbean and this would be the wrong assumption to make at this early stage.

Weather Models are predicting that this will be a Tropical Storm in a matter of hours and that it could track south of west due to the Atlantic High building to the North and steering this disturbance along this more westerly/southerly route.

Early days ... I will post updates here.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:18 pm

HURRICANE IRMA ... WHERE SHE GOING?

Here we go again ...

Irma is a well developed and large Tropical Storm and is a virtual banker to become a Hurricane later today (Thursday).

Currently, conditions are good for development and if they stay that way then Irma could develop into a major Hurricane very quickly.

With Irma's position being just south west of the Cabo Verde Islands there is a long way to go and many hurdles ahead.

I mentioned yesterday that there is a risk that Irma could curve towards the south west due to building High Pressure to the north and the Weather Models appear to be split over a track towards the US east coast, narrowly avoiding or grazing the Northern Antilles, and a track more towards the south.

The southerly track is a worrying proposition for the Caribbean because conditions there are currently very moist and with cooking seas ... Irma is a big girl and has the potential to cover most of the eastern Caribbean Islands even as far south as Tobago.

Confidence in these scenarios are currently speculative but it is hoped that the forecast tracks will become more reliable as we reach the weekend ... Irma is going to start affecting 'wherever she goes' by early next week.

More updates will follow ... Irma could be dangerous.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:39 pm

HURRICANE IRMA ... LOOKING IMPRESSIVE (AND DEADLY)

Irma is now a Category 2 Hurricane and strengthening. I expect Irma to reach at least Category 4 and possibly 5.

Over the weekend Irma is going to go through a less welcoming environment of cooler seas and dry air but, provided no dry air gets through Irma's (now robust) circulation I don't see any weakening.

The problem is the track and the outcomes are very dependent on the track.

As I have previously mentioned, there is a prospect that building high pressure to the north could steer Irma on a more southerly track and this reminds me about Hurricane Ivan in 2004 which just missed Tobago and made a direct hit on Grenada.

I don't think Irma will go as near to Tobago as Ivan did but the Windwards from Barbados northwards need to watch developments very closely.

If Irma does take this southerly track then the conditions around the Caribbean are currently more than perfect for Irma to rapidly intensify, bringing widespread devastation spanning 300 or 400 miles ... it won't be just one Island affected and then Irma will move on through the Caribbean to affect other Islands and eventually Mexico and the US.

If Irma goes north ... brilliant, just a few heavy swells in the Bahamas and problems for Bermuda and the US which are much more able to handle extreme weather situations.

So ... the purpose of this post is to say that there is a good chance of a devastating Hurricane visiting the Caribbean early next week and even Islands (such as Tobago) that are a long way from Irma will experience indirect impacts such as heavy surf and heavy rain from the outer rainbands.

I sense that Irma's future track will become clearer by this weekend ... but for now, I urge all Caribbean interests to keep a close watch on this Storm. Nothing can yet be ruled out.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 pm

THE BIG TURN

Hurricane Irma is getting media headlines as the weather forecasters predict landfall in the US.

As I have said these past few days ... it is the track. Right now Irma is tracking more to the south west (or being pushed in that direction by high pressure building to Irma's north). This would give the impression that the Hurricane is going to the Caribbean, however the models and the forecasters are predicting a turn to the north west by the end of the weekend or early Monday.

The timing and speed of this turn is critical to the Northern Lesser Antilles, the Bahamas and Puerto Rico. I cannot emphasise this enough because ...

A late turn could be devastating to the northern Caribbean.

An early turn could be devastating to Florida and the other eastern states of the US.

Somewhere Between and it could get really messy.

There is no good news because somewhere is likely to get hit BY A major hurricane and it all depends on what happens over the next 48 hours.

Tobago is safe though ... for now.


While all the Hurricane Irma issues would appear to be the main focus there is another potentially more worrying (as far as the Caribbean is concerned) development brewing in the eastern Tropical Atlantic. The NHC are giving this a 70% chance of development within 5 days and, if it does develop, it shall be named Jose.

Many forecasters are expecting potential Jose to get ripped to pieces by Irma's wake. Fair enough, but potential Jose is not following Irma's path and, back in 2005, I recall 4 Hurricanes in the Atlantic that were quite comfortable with each other.

Potential Jose's track will take a more southerly route with an approximate arrival in the Caribbean on Wednesday or Thursday this coming week.

Once the highly charged question of Irma's BIG TURN is answered I have a sense that there will be more questions about what the potential Jose can bring later this week.

Updates will follow ...

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 03, 2017 3:48 pm

IRMA MOVING SOUTH WEST

Hurricane Irma has re-intensified to a Category 3 Hurricane and there are no factors to prevent intensification to Category 4 or 5. Irma will be a powerful storm.

I am only going to focus on Irma's activity for the next 3 days.

Of concern to me is the timing of the 'turn' towards the north west and an additional worry as Irma has tracked a little further to the south west than expected since my last post.

The most extreme southerly extent of the NHC's latest warning cone shoes a direct hit on Guadeloupe early on Wednesday morning. Now this means that the hurricane and tropical storm wind fields, not to mention the rain, could extend outwards as far south as Barbados. This is the scenario that all of us would wish to avoid because it means more widespread impacts in the Caribbean.

In or close to the centre of the warning cone are Antigua, Anguilla and the Virgin Islands and therefore these Islands are at most risk of a direct hit even if Irma tracks a little to the north of the warning cone. These Islands would still experience potential Hurricane conditions if Irma tracked to the northern extreme of the warning cone.

Generally, the expectation of the Weather Models is that Irma will reach her peak intensity at this time (Wednesday morning). Irma is expected to reach Category 4 and possibly Category 5. There is nothing at all to suggest Irma will not reach Category 5.

So ... my advice is that anywhere from St Lucia northwards and across to Puerto Rica could experience Hurricane conditions of varying degrees depending on how far they are from the centre of Irma.

Antigua, the Virgin Islands and Anguilla are at most risk of Category 4 or 5 Hurricane conditions.

The weather will deteriorate from around midday on Tuesday and then begin to improve around midday on Thursday ... Irma is quite slow moving so some areas will get 48 hours of Storm conditions.

Tropical Storm conditions would cover a wider area and so will the rain.

I will post more updates as the situation unfolds.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:15 pm

IRMA NOW A LETHAL THREAT TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
POSSIBLE JOSE TO FORM IN MID ATLANTIC
A 3RD DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF


Well, it is the peak of the 2017 Hurricane Season and so it would be appropriate to be discussing 3 different Storms at this time, but under the current circumstances, we are talking about 3 potentially catastrophic landfalls only a week after Category 4 Hurricane Harvey brought unprecedented levels of destruction and flooding to Texas.


Hurricane Irma

The weather models got it right when they predicted that high pressure would build to the north of Irma and force her onto a more westerly/south westerly track.

I started worrying when they predicted that the high pressure would ease away and a weather trough over the US would suck Irma north for a run along the eastern US coast. If you look back at the predictions as recently as 3 days ago, Irma was going to scrape the Northern Leewards, shoot up the eastern US coast and ram into the Washington area.

There are many uTube forecasts to back this up (unless they have been since deleted).

Most of the models have got this so called 'turn' to the north west fundamentally wrong and too much focus has been placed on the longer term US landfall and less consideration to the more vulnerable Northern Leeward Islands in the shorter term ... in fact, the models have been nudging and nudging to the south until now when we have Hurricane Irma going through the lot and a possible landfall on the northern coast of Cuba.

I am proud to see that the UK Met Model got this right!

In this case, it is not about Hurricane prediction, it is about not getting the basics right about other normal weather patterns such as a high pressure system's position and a trough can can affect the Hurricane's track ... these basic things have not happened.

Please note that I am being critical about the case of Hurricane Irma only. The forecasters have been excellent in all other cases since the 2016 Hurricane season but, sorry, the Hurricane Irma case is way off the scale ... yes, I agree that there can be a few hundred miles of error on longer term forecasts ... but not thousands of miles ... they have moved the landfall site from Washington to Cuba (and possibly Mexico next).

Anyway ... that's my moan done ... lets see what is happening now ...

I don't think there is much that I can add to my post yesterday other than that Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic and Haiti now appear to be firmly in the risk zone ... and then Cuba ... that's quite alot since yesterday but, as I said, Hurricane Irma's momentum was leaning south so maybe I should have been more assertive about my concerns.

Irma is now a Category 4 Hurricane and could reach Category 5 and the only positive is that the strongest wind-field is in the north east quadrant of the Storm which I hope will mean that the Northern Leeward Islands will get no worse than Category 3, unless Irma continues a southerly motion of course.


Possible Jose

The NHC have given this an 80% chance of development by next weekend. The disturbance is starting to get it's act together and poses potential problems for the more southerly Leeward Islands which it should reach by Monday or Tuesday next week ... I will post updates on this and more should be known by the weekend.


The Gulf

There is an area of disturbed weather in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It's not moving much but NHC give it a 50% chance of development. I don't think Houston want any more of this but, to be honest, 2 more hits from this one and Irma cannot be ruled out yet.

Plenty of activity to come I am sure.

The weather conditions in the Northern Leeward Islands will begin to deteriorate after midday on Tuesday (tomorrow). I hope they are ready ... I will continue to watch for this 'turn' to the north west!

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:16 pm

CATEGORY 5 ... DEADLY HURRICANE IRMA ABOUT TO TRASH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

Despite my moaning last night I am still quite shocked and awed at the sight of this Hurricane STILL maintaining a south of west motion (almost westerly) and it is going to go right through the Northern Leeward Islands.

The outer rainbands are extending as far south as Barbados and most of the Islands to the north are already well under the Hurricane's canopy and beginning to feel and hear those screaming winds.

The otherwise excellent forecasting by the NHC and the various weather models (except the UK Met) have got this one completely wrong, leading to inadequate warnings in most of the Islands that are going to be affected by Category 5 Hurricane Irma today, tonight and tomorrow.

They got it wrong on the one that really mattered.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:56 pm

HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE

It looks to me that the centre of Irma could pass over or around Antigua and Montserrat and I am sure that this is going to be very embarrassing to the NHC when it reviews it's coverage of this Hurricane that I believe could cause fatalities and damage of historical proportions ... there are so many Islands involved.

It's about time more consideration is given to these Islands. I say it every year. In the US you can run / evacuate ... in the smaller Caribbean Islands there is nowhere to run, nowhere at all ... you could try going underground but then you could risk being drowned by the Storm Surge ... these Islands have had little warning.

This is a Cat 5 Hurricane that is capable of flattening absolutely everything in it's path, even structurally sound buildings. Need evidence? Hurricane Ivan almost totally destroyed Grenada (and it's prison) as a marginal Cat 4 Hurricane in 2004.

Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique have now disappeared under the outer western rain-bands according to the Satellite Loops so conditions are now going to deteriorate from here onwards.

I am keeping everything crossed.

There is more news about new Tropical Storm Jose and 'Katia' could yet form in the Gulf ... more on this tomorrow.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:35 pm

3 HURRICANES; IRMA; JOSE & KATIA

This is a record breaking week, so I will start with the record-breaker ...


Hurricane Irma

Already in the 'one of the most' club and with the potential to be in 'the most' club in terms of lowest pressure, highest wind speeds, damage, fatalities and unpredictability.

Hurricane Irma's strength has been sufficient to possibly deny itself of any achievements since it has trashed almost every weather instrument in it's path, but Irma has attracted global media attention.

Initial footage indicates mass devastation and, so far, few fatalities although nothing has yet been heard from Barbuda, the first of many Islands to see the eye of the storm.

Had the NHC and the weather models got their predictions and/or timings right, these Islands may have had more time to prepare for Irma ... Irma did start to turn north of west last night but it was too late.

The next 'turn' is now being predicted ... will it take Irma to the east or the west of Florida? I am not going to comment and it won't really make that much difference, Irma is getting bigger and will remain a Cat 4 - 5 Hurricane for the next few days affecting a wider area ... much more devastation lies ahead and the vulnerable Bahamas are being evacuated now.


Hurricane Jose

Ironically, Jose is taking a track that could threaten the Northern Leewards again this weekend as, yet another, Major Hurricane of Cat 3 or above. Lets hope Jose stays out at sea but, again, this will be close and the Islands need to be as ready as they can possibly be.


Hurricane Katia

Deep in the far south west area of the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Katia looks unlikely to reach major Hurricane status but offers southern Mexico heavy rains and possible flooding. Moving slowly.

Updates could follow ...
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

User avatar
Paul Tallet
Weather Guru
Posts: 3406
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:43 am
Location: Yorkshire
Contact:
Great Britain

Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:14 pm

PINK FLAMINGOS

I am finding it hard to get any motivation to comment on Hurricane Irma's visit to Florida. Sure, the global media is glued to the unfolding catastrophe but the different perspectives are mind boggling.

Most media are showing live coverage and updates but unfortunately the US Media seems to have it's own interests at heart with reports of the fatalities outdated by over 24 hours (they say 6 have died! No ... 10 !!) and the Caribbean tragedy is way down the headlines.

CNN's website, for example, has the Caribbean reports about 7th on it's list of Hurricane Irma related news reports. The top 6 places are generally about where exactly the Hurricane will hit, State Emergencies, preparations, Trump stuff, the costs, Insurance and a very topical news story about the evacuation of a group of Pink Flamingos and other cuddly animals from a Zoo and where they will spend their time as Hurricane Irma does her stuff in 'stricken' Florida.

But no ... I was wrong ... apparently the US Media have discovered that there is an American person in the Turks & Caicos Islands ... OMG ! How the hell are we going to get that poor guy outta there !

I mean ... what is the world (or the US) coming to?

So ... on to the important stuff ... I will try my best.


Hurricane Irma

Video coverage of the virtual total devastation of some Islands is very sobering and you get a kind of a sense of ironic elation from those interviewed, with total wreckage surrounding them, proudly sharing their part in such a rare, unique and extremely unpleasant event. Their adrenalin is probably still on overdrive having successfully survived the Storm. I am sure it will get worse for these people before it gets better ... just imagine being consciously aware of your closeness to death for a sustained period of 24 hours or more.

And so Hurricane Irma has slightly weakened, not that it will make much difference, and is pounding the seas between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands (yes that's where the American chap is, unless he has been dramatically plucked from certain death and whisked away on a helicopter on lease to one of the US Media Groups!).

You can sense tomorrow's headlines ... 'How I survived the Storm on my own in .......'. I won't say anymore for fear of breaching exclusive copyright Laws ... but I can't help it.


Hurricane Jose

As if Hurricane Irma was not enough ... there is a moderate to high risk that Jose, that has just been upgraded to a Category 3 (major) Hurricane, is going to visit the very same places in the Northern Leeward Islands on Saturday morning. But Jose is taking a slightly different angle, almost crossing Irma's track before moving on north and probably threatening Bermuda.

Jose does not need to get any stronger to cause more damage but I think Jose could reach Category 4 strength and anyone that thinks that this Storm can be survived any more easily (than Irma) would be a fool.

There is hope that Jose could take a more northerly direction and just clip the Islands but unfortunately Jose' track is trending towards the west.

Not good ... I will be posting updates.


Hurricane Katia

This Hurricane is a cool breeze by comparison to the monsters of the Atlantic but still a Hurricane bringing mostly flooding to Mexico this weekend.


Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

Post Reply

Return to “Weather”